Survivor DG: Episode 12

The epic struggle between Christian and Mike reached its resolution, with the latter winning their war of attrition. The guillotining of Christian illuminated the savvy of the remaining castaways, as they coldly offed their greatest threat the moment the opportunity was presented. This classic season has played out like a George R.R. Martin novel. The most powerful characters have patiently pulled strings from the shadows to topple the world's most featured and charismatic leaders. As in Game of Thrones, the edit has devastatingly misled the audience, endearing us with heroes before stunningly pulling their trapdoors to doom.

We're left with six castaways, perhaps less charming than those they've demolished, but worthy of the final battle. Let's reverse power-rank them in order of their chances of winning.

6. Angelina fancied herself a power player before being humbled into a shapeless burden like the sacks of rice of which she's fashioned her identity. Angelina is a decaf Natalie - disliked and disrespected by all, crippled by undeveloped corporate social skill, abrasiveness and a lack of self-awareness. The difference between Angelina and Natalie is the former lies within three standard deviations of bothersome, so her competitors are willing to tolerate her presence. At this point her competitors all recognize Angelina has no chance of winning at Final Tribal, so each is actually looking to get her there.

5. Kara has a well-rounded resumé including challenge victories, notable moves and backstabs. She's built it without really pissing anyone off except her ex-boyfriend. Yet it's difficult to envision a scenario in which she actually garners the most votes from this jury. It's hard to identify a jury member who would give her the most credit.

4. Nick has been an interesting bob-and-weave player throughout the season, forming corny-nicknamed alliances he appeared to be on the submissive end of but wasn't. At times it appeared his mind was coming unhinged. At times his partnerships seemed to be flagging. He botched his idol in the last episode. He's never dominated, but he does have enough feathers in his cap to convince the Jury of his worth. And convincing juries is what Nick does for a living.

3. Davie has played a world-class game. He's crafted trustworthy relationships without compromising his purpose. He's performed at challenges without attracting a bullseye. He's turned difficult situations on their heads. He's played the short game concurrently with the long. He's a player who could function in any group with any season. Davie is a truly awesome player. His problem is he was on the wrong side of the Christian vote and he's been identified by Lord Varys as next to go.

2. Alison likely hasn't done enough to distinguish herself to the Jury, but there is still time. Could Alison get to Final Tribal as part of a late Female Goliath Alliance and then upend Kara? Absolutely. Could she go on a convincing run of immunities and blindsides down the stretch? Certainly. Does she have the stones to sever the correct throats at the right moment? Without question.

1. Mike is a masterful strategic/social player in the vein of Richard Hatch and Cirie Fields. It takes great finesse to call the shots while letting others think they're calling the shots but still get credit for calling the shots at the end. Mike has been the puppet master throughout. He's disarmed his opponents instead of skirmishing with them. Mike will consider who he should take to Final Tribal more carefully and skillfully than anyone else. But when you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die. Mike's time in the shadows is coming to a close, and he will have difficulty functioning out in the light.

___

A to Z have a humongous lead and I'm not smart enough to figure out if it's prohibitive. I am pretty sure it will be their team or ours, and we'll need Mike to win it. Possibly in a sweep. 

Survivor DG: Eps 11 (or Comcast says it's Eps 12, but whatever). This one -> So smart they're dumb

Guest blogger Doug here. It's late and I am waking up early tomorrow morning for a trip (in about 3 hours), but I had previously been told during a Top Chef fantasy draft dinner that this was a fairly strategically heavy episode, so my enthusiasm is high! Sleep can be sacrificed for good Survivor!

The episode starts with Nick pissed and regretting saving Christian in previous tribals. This is short-lived as the producers want to go straight to a family love reward challenge. Jeff says 5 words and we are there.

My take on the family interactions:

• Davie's mom is awesome and their relationship seems awesome, but her other kids have to be a bit hurt by her calling out Davie as her favorite awesome kid on national television. I have been liking Davie more and more each episode and wish I would have taken him in the draft because he is mostly awesome. Like his mom. And their awesome relationship. 
• Alison and her mom look nothing alike. We get no further details about their deal.
• Kara's brother shows. She tells the plain truth that she would like to consider some contestants as real friends, but you never know who is faking it. This is a core Survivor trait that really messes some contestants up. She concludes that the best part about family is you know they are really on your side. True story. 
• Nick's dad seems cool. Proclaims it's "What you give, not what you have." I like it, but we'll see if it helps Nick in the game at all. 
• Gabby's mom arrives. Nothing of note there, except she confirms how much reassurance Gabby constantly needs. 
• Angelina's mom clears the bushes. Starts off normal enough. Then there is a political call-out/reminder from Angelina that she sacrificed "her life" for rice for the good of the tribe. As if they had pre-practiced, her mom politician-ed for her right after this to the group. Quite a weird interaction given they haven't seen each other in however long. 
• Mike's boyfriend Josh arrives. They give each other a friend-hug that didn't look like they had been together for 6 years. Their choice? CBS? A mix? Seemed VERY restrained and a bit odd. 
• Christian's GF comes out next. He very awkwardly proclaims something about his beard's presence. Then awkwardly introduces her to Jeff. Then they took way too long to hug. Christian apologizes for how long the game is. He is lovingly awkward and gets emotional when she starts to walk away from him. Then he explains why and nails it. Guy is crushing this season and has to be a lock for Fan Favorite. 

Jeff pushes forward to the challenge like these family members didn't just get done with 19+ hours of travel. He antagonizes Angelina about not winning a challenge and starting in last place, again.

Angelina and Nick end up coming from dead last to "win" the chance to alienate some alliance members by choosing (1) person to join them in the family love reward. An easy choice of Davie is made. Then just like my and Zack's childhood soccer coach telling the team to take "1 more lap" around the field (over and over again, damn liar), Jeff tells the winning pair that they get to choose (1) more person (again) and kinda surprisingly another seemingly easy choice of Mike is made. Angelina says she "loves" Mike as he accepts the reward. No one believes her. Christian legitimately tells everyone to have a great time in the reward as the "losers" family members vanish and the barge feast begins. Everyone believes him. 

Barg feast - Lots of final 4 talk. Davie doesn't buy it and immediately identifies himself as #4 of the "final four". Back at camp, Gabby thinks Christian is playing her, based off his interaction with his GF. Gabby starts talking about bouncing Christian to "Slay her #1 ally" and make a big move solely for herself.

Immunitty challenge time - balance on beam with a pole / bucket of water overhead, etc.

• Mike out first
• Angelina doing some weird breathing 
• After Angelina is out she starts helping Nick
• Christian awesomely calls Angelina and posse out and gets no help
• Davie gets beat by a damn fly (probably paid off by Angelina somehow)
• Kara wins and is astoundingly good at challenges that she doesn't have to move much

Now the post immunity challenge scramble:

• Alison calls out how hard it is to get Christian out
• Gabby correctly says shes needs to get Christian out 
• Nick is pissed about Christian betraying him and says he needs to get Christian out because he is "dead to him"
• Davie is the spoiler. Wants Christian as a sheild. 
• I love that Davie is playing his own game, but he is drawing dead against Christian and this strategy only makes sense if he plans to eliminate Christian later in the game
• Christian pretends to repair the relationship with Nick

And immediately to Tribal and more bullet points as I realize how little sleep I will be getting tonight:

• Standard Jeff questions
• Nothing super important except pretty much every jury member confirms that they are voting for Christian for the win 
• Christian stares down his competitors after the vote and plays his idol. Boss move. 
• The jury again confirms he is crushing (and they are right) 

Gabby goes home after the correct idol play. Mike and Angelina's votes against Gabby win out over Christian's vote against Alison. Alison survives another tribal where she gets the 2nd most votes needed to send someone home. 7 left.

The "So smart they're dumb" episode title aptly applies to one of the people it was placed upon, but not the other. "Awkward" wins out over "only recently found confidence".

I'd give my analysis of the final 7 but it is time to go to bed. I will end this blog with 2 things (and more bullets):

• The previews for next episode now have me worried about Christian actually getting voted out because they showed everyone else BUT him getting their name thrown out
• Potential props to Mike for telling Nick TO HIS FACE that he has to go home next 
• My DoW vote goes to:
• Anyone that influenced Mike and his BF's interaction negatively
• Carl's glare
• But for the actual points, Angelina. Because. She. Sucks. 

