XvM: Finale

 The finale was a fitting end to what was an entertaining & largely unpredictable season. This is twice now that we've fallen into the Survivor producers' trap though - last season Aubry was a dreg pick because of a panic attack, and this season Hannah was a dreg for the exact same reason. Both made it to the finals, though neither won. If someone has a panic attack at the start of next season - extremely unlikely - they should be the #1 draft pick.

 I feel like Adam's strategy this whole season was to be completely unpredictable & unreliable, which is weirdly what he accused Hannah of being as a negative in Final Tribal. But look at his play throughout the season: the Millennials largely didn't trust him in the beginning because he kept flip-flopping between the weirdos & the cool kids. Next he turned on FigTayls & sided with Ken & Jess. Then he reunited with Zeke only to turn on him again. He was blunt in a socially awkward way, and he seemed to abuse the weird relationship he had with Jay. Why Jay likes this guy after being repeatedly backstabbed by him, I'll never know!

But he did seem to wear his heart on his sleeve & he used his "you can steal a reward" advantage skillfully... for this season. If he tried to do the same in the next season against a slew of pros, he'd probably be taken out immediately. He could also argue being a competitor in challenges. All in all, not the greatest victor in Survivor history, but not the worst either.

Who are the worst Survivor winners in the history of the show? Here's my top 5, starting with the worst of the worst:

1. Chris from Vanuatu
2. Fabio
3. Brian, the used car salesman
4. Jenna Morasca
5. Michelle from last season

Overall I think the pool of winners has actually been quite strong. Looking back at it in my History tab in the spreadsheet, I definitely remember being upset at some of the people who have been declared victors in moment & thinking they didn't deserve it. But after enough time, they mostly all had solid strategies that were just plain better than some of their competitors.

This was a much smarter group than most all-newbie seasons. And a well-deserved win for Moon & Melissa, who put together a team where everyone earned a minimum of 30 points.

In the end, I was actually rooting for Hannah. Hannah, you may not have won a million dollars, but you did turn this very critical fan 180 degrees. I thought her FT argument was really solid & am honestly surprised she didn't get any votes. Was it too little too late? Did she lay low & act like a coattail rider for too long? Or did she just piss too many people off by not turning against David sooner in the game?


The Teams:

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 180 points 

1. Chris - 24 pts
2. Adam - 89 pts
3. Will - 33 pts
4. Hannah - 34 pts

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 152 points

1. Ken - 56 pts
2. David - 59 pts
3. Figgy - 7 pts
4. Taylor - 30 pts

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 82 points

1. Zeke - 33 pts
2. Jay - 41 pts
3. Michaela - 14 pts
4. Paul - -6 pts

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 71 points

1. Michelle - 25 pts
2. Bret - 31 pts
3. Jessica - 18 pts
4. Lucy - -3 pts

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 27 points

1. CeCe - -2 pts
2. Sunday - 29 pts

Prop Bets:


-->

People involved	Castaways Involved	Method of measurement	Stakes	And the winner is...
Melissa v. Doug	Hannah v. Lucy	Longevity	1 drink	Melissa
Doug v. Bag	Bag's entire team	Down to 0-1 players before any other team	1 drink	Bag
Ben v. Moon	Michaela v. Chris	3:2 Longevity	drinks	Moon
Ben v. Bag	Michaela v. Figgy	Longevity	1 drink	Ben
Moon v. Bag	Chris & Adam v. Ken & David	Longevity	1 drink + 1 bonus drink if both players are gone before the other team loses anyone	Bag
Ben v. Bag	Zeke & Michaela v. Ken & David	Longevity	1 drink + 1 bonus drink if both players are gone before the other team loses anyone	Bag + Bonus
Michal v. Doug & Moon & Melissa	Figgy & Taylor	Are they still a couple by the reunion show	1 drink	Moon & Melissa
Michal & Bag v. Bri & Moon	Millenials v. GenX	total points between all players (by draft)	1 drink	Michal & Bag
Ben/Michal v. Moon	Sea Dogs v. HH	total points of each team	$50 bottle o' booze	Moon

