Sunday, December 18, 2016

XvM: Finale

 The finale was a fitting end to what was an entertaining & largely unpredictable season. This is twice now that we've fallen into the Survivor producers' trap though - last season Aubry was a dreg pick because of a panic attack, and this season Hannah was a dreg for the exact same reason. Both made it to the finals, though neither won. If someone has a panic attack at the start of next season - extremely unlikely - they should be the #1 draft pick.

 I feel like Adam's strategy this whole season was to be completely unpredictable & unreliable, which is weirdly what he accused Hannah of being as a negative in Final Tribal. But look at his play throughout the season: the Millennials largely didn't trust him in the beginning because he kept flip-flopping between the weirdos & the cool kids. Next he turned on FigTayls & sided with Ken & Jess. Then he reunited with Zeke only to turn on him again. He was blunt in a socially awkward way, and he seemed to abuse the weird relationship he had with Jay. Why Jay likes this guy after being repeatedly backstabbed by him, I'll never know!

But he did seem to wear his heart on his sleeve & he used his "you can steal a reward" advantage skillfully... for this season. If he tried to do the same in the next season against a slew of pros, he'd probably be taken out immediately. He could also argue being a competitor in challenges. All in all, not the greatest victor in Survivor history, but not the worst either.

Who are the worst Survivor winners in the history of the show? Here's my top 5, starting with the worst of the worst:

  1. Chris from Vanuatu
  2. Fabio
  3. Brian, the used car salesman
  4. Jenna Morasca
  5. Michelle from last season

Overall I think the pool of winners has actually been quite strong. Looking back at it in my History tab in the spreadsheet, I definitely remember being upset at some of the people who have been declared victors in moment & thinking they didn't deserve it. But after enough time, they mostly all had solid strategies that were just plain better than some of their competitors.

This was a much smarter group than most all-newbie seasons. And a well-deserved win for Moon & Melissa, who put together a team where everyone earned a minimum of 30 points.

In the end, I was actually rooting for Hannah. Hannah, you may not have won a million dollars, but you did turn this very critical fan 180 degrees. I thought her FT argument was really solid & am honestly surprised she didn't get any votes. Was it too little too late? Did she lay low & act like a coattail rider for too long? Or did she just piss too many people off by not turning against David sooner in the game?


The Teams:

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 180 points 
  1. Chris - 24 pts
  2. Adam - 89 pts
  3. Will - 33 pts
  4. Hannah - 34 pts
Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 152 points
  1. Ken - 56 pts
  2. David - 59 pts
  3. Figgy - 7 pts
  4. Taylor - 30 pts
Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 82 points
  1. Zeke - 33 pts
  2. Jay - 41 pts
  3. Michaela - 14 pts
  4. Paul - -6 pts
Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 71 points
  1. Michelle - 25 pts
  2. Bret - 31 pts
  3. Jessica - 18 pts
  4. Lucy - -3 pts
Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 27 points
  1. CeCe - -2 pts
  2. Sunday - 29 pts

Prop Bets:


-->
People involvedCastaways InvolvedMethod of measurementStakesAnd the winner is...
Melissa v. DougHannah v. LucyLongevity1 drinkMelissa
Doug v. BagBag's entire teamDown to 0-1 players before any other team1 drinkBag
Ben v. MoonMichaela v. Chris3:2 LongevitydrinksMoon
Ben v. BagMichaela v. FiggyLongevity1 drinkBen
Moon v. BagChris & Adam v. Ken & DavidLongevity1 drink + 1 bonus drink if both players are gone before the other team loses anyoneBag
Ben v. BagZeke & Michaela v. Ken & DavidLongevity1 drink + 1 bonus drink if both players are gone before the other team loses anyoneBag + Bonus
Michal v. Doug & Moon & MelissaFiggy & TaylorAre they still a couple by the reunion show1 drinkMoon & Melissa
Michal & Bag v. Bri & MoonMillenials v. GenXtotal points between all players (by draft)1 drinkMichal & Bag
Ben/Michal v. MoonSea Dogs v. HHtotal points of each team$50 bottle o' boozeMoon


Next Season:

I'm so excited!! It's 20 returning castaways & the cast is chock full of past winners, fan faves, schemers, and loony tunes - I think you already know who I'm talking about. Here's the break-down:

Past winners:
  • Sandra - the only 2x winner, she's risking her current inarguable position of being the greatest Survivor of all time by coming back for a 3rd try. 
  • Tony - the cop who made paranoid flip-flopping a winning strategy.
  • JT - one of my personal favorites ever since he won me the pool in his first season. Also known for being the fool who secretly shipped Evil Russell an immunity idol across tribal lines based on a completely inaccurate hunch.
The fan faves:
  • Malcolm - aka the Original Manbun. #Thisismyteamnameifweendupdraftinghim
  • Ozzy - Needs no introduction - this will be his FOURTH season of Survivor. Dare I say it? Past his prime?
  • Cirie - also her FOURTH season! These two must love pain. I do love Cirie, she's uber crafty. Unfortunately so is everyone else this season.
  • Caleb - medevacked 2 seasons ago, he was probably a shoo-in for the next returning castaways season. He was a strong competitor & had a big heart. 
  • Tai - Caleb's return wouldn't be complete without his opposites-attract bro-mate! The real question, though: will Mark the Chicken also make a comeback?
The schemers:
  • Andrea - I think she lost her first season because she only played the "I'm hot, take me along for the ride" strategy. Then she over-schemed on her second outing. It will be interesting to see how she plays it her third time around.
  • Aubry - the runner-up from 2 seasons ago. I think we all unanimously (except maybe Doug & Bri) agreed she was the deserving winner, but she wasn't quite able to pull it off 
  • Jeff Varner - Probst's perennial favorite. He seemed like an over-schemer his 2nd time back to Survivor, but then pulled it together & was looking to be a real threat. Then he got injured, which I think was just enough of a reason for his tribe to vote him out.
  • Michaela - challenge beast that was voted out when she proved that she was quite clever too
  • Zeke - not announced on the Reunion show, but I've seen multiple sources now that list him as a returning player. Perhaps he came in off the waitlist? 
  • Ciera - the woman who will never be able to live down that she voted her mom off the show.
  • Sarah Lacina - the cop who made a "Cops 4eva!" deal with Tony & then got insta-backstabbed. I'm excited to see her back, I think she'll do well on a season of veterans. And now she knows about Tony, so there's no fear of "he's a cop, he must be honest" bias kicking in this time. 
  • Troyzan - yeah. They brought this guy back. I know that I'm merging my memories of him with his co-star Tarzan, which is certainly not helpful for him. But I'm just not going to get over this name. Actually, the more I think about it, I think he was taken out by a combo of the powerhouse-that-was-Kim and the insanity-that-was-Colton, but had been quite strong before that. 
And these guys:
  • Debbie - my all-time fave loony tunes... after Philip Jessum Herring, that is. Debbie may have a redemption story akin to Coach's, or she may prove to us that she's already reached her ceiling when it comes to Survivor. And what about her Red Lobster ceiling? Her chemistry ceiling? Her competitive juggling ceiling?
  • Brad Culpepper - universally hated in his season, but for the life of me I can't remember why! His wife was a challenge beast & paranoid coattail-rider who long outlasted my memory of him. 
  • Sierra - from Worlds Apart, she came in 5th, but I BARELY remember her. She's from Texas, yes? Maybe a beauty queen? 
  • Hali - also from Worlds Apart, and I also remember her only vaguely, though I seem to think she's a stronger player than Sierra.


Sunday, December 11, 2016

XvM: Ep 12

Another two down & the finale coming up - overall a very entertaining season that feels like it will give us a lot more action, intrigue & blindsides before all is said & done.

The pool probably got a little lucky that Dreggy McBoatface's team went out before anyone else. Sunday held on like a goat clinging to a mountainside, and I wasn't convinced that our team would outlast the dregs. The Housewives were in some serious danger there as well.

I was quite pleased to see Will go. He had no subtlety to his game. I found it hard to believe that he really thought he could spend a whole episode talking about making big moves & padding his resume, and then the next week think that things could go back to normal & he'd be everyone's friend & everyone would trust him & keep underestimating him.