I'm out. Viva Mexico. Thomas, kill the next blog post! 

***Reminder to Michal to double check the Dan idol play points and make sure they weren't double counted. ***

Survivor DG: Eps 9 & 10

A couple of big episodes to get into here, and I'm probably not going to do it justice. But we can at least cover the major points:

Episode 9's Tribal Council: Terrible decision-making by the Davids to use the vote steal AND the idol nullifier. If  they had the advantage in votes and knew that Dan was going to play his idol, then just vote out a different Goliath! Dan misplays his idol and Alison or Mike goes home. Everyone wins... except, you know, Dan and Mike/Alison. I think that Carl just couldn't sit on that advantage any longer. It was burning a hole in his pocket and he just couldn't wait to show everyone what a badass strategizer he was.

The idol nullifier is an advantage that is so powerful you really need to hold on to that puppy until you're down to 5-6 players. I might even give you 7 players left. But playing it anytime outside of that range is a misplay no matter the outcome.

Gabby: As soon as Dan went home Gabby jumped at the chance to become the most intolerable castaway left on the island. I agree with Moon that when Angelina went on that sexism rant it was a misinterpretation of the situation. (I also think that Angelina self-perception is MILES apart from how the rest of the world sees her. It's fascinating to watch. I imagine it's hard to live with on a tiny island though.) Gabby is doing the exact same thing now too. She thinks that everyone's just being sexist & labeling her as an emotional blubbering player because she's a woman. Nope. They are labeling you as that because that's exactly what you are.

Alec: I'll miss you man!! If you don't come back for an All-Stars season I will make Bag tweet Probst to complain. And maybe I will too. This is a guy who so truly loves the game of Survivor that he almost passed out rather than risk going home. And the thought of going home when NOT being blindsided was one of the most upsetting things in his life. He's a complete Survivor package and will be at the top of any of my draft lists if/when he returns.

The Blog: Is starting to get hard to keep up with again. (I'm so predictable.) Any chance someone can guest-blog next week? Moon? Also, big kudos to all the comments from the last post. I couldn't agree more (with almost all of them). Patrick Stewart applauds Alec, but also you!

Food Rewards: I appreciate that these people are starving out there. But I think people need to be more cautious around these food rewards. Too much boozing, and far too much barfing in this episode! Maybe winning these challenges isn't actually a reward if you're just going to verbal & literal diarrhea all over the place afterwards....

Moon, if you ever goes on Survivor I'll be cheering for you to lose all these late-game reward challenges. Just looking out for you.

The Ladies: Were outnumbered two to one after Elizabeth was sent home post-merge. Things were looking grim for the #MeToo movement. But now we're all even again with a 4:4 ratio. Count me surprised, I thought it'd be an all-male cast going into the final 5. Does a woman have a decent chance to win the whole thing? Errrm, outlook not good....

Power Rankings:

8. Angelina: the albatross of the season. If she joins your alliance it's a sure thing that it'll all fall apart the next day.

7. Gabby: see above. And even if you believe she'll successfully back-stab Christian per the previews, even that wouldn't be enough for her to earn respect from her fellow castaways. (Also I don't see that happening.)

6. Davie: he's having some good moments & personal triumphs, but this guy is playing far too simple a game to have a chance to win. Would be a decent person to bring with you to final tribal though...

5. Kara: Kara's impressed me over the last few episodes. She's been playing a good social game, trying to see all her options. She's been in a bad position lately but hasn't been marked as a target once. I'm rooting for her!

4. Nick: Not a good sign that he wasn't included in the Carl vote-out decision. His closest allies used to be Christian & Mike, so what happened there? Still, I think he's adaptable & could rally a counter-strike. Plus he's got that idol that only he & Davie know about.

3. Alison: One of the most well-connected players left. I think her challenge prowess is hugely overrated, but her social game may be underrated. I love that "the timing just feels right" for this David/Goliath blurred line (yuck, please stop saying this Survivor) alliance now that Alison is the one in danger. When it was David after David on the chopping block there was no movement. But now... well, now is obviously the right time for Alison to prove her loyalty to Christian & Gabby! How on earth did Gabby & Christian buy that?

2. Mike: Still considering all his options & I'd argue the most strategic player left in the game now that Alec is gone. I think he's playing a little too emotional as demonstrated by voting out Annoying Carl over Alison the Threat. But this could be the result of more than that, including a) thinking through the pecking order either way and/or b) that "trust the threat you know" mentality that the Goliaths have been stuck in all season.

1. Christian: I don't think he's as strategically savvy as everyone thinks he is. But I do think he's playing a stellar social game & I loved his attitude during the 6-hour long endurance challenge. Willpower at this point in the season could be all it takes to win the whole game.


DOW:
Angelina. You sure are a piece of work.

Survivor DG: Episodes 7 & 8

It's a post-merge world in Survivor "and now the real game begins" (said at least 1 castaway on every season of Survivor ever). These were a pretty interesting couple episodes, with a few of my highlights recounted here:

• Elizabeth v. Angelina = what a n00b-fest. Elizabeth told Gabby that she'd save herself by blowing Angelina's secret at Tribal Council and Gabby totally backed that up. If Gabby knows anything about Survivor (and I'm not sure she does), sound advice here would have been to make these kinds of moves on the beach. Vote changes once you're at Tribal Council almost never happen. I'd assumed that Gabby encouraged this because it made her life easier - she supported a friend while also advancing her own plans with her Stealth Force 6 Alliance. But I think I was giving Gabby too much credit.
  
• Alec. Dude's just crushing it. Everyone both trusts & distrusts him at the same time (how is that possible?), he has the most alliances, the most options for game play, a lot of flexibility, etc. Also he's a challenge beast. His current point earnings don't fully reflect how valuable this pony is. That plus his fabulous Probst lip-syncing last episode makes me seriously regret not drafting him. He should be a shoo-in if they ever do an All Stars season again - are you listening Survivor producers??
  
• Gabby is a disaster. But Dan is the wooooorst.
  
• Mayhem! It's a lawless world out there now that the resident Mayor was deposed in a shocking bout of collateral damage. Did not see that coming.
  
• The Davids love each other. Seriously, I'm not sure they're playing optimal game strategy. I think they really bonded during the first week of the show (with the exception of Elizabeth) & are just plain looking out for each other. I'm not saying that Davie's save of Christian was the wrong move -- actually I think it was brilliant.
  
• Trending up. Kara looked like a beast in the reward challenge, and if she finally realizes that Dan is dragging her down I'd be pretty thrilled about her.
  
• Trending down. Not sure Mike fully thought through the implications of turning on Christian & what the consequences would be if he lost. I'm still not sure what those consequences will be myself, but it should be a fun next episode when we watch the fall out!

DOW:

Dan Douchechacho. I just can't stand you, bro. So glad you lost points for that idol mis-play.

Survivor DG: Episode 6

So there I was, feeling like a ge-ge-genius in my analysis of last episode & then it turns out it was all for a coat. Sigh. And back to the ranks of pedestrian Survivor blogger I go...

No time for a full-blown blog this week, especially considering I'm already 5 days late, so please check the spreadsheet for updated scores. You'll be shocked - shocked! - to see that the gap between Bag and MoonBee v. the rest of us has only grown wider. Also got the unnecessary confirmation from producers that Eric doesn't know what he's doing.

Player Rankings, not including those living on Ponderosa (fabulous exit interview though, Lyrsa):


13. Elizabeth - No one likes her and she doesn't do well with conflict. Not seeing a big future here.

12. Carl - This guy is doing nothing & won't likely earn many points from here on out. I like his hat though.

11. Gabby - I think everyone likes Gabby more than me. I enjoy her as a person but I think she's a sub-par Survivor player. The teenager in me is tickled by the Nerd Love storyline though.

10. Dan - Brochacho's going to be a huge target post-merge. He's got his hidden 2nd idol in his pocket, but I think his lips are going to loosen up once he's back with Kara. I'm predicting a botched idol play in Dan's future, though likely not as epic as James the Gravedigger's.

9. Kara - not sure what kind of alliances she has left with that all-female trio crashing & burning. Actually that's pretty much the story of all the women on this season...