Next Season:

I'm so excited!! It's 20 returning castaways & the cast is chock full of past winners, fan faves, schemers, and loony tunes - I think you already know who I'm talking about. Here's the break-down:

Past winners:

• Sandra - the only 2x winner, she's risking her current inarguable position of being the greatest Survivor of all time by coming back for a 3rd try. 
• Tony - the cop who made paranoid flip-flopping a winning strategy.
• JT - one of my personal favorites ever since he won me the pool in his first season. Also known for being the fool who secretly shipped Evil Russell an immunity idol across tribal lines based on a completely inaccurate hunch.

The fan faves:

• Malcolm - aka the Original Manbun. #Thisismyteamnameifweendupdraftinghim
• Ozzy - Needs no introduction - this will be his FOURTH season of Survivor. Dare I say it? Past his prime?
• Cirie - also her FOURTH season! These two must love pain. I do love Cirie, she's uber crafty. Unfortunately so is everyone else this season.
• Caleb - medevacked 2 seasons ago, he was probably a shoo-in for the next returning castaways season. He was a strong competitor & had a big heart. 
• Tai - Caleb's return wouldn't be complete without his opposites-attract bro-mate! The real question, though: will Mark the Chicken also make a comeback?

The schemers:

• Andrea - I think she lost her first season because she only played the "I'm hot, take me along for the ride" strategy. Then she over-schemed on her second outing. It will be interesting to see how she plays it her third time around.
• Aubry - the runner-up from 2 seasons ago. I think we all unanimously (except maybe Doug & Bri) agreed she was the deserving winner, but she wasn't quite able to pull it off 
• Jeff Varner - Probst's perennial favorite. He seemed like an over-schemer his 2nd time back to Survivor, but then pulled it together & was looking to be a real threat. Then he got injured, which I think was just enough of a reason for his tribe to vote him out.
• Michaela - challenge beast that was voted out when she proved that she was quite clever too
• Zeke - not announced on the Reunion show, but I've seen multiple sources now that list him as a returning player. Perhaps he came in off the waitlist? 
• Ciera - the woman who will never be able to live down that she voted her mom off the show.
• Sarah Lacina - the cop who made a "Cops 4eva!" deal with Tony & then got insta-backstabbed. I'm excited to see her back, I think she'll do well on a season of veterans. And now she knows about Tony, so there's no fear of "he's a cop, he must be honest" bias kicking in this time. 
• Troyzan - yeah. They brought this guy back. I know that I'm merging my memories of him with his co-star Tarzan, which is certainly not helpful for him. But I'm just not going to get over this name. Actually, the more I think about it, I think he was taken out by a combo of the powerhouse-that-was-Kim and the insanity-that-was-Colton, but had been quite strong before that. 

And these guys:

• Debbie - my all-time fave loony tunes... after Philip Jessum Herring, that is. Debbie may have a redemption story akin to Coach's, or she may prove to us that she's already reached her ceiling when it comes to Survivor. And what about her Red Lobster ceiling? Her chemistry ceiling? Her competitive juggling ceiling?
• Brad Culpepper - universally hated in his season, but for the life of me I can't remember why! His wife was a challenge beast & paranoid coattail-rider who long outlasted my memory of him. 
• Sierra - from Worlds Apart, she came in 5th, but I BARELY remember her. She's from Texas, yes? Maybe a beauty queen? 
• Hali - also from Worlds Apart, and I also remember her only vaguely, though I seem to think she's a stronger player than Sierra.

XvM: Ep 12

Another two down & the finale coming up - overall a very entertaining season that feels like it will give us a lot more action, intrigue & blindsides before all is said & done.

The pool probably got a little lucky that Dreggy McBoatface's team went out before anyone else. Sunday held on like a goat clinging to a mountainside, and I wasn't convinced that our team would outlast the dregs. The Housewives were in some serious danger there as well.

