NFL Picks Week 13

Really Like:

Jets -3 over REDSKINS

Packers -7 over GIANTS

Cowboys -4.5 over CARDINALS

Chargers -2.5 over JAGUARS

Like:

Ravens -6.5 over BROWNS

Broncos +1 over VIKINGS

If Forced to Choose:

DOLPHINS -3 over Raiders

Falcons -2.5 over TEXANS

Titans +1.5 over BILLS

SEAHAWKS +3 over Eagles

Bengals +6.5 over STEELERS

Panthers +3.5 over BUCS

49ERS -13 over Rams

SAINTS -9 over Lions

Chiefs +7 over BEARS

PATRIOTS -20 over Colts

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 5-2-1

Like season record: 5-1-1

If forced to choose season record: 7-7-1

All games season record: 17-10-3

Bag's NFL Picks Week 12

Really Like:
Packers    -4.5    at        Lions
Panthers    -3    at        Colts

Like:
Bengals    -7.5    hosting    Browns
Texans    -4    at        Jaguars
Titans        -3.5    hosting    Bucs
Bears        +4    at        Raiders
Seahawks    -3.5    hosting    Redskins
Patriots    -3.5    at        Eagles
Saints        -7    hosting    Giants

If forced to choose:
Dolphins    +7    at        Cowboys
Niners    +3.5    at        Ravens
Rams        -3    hosting    Cardinals
Bills        +9    at        Jets
Falcons    -9.5    hosting    Vikings
Broncos    +6    at        Chargers
Steelers    -10.5    at        Chiefs


Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    6-2
Like:         7-8
Forced:    14-19-2
All Games:    26-29-2

NFL Picks Week 12

Really Like:

Panthers -3.5 over COLTS

Packers -6 over LIONS

Texans -3 over JAGUARS

Patriots -3 over EAGLES

RAIDERS -5 over Bears

Like:

Dolphins +7 over COWBOYS

49ers +3 over RAVENS

TITANS -3 over Bucs

SAINTS -7 over Giants

If Forced to Choose:

Steelers -10.5 over CHIEFS

Broncos +6.5 over CHARGERS

SEAHAWKS -4 over Redskins

FALCONS -9.5 over Vikings

RAMS -3 over Cardinals

Browns +7.5 over BENGALS

JETS -8 over Bills

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 1-2

Like season record: 2-0-1

If forced to choose season record: 4-3-1

All games season record: 7-5-2

Football picks cont'd

It's Mano a Mano y Womano! Bag has decided to join me in challenging Moon's football picks. Here are his for this week:


Really Like:
Raiders    -1.5    at        Vikings

Like:
Seahawks    +2    at        Rams
Bears        -3.5    hosting    Chargers
Giants        -4    hosting    Eagles

If force to choose:
Jets        -4.5    at        Broncos    13-17    L
Falcons    -6    hosting    Titans
Bills        +2    at        Dolphins
Bengals    +7    at        Ravens
Jaguars    -1    at        Browns
Lions        -7    hosting    Panthers
Packers    -14    hosting    Bucs
Cowboys    -8    at        Redskins
Niners    -9.5    hosting    Cardinals
Patriots    -14.5    hosting    Chiefs        

Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    5-2
Like:         5-7
Forced:    11-15
All Games:    21-24

South Pacific: Ep 10

While Ozzy didn't get sent home, all in all this was an excellent episode.  My greatest frustration with it, though, was that Albert & Co. had the perfect opportunity to take control of this game, and they didn't! I can only assume that Sophie backed out of the deal. Winning immunity seems to make people into cowards. Which makes no sense because - hey! - you're INVINCIBLE! That is the perfect time to make big moves, because if they go horribly wrong, at least you're not the one taking the brunt of the backlash.

I think that Ozzy is currently in a situation that is perfect for him. Redemption Island is what he thinks Survivor should be. You get to live in paradise in basic conditions & the only thing you have to worry about is the elimination challenges. It gets rid of the social game, which is clearly his weakest point. I think his plan is generally delusional - no one is cheering for him now, and his doing well on RI won't win him any votes. I don't think that he can win, unless he somehow finagles it that he takes Edna & Cochran to the final 3. Even then, Cochran might pull it out.

The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 98 pts
1. Ozzy (37 pts)
2. Sophie (28 pts)
[3. Jim (33 pts)]

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 55 pts
1. Albert (16 pts)
2. Rick (16 pts)
3. Dawn (23 pts)

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 53 pts
1. Cochran (15 pts) 
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (26 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 51 pts
[1. Keith (27 pts)]
2. Brandon (16 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 45 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]

[2. Christine (18 pts)]

3. Edna (14 pts)

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 32 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
2. Whitney (23 pts)
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Dungeons & Dragons - It's hard to believe that Coach has as tight a grip on this tribe as he seems to. I was really surprised that the alliance didn't crumble in this episode, and Coach's dragon-slaying neon juice must be the reason for it. As long as he remains in the game, I think I'm still the favorite to win. But I'm not really rooting for Coach, I'd rather see Cochran take it down (or other people who aren't on my team).