8. Angelina - keeping up with the theme of our team, Angelina came in aggressive & arrogant this season. Not advisable, as the casualty toll is proving for this style of play. I think the merge is coming at a great time for her game, though.

7. Alison - I liked her more before she got airtime this week. Her "I'm such an amazingly awesome, better-than-anyone-else doctor because I really feel for the little guy" spiel really fell flat for me. (If you couldn't tell.) Still, at least she's considering all of her alliance options and is clearly thinking strategy without making that abundantly clear to everyone else.

6. Alec - playing a cannier game than I would have ever given him credit for at the draft. However, he's a huge challenge threat & I'm not sure how much people will trust him. Watch out for an early post-merge exit, but if he can survive the next couple episodes he could do very well.

5. Davie - still has potential, though we haven't seen much from him lately. I'm excited to see him in a post-merge world.

4. John - I guess it's time: Ab-raham Lincoln is playing a pretty flawless game. At least provided he can distance himself from the bro-fest that Dan is cultivating. That's going to be dangerous. 

3. Nick - Nick is the dark horse to win this whole thing. Lots of quiet alliances going on, willing to defer to allies when it's not going to cost him too much. Not drawing too much attention as a player, but is definitely scheming.

2. Christian - rumors of his demise (from the "next time on Survivor") are likely to be greatly exaggerated. Guys' got a good set of alliances, is going to have a great character arc story to share if he gets to final tribal, might even leave with a girlfriend.

1. Mike - see all previous posts for more details.


DOW:
Angelina.

Survivor DG: Episode 5

I'm stating the obvious here and basically repeating what Moon already said... but with all 6 players left in the game & an 18+ point advantage against the rest of the field that has a measly 4 castaways, this is more of a cage match than a melee.

Sorry guys, the cage is full.

So rather than beat a dead horse or discuss my opinions about one small town mayor, let's discuss Natalie. Yay!

On the list of "people we'd be most devastated to find living in our Survivor camp" Natalie is absolutely a Top 5. She might even been the Queen Bee. Other top contenders for me include J'Tia (rice burner) and Brandon Hantz (unhinged). (Some might also list Philip Jessum Herring here, but they are obviously mistaken.) There's always a decent contingent of lazy or bossy castaways, but they are rarely in combination or quite as extreme as Natalie is... err, was.

The fact that Natalie lasted all the way to day 15 (I think) is a true testament to what makes Survivor great. You may wake up ever day dreading the inevitable interactions you will have with 20% of the people living in your camp under the most intense living conditions ever. But you will keep that person around because you'd rather hate your life in the short term to give yourself even a slightly better chance to get a million dollars in the long term.

With that being said, reaching that logical point isn't something everyone is capable of, including Lyrsa and Natalia to name a couple. And even if you're already thinking that far ahead - Angelina - it's a flaw in your logic not to take into account how these other contestants will view your opinion on the matter:

1. "The masses" can't stand living with Natalie
2. You see the advantage of doing so and use your influence to keep Natalie around
3. Now the masses can't stand Natalie, are mad at you for making them continue to live with her, and realize that you care more about strategy than them as people
4. You are a threat and one of the sources of their misery. The masses vote you out. 

This is where you see the difference in caliber of player. Lyrsa & Natalia made it to Step #1. Angelina made it to Step #2. Good, but not good enough. I think that Mike made saw ahead to Step #4 and decided to take a different path. He made the right move & Angelina took a big mis-step. Here's how he crushed it:

• Mike pacified the masses, building goodwill with the Davids but still keeping the door open with Goliaths since he only voted out someone that they all hated anyway
• As soon as Natalia was voted out, all Goliaths should have re-thought their game plan. Even if they go in even numbers or up 1 to the merge, it's clear that allegiances have changed. Kara & Alec made that abundantly clear through facial expressions at the reward challenge. So you need to assume that when Natalia when home you also lost Alec. That means that you weren't sitting at 8 Goliaths v. 7 Davids last episode, you were sitting at 7 Goliaths v. 7 Davids + 1 Alec. If that's where you stand, doesn't it also make sense for you to flip on the Goliaths and join the majority?
• You've now opened the door to playing both sides, aka putting yourself exactly where you want to be. Once you hit the merge, Goliaths would need to focus on taking out Davids rather than you if you've re-aligned yourself with them... or vice versa. Buying you time to build trust, make friendships, and open the door to more options for game play.
• At this point in Survivor, I think it's actually more risky to stick with your original alliance after that first tribal swap than to switch sides. When there are 3 tribes competing is the best time to make these moves as you're at the time that you're least likely to have to go to tribal council at all. When you have that opportunity, make a big move & it's unlikely you'll be back anytime soon to suffer the repercussions. 

To me, this episode showed that Mike is best player in the game.

Other points of disagreement/adjustment in Moon's power rankings (which overall were excellent): Gabby is seriously overrated. If she can't overcome her intimidation after having lived 5+ days with these Goliaths, she's pretty much screwed. Elizabeth & Alec should be bumped up the list - though I wouldn't have said that before watching last night's episode. I don't think Alec is as smart or savvy as Mike but I do think he had more thought process to his decision last week than he was given credit for. And I loved that Elizabeth was wary of Kara after the vote. They'd bonded early so I thought she'd fall for that "I trust you more than Alec" spiel, but she was having none of it. Good on ye, Sheila.

The Teams:

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 79 points

• Christian (12 pts)
• Dan (22 pts)
• Davie (15 pts)
• Alec (10 pts)
• Kara (10 pts)
• Elizabeth (10 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Taking Pickle to Slamtown" - 60 points

• John (12 pts)
• Gabby (12 pts)
• John (12 pts)
• Mike (8 pts)
• Mike (8 pts)
• Nick (8 pts)

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 46 points

• Christian (12 pts)
• Dan (22 pts)
• Alison (12 pts)
• [Bi (-5 pts)]
• [Bi (-5 pts)]
• Elizabeth (10 pts)

Michal & Ben "Get Out" - 42 points

• [Natalia (0 pts)]
• Davie (15 pts)
• Angelina (7 pts)
• Carl (10 pts)
• [Jeremy (0 pts)]
• Carl (10 pts)

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 32 points

• [Natalia (0 pts)]
• Gabby (12 pts)
• [Jessica (-6 pts)]
• Kara (10 pts)
• Lyrsa (8 pts)
• Lyrsa (8 pts)

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing" - 31 points

• Angelina (7 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• [Jessica (-5 pts)]
• Nick (5 pts)
• [Jeremy (0 pts)]

Natalie "It's MY coat" - 10 points

• [Natalie (5 pts)]
• [Natalie (5 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Bagdrea: Seriously this is the dream team. Maybe switch out Kara for Mike & I see zero flaws. Dan is dumb but an idol magnet. Christian has the character arc story. Alec brings in challenge points. Davie has a chance to go deep. Even Elizabeth is proving her worth. 
2. MoonBee: See above. I'm with Doug on the Mayor's potential protein deficiency, and being a huge target post-merge. But he's absolutely playing a better social game than I ever could have expected. With that being said, I apologize for nothing.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
3. Phil: This team has a good head on its collective shoulders. Nick is still a twerp with his dumb alliance names but I very much appreciate his response to Natalie's coat bullying. 
4. Michal & Ben: Who knows, maybe Carl is in it to win it!
5.  Doug & Bri: With Bagdrea's team being so dominant and there being so much overlap in their teams, Doug & Bri essentially have no way to win. Unless it turns out that Alison can turn on her Rage function a la Dungeons & Dragons, and go on a huge point-earning tear.
6. Eric: Eeeee.

DoW:

Natalie, for the last time!

Survivor DG: Episode 4

Michal's greatest mistake wasn't drafting Natalia with her first pick. It was letting me write the blog this week.

I took great satisfaction in Natalia's exit. Imagine drafting that self-sabotaging hellion ahead of a deep, multifaceted, charismatic player like John.

Okay. The intention of this post isn't actually to trash our blog mother. Her remaining team appears pretty strong, she and her husband have crushed the pool recently and they own all of the pool's long-time records. Plus, she's a pretty cool lady. Most importantly, I'm getting maximal satisfaction out of watching Michal begrudgingly raise our team's power ranking week-by-week. I wish she could do the blog this week, because she's a terrific writer and because she'd have to painfully realize our team has 1.5x the members and 2x the points of hers. Perturbed as she might be, Michal would have a hard time ranking us lower than second this week. I'll just have to imagine her shaking her head disgustedly, gritting her teeth and placing us second behind A to Z.