I was quite pleased to see Will go. He had no subtlety to his game. I found it hard to believe that he really thought he could spend a whole episode talking about making big moves & padding his resume, and then the next week think that things could go back to normal & he'd be everyone's friend & everyone would trust him & keep underestimating him.

Speaking of trust, why in God's name is Jay listening to anything Adam says? That guy is so duplicitous... and obviously so. It's kind of shocking Adam is still in the game considering how clumsily he's played it. But I guess he's making it work for him. People must be thinking, "yeah, he's really wishy-washy, paranoid, and surprisingly good at challenges. But he's so painfully blunt & scrawny-looking that there's no way he'll get votes at Final Tribal." I'm also wondering if he told everyone that he gave Jay his reward-stealing advantage? If not, he should have a GIANT target on his back. Here's how I rank people in favor of winning:

1. Adam
2. Jay
3. David
4. Bret
5. Ken
6. Hannah

David is no longer the biggest threat to win the game imo because he's been forced to lay low for a few episodes now & not make any big moves. Ever since Zeke got voted out he's been sidelined by fear. Adam is making moves and never seems to be in danger of getting voted out. Plus he can throw the whole "my mom has cancer" bomb out there at final tribal & that'll probably lock it up for him. Jay can argue the case that he's been in danger the whole time, he scrapped through without really backstabbing anyone on the jury & being really good at challenges, a la Mike from season 30. 

Bret would probably have to go with the "everyone likes me & I never backstabbed anyone" route but that's about it. Which wouldn't work if he's up against Jay who has as similar argument & then some, and he has more friends on the jury. Ken & Hannah have no chance imo. 

The Teams:

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 89 points 

1. [Chris]
2. Adam
3. [Will]
4. Hannah

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 82 points

1. Ken
2. David 
3. [Figgy]
4. [Taylor]

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 72 points

1. [Zeke]
2. Jay 
3. [Michaela]
4. [Paul]

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 54 points

1. [Michelle]
2. Bret
3. [Jessica]
4. [Lucy]

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 27 points

1. [CeCe]
2. [Sunday]

Power Rankings:

1. Hannah & the Homeboys: This pool is looking a lot tighter than I expected at this point in the game. Hannah & the Homeboys are clearly still the favorites what with having the most points & my favorite to win the season. But a lot can happen between now & Final Tribal that could switch things up! I'm just hoping Hannah doesn't make FT, she drives me crazy!
2. DK Double Stacker: David is still a strong contender & Ken has that Legacy Advantage that may turn out to be cool... or it could be a lemon. Baggadocious is hoping it'll result in some major points somehow in order to contend with HH. 
3. Sea Dogs: With Jay holding on to the Steal-A-Reward advantage & being a beat in challenges, it is still conceivable that this team could win. Definitely a dark horse in this race, but still possible! It would have been sweet if he'd held on to his immunity idol for one more tribal... ah well.
4. Housewives: I like Bret so much more by the end of this season than I did when we drafted. But that won't be enough to save the Housewives - they are the strong favorites to be making the next addition to the trophy. 

Douche of the Week:
Will.

XvM: Eps 10 & 11

The blog delinquency continues. No time for a real post, but wanted to share updated scores as we head into the final stretch. I'm getting rid of the individual castaways' scores in the blog - it takes too long to update that. For details on scoring, see the spreadsheet. Other suggestion for stuff I include in the blog that you don't really read or care about? I'd love to make posting these easier/less time consuming so that I'm actually able to do this more regularly!


The Teams:

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 76 points

1. Ken
2. David 
3. [Figgy]
4. [Taylor]

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 75 points 

1. [Chris]
2. Adam
3. Will 
4. Hannah

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 71 points

1. [Zeke]
2. Jay 
3. [Michaela]
4. [Paul]

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 54 points

1. [Michelle]
2. Bret
3. [Jessica]
4. [Lucy]

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 12 points

1. [CeCe]
2. Sunday

Power Rankings:

1. Hannah & the Homeboys: Clear front-runners with Adam suddenly looking like the one to beat at final tribal. I really hope Hannah goes home soon!
2. DK Double Stacker: David beat his Goliath, which in this case was a young gay Okie... a major victory for him & Baggadocious. Ken proving to be not the brightest, but this is still a strong contender. 
3. Sea Dogs: Could Jay win it all? I think maybe. Probably still not be enough for us to win the whole thing though. .
4. Housewives: Bret won't win. 