Speaking of trust, why in God's name is Jay listening to anything Adam says? That guy is so duplicitous... and obviously so. It's kind of shocking Adam is still in the game considering how clumsily he's played it. But I guess he's making it work for him. People must be thinking, "yeah, he's really wishy-washy, paranoid, and surprisingly good at challenges. But he's so painfully blunt & scrawny-looking that there's no way he'll get votes at Final Tribal." I'm also wondering if he told everyone that he gave Jay his reward-stealing advantage? If not, he should have a GIANT target on his back. Here's how I rank people in favor of winning:

  1. Adam
  2. Jay
  3. David
  4. Bret
  5. Ken
  6. Hannah
David is no longer the biggest threat to win the game imo because he's been forced to lay low for a few episodes now & not make any big moves. Ever since Zeke got voted out he's been sidelined by fear. Adam is making moves and never seems to be in danger of getting voted out. Plus he can throw the whole "my mom has cancer" bomb out there at final tribal & that'll probably lock it up for him. Jay can argue the case that he's been in danger the whole time, he scrapped through without really backstabbing anyone on the jury & being really good at challenges, a la Mike from season 30. 

Bret would probably have to go with the "everyone likes me & I never backstabbed anyone" route but that's about it. Which wouldn't work if he's up against Jay who has as similar argument & then some, and he has more friends on the jury. Ken & Hannah have no chance imo. 



The Teams:

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 89 points 
  1. [Chris]
  2. Adam
  3. [Will]
  4. Hannah
Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 82 points
  1. Ken
  2. David 
  3. [Figgy]
  4. [Taylor]
Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 72 points
  1. [Zeke]
  2. Jay 
  3. [Michaela]
  4. [Paul]
Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 54 points
  1. [Michelle]
  2. Bret
  3. [Jessica]
  4. [Lucy]
Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 27 points
  1. [CeCe]
  2. [Sunday]

Power Rankings:
  1. Hannah & the Homeboys: This pool is looking a lot tighter than I expected at this point in the game. Hannah & the Homeboys are clearly still the favorites what with having the most points & my favorite to win the season. But a lot can happen between now & Final Tribal that could switch things up! I'm just hoping Hannah doesn't make FT, she drives me crazy!
  2. DK Double Stacker: David is still a strong contender & Ken has that Legacy Advantage that may turn out to be cool... or it could be a lemon. Baggadocious is hoping it'll result in some major points somehow in order to contend with HH. 
  3. Sea Dogs: With Jay holding on to the Steal-A-Reward advantage & being a beat in challenges, it is still conceivable that this team could win. Definitely a dark horse in this race, but still possible! It would have been sweet if he'd held on to his immunity idol for one more tribal... ah well.
  4. Housewives: I like Bret so much more by the end of this season than I did when we drafted. But that won't be enough to save the Housewives - they are the strong favorites to be making the next addition to the trophy. 

Douche of the Week:
Will.



Monday, December 5, 2016

XvM: Eps 10 & 11

The blog delinquency continues. No time for a real post, but wanted to share updated scores as we head into the final stretch. I'm getting rid of the individual castaways' scores in the blog - it takes too long to update that. For details on scoring, see the spreadsheet. Other suggestion for stuff I include in the blog that you don't really read or care about? I'd love to make posting these easier/less time consuming so that I'm actually able to do this more regularly!


The Teams:

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 76 points
  1. Ken
  2. David 
  3. [Figgy]
  4. [Taylor]
MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 75 points 
  1. [Chris]
  2. Adam
  3. Will 
  4. Hannah
Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 71 points
  1. [Zeke]
  2. Jay 
  3. [Michaela]
  4. [Paul]
Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 54 points
  1. [Michelle]
  2. Bret
  3. [Jessica]
  4. [Lucy]
Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 12 points
  1. [CeCe]
  2. Sunday

Power Rankings:
  1. Hannah & the Homeboys: Clear front-runners with Adam suddenly looking like the one to beat at final tribal. I really hope Hannah goes home soon!
  2. DK Double Stacker: David beat his Goliath, which in this case was a young gay Okie... a major victory for him & Baggadocious. Ken proving to be not the brightest, but this is still a strong contender. 
  3. Sea Dogs: Could Jay win it all? I think maybe. Probably still not be enough for us to win the whole thing though. .
  4. Housewives: Bret won't win. 


Douche of the Week:
Ep 10: David. Ep 11: Ken.