This post is going to be a power rankings, but of the individual kind. Team power rankings wouldn't be insightful right now as two horses have moved way out in front, at least in terms of remaining players and points scored. Check the spreadsheet if you want to jealously gaze up at our huge leads. This is a power rankings of all the players, including the departed.


BUSTO: Jessica
Sometimes youngsters have the maturity of last year's Michael and sometimes they haven't graduated beyond narcissism and abrasiveness. Jessica was the latter. A lousy mid-round pick.

BUSTO: Jeremy
I really loved the Jeremy Experience but the man just couldn't control himself. He was the maniac in the poker tournament who won ten of the first fifteen hands and busted before the first break.

BUSTO: Bi
Let's not write a revisionist history about what a strong player Bi was before her unlucky injury. Bi was never going anywhere in this game. She was a bit of a hothead and didn't appear to be forging solid alliances. But of course it was unlucky for Bri & Doug to have her depart this early. The rules give -5 points for med-evackers and 0 to -10 points for quitters, determined by pool vote. I'm not exactly sure how this works, but if I'm voting, I would give Bi -3 points. If it's a binary 0 or -10, I would give her 0.

BUSTO: Natalia
Natalia had the appearance of a strong player, but those who investigated beyond the surface found a concerning underbelly of arrogance and pushiness. Her early exit was entirely self-inflicted. All she had to do was throw Alec the slightest bone and he would have been happy to make the easy vote with her and Kara. At least she had the self-awareness to admit she blew it in her bustout interview.

15. Natalie
Could a mature, self-assured player grab Natalie and use her as a coattail-riding vote deep into the game? I doubt it. She's just too abrasive. Nobody likes her.

14. Lyrsa
She's certainly capable of making a run if everything breaks right, but Lyrsa doesn't appear capable of winning challenges, rousing votes or garnering respect at Final Tribal.

13. Elizabeth
I'm not giving Elizabeth credit for turning the tables and upsetting Natalia. I'm giving Natalia credit for that, helped by an overeager...

12. Alec
Smug in his backstab of Natalia, Alec may have signed his own death warrant while trying to build his resumé. Now all the Goliaths know he can't be trusted. With Carl joining the Orange Tribe, Alec is no sure bet to even survive the next vote. Sometimes the dumb surfer guy is actually a disarmingly shrewd charmer like Jay and sometimes the dumb surfer guy is just a dumb surfer guy.

11. Nick
The Kentucky lawyer has a thing for alliances with stronger males and a thing for corny nicknames for those alliances. The Rockstar Alliance isn't particularly clever or particularly staunch, but it's good enough to give us a team name to replace #vytas. We're the Slamtown Rockstars. At least until we think of something better.

10. Alison
We haven't seen or heard much from Alison. She seems unlikely to ruffle many feathers or make a serious push at the million bucks.

9. Dan
Dumb Dan bemoaned being separated from his girlfriend, but it was the best thing that could have happened to him. Dan landed on the powerhouse Green tribe where he should continue to accumulate points and build relationships. In the unlikely event of a Green loss, Dan could be their first to go.

8. Kara
She's sharp enough to appreciate the separation from Dan, but the switch didn't go well for Kara. She was the only one who stuck with Natalia and would appear to be Orange's next target. I think Kara is calm and savvy enough to mend things with Alec - or help arrange his demise.

7. Mike
He's proven he can hang with the kids and he's proven his strategic acumen. My issue with Mike is the same issue he identified - he's on the Purple tribe which figures to be making frequent Tribal Council appearances.

6. Carl
Cool new twist with the "Idol Nullifier." It's the rare advantage that's optimized by sharing with others. It will be interesting to see how it's employed by Carl and his pals. His stay on Exile Island shouldn't hurt him, as he's re-entering the game onto a tribe without set alliances. Plus it would be a surprise for Orange to return to Tribal before Purple.

5. Angelina
She did land on Purple, but it would be an upset to see Angelina removed from her tribe before Natalie or other Purples. I'm concerned she might be a little too headstrong, a little too unnecessarily influential, but it wouldn't be surprised to see Angelina head a post-merge female alliance down the stretch.

4. John
The Mayor of Slamtown is doing everything a contender should be doing at this stage. He doesn't complain, he doesn't ruffle feathers, he gets screentime, he's shown charisma and self-awareness, he's linked up with the right people, he's on the powerhouse tribe and he hasn't yet displayed a protein problem.

3. Gabby
Gabby is a little tough to evaluate at this point, as she's had some emotional struggles and considers herself first on the chopping block of her tribe. But that is the powerhouse tribe, she has the strongest alliance in the game with its strongest player and she knows how to talk to people. The edit suggests a deep run.

2. Davie
It seems elementary, but most castaways can't keep their idols to themselves. Davie has managed to do it so far - and managed to negotiate disadvantageous tribe swap & council without using that idol. He deftly manipulated Goliath-weighted Orange to a Natalia vote without any fanfare - a sign of great social skill.

1. Christian
Christian has been the most powerful castaway since day one. He's also gotten the most airtime. Seemingly everyone wants to ally with him. His alliances are so intimate betrayal seems unlikely. He's already building a resumé for Final Tribal and figures to garner plenty of points along the way with his puzzle prowess. Christian went 1/2 in the draft and I assume that's where he'd go if we re-drafted tomorrow.

Survivor DG: Episode 3

Oof, a lot to unpack after this episode, but with a tribal mix-up coming up soon I'm not even sure it's worth it. So in honor of Eric I will share my thoughts via a list:

1. Bi's knee injury got more air time than I would have expected. I suspect this will get worse over the coming days & she'll be med-evacked from the show.
2. John definitely came across as a savvy player this week. I'm still not sold on him though. I need him to crush this tribal swap before I can give #Vytas too much respect
3. Hermit crab racing is the single-handed greatest way to entertain yourself in Survivor history.
4. Wtf Jeremy?? That dude's paranoia got the best of him. He seems like a really smart guy & then - boom! - calling a tribe meeting, attacking Natalie at tribal, and over-strategizing after telling everyone else not to do it. He brought about his own demise.
5. Speaking of, here are the Top 5 things you should never do on Survivor:
1. Sabotage your own team during a challenge
2. Feel like you are safe
3. Call a tribe meeting
4. Sabotage your own camp, e.g. burning all your food, hiding a machete, etc. 
5. Get cocky because you have an idol
6. And here's my Top 5 list of things you should definitely do to prepare for going on Survivor:
1. Know how to make fire
2. Know how to swim
3. Gain 15 pounds
4. Practice puzzles
5. Some kind of endurance practice, especially related to your arms (e.g. holding them above your head or out in front of you for hours at a time)
7. Kudos to Mike for trying to defend Jeremy but also knowing when to let go. #MVP of the episode right here
8. Overall I feel like the teams are pretty even, though I'm still going to give power rankings... because, well, it's fun to judge things. Some of the players who I think are top competitors are getting dragged down by stables with some lame ponies in them. I don't see anyone running away with this game quite yet. 