Douche of the Week:
Ep 10: David. Ep 11: Ken.

XvM: Episode 9

Not a super interesting or unexpected episode. Taylor will not be missed. It'll be interesting to see what kind of fall out might come from tribal council in the next couple of episodes. Will Adam be targeted for both his reward advantage & shady/aggressive game play? It so it's completely justified - serves him right for confiding in Taylor!


The Teams:

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 75 points

1. Ken (15 pts)
2. David (28 pts)
3. [Figgy (7 pts)]
4. [Taylor (25 pts)]

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 60 points 

1. Chris (13 pts)
2. Adam (16 pts)
3. Will (18 pts)
4. Hannah (13 pts)

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 45 points

1. Zeke (16 pts)
2. Jay (21 pts)
3. [Michaela (14 pts)]
4. [Paul (-6 pts)]

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 38 points

1. [Michelle (25 pts)]
2. Bret (10 pts)
3. Jessica (6 pts)
4. [Lucy (-3 pts)]

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 5 points

1. [CeCe (-2 pts)]
2. Sunday (7 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Hannah & the Homeboys: MoonBee still has all 4 players and Chris and Will are both very capable of bringing in challenge points over the next few weeks. All of these players could get targeted at any point of course, but even if they lose someone next week they'll still have a 1 player advantage against the rest of us. With the diversity of alliances & positions among this group, they are well suited to win this season.
2. DK Double Stacker: David's name was mentioned by Sunday last week, but otherwise Ken & David are definitely flying under the radar. They seem to be the least threatening people this season, except for maybe Zeke. Will be interesting to see how DK does now that one of their stacks is gone.
3. Sea Dogs: Jay not playing his idol was huge for both him & us. We might still have a chance at this if somehow he & Zeke both go deep. But we need to see Hannah & the Homeboys implode & soon if we're really going to have a shot.
4. Housewives: Bret seemed to be keenly observant last episode... also a bit of a lush. It'd be nice to see him start playing the game more - he'd probably be a decent strategist. But he seems content to play second fiddle to Chris and/or anyone else, so I doubt he'll ever step up. 

Douche of the Week:
Taylor.

XvM: Episodes 7 & 8

Ugh, episode 7 felt too painful to blog about, having just watched our team cannibalize itself. Then last night happened. Guess it's all relative.

Michaela was a beast & we are really going to miss her. So much personality & so much heart. I'm not sure her social game/strategy would have survived much longer in the merge, though. It seemed like she would have had trouble adjusting to such a fluid game. With that being said, though, she was willing to align herself with her enemy Figgy in the first episode to take out Mari, so I might be selling her short.

Episode 8 was a showcase in Adam's stupidity. Why on earth would you try to ally yourself with Taylor after you've both spent the duration of the show gunning for each other? I just makes no sense! I was rooting for Adam until this episode, but his absurd strategy & desperate scrambling made me change my mind.

A couple of interesting notes: only 1 dude has been voted out so far this season. The Millenials are crushing the GenXers in overall points scored. And being in the minority going into any vote seems to be the safest place to be! Which leads me to believe that Jay, Will, and Taylor will all survive next week.

In other news, I dove into the blog archives (aka Bloglore) and filled out the "History" tab in the spreadsheet. Please check it out, help fill in the blanks, and add any fun trivia that you may recall!


