Winners At War: Episodes 10 & 11

I often compare Survivor to poker tournaments. Both require difficult-to-quantify degrees of skill and luck to win. Strategy is endlessly deep and creative in both. But within a single game, that strategy is insignificant relative to the variance of the game. I've thrown out a number of castaways as potential GOATs should they win this season. But two to six seasons is no sample size in a game with so much variance. It might take a hundred seasons to determine someone's skill for Survivor. For all we know, the true GOAT could be someone who played once and quietly expired before the Merge. It could even be Vytas. Not.

But the game doesn't really behave like a poker tournament. As poker tournaments progress, players extend advantages over their competitors by acquiring more chips. A big stack is a weapon. In Survivor, it's often a disadvantage. Smart opponents preemptively strike down the "chip leaders" before their advantage can be realized at Final Tribal.

Bicycle racing is the better analogy. The leader of a bike race sits in its most difficult position. The leaders face more air resistance than those drafting behind them. It's harder for the leader to progress than it is for the coattail riders in the peloton. Leading, in fact, usually ends up destroying the leader. Here's a dramatic example, featuring our friend Mara Abbott:



Mara may have been the most impactful member of this race. She may even have been "the best." But she didn't win this one. Her followers identified her as the big threat and chased her down right before the finish. Mara needed the race to be over a kilometer earlier. She didn't quite time it right - or perhaps there just was no way to time it right.

It takes tremendous physical effort to chase down a biker hell-bent on a gold medal. In Survivor, all it takes is shared recognition that the leader is in fact leading. Savvy players eliminate their greatest competition with alacrity. Survivor is a race to a finish line. But you lose the race if you build too big a lead, perhaps any lead. It's a fascinating, delicate balance. It's been starkly illustrated in the post-Merge world of Winners At War.

Standings

Ben & Michal - 94 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 18
Sarah - 18
Nick - 12
Tony - 31
Danni - 4

Baggins - 90 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sophie - 18
Parvati - 18
Tyson - 12
Tony - 31
Amber - 1

MoonBee - 83 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 18
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 15
Natalie - 9

Doug - 64 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 9

Phil - 61 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 18
Ethan - -2
Michele - 19
Amber - 1

Eric - 45 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 12
Ben - 15
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

I've been rewatching Game of Thrones. It's not as good as I hoped on second viewing. It's not poorly made or anything (at least through five seasons, where I'm at) but it depends on plot to do the dramatic heavy lifting. It's not as compelling when you know what's gonna happen. Which I'm sure would be true of Survivor too. Anyway, I'd forgotten the nastiest scheme Ramsay Bolton comes up with to torture Theon: after a few weeks of standard torture Ramsay hires a couple hot girls to wake Theon up and seduce him (not a challenging ask in Theon's case). Right at the moment of insertion, Ramsay comes in and cuts Theon's genitalia off. (Why doesn't Melissa want to watch this show?? I have no idea).

That's what happened to Tyson and Big Eric Schwartz this season. They went through a few weeks of standard torture before getting exiled to the Edge of Extinction. They recognized hope as their most dangerous enemy and bottled it deep within. At the exact moment their fortunes appeared to turn, they were bamboozled. Their fate was not redemption, but rather an even worse version of torture. Now they know never to hope again.


5. MoonBee

We had five players left after episode seven. Four episodes later, we have one. In the last month there's only been one elimination who wasn't on our team, and that player (Tyson) had already been eliminated a month ago. It's been a precipitous fall. I'm just glad it happened to Eric Schwartz first.

Speaking of Eric, he's the other player with Ben on his team. Meaning nobody in this pool needs to worry about Ben. Not that I believe anyone was losing sleep over the cowboy's chances. He doesn't seem to get much respect from other castaways or the viewing public. He's certainly a strong and accomplished player, but even a surprise WaW victory wouldn't put him in GOAT consideration.


4. Baggins

It was surprising to see Sophie confess she'd considered herself a "Bottom Tier Winner" before this season. I remembered her victory as dominant. But that memory might be biased since she was on my team. In any case, Sophie proved to the world and to herself that she's a Top Tier Player. More importantly, we found out the Michal Greenberg doppelgänger is in fact engaged to a Ben Greenberg lookalike. Cheers, Sophie.

Also, RIP Baggins. He was the bike racer who destroyed his quads to win the big climb to the mountaintop and had nothing left for the final chase.


3. Doug

Nick keeps grinding, but he needs a huge and visible move to convince these former champs he's worthy of a second belt. You could say the same of Denise, but she already made her huge and visible move. Sharp as these final few are, they'll identify Denise as an ideal mate for Final Tribal. She's got a good shot at final three and almost no shot at Sole Survivor. Doug needs all his players to contribute to the thirty point hole he finds himself in.