The Teams:

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 35 points

• Christian (5 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Davie (10 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Kara (5 pts)
• Elizabeth (5 pts)

Moon & Melissa "#Vytas" - 30 points

• John (5 pts)
• Gabby (5 pts)
• John (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Nick (5 pts)

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 30 points

• Christian (5 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• Bi (5 pts)
• Bi (5 pts)
• Elizabeth (5 pts)

Michal & Ben "Get Out" - 29 points

• Natalia (4 pts)
• Davie (10 pts)
• Angelina (4 pts)
• Carl (5 pts)
• [Jeremy (1 pt)]
• Carl (5 pts)

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 19 points

• Natalia (4 pts)
• Gabby (5 pts)
• [Jessica (-5 pts)]
• Kara (5 pts)
• Lyrsa (5 pts)
• Lyrsa (5 pts)

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing" - 15 points

• Angelina (4 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• [Jessica (-5 pts)]
• Nick (5 pts)
• [Jeremy (1 pt)]

Natalie "The Greatest Dreg This Game Has Ever Seen... Now Get Back to Work!" - 8 points

• Natalie (4 pts)
• Natalie (4 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Bagdrea: Dan was surprisingly eloquent at tribal council. His love of "attractive & blonde" Kara may still be a massive problem, but I think there's more potential with him than his predecessor Cole ever had. Too bad that Jeremy's swan song included blowing his cover on the idol though. Otherwise this team is rock solid with the Alec + Davie + Christian combo. Alec is going to rake in points at challenges (until the merge when they'll likely boot him). There's some decent strategists on this tribe & no one's name is being mentioned as a target at this point, so things are looking pretty smooth over here.
2. Eric: Eric has Natalia, Gabby, and Kara who I think could all be major players in this game. Again, could they win enough challenges & find enough idols to net points along the way to outlasting everyone? I'm not sure. But call me a fan of this team despite the "Wrong Blonde" hiccup. 
3. Michal & Ben: Angelina was certainly a top performer this week, but hopefully she didn't stick her neck out too far too early in the game. The women's alliance + MANipulation seems to be going pretty well for NatAngKara. I hope they can keep things going during the swap. Carl's a pretty big problem though. Someone crying at the start of the episode because they miss home only nine days in does not bode well.
4. Moon & Melissa: Mike's MVP status helps MoonBee continue their crawl up the rankings. Bad luck that everyone's throwing hate towards Gabby, though I have a feeling she'll make it through. The Nerd Love Story that the producers are hyping this season is actually kind of amazing. I will never forget the "do you want to play with me?" "What? Oh, like in the sand?" interaction. That might be one of the best ever.
5.  Doug & Bri: I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think Bi is lasting much longer and it's -5 or -10 x2 if she gets med-evacked or quits. If Dan continues to overperform then they could potentially overcome that, but he's also a bit of a loose cannon when it comes to boom or bust potential.
6. Phil: Alas, Phil's time at the top was short-lived. I hope you enjoyed your brief moment in the limelight! 2 players down this early is pretty much a death knell in this game. Despite having 4 strong players left, I think it's going to be all but impossible to make a comeback now.

DoW:

Jeremy

Survivor DG: Episode 2

Game on! I'm a little short on time today so here's my notes on the players' performance last night:

Impressed by:

• Davie - well done sir, thanks for nabbing that immunity idol while embracing your "provider" role
• Gabby - for being assertive in your game play, which I was worried about
• Alec - more than just a bro, perhaps?
• Jeremy - he was getting into it this episode, trying to build relationships, etc. Keep it up!

Not impressed by:

• Bi - she met my expectations in game play, though I'd hoped she'd be a little stronger in challenges
• Dan - might be even dumber than I'd thought
• Christian - I know it seems like he's in the driver's seat but I'm just not sure he's got the proper motivation right now. I think he's delighted by the prospects of game play, but I'm not seeing the determination to win a million dollars that is often necessary to back-stab your besties to get there. 

The Teams:

Moon & Melissa "#Vytas" - 20 points

• John (5 pts)
• Gabby (0 pts)
• John (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Nick (0 pts)

Michal & Ben "Get Out" - 20 points

• Natalia (5 pts)
• Davie (5 pts)
• Angelina (5 pts)
• Carl (0 pts)
• Jeremy (5 pts)
• Carl (0 pts)

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 20 points

• Christian (0 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Davie (5 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Kara (5 pts)
• Elizabeth (0 pts)

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing" - 15 points

• Angelina (5 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• Jessica (-5 pts)
• Nick (0 pts)
• Jeremy (5 pts)

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 10 points

• Christian (0 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• Bi (0 pts)
• Bi (0 pts)
• Elizabeth (0 pts)

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 5 points

• Natalia (5 pts)
• Gabby (0 pts)
• Jessica (-5 pts)
• Kara (5 pts)
• Lyrsa (0 pts)
• Lyrsa (0 pts)

Natalie "The Greatest Dreg This Game Has Ever Seen... Now Get Back to Work!" - 8 points

• Natalie (4 pts)
• Natalie (4 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Phil: I'm going to rocket Phil's team up to first place after an impressive episode from Jeremy, what's looking like a decent alliance between Christian and Nick, and Alec seeming more substantial than I initially gave him credit for.
2. Bagdrea: Dan may end up being this team's downfall with the showmance double-down going on here. Collateral damage is very real in these circumstances, which is such a shame. But I still think this is a well-rounded team with a lot of potential.
3. Michal: Davie was great but he & Carl found themselves on the wrong end of the vote last episode & that could spell real trouble when you have 2 Carls.
    
4.  Doug & Bri: Really needed Bi to be more impressive than she was. This is a team that could really benefit from an early tribal mix-up.
   
5. Moon & Melissa: I still think John is a terrible pick, but Gabby & Mike over-performed so you're out of the doghouse!
   
   
6. Eric: Eric avoided near disaster with an early Lyrsa departure. But she could easily be the target next week too if the David Tribe continues to lose challenges & they don't switch up tribes anytime soon. Her argument that she won the first reward challenge is extremely flawed & her tribe is too smart to buy that for long.

DoW:

Natalie obv

Survivor DG: The Draft

Welcome to Survivor, season 37, David v. Goliath. I know we're only 1 episode in, but is anyone else already completely over the castaways on the David tribe being referred to as "Davids"? It's a little confusing, maybe a little sexist... I'm not 100% sure why it bothers be so much, but clearly it's enough of an issue that I'm leading off the blog with this opinion.

The pool this season will follow the same format as the last couple seasons w/ double drafts & 6 teams. We added a tribal fire-building rule to address the horrible truth that there will be a fire-building challenge when there are 4 players left each season. To which Eric responded "I'll be honest, this rule change isn't going to change my draft picks one iota  because I have no idea what I'm doing" and completely made my night.

This season looks to have a different director or editor as they are comfortable showing events in a non-chronological order. I love this! It's a much better change than when Top Chef decided to mix things but by showing people cooking in slo-mo. What was the point of that??

And while I think the "David v. Goliath" theme is one of the dumbest they've had, this seems to be a season of cannier castaways than we've had in the last few seasons. So call me cautiously optimistic about this season & hopefully some exciting game play!

The Teams:

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft"

• Christian
• Dan
• Alison
• Bi
• Bi
• Elizabeth

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing"

• Angelina
• Alec
• Alison
• Jessica
• Nick
• Jeremy

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing"

• Natalia
• Gabby
• Jessica
• Kara
• Lyrsa
• Lyrsa

Moon & Melissa "#Vytas"

• John
• Gabby
• John
• Mike
• Mike
• Nick

Michal & Ben "Get Out"

• Natalia
• Davie
• Angelina
• Carl
• Jeremy
• Carl

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good"

• Christian
• Dan
• Davie
• Alec
• Kara
• Elizabeth

Natalie "The Greatest Dreg This Game Has Ever Seen... Now Get Back to Work!"

• Natalie
• Natalie

Player Rankings:

I'm not confident enough to give a power ranking, but I will share early thoughts on this season's castaways:

• Alec: Eric said "Davie is like what's her name from two seasons ago.  He's not really even on the show." Which is both brilliantly said & also reflects my thoughts on Alec but not Davie this season. #Justanotherwhitebro #Bagdefinitelydraftedhim
• Alison: Reminds me of Chrissy from season 35 (which Ben won, but she came in 2nd or 3rd). Could be a challenge beast, also has potential to be crafty with the strategic play though we didn't see a lot of alliance-building from the Goliaths in this episode.
• Angelina: Reminds me so much of this actress from The Newsroom that I'm still unsure if I think she's a good pic or I was just thrown off by the familiarity of her face. Still, I loved that she knew the gender breakdown stats of who finds immunity idols. That's the sign of a harder-core fan than I am, and I gotta respect that.
• Bi: I like Bi a lot, but her experience with the show of Survivor is super lacking (based on reading her bio on CBS, which I pretty much never do, and may live to regret it this season). I think she'll be good at the social & challenge game, but I don't think she'll be a good strategist and will be outmaneuvered this season.
• Carl: Made his first alliance with a 19-year-old who reminded him of his daughter. I know he didn't do great at the challenge, but he was reaching out to the "underdogs" of his tribe, and I think he could go far through relationship-building.
• Christian: Cap'n Nerd Squad is a castaway stereotype we've seen before, but as discussed in the Greenberg household, we think he's more of a First Season Cochran rather than 2nd Season Cochran. He got a lot of air time early but he's on the underdog tribe looking to take a leadership role and that can be a dangerous position to be in when the inevitable tribal mix-up happens.
• Dan: is in for a world of hurt when he realizes that this isn't a show about finding love and talking about how hot he and/or his fellow castaways are. Also I really could have done without watching him pull an idol out of his undies. Still, props to Dan for finding the idol. Maybe he has more potential than I'm giving him credit for...
• Davie: I learned what "blerd" means from Davie, which is cool, as is catching an octopus. A potential provider for a tribe who can bond with the reigning Nerd Party on this island could have strong potential.
• Elizabeth: This friendly cowgirl hasn't given me any indication that she can get very far in this game & was understandably one of the last picks of the season.
• Gabby: First impression of Gabby is that she reminds me of Melissa, so I'm definitely cheering for her. I'm worried she might end up prioritizing loyalty over winning the game, though. Hopefully she can step up as a leader and build a resume while also building friendships. Also #Nerdlove?
• Jeremy: Someone else we know nearly nothing about, though I did love his "I'm only out looking for an idol because everyone else is, and damned if I'm going to build a shelter when no one else is" line. But that's not really enough info to be able to judge someone's potential on, so we'll have to wait & see with him.
• Jessica: The sweet 19-year-old who may be in over her head.
• John: Ab-raham Lincoln "they hate that in Mexico, isn't that funny?" John is SO unsuited for this game. That dude's gotta be 250 pounds, right? These big guys with big names & assumed big bank accounts do not thrive on this show. And he certainly has no business being the #3 overall pick in the draft. Also, even if you really like John, metagame this draft Moon! Who on earth else would draft this guy before the 3rd round? You could've gotten John two times & much higher caliber player in the #3 overall pick. C'mon man.
• Kara: Well, we know she's blonde and she's hot, but what else do we know? Kara may get handicapped by association with Dan. Early on this is shaping up to the be the next Cole/Jessica relationship.
• Lyrsa: "Spunky" is the word that comes to mind when I think of Lyrsa. Not sure about how much of a competitor she'll be & previews of next week make it look like she'll be targeted. Though we've all been fooled by that before!
• Mike: Mike totally looks like Woogie from There's Something About Mary. Ding ding ding, Doug! He could be the next bald guy David, but I doubt it. His story is already known so he won't have a good character arc to get him by. Also apparently the only person talking to him is Natalie, which is a bad bad sign. I foresee an early exit here.
• Natalia: Maybe a little too aggressive for the first couple days on the island, but she seems smart, crafty, and ready to make moves. I hope she goes far because she's my early pick to win it all.
• Natalie: So bad that it was known before this draft even began that she'd be a double dreg this season
• Nick: Did Nick come on Survivor to win, or just to make up random names for the fake alliances he's building? Might last longer than originally expected due to the editing of the show, but I hope not. This guy seems smug, lazy, and in-genuine in almost every way. 

Power Rankings:

1. Michal: Obviously this is the best team. Well-rounded, with hopefully a good mix of point-scorers in challenges as well as the wily ones who will go deep in the game. Honestly I do like my team a lot but many choices were made based on perceived potential rather than anything most of these castaways have done as of yet.
    
2. Bagdrea: This team is really solid. Lots of diversity, maybe not a lot of intelligence though. Replace Dan with an Angelina or Alison or Natalia though & I'd have a hard time saying anything bad about this team.
    
3. Doug & Bri: This team does look eerily like Bag's, but agreed that you only need to be half worried about it, Doug. I think too much depends on Bi with this team, though, since there's a lot of overlap with Bag, and I think that may prove to be your downfall. I'll still be cheering for her, though, and I hope she proves me wrong!
    
4. Phil: Why did people like Alec so much? I think taking him round 2 was a mistake, but overall I find this team unobjectionable. Getting Jeremy in the last round could be a huge dreg pick-up too...
    
5.  Eric: I like a lot of Eric's choices in his draft especially Natalia & Gabby, but he lost points by admitting that drafting Jessica was an error and that he drafted the wrong blonde. And not that I don't love women power, but I think it's risky to draft an all-female team in Survivor pool. Especially when we now know that 85% of idols are found by men, and there are definitely challenges where men will be favored to win. Both of which are huge point scorers in the pool. But this might be the first time we've ever seen an all-female team so what do I know. It is the Year of the Woman after all, right?
   
6. Moon & Melissa: MoonBee brought a club to a chess match when they double-drafted the Mayor of Slamtown. Also, while our sample size is tiny, there's no evidence that the double-draft is a winning strategy in Survivor Pool. The last 2 winners had no double-drafted players. But MoonBee doubled-down on the double-draft and did so with some hugely questionable players. And then they threw a dash of Gabby on top & called it a day. Please provide some comments explaining these choices because I'm honestly bewildered by what happened here. Though having a weekly opportunity to mock this team through the blog is definitely a perk. :)

Survivor Ghost Island: Finale

It’s the finale & no one is more excited the Probst. It’s either because he’s completely in his element on live TV, or because he’s relieved this rather dull season is nearly over. The Ghost Island concept I think could’ve been a great one if it had been a cannier cast.

Wendell is probably the smartest person left on the island, and is coming into the finale as the favorite to win. But that also makes him the biggest target. Then Dom & Wendell start talking about how Sea Bass is the biggest threat left and I’m once again reminded of the inferiority of this season. Terrible judgment!!

The next immunity + reward challenge is a maze with what looks to be a tricky puzzle. Whoever wins this is getting themselves a hefty 10 points (or 20 points for a double stack), and it definitely feels like the Survivor Pool this season is closer than it's been in recent memory.

Wendell wins – woot! – and he takes the dregs with him to reward. Smart move, though I think it was craftier than how far Wendell thought it through. After all, keeping Donathan isolated from talking to the dregs is a pretty important decision.

Then we get to watch Angela be included in a strategic plan for the first time ever, and then we instantly get to see why folks never did so before now – because she can’t keep her mouth shut. Great editing, and a hilarious scene.

Tribal council is painful on a lot of levels… bro. The blitzkrieg of idols both real & fake was an obvious front to scare people away from voting out Dom. And sadly it totally worked. Such a n00b mistake, Sea Bass.

Next day & it’s a new challenge but with the same result – Wendell wins again. Then Dom makes one of the worst poker analogies in Survivor history by claiming that “a snap call is usually a bluff.” Yeah sure. Hopefully he’s at one of y’alls tables at the WSOP this year and he will snap call all his chips your way.

There was some grandstanding at tribal but nothing super interesting. Idols were played to no avail and Donathan was sent to the jury.

Dom ended up winning immunity & it was fun to see the respect between Dom & Wendell play out as they both knew long ago that they didn’t want to take the other one to final but had so much fun playing together that they just couldn’t help themselves.

Somehow looking at urns where past contestants messed up in the 11^th hour inspired Dom to consider the unthinkable – give up his immunity idol to play for fire against Wendell. He claims it would make him a legend in a good way. I think it would have made him a legend more a la Eric.

Fortunately Dom’s not that stupid (though he was dumb enough to sacrifice Angela to a fire challenge). Even though the decisions were not well made, it feels like the 3 most deserving players (since Michael went home) have made it to the finals, so I can make my peace with that.

MVP of final tribal is far & away Michael. He would have CRUSHED IT arguing his own case if he hadn’t been voted out! Bring him back soon, Probst, I want to see that guy playing against the likes of Sarah, Parvati, Boston Rob, and Cochran. He could hold his own. I think Laurel did a good job of arguing her case and that Dom & Wendell both did a bad job of arguing their cases. And yet she got no votes!!