The Teams:

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 60 points 

1. Chris (11 pts)
2. Adam (16 pts)
3. Will (19 pts)
4. Hannah (14 pts)

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 53 points

1. Ken (7 pts)
2. David (26 pts)
3. [Figgy (7 pts)]
4. Taylor (13 pts)

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 46 points

1. Zeke (17 pts)
2. Jay (21 pts)
3. [Michaela (14 pts)]
4. [Paul (-6 pts)]

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 37 points

1. [Michelle (26 pts)]
2. Bret (8 pts)
3. Jessica (3 pts)
4. [Lucy (-3 pts)]

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 5 points

1. [CeCe (-2 pts)]
2. Sunday (7 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Hannah & the Homeboys: Geez, this team is crushing it. All 4 players made the merge, which already makes them tough to beat. On top of that they're winning challenges, finding idols, clues, and generally bringing home the bacon. I don't think any of these players will win, but they are a combined strong supporting cast & are definitely a force to be reckoned with. #solidarity
2. DK Double Stacker: Ken is shockingly sucky when it comes to earning points in this pool. David is making up for it, though, and they are both poised for a deep run. Taylor's time is limited, but he's done a great job bringing in points as a dreg. If he holds on much longer he'll probably win Baggadocious the DOW points too. #baglor
3. Sea Dogs: I still think Zeke could win this whole thing, but that means nothing when your team cannibalizes itself! Jay is playing too obvious a game and it's bitten him in the ass. Hopefully he can rally. #cannibals
4. Housewives: Michelle is gone, leaving just Bret & Jessica. Jess performed very well in the first individual immunity challenge, which bodes well for the Housewives. But the "Funeral Director" is flabby & unlikely to win any challenges on his own. And neither can win this game. Doug & Bri are now in the hot seat for making the next tier of the trophy. #notlast

Douche of the Week:
Adam for episode 7 because of the way he repeatedly drove home the point to Taylor that he was the reason Figgy got voted out, that he was the one to blame, that he 100% betrayed Taylor & Figgy, etc. etc. etc. Maybe that's not really douchey, but it's hella dumb. Jay is my runner-up for voting out Michaela largely because he knew she was smarter than him.

Taylor for episode 8 because of the food thievery & blase attitude about it at tribal council.


Dreg Rule:
1) If you could pick up a dreg now & drop one of your current players to dreg status, would you?
2) If you could buy a dreg & add them to your stable without losing anyone, how much would you bid for them?
3) If you are a team who just lost a player, would you be willing to spend 5 points or 10 points to pick up one of these dregs?

1. No
2. 5-7 points -- but let's be honest. I don't blog consistently enough that an auction system is really a viable option. 
3. Interesting - now that the players are guaranteed 10 points, would it be worth paying 10 points in hopes of getting bonus points? Sunday hardly seems worth it, but I supposed I'd be grudgingly willing to pay 10 points for her post-merge. Maybe no dreg pick-ups after the merge?

XvM: Episode 6

Figgy blew it, resulting in purple team's earning no points and single-handedly evening the field in this pool. Except for Doug & Bri's team which is looking weaker & weaker by the episode.

It was overall a fun episode, including watching the yellow tribe come from behind to win the reward challenge, and the always-entertaining blindfold challenges with lots of nut shots. Adam & Zeke are both seriously contemplating "joining the dark side" with GenX which is exactly what we talked about last week. And Michaela showed more than just challenge prowess, but also hinted at a strategic side. I loved how she bossed Hannah around during the challenge. Her decision to give advice to the yellow tribe to the purple tribe's detriment was maybe too... blunt? Obvious? But I don't think anything will come of it. Taylor doesn't have the power or intelligence to wreak retribution.

Adam's switch to GenX's side was clearly the correct one. I get that there could potentially be a longer-term advantage to sticking with Millenials, even if you don't particularly like Figlor. But the game is waaaaay too fluid to assume that the initial tribe that you started on will stay loyal with each other til the end. Maybe if they'd had a super charismatic leader like a Boston Rob or a Parvati. But they were tearing each other apart from the beginning. No need to stay loyal to that.


