Sunday, December 16, 2018

Survivor DG: Episode 12

Image result for mike nick survivor


The epic struggle between Christian and Mike reached its resolution, with the latter winning their war of attrition. The guillotining of Christian illuminated the savvy of the remaining castaways, as they coldly offed their greatest threat the moment the opportunity was presented. This classic season has played out like a George R.R. Martin novel. The most powerful characters have patiently pulled strings from the shadows to topple the world's most featured and charismatic leaders. As in Game of Thrones, the edit has devastatingly misled the audience, endearing us with heroes before stunningly pulling their trapdoors to doom.

We're left with six castaways, perhaps less charming than those they've demolished, but worthy of the final battle. Let's reverse power-rank them in order of their chances of winning.

6. Angelina fancied herself a power player before being humbled into a shapeless burden like the sacks of rice of which she's fashioned her identity. Angelina is a decaf Natalie - disliked and disrespected by all, crippled by undeveloped corporate social skill, abrasiveness and a lack of self-awareness. The difference between Angelina and Natalie is the former lies within three standard deviations of bothersome, so her competitors are willing to tolerate her presence. At this point her competitors all recognize Angelina has no chance of winning at Final Tribal, so each is actually looking to get her there.

5. Kara has a well-rounded resumé including challenge victories, notable moves and backstabs. She's built it without really pissing anyone off except her ex-boyfriend. Yet it's difficult to envision a scenario in which she actually garners the most votes from this jury. It's hard to identify a jury member who would give her the most credit.

4. Nick has been an interesting bob-and-weave player throughout the season, forming corny-nicknamed alliances he appeared to be on the submissive end of but wasn't. At times it appeared his mind was coming unhinged. At times his partnerships seemed to be flagging. He botched his idol in the last episode. He's never dominated, but he does have enough feathers in his cap to convince the Jury of his worth. And convincing juries is what Nick does for a living.

3. Davie has played a world-class game. He's crafted trustworthy relationships without compromising his purpose. He's performed at challenges without attracting a bullseye. He's turned difficult situations on their heads. He's played the short game concurrently with the long. He's a player who could function in any group with any season. Davie is a truly awesome player. His problem is he was on the wrong side of the Christian vote and he's been identified by Lord Varys as next to go.

2. Alison likely hasn't done enough to distinguish herself to the Jury, but there is still time. Could Alison get to Final Tribal as part of a late Female Goliath Alliance and then upend Kara? Absolutely. Could she go on a convincing run of immunities and blindsides down the stretch? Certainly. Does she have the stones to sever the correct throats at the right moment? Without question.

1. Mike is a masterful strategic/social player in the vein of Richard Hatch and Cirie Fields. It takes great finesse to call the shots while letting others think they're calling the shots but still get credit for calling the shots at the end. Mike has been the puppet master throughout. He's disarmed his opponents instead of skirmishing with them. Mike will consider who he should take to Final Tribal more carefully and skillfully than anyone else. But when you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die. Mike's time in the shadows is coming to a close, and he will have difficulty functioning out in the light.

___

A to Z have a humongous lead and I'm not smart enough to figure out if it's prohibitive. I am pretty sure it will be their team or ours, and we'll need Mike to win it. Possibly in a sweep. 

9 comments:

Eric said...

1. Headline from the GoldDerby: ‘Survivor’ season 37 finale power rankings: Nick Wilson, Kara Kay or Davie Rickenbacker will be ‘Sole Survivor’

2. The Gold Derby also predicts Lady Gaga to win best actress

Eric said...


1. Christian looked like he had the wind taken out of his sails. Was this because: A - he missed Gabby, B- he was really hungry, C- he was leaving the show so the producers gave more time to the others? I'd guess A and C.

2. Angelina DOW.

3. The writing is masterful but the power rankings leave me perplexed. What has Alison done to win this game? Mike could win based on likability but that's his main claim to victory. Davie and Nick have shown the most courage.

4. For my ego can you please redo the scores as if I'd selected Kara twice? Make assumptions on how the draft would have played out under that scenario (if necessary run multiple sims and take an average). I'm fairly confident this would move me out of last place.

8. During his 6 hour immunity win it was reported that Probst and Christian discussed brining back the auction. Presumably they also discussed swamp water and I'd like to collect my swamp water points.

Michal Greenberg said...

Agreed with the first half of Eric's point #3, especially this gem: "We're left with six castaways, perhaps less charming than those they've demolished, but worthy of the final battle."