For the first time in Survivor history…. There’s a tie! Ultimately Wendell’s loyalty to Laurel pays off huge, and I feel a massive sense of vindication at picking the ultimate winner #1 overall. So many doubters out there, but it turns out I’m more than just a blogger. I actually know my stuff too. J

The Teams:

Michal & Ben: 203 points

• Wendell (94 pts)
• Jenna (19 pts)
• Laurel (46pts)
• Sebastian (32 pts)
• Desiree (12 pts)

Bagginses: 193 points

• Stephanie (-5 pts)
• Wendell (94 pts)
• Libby (26 pts)
• Laurel (46 pts)
• Donathan (32 pts)

Phil: 156 points

• Brendan (-6 pts)
• Dom (80 pts)
• Dom (80 pts)
• Bradley (1 pts)
• Bradley (1 pts)

Eric: 150 points

• Michael (32 pts)
• Michael (32 pts)
• Angela (37 pts)
• Angela (37 pts)
• Desiree (12 pts)

SuperDreg: 118 points

• Chelsea (33 pts)
• Chris (26 pts)
• Chelsea (33 pts)
• Chris (26 pts)

Doug & Bri: 87 points

• Stephanie (-5 pts)
• Sebastian (32 pts)
• Donathan (32 pts)
• Kellyn (22 pts)
• James (6 pts)

MoonBee: 67 points

• Brendan (-6 pts)
• Libby (26 pts)
• Kellyn (22 pts)
• Jenna (19 pts)
• James (6 pts)

Next Season:

Next season’s theme of David v. Goliath looks almost as dumb as the new Kevin Hart show. The mixed metaphors of “all Goliaths have Achilles heels” is cringe-worthy as well. Fire that writer, Probst, s/he made you look like a fool!

Sruvivor: New Episode

Whoa, I'm actually almost keeping up with Survivor? Hard to believe!!

But it's Friday night & I can't think of anything better than to sit down with a solid beer (Left Hand Milk Stout) and "live" blog the latest episode of Survivor.

There's 7 left, and Donathan's feelings are very similar to my own from my last blog. He's seriously contemplating ditching play-it-safe Laurel and trying to do something to boost his resume.

In the meantime we have a reward challenge where the reward is being a Survivor Goodwill Ambassador & Kellyn clutches her heart throat in some kind of mimicry of being Mother Theresa rather than admitting that was she actually wants is the fried chicken. I'd probably be all for that if I was on Survivor. I recently learned that I make some seriously badass fried chicken myself (let me know if you want to try it sometime).

They draw for "captains" and the choices are 100% unsurprising. Poor Angela. No one gives her a real chance, including me.

This is the kind of challenge I'd be super pumped to participate in. Kind of mundane, but all about perfecting a process. That's my jam, yo. 33 days in, though, this is pretty grueling.

All 3 teams make it to 4 spools, which was better than I expected. I love that they did this as a team challenge this time around. All about communication, strategy, and heart. Is this my fave challenge ever? Honestly, it might be. Which is well-timed, because I think Moon is right. This is generally a weak season.

Dumbass Seabass & Kellyn are unsurprisingly the first team out, though kudos to them all for making it to 5 spools each. Laurel & Donathan bust immediately afterwards, and Wendell & Dom immediately choose Laurel to share their reward & Dumbass Seabass to go to Ghost Island. The lack of thought behind these choices (and the verbal announcement of the lack of thought) prove that these "masterminds" wouldn't stand a chance against the true geniuses of this show (Parvati, Boston Rob, Cochran, Yau Man, etc. just to name a few.... aaahhhh when are they going to have an All Star season again? I miss the Supreme Metagame!!) .

Back from commercial and Seabass is suddenly some kind of Ghost Island Philosopher. He refers to himself as a... barnacle??... that attaches to a whale. I clearly didn't catch the whole thing, but the gist was spot on and shockingly insightful for someone who appeared to be perma-stoned up until this point. Cap'n Bass wins himself an advantage in the game and even more importantly a little respect from this here blogger.

Now we move on to the "goodwill ambassador" part of the show, and it's mildly uncomfortable as it's borderline racist/classist/American-privilegist but thankfully they don't spend too much time dwelling on the black castaways being good at sports & the "adoring" looks the "brown children" are giving them while they show off their skills.

Donathan's "Truth Bombs" are maybe not something I've been paying too much attention to until the last couple episodes?? He says they've been working for him, but I can't say I've noticed that much of them until recently. In any case, he manages to ostracize most of his primary alliance in about 10 minutes and I failed to see how that helped him in his game. But I'd be happy if Cap'n Bass wasn't the only one to pleasantly surprise me tonight, so fingers crossed there was more to Donathan's strategy than what we just witnessed. Because if he didn't think that through, he just put 2 guys on high alert who were the last 2 people on the island that they wanted to feel insecure.

On to the immunity challenge, and Wendell & Cap'n Bass are going strong while everyone else seems to struggle. But Laurel catches up & in the end it's a weird finish where Wendell actually finishes first but Laurel calls it first & gets the credit. Well done Wendell for bowing out as gracefully as possible. I wonder if he would have done the same if it wasn't Laurel (or Dom) who was the winner.

Back at camp there's an uncomfortable scramble where everyone wants Kellyn gone, but Donathan gets so paranoid that somehow his plans just make himself a giant target rather than help him in any way. Laurel is conspicuously absent throughout all these exchanges, though, and I'm wondering what that means. Is she usually the one that protects him, or reins him in? Then Kellyn refers to Donathan as someone who "pulls the plug on the grenade" and my indignation at Moon referring to me as Kellyn-like intensifies. Seriously man? I'd like to think you have more respect for me than that.

There's some kind of scramble after that, but I'm not really paying attention other than to note that Angela isn't involved in pretty much any of this.

Dom's cryptic speech at tribal was so sketchy that he vilifies himself immediately rather than salvaging the situation. But then Donathan returns fire by doing basically the exact same thing.

Now the question really is, can Seabass use his extra vote when it's down to 5 or even 4 players left? If so, definitely hold on to that advantage -it's HUGE!!

In the end it's a tie between Kellyn & Donathan and strangely it appears that Wendell & Dom didn't give Angela any info as to who she should vote for. Did they talk to the Cap'n either?

Kellyn goes home & next week is the FINALE!!! What a good early birthday present. Kellyn is gone, and the finale is next week!

The Teams:

SuperDreg: 118 points

• [Chelsea (33 pts)]
• [Chris (26 pts)]
• [Chelsea (33 pts)]
• [Chris (26 pts)]

Eric: 110 points

• [Michael (32 pts)]
• [Michael (32 pts)]
• Angela (17 pts)
• Angela (17 pts)
• [Desiree (12 pts)]

Michal & Ben: 99 points

• Wendell (28 pts)
• [Jenna (19 pts)]
• Laurel (26 pts)
• Sebastian (14 pts)
• [Desiree (12 pts)]

Bagginses: 90 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Wendell (28 pts)
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Laurel (26 pts)
• Donathan (15 pts)

MoonBee: 67 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• [Kellyn (22 pts)]
• [Jenna (19 pts)]
• [James (6 pts)]

Phil: 54 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• Dom (29 pts)
• Dom (29 pts)
• [Bradley (1 pts)]
• [Bradley (1 pts)]

Doug & Bri: 52 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Sebastian (14 pts)
• Donathan (15 pts)
• [Kellyn (22 pts)]
• [James (6 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Michal and Ben - Cap'n Bass proved he has a couple moves and Laurel & Wendell met point-earning expectations this episode. That was about as good an episode as we could have hoped for, though it would have been optimal if Donathan had actually gone home. Still, he's in the dog house now and that's better than I expected.
2. Bagginses - Voting out Kellyn rather than Donathan was probably the wrong choice. That being said, that's assuming that the version of Survivor that I'm watching more closely mirrors reality than the version of Survivor that Moon is watching. In that version Kellyn is smart, socially savvy, and maybe has real reasons for divorcing her husband other than a desire to go to grad school... don't get me started. Leaving Donathan in this game leaves a real threat. That dude is smart & has a good story to back it up. Plus his Truth Bombs give him more street cred than Laurel's more subtle (though in my opinion, superior) game play. 
3. Phil - Dom's still here which means Phil's still in this game. I do feel very strange giving a higher ranking to Phil than Eric, given the 50+ difference in their scores up until now. With that being said, Angela lost Eric points this episode, whereas Phil is moving in the right direction... This is clearly flawed logic, but I'm going to stick to my guns & say that Phil has a higher ceiling than Eric this season. 
4. Eric - Angela... what is there really to say? Your performance in the reward challenge was literally absent. Your performance in the immunity challenge was actually worse. 
5. SuperDregs - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5J1mn_u0rM
6. Doug and Bri - There's nothing new really to say. the Cap'n over-performed, and Donathan under-performed. Kellyn met expectations. You won't have to add to the trophy, so that's a plus? Except that Doug is far superior to Moon at adding to the trophy, so really it feels like everyone is losing right now.
7. MoonBee - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy9_lfjQopU

Douche of the Week:

Donathan!