The Teams:

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 47 points 

1. Chris (7 pts)
2. Adam (13 pts)
3. Will (13 pts)
4. Hannah (14 pts)

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 43 points

1. Ken (4 pts)
2. David (22 pts)
3. [Figgy (7 pts)]
4. Taylor (10 pts)

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 42 points

1. Zeke (13 pts)
2. Jay (20 pts)
3. Michaela (15 pts)
4. [Paul (-6 pts)]

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 20 points

1. Michelle (12 pts)
2. Bret (8 pts)
3. Jessica (3 pts)
4. [Lucy (-3 pts)]

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 6 points

1. [CeCe (-2 pts)]
2. Sunday (8 pts)

The Top 5:

1. Ken - he's a provider, good at challenges, great at making alliances. He's always been in the minority & yet always keeps a level head & finds a way to turn the odds in his favor. 
2. Michaela - challenge beast, is always playing from the heart. Speaks her mind in a refreshing way, though potentially to her detriment.
3. Zeke - definitely thinks through all his options both short- & long-term. Seems like the kind of guy who can bring people together & inspire loyalty.
4. Adam - a sweetheart who may not be the most physical in challenges but always gives it his all
5. David - dark horse for sure, but a hard core schemer & strategist

Power Rankings:

1. DK Double Stacker: Figgy was a loss, but so long as this team has Ken and David I'm still considering them a juggernaut. Taylor could still make himself useful by bringing in some challenge points, but that's about all he's good for now.
   
2. Sea Dogs: Zeke & Michaela are awesome & hopefully Jay will continue to bring in big points.
   
3. Hannah & the Homeboys: They are the only team with 4 players remaining, which is of course a handy advantage. And Chris & Adam are both competitors, I'm just not sure they are quite the forces that Ken, Zeke & Michaela are.
   
4. Housewives: Michelle is coming off as lacking a personality and definitely untrustworthy. With Figgy gone I don't see her having any allies left. Bret & Jessica seem like they are both probably nice people in the real world, and are good foot soldiers in the Survivor world, but certainly aren't going to leave much of a lasting mark in this game.

Douche of the Week:
Taylor!


Dreg Rule:
1) If you could pick up a dreg now & drop one of your current players to dreg status, would you?
2) If you could buy a dreg & add them to your stable without losing anyone, how much would you bid for them?
3) If you are a team who just lost a player, would you be willing to spend 5 points or 10 points to pick up one of these dregs?

1. No
2. 5-7 points
3. 5 points

XvM: Episodes 4 & 5

Sorry for the delay on the blog – this post will cover the last 2 episodes, so feel free to vote DoW for both & voice an opinion on dreg rule as well.

Episode 4: GenXers aren’t doing so great and are even more fractured after Paul gets voted out. Ken & David are in charge though no one seems to realize it, least of all Lucy. The Millenials are kicking ass and taking names, and while they are hard-pressed to beat Chris 1-on-1, their teamwork & puzzle-solving prowess put them at a significant advantage in most challenges. When GenX goes back to tribal, David makes the puzzling decision to save Jessica, who back-stabbed him & his ally Ken, doesn’t seem too smart, and has those crazy alien eyes that haven’t gotten any less creepy even though that infection went away.

Episode 5: David questions his decision to save Jessica. It was stupid but now looks genius since he finds another idol within a day. Plus Jessica & Ken end up on the same tribe when the tribe swap happens & now Ken has a hugely loyal ally with him. Michaela is pissed about being on the green tribe, but then has a series of heroic moments starting fire and then winning the immunity challenge for her team. Will she end up being the leader of their tribe? Or will she just be their MVP in challenges?

Zeke wonders if David is throwing the challenge & while he probably didn’t, it’s hard to imagine someone playing so badly not on purpose. CeCe is the WORST though. She’s ridiculously bad in challenges & doesn’t seem to even realize it! It was also interesting to see Michelle try & game-play with CeCe who turns out to be incompetent at that too. Good riddance to CeCe, but Chris should definitely not trust David – that was a vote of necessity, not a proof of loyalty.