2. Phil

Jeremy faced a rare and imperative scenario in Episode 11: who he voted for determined his own fate. If he'd voted for Sarah - as he intended until a few minutes before Tribal - it would have been him heading to the Edge. Jeremy needed to trust Tony and switch his vote to Sophie to survive. He appeared to wrestle with this abrupt and stressful decision, but got the right grail in the end. He chose wisely. If Jeremy hadn't trusted Tony in the crucible, here's what would have happened:



Also note that Jeremy would have been skeletonized if Tony hadn't decided to save him. Tony has been searching for shields all season. In this episode he decided to save one GOAT (Jeremy) at the expense of another (Sophie).


1. Ben & Michal

We've been talking about Tony waiting to flip the switch all season. He waited and waited and then Wednesday night he flipped the switch so violently it ripped out the electrical socket, the drywall and the pillars the game stood upon.

I won't recap Tony's incendiary episode. I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it "one of the most stunning and dominant episodes of Survivor ever" as Mr. McAtee did, but I'd agree it was "classic, chaotic Tony, and also a magnum opus." Indeed, Tony reasserted himself as a GOAT. What made it truly impressive was how long he waited to take the mask off. 

Winners At War: Episode 9

As the immediacy of a $2 million vote hastens, the post-merge world is beginning to fracture. Long-held alliances and metastrategies have run their course, having delivered their disciples to the final ten. Each player can now visualize a path to Final Tribal and the votes needed to win it. The horses of this race are eyeing the tracks they'd like to gallop to the finish line.

Standings

MoonBee - 83 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 21
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 15
Natalie - 6

Ben & Michal - 69 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 15
Sarah - 17
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Danni - 4

Baggins - 66 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sophie - 21
Parvati - 15
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 61 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 6

Phil - 60 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 17
Ethan - -2
Michele - 19
Amber - 1

Eric - 42 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 9
Ben - 15
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Tyson has wormed his way back into the game. He's taken advantage of the post-merge chaos - and generated much of it - to carve out a niche of safety. His safe standing is only temporary, but Tyson does have a clearer path to victory than many of his opponents. With everyone making the jury, an old-school survivor could garner many delegates at Final Tribal. By then, Tyson may have expanded his coalition to the New School. He's one of the GOATs, he's got a new lease on life and he's building steam.


5. MoonBee

Ouch. The big decision to square Adam finally came back to bite me. The worst part is that I insisted on taking him over Tyson and had already counted my chickens on that one. Now Tyson is amongst the favorites with ten remaining and Adam is hopelessly serving out his days on the Edge.

The fact is we never had much of a team. Variance and timing dangled fruits of glory in front of our noses. But it was just the hope of a lousy poker player with an early big stack. Wendell nor Adam ever established any traction. Both came in too hot. Neither ever tasted a slice of humble pie. They spent their whole seasons teetering like those in this week's Immunity Challenge before inevitably splashing into the ocean.


4. Doug

Nick's desperation is obvious. You know someone is desperate when they plead at Tribal for everyone else to play the game. All that means is nobody is playing with you. This one came off particularly pathetic because we'd just seen a wild ten-minute edit of everyone playing the game. Playing hard. Nick is a survivor in every sense of the word. It wouldn't be surprising to see him navigate his way to the end like a Frogger player. But it would be to see many people vote him worthy of a second title.


3. Ben & Michal

The edges are fraying for Sarah. Everyone was suspicious of her game coming in. While it appeared to be a completely benevolent gesture, gifting her Chinese to Nick sounded an Amber Alert for Sarah's competitors. She instantly drew heat, and the Next Time On shows it's only gonna get hotter. A few days ago, Sarah seemed like someone who could lead a three-player "inner alliance" to Final Tribal; now it's hard to imagine many players willing to take her that far.


2. Phil

I'm not actually beating myself up for taking a second Adam over Tyson. That made sense strategically. But I am wondering what the hell we were thinking in taking Wendell over Jeremy. Dammit, I didn't even like Wendell originally. And Jeremy is one of my all-time favorite players, a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and a contender for true GOAT. He's playing his usual flawless, passionate, determined game. He's winning friends and influencing people. He's outwitting, outplaying and outlasting. Beast.


1. Baggins

I just texted Bag asking if he's caught up on Survivor. He didn't even know how many episodes behind he was. He couldn't remember if he'd seen the Merge yet. I imagine he gave up on his team a month ago. Imagine his shock if he loaded up this blog and saw his name atop the Power Rankings.