Survivor Ghost Island: Episodes Many

There's a lot to cover over the last few episodes, but the only thing I can really think about is how annoying Kellyn is. Her emotions are both overblown and feel really inauthentic. Her backstory is the most inexplicable of all the remaining castaways, and her determination to trust her gut has nearly led to disaster multiple times.

Before I spend far too much time dwelling on her, though, let's move on. Since the last blog we've seen the departure of Desiree, a woman who can lie so well it's just plain terrifying. (Also I didn't notice until she made the jury but her breasts are absolutely enormous. Those ladies are all I can see when she's in the frame these days.)

Next to go are Jenna and Michael. Jenna was so forgettable she's lucky I'm even giving her this sentence of space in the blog. But Michael was a blow. He played a really strong game, just ran into some bad luck along the way. Though to be honest someone that burly is always going to have a target on their back. Hopefully we'll see him again soon on an all-stars season!

Finally, Chelsea was the latest casualty in the season. Considering how often the castaways have talked about the men this season being the "strong" players, I'm happy to see that someone finally rightfully targeted the actual strongest player of the season. It was a given that Chelsea wasn't going to make it much longer considering her lack of air time. But her challenge prowess was impressive & I'm annoyed that she didn't get more respect for it.

And now here we sit. SuperDregs are in FIRST place. It's clearly temporary, and yet...

Next comes Eric, who has made an impressive run this season. But with zany Angela being his only leg to stand on, I think it's unlikely he'll make it into the end zone. Which gets us to my team & Baggins. With a slim 9 point lead and an eerily similar team, it really comes down to whether Seabass or Donathan will go the distance.

If I were any other player on the island, I'd definitely be taking Seabass with me to the finals. That dude has done nothing, and would be completely incapable of arguing his case at Final Tribal. Donathan has played a MUCH better game, and I'd love to see him make the finals (though not if it costs us the season).

The Teams:

SuperDreg: 118 points

• [Chelsea (33 pts)]
• [Chris (26 pts)]
• [Chelsea (33 pts)]
• [Chris (26 pts)]

Eric: 114 points

• [Michael (32 pts)]
• [Michael (32 pts)]
• Angela (19 pts)
• Angela (19 pts)
• [Desiree (12 pts)]

Michal & Ben: 90 points

• Wendell (26 pts)
• [Jenna (19 pts)]
• Laurel (19 pts)
• Sebastian (14 pts)
• [Desiree (12 pts)]

Bagginses: 81 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Wendell (26 pts)
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Laurel (19 pts)
• Donathan (15 pts)

MoonBee: 52 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• [Jenna (19 pts)]
• [James (6 pts)]

Phil: 50 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• Dom (27 pts)
• Dom (27 pts)
• [Bradley (1 pts)]
• [Bradley (1 pts)]

Doug & Bri: 36 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Sebastian (14 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Michal and Ben - I'm giving us the edge over Baggins due to the slight point advantage & because I think Seabass has a better shot of making the finals than Donathan. But it's basically a toss up.
2. Bagginses - I absolutely adore the Laurel/Donathan alliance. They have almost never actually agreed with each other in any strategic conversation and they probably have nothing in common at all. But they are both extremely loyal to each other & respect each others' opinions. I love the dynamic! With that being said, I think Donathan is doing well but is being held back by following Laurel's lead. Laurel is playing the best game for herself, but that means Donathan is missing out.
3. Phil - Dom's the dark horse in this pool. Phil's well behind in points but with a huge run giving him double the points, I cannot count this team out. A couple challenge wins, a properly played idol, and Phil is right in this thing.
4. Eric - Angela did better than expected this season, but I'm not expecting much more from her. Again, she'd be a great choice to take to finals, but I'm not sure that anyone with power can trust her enough to bring her along. 
5. SuperDregs - Easily the best Dreg team of Survivor Pool. Well played, dregs, well played. 
6. Doug and Bri - Doug & Bri have a decent number of players left, but they all are underperforming point-wise. Maybe with SuperChelsea gone, though, a window will open for some late point scoring?
7. MoonBee - This team is just sad. 

Douche of the Week:

I guess I'll just throw all my DoW votes from the last few weeks at Kellyn. 

Survivor Ghost Island: Episode 9

We're post merge and post Chris so this show blew wide open for potential storylines beyond the super dull civil war that was happening between Dom & Chris. Dom must have read my mind... or I guess last week's blog, because he basically stated what I did, which was that he blew a lot of resources to get rid of his nemesis. His laying low strategy seemed to kind of work, even, in that all eyes were on Wendell rather than Dom this episode.

Wendell is playing the game well, including not playing his idol at the past 2 tribal councils where I was convinced both times that he would go home if he didn't play it. Thanks for giving me a few extra gray hairs on those ones, Wendell! But Laurel is a gamer too & her reasons for not trusting him seem pretty valid to me.

Laurel & Wendell look like they will be the titans of both the physical challenges & potentially also the strategy. They won the guac reward challenge basically single-handedly. They're both reading the other players well & at least Laurel seems to be weighing all her decisions carefully. Wendell could be in trouble if he just assumes his final 4 is locked in & solid... but he does seem to be working hard to maintain those relationships.

Then, in the second half of the episode, Angela comes out of nowhere and decides to hurtle Eric's team into 2nd place in the standings. Her "disrupter" role was played to perfection. Not one person suspected her of throwing Michael under the bus, and my respect for her grew & grew until we reached the immunity challenge. Then she started acting like a crazy person, and despite winning immunity, I think her prancing around may have a negative effect on her other tribemates ability to take her too seriously.

Michael saves himself with a clutch idol play, and in the end it's Libby who goes home. I'm not sure she still knows why. And quite frankly, I'm not sure I know why either. Was she really that strong of a player? Or did that female alliance just see an easy target?

The Teams:

Bagginses: 81 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Wendell (25 pts)
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Laurel (19 pts)
• Donathan (16 pts)

Eric: 75 points

• Michael (17 pts)
• Michael (17 pts)
• Angela (20 pts)
• Angela (20 pts)
• Desiree (1 pts)

SuperDreg: 60 points

• Chelsea (4 pts)
• [Chris (26 pts)]
• Chelsea (4 pts)
• [Chris (26 pts)]

Michal & Ben: 58 points

• Wendell (25 pts)
• Jenna (5 pts)
• Laurel (19 pts)
• Sebastian (8 pts)
• Desiree (1 pts)

MoonBee: 38 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• Jenna (5 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

Doug & Bri: 30 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Sebastian (8 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

Phil: 24 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• Dom (14 pts)
• Dom (14 pts)
• [Bradley (1 pts)]
• [Bradley (1 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Michal and Ben - I'm sticking with my girl Laurel to win this whole thing, so I'm keeping us in 1st place for now. Jenna & Seabass are looking like dead weight, but hopefully that means they rack up points going deep as coattail riders...
2. Bagginses - Baggins is down 1 player but could have 3 of the "final 4" if Wendell's plan actually happens. Is that a long shot to happen? Probably. But it's the only "final 4" that we know of now which I think lends it a little extra importance this season. 
3. Eric - Wow, Eric, nice run this episode! Really strong play from your team this episode. Now the question is if they can follow it up with another solid episode. Michael needs to get the target off his back ASAP for this team to have a legit chance. On the plus side, I think he's capable of pulling that off.
4. Doug and Bri - Doug & Bri are leading in the 2nd tier of teams, but things really aren't looking great for any of this group. I see the most potential with this team though.
5. Phil - Dom's solid reflection on his situation gives this team some hope. If he can pull out some idol plays, immunity challenge wins, etc. the double point value could put this team back in contention. But there is a LOT of ground to make up, so he needs to get on that fast.
6. MoonBee - With only Kellyn & Jenna on this team, MoonBee is pretty much toast this season. 
7. SuperDregs - Chelsea is sticking around which means each player voted out ahead of her will continue to be docked 1 point until she goes home. Which will inevitably happen in some kind of collateral damage scenario. 

Douche of the Week:

There were a few good options, but I'm going to give it to Wendell for not even trying at the immunity challenge.