Alison seems to be overrated yet again, and should definitely be below Nick in my estimation. Your description on Nick is perfect, just doesn't seem to match where you've ranked him.

Phil said...

Eric, sometimes the Ego takes a hit...

Incredible blog before the finale, I admire such writing skills that I do not possess.

For a while now people have been trying to get rid of Alison because they thought she was the biggest threat. Don’t rule her out.

I can’t wait to hear Nick’s pitch if he makes it. I want to see if he’s really that good at swinging jurys. What has he really done?

Mike has played a great game, so good the others may keep him around because they think they can beat him. Angelina has not shot and to be honest, I’m sick of hearing about the damn rice! She’s on my team and she’s DOW until the end (1 episode...)

David is my favorite thus far. He has made big moves, blindsides, and well played idols. His idol decision in this last episode did have me yelling at the tv. 75% chance to extend the idol, to vote out someone he doesn’t get out all because of some wind?!?! The fire blew left so I’m going to forego all common sense and strategic decision making ARRRGGHHH. That said, he has worked to be on the right side of most votes and his idol play has been great. He didn’t fall for Nick’s misdirection at all.

I haven’t addressed Kara because nothing about her game has stood out. Could be wrong but I would want to take Angelina and Kara to the finals. Any of the others wins agains those two.

Way better than last season and such amazing blogging. Thanks for letting me tag along even though I’m always last to post!

Doug said...

I'm voting Angelina for DoW as well. She sucks and has no shot, but everyone wants her next to them at the finale.

Good blog, Moon. Mike and Allison were a bit over-hyped. Davie and Nick have a better chance than some think despite their misplays this last episode. I would rank both of them over Alison for the final winner. Mike's rank is good, but I don't think he has a lock by any means. He has done a great job of making other people look like they were the decision makers, but the final piece of that puzzle is convincing everyone at the end that it was REALLY him behind the curtain. With Boston Rob it was very obvious who was running the show after someone joined the jury. Mike has been so subtle about it, I'm not sure it is going to be very easy to convince the jury it was him. Perhaps the "double Mike points" hopefulness is making him look stronger in this category than what it really is in my opinion.

Can't believe we've gone through a whole blog and multiple comments with no one mentioning the absurdity of Jeff's immunity comments. I'll be good if I never have to hear Jeff talking relentlessly about contestants balls dropping, spreading apart, and sticking together ever again. Except I'm going to go look to see if someone on Youtube made it into a montage right after I type this. BUT AFTER THAT, never again...

Doug said...

Not from this season, but same challenge - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rKypjuzmRI&t=22s

Survivor producers - retire this one por favor.

Eric said...

CAN"T WAIT FOR THE FINALE! I FEEL LIKE YELLING WITH GLEE!

My rankings of the final 7 in particular order.

7. Kara. I like her. She's my Obi-Wan. But she's done nothing other than win 1 or 2 challenges.

6. Angelina. She's annoying. She has weak social skills. But consider her strengths: the rice (I hate to play the rice card), the master negotiating skills, the subtle jacket request, the fake warmth toward competitors, AND she's done it while wearing the same tights the entire time. People might vote for her over Kara because she tried.

5. ...Alison. I almost forgot about her.. I'm often distracted while watching the show, so if you all consider her a contender I must be missing some (many?) key parts.

4. Mike. I like him. I could easily see him winning. Would he get more votes than Davie?

3. Nick. He's put his heart into winning this thing. He shows emotion. He has creative alliance names.

2. Davie. What's not to like about this guy?

1. Christian - the guy is a robot genius. He will find a way to get back on the show through a loophole, a time warp, or a filibuster that will result in Jeff Probst relenting and putting him back on the show.

It’s been a crushing performance by Zack and Andrea. Tom thinks he might have a shot. Good luck to both teams.

Margot said...

Thank you, Eric, for making me laugh a lot this morning! And I couldn't agree more about #6 (those tights!) and #5 (she's done nothing!.

And, I am also with you, Doug, about the last challenge...in so many ways. Did any of the contestants snigger or groan while Probst was discussing their balls? I don't think so, and it confirms my hunch that they must tune him out completely while competing.

Davie has been my favorite all along, ever since he introduced me to Blerds and confessed that he didn't know how to talk to "Caucasians."

But I am eager to see if Eric is right about Christian! Just a few hours to wait now...

Margot said...

P.S. Great Blog, Tom!