Random Poll: Who is the cutest couple?

1.     David & Ken

2.     Figgy & Taylor

3.     Chris & Zeke

The Teams:

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 41 points

1.     Ken (4 pts)

2.     David (17 pts)

3.     Figgy (10 pts)

4.     Taylor (10 pts)

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 37 points

1.     Chris (4 pts)

2.     Adam (14 pts)

3.     Will (10 pts)

4.     Hannah (11 pts)

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 24 points

1.     Zeke (8 pts)

2.     Jay (11 pts)

3.     Michaela (11 pts)

4.     [Paul (-5 pts)]

Doug & Bri "The Real Housewives of Fiji (and Bret)" - 13 points

1.     Michelle (7 pts)

2.     Bret (5 pts)

3.     Jessica (4 pts)

4.     [Lucy (-3 pts)]

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 3 points

1.     [CeCe (-2 pts)]

2.     Sunday (5 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. DK Double Stacker: 3 of these 4 ponies are on the same tribe that is going to a huge threat in challenges with both Ken & Taylor on the same tribe. David is their lone wolf right now, but it seems like he thrives as the underdog. While I’d love to see that idiot Taylor sent home, even if he did this would still be a tough team to beat.

2. Sea Dogs: Zeke is pairing up with Chris, which makes me like Chris a lot more. I think it’s clear that this Okie bond will trump any previous alliances they may have had. I’d love to see Adam & Ken dismantle the nightmare that is the self-proclaimed Figlor (is that right?) & then team up with Zeke & Chris. That would be an alliance to cheer for! I think Jay should be better now that he’s away from Taylor, and Michaela is in full on beast mode. Go Sea Dogs!

3. Hannah & the Homeboys: This team clearly benefitted the most from the tribal switcheroo. Chris & Adam were both on the chopping block, but now have new alliances & positions of power. Will is hanging out in ghost world with Bret, and I still think Hannah sucks, but this team could do really well even if those two don’t go much farther. Still keeping them in 3^rd place in the power rankings though because I think Michaela > Will + Hannah, and I think Jay has a higher ceiling for bringing in challenge points over Adam.

4. Housewives: Lucy reinforced a lot of Asian mom stereotypes before getting voted out. Thanks for nothing, Lucy, except a fun team name for Doug & Bri. This team is starting to look like they might be in trouble. Michelle is good at strategy but bad at earning trust. And she seems to be one of those people who can’t stop scheming, which usually paints a target on their back. Bret is getting little airtime, which usually means they just barely make it onto the jury & don’t do anything remarkable otherwise. My opinion on Jessica can be found above. Unless something drastic happens, I don’t think this team can win.

Douche of the Week:

For episode 4: Jessica

For episode 5: Taylor

Dreg Rule:

1) If you could pick up a dreg now & drop one of your current players to dreg status, would you?

2) If you could buy a dreg & add them to your stable without losing anyone, how much would you bid for them?

3) If you are a team who just lost a player, would you be willing to spend 5 points or 10 points to pick up one of these dregs?

After episode 4:

1) No

2) 5 points

3) 5 points

After episode 5:

1) No

2) 5 points

3) 5 points

XvM: Draft & Episode 3

Season 33 is well on its way and so is the pool! With a theme of GenX v. Millenials (which is already getting tired) it might be overall the youngest cast in Survivor history, including a kid in high school. So far the Millenials seem to be the generation that's a better fit for the game play of Survivor, though it was nice to see the women of GenX proving to be quite adaptable in this last episode.

It's going to be hard to put together solid power rankings this season as folks are moving from the bottom to the top of alliances (and vice versa) in a matter of minutes! First Mari, then Paul... and Figgy is on a roller coaster of positioning within her tribe. The alliance blocks for now seem to be:

• Ken, David & CeCe
• Bret & Chris
• Zeke & Adam
• Jessica, Sunday & Lucy
• Taylor, Figgy, Jay & Michelle

Which leaves Michaela, Will & Hannah as free agents. If these stick it's a matter of which blocks ally themselves with each other at any moment as far as who will be voted out. Not sure how anyone can be considered safe in these kind of scenarios. But the way things stand in challenges, I think Millenials are favored, so I think we'll see more GenXers exit early rather than Millenials. 