Bag's team continues to bolster. I talked about Tyson's renaissance. With Sarah slipping, Sophie is now the chip leader. But this was an especially encouraging episode for Tony. He hasn't called many shots or even made many "Tony" moves other than one pointless trip to the Spy Shack. Mostly he just talks about keeping Big Threats together and then votes for whoever Kim and/or Jeremy tell him to. But he's starting to shift gears. Tony hasn't exhibited a winner's persona this season, but he could easily make Final Tribal.

Winners At War: Episode 8

The drama meter rose a couple notches this week. Tyson edged Boston Rob in one of the most exciting challenges in Survivor history and returned to the game. The tribes merged. Sophie almost froze to death. Intrigue deepened when we learned everyone is part of the jury. Adam survived another close shave and Wendell was finally sent packing. It was an exciting episode and likely a harbinger for a thrilling stretch run.

Standings

MoonBee - 75 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 6

Ben & Michal - 63 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Danni - 2

Baggins - 63 points
Boston Rob - 11
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 61 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 6

Phil - 52 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -2
Michele - 13
Amber - 1

Eric - 39 points
Boston Rob - 11
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 9
Ben - 13
Danni - 2

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Big Eric is off the hook. With Rob accumulating points faster than anyone on any island and Tyson returning to the game, Eric's team won't go down in infamy as the worst ever assembled. The Survivor Gods punished Rob for claiming he was the GOAT last week with an excruciatingly close and critical challenge loss. That was one the five most exciting challenges ever played - and one of the five most devastating losses.

Melissa and I decided Sandra was correct to leave the game. We all blasted her for giving up. But let's be real. There was no way an empty-pocketed Sandra was going to win a challenge against players with advantages to get back in the game. Obviously she wouldn't have won the one that actually took place. Further, Sandra would've had no footing even if she did get back in. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it's preposterous to envision a scenario in which Sandra could win a Final Tribal vote for $2 million. We're talking about a 10,000 to 1 parlay here. Is a 10,000 to 1 shot worth weeks of misery and boredom? I really don't blame her.


5. Doug

After dead-and-buried Eric, the rankings get very tight. I stared at the sheet for ten minutes before putting Doug here. Like many DFS lineups, it comes down to deciding on two-player switches. Doug has a two-player switch of Jeremy/Denise from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Tony. Jeremy is locked in like an expert air traffic controller on ritalin, but Denise has no allies, no clout and might've been toast this week if she hadn't won immunity. Tony doesn't have the traction necessary to garner votes at Final Tribal, but his history and demeanor suggest he's capable of mounting a charge.


4. Ben & Michal

This was a sneaky-awful episode for the Greenbergs. They didn't lose a player, but they didn't get one back either. They gained just two points in a points-bonanza episode. They fell further behind us, dropped into a tie with Baggins and can feel Doug's breath on their necks. But the worst part of it was what happened to Nick. He had no idea Wendell was the target and suddenly finds himself next in line to the slaughterhouse.


3. MoonBee

It was nice to take in the views from the summit for a week. But now we're in danger of falling all the way down the mountain. (Well, not all the way - Big Eric will be there to break our fall). Wendell's uninspiring run came to an end, or at least a hiatus, and Adam Squared continues to live in hot water. For a player who got every vote at Final Tribal and (I believe) set a record for the highest-scoring season in pool history, Adam sure makes it nervewracking. Nobody trusts him. He's physically unimpressive. He never has a stable alliance. He's constantly getting votes at Tribal.

But these are the ways of the New School. This is actually how Adam wants it. He'd rather go stag to the big dance. If you're not bound by an alliance, your vote is always available. Your strategy is malleable. You might actually earn more respect from your peers by breaking an alliance rather than keeping it. This season isn't looking promising for Adam, but he's wriggled his way out of worse jams before.


2. Baggins

So much for making fun of Bag's team. Wednesday night, Bag executed the most stunning turnaround this side of Joe Biden's Super Tuesday. Tyson vaulted back into the game, then slipped right back into a fresh voting block. Tony found himself on the right side of another alliance, Boston Rob earned another bushel of points and Sophie's teeth stopped chattering. It was an epic episode for Team Sanders.

Now take a look at this team. It's a two-player switch from our team, Bag's Tyson/Tony vs. our Adam/Ben. We have two Adams and a twelve-point cushion but I still think that's advantage: Bag. It's also a two player switch of Sophie/Tyson from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Nick. Again that looks like Bag has the nod. Bag's remaining players have no current correlation, however, so it might be difficult for him to get multiple players deep.


1. Phil

Somehow Phil lost a player and moved up the power rankings. He sits in fifth place, 23 points back, but he's got the best remaining players. Michele's prospects took another downturn, but Sarah and Jeremy live at the top of the food chain. We've heard some talk of a gritty blue-collar alliance including Jeremy, Sarah, Tony and Michele. If that alliance seizes control of the post-merge world, Phil will ride it to victory like a surfer who's discovered the perfect wave.