2. Top 3 - Moon takes a hit, but of his 3 players, Jim was the best to lose. Sophie & Ozzy are stronger mental & physical competitors than he is. Moon earned himself a nice cushion with all the points he won this episode, but did he put it out of reach? Not when everyone who makes final tribal gets at least 25 points. He needs Sophie to come up big a few more times to really be able to put this game away.

3. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - BBB takes its first hit in Episode 10, with Dawn now living on RI. I loved that Albert tried to make a move, and now I don't know if he'll get another chance. He may be able to distract Coach with other players - like Brandon - but that will only last so long. Coach isn't going to give Edna up without a fight, that's for sure, and I don't see Rick changing his non-plan anytime soon to switch to Albert's side. I've dropped BBB down to third solely because I think that Sophie is more likely to make the final three than Albert.

4. ICRWYNISTB - With Keith's departure so left the last remains of Dachui's team sanity as well. Now they're left with Brandon, who is called a "loose cannon" by people who are trying to say nice things about him. Dachui = no chance.

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - How is stupid zombie Edna is still in this game! Blast!

6. Country Bears -I have a new beef with Whitney. If you are asked a question to which you are not confident of the answer, and the question is "is a clam dangerous" you need to answer NO! She really needed to think that one through before locking in her response.

Update: The Casual Sports Fan Experiment

I’m not an obsessive football fan, but I do enjoy the sport and probably watch about 3 games a week. “Watch” is a relative term– usually I have the games on while I’m messing around on my computer, so I’m not catching every play or anything like that. I also watch SportsCenter every morning as I get ready for work, so I catch a decent number of highlights there. I’d say that I have a moderate amount of football knowledge. For example, I know that Matt Schaub is out for the rest of this year, but I have no idea what a nickelback is.

With that being said, I thought it might be interesting to see how this “moderate” football fan might fare in picking the lines on the games each week. Moon, an avid & well researched football fan, is averaging about a .500 record on his choices. My idea for this experiment emerged from the thought that maybe having too much information was actually a bad thing, so I’ve decided to see if I can do any better.

UPDATE: After talking with Bag who just so happens to be doing the same thing as me, I've adjusted the rules a little bit. See below. 

I’ve set a couple of rules for myself during this experiment:

1. I cannot do any research beyond what I normally watch to make these picks. That means I’m making my decisions largely based on the biases of ESPN analysts and what I see in games. On the plus side, I’m pretty aware of the ESPN biases, so at least I’m forearmed on that one.

2. Update - I must pick all the games that week

3.  Moon uses lines issued by 5Dimes, but so far as I can tell, you have to register with the site to see the lines. As a casual fan, that’s way too involved for me. Instead I did a Google search that yielded this website, which I will use for the basis of my picks: http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml.

4.  I’m not actually betting on these games, so don’t freak out Mom!

If all goes well and I don’t fall completely behind schedule (the most likely reason why this experiment will fail), I may try to keep this up next season, which would give me a more accurate idea of how good I am at this sort of thing. 

Here are my picks for week 11:

Really Like:

Raiders -1.5 over VIKINGS

Jets -5 over BRONCOS (sorry Tebow!)

GIANTS -4 over Eagles

Like:

BEARS -3.5 over Chargers

Seahawks +2 over RAMS

Bengals +7 over RAVENS

If Forced to Choose:

BROWNS +1 over Jaguars

49ERS -9.5 over Cardinals

Titans +6 over FALCONS

LIONS -7 over Panthers

REDSKINS +7.5 over Cowboys

Bills +2 over DOLPHINS

Chiefs +15 over PATRIOTS

PACKERS -14 over Bucs

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 0-0

Like season record: 0-0

If forced to choose season record: 0-0

All games season record: 0-0

South Pacific: Ep 9

Overall an excellent episode, especially since it led to the immediate demise of Moon's team. Initially a juggernaut, his team was hamstrung in a quick 47 minutes. I'm disappointed that they now have 3 people on RI though. I read an article before the season started that said they weren't going to do that this season. Those liars. Having it be a heads-up duel is far superior to these weird 3 and 4-person competitions. I hope they eliminate two people (ideally Ozzy & Jim!) in the next episode before bringing anyone else back there. 

The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 73 pts
1. Ozzy (34 pts)
2. Sophie (16 pts)
3. Jim (23 pts)

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 55 pts
1. Albert (16 pts)
2. Rick (16 pts)
3. Dawn (23 pts)

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 53 pts
1. Cochran (15 pts) 
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (26 pts)

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 45 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]

[2. Christine (18 pts)]

3. Edna (14 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 41 pts
1. Keith (17 pts)
2. Brandon (16 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 32 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
2. Whitney (23 pts)
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Dungeons & Dragons - It's a really close call between my team & Doug/Bri's. The reason I ranked myself higher is because I think Coach has better options for the end-game than anyone on BBB. For that matter, Cochran seems to have a better end-game too. If I was Coach I'd be planning on taking Edna, Brandon, and Cochran to the final 4 with me, and then feeling pretty comfortable with whoever ends up in the finals with me.

2. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - BBB is definitely a huge threat in challenges - both Dawn & Albert could bring in a lot of points in this post-merge era. But they are at greater risk at the moment of being voted out, which keeps them in the #2 spot for at least this week. Rick continues to ghost it up and is a non-player.

3. Top 3 - This was a terrible episode for Top 3... which should really be named Top 1 now. Or maybe Middle 3? Terrible spot for Moon, who was correct in saying the following: "Ozzy just isn't a smart player. I have only myself to blame for picking him. I knew what I was signing up for."


4. ICRWYNISTB - I'm surprised that Brandon hasn't done better in the challenges. He's a little guy, sure, but he still seems strong. I think in any game that has a large mental factor he'll probably drop out early, but he should be doing better in the physical challenges. Keith has a tough couple of challengers ahead of him, but if he can survive Jim & Ozzy, he won't have much competition on RI after that!

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - Bag's team lost points this episode, while Courtney's gained some. This could be a real horse race for last place!

6. Country Bears -Bag sent me an article that was all about Courtney's lone survivor. Apparently Whitney was secretly married before starting the show, but told everyone on the show that she was single! Then, upon returning back to the USA she dumped her secret husband (even their friends just thought they were only engaged, not married) so that she could spend more time with her Survivor BF Keith. Country Bears is creatively finding new ways to suck even harder than they already were.

South Pacific: Ep 8

Last week's episode was a great one! I'm happy that Ozzy's sacrifice worked out the way that it did, because I hope that it will inspire future contestants to take the same risks that he did. Having more people volunteer themselves for RI would definitely up the awesome level of Survivor.

Watching the episode I felt like Ozzy & Cochran were facing similar trials in their strongest areas. Ozzy had to face a physical trial & Cochran had to face a psychological trial. Ozzy obviously won his physical battle (although he lost in the acting category), but did Cochran win his battle?

At first I thought he failed, but on further reflection I actually think he succeeded. I certainly believe that Upolu manipulated him somewhat, but at the same time he's smart enough to be fully cognizant of the consequences of his decisions. I think he realized that he didn't have a chance to get too far with his current alliance, even if he made it through the random rock drawing, which wasn't a guarantee. No one on his tribe really liked him except for Dawn. Upolu wasn't just offering him security at that tribal, but also a chance for a fresh start. A fresh start in an alliance that kept Edna over Mikayla no less! So, ultimately I think it was a good decision for him, and an even better decision for my team, since this also put Coach into a dominant position! Hopefully not too dominant though...

The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 69 pts
1. Ozzy (34 pts)
2. Sophie (18 pts)
3. Jim (17 pts)

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 59 pts
1. Albert (18 pts)
2. Rick (18 pts)
3. Dawn (23 pts)

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 57 pts
1. Cochran (17 pts) 
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (28 pts)

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 47 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]

[2. Christine (18 pts)]

3. Edna (16 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 43 pts
1. Keith (17 pts)
2. Brandon (18 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 26 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
2. Whitney (17 pts)
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Top 3 - Ozzy's position is pretty perilous right now - Upolu+1 knows that he doesn't have a hidden idol anymore, and he's their biggest threat by far. He needs to either win the next immunity challenge or find another hidden idol, if there's another one even out there to be found! Otherwise he's going to RI. Sophie's looking solid though, and Jim is fully capable of making moves to stay alive, so this team is still a serious threat.

2. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - Sigh. I was really excited about Dawn's support of Cochran - what she said really was meaningful & heartfelt. She was about to be my favorite player... and then she took it all back! That was a really bad decision for a lot of reasons. But most importantly, she's now in the minority & is one of the strongest females left which will make her a target. Rick is just baggage at this point, but Albert has a good understanding of how this game works, and I'm excited to see what he'll do in the coming weeks.

3. Dungeons & Dragons - When the Bullet Dodger & Coach met for the first time it felt like a culmination of so many of the plot lines from this season. I could tell that this meeting was going to be one of the most pivotal moments in the entire game. What I didn't expect was for Coach to own Cochran so thoroughly and quickly through that one interaction. But he hit Cochran fast & in all the right places (that's what she said): he touched on being an outsider, having the chance to be empowered, and his own alliance being completely unified. And then he let the others finish up the wooing. The way they operated almost seemed professional.

4. ICRWYNISTB - Dachui is in trouble with Keith being sent to RI. I think he could win a few challenges there, but the competitors sent to RI now will be a lot stronger than the pre-merge group, so he has his work cut out for him! Brandon is still crazy, although I hope that he keeps up the role of being Cochran's protector. I think that would be a positive symbiotic relationship for both of them, and actually could make the game pretty interesting if it develops.

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - With only wimpy Edna left in a merged game, Bag can at best hope for maybe 15 more points for the rest of the season. A.k.a., Bag = no chance.

6. Country Bears - Courtney's team was already in huge trouble, but now it's worse. Country Bears can be officially considered out of this competition.