Draft Order:

1. Ken (Baggadocious)
2. Michelle (Doug & Bri)
3. Zeke (Michal & Ben)
4. Chris (Moon & Melissa)
5. Adam (Moon & Melissa)
6. Jay (Michal & Ben)
7. Bret (Doug & Bri)
8. David (Baggadocious)
9. Jessica (Doug & Bri)
10. Michaela (Michal & Ben)
11. Figgy (Baggadocious)
12. Will (Moon & Melissa)
13. Hannah (Moon & Melissa)
14. Taylor (Baggadocious)
15. Paul (Michal & Ben)
16. Lucy (Doug & Bri)
17. CeCe - not drafted
18. Sunday - not drafted

The Teams:
Some team names are in, but please send me more. Working titles are good, but let me know if/when they are final. You have the next two blog postings... or you will be docked points.

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 15 points

1. Chris (0 pts)
2. Adam (5 pts)
3. Will (5 pts)
4. Hannah (5 pts)

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 10 points

1. Ken (0 pts)
2. David (0 pts)
3. Figgy (5 pts)
4. Taylor (5 pts)

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 10 points

1. Zeke (5 pts)
2. Jay (5 pts)
3. Michaela (5 pts)
4. [Paul (-5 pts)]

Doug & Bri "???" - 5 points

1. Michelle (5 pts)
2. Bret (0 pts)
3. Jessica (0 pts)
4. Lucy (0 pts)

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 0 points

1. CeCe (0 pts)
2. Sunday (0 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. DK Double Stacker: Ben said that this was the best draft Baggadocious has ever had, and I think he's right. Taylor & Figgy are both idiots, but they should be point-rich idiots. Getting Taylor in the last round was probably the deal of the draft. Ken & David are getting the air-time of players who will be around for a while. Yes, both David & Figgy's names have been in the mix for getting voted out... but that could mean a lot or it could come to nothing.

2. Sea Dogs: We trimmed the fat & now this team is lean & crafty. As mentioned above I think the Millenials are a stronger overall group, so hopefully this team will bring in solid points pre-merge & then Michaela & Jay can win a few challenges post-merge. This is the smartest overall team imo, and I think they all have the potential for a deep run.

3.Doug & Bri: Bret's in trouble... maybe... but Michelle is a beast. I wonder how well the Bible missionary will do when it comes time to back-stab a friend, but she was quite crafty in that 2nd episode and I imagine she'll be in the scheming mix for a while. After all, she has Figgy as a human shield protecting her from getting votes at least for now. Jessica & Lucy are solid dregs. I don't think either will do anything amazing, but they'll probably stick around long enough to earn decent points for where they were picked in the draft.

4. Hannah & the Homeboys: I like Will & Adam, but I really dislike Hannah & I'm just not sold on Chris. If GenX loses next time I think he'll be the one to go. Hannah is just a huge spaz and will probably be her own downfall. The real question is if she will take her whole alliance down with her or not.



Douche of the Week:
Paul, for the reason that he was voted out. And for his terrible fishing skills/big talk about his fishing skills.


Dreg Rule:
There isn't a dreg rule this season, but we might add one next season. The deciding factor on what that rule might be will be determined based on how we think we'd act this season. So, 1) if you had the option to pick up a dreg now & drop one of your current players t dreg status at this point, would you? Or, 2) if you had the option to buy a dreg & add them to your stable without losing anyone, how much would you bid for them? Or, 3) if you are a team who just lost a player, would you be willing to spend 5 points or 10 points to pick up one of these dregs? Here are my answers:

1) No
2) Maybe 3 points
3) I definitely wouldn't spend 10, I might spend 5

XvM: Draft & Episode 3

Season 33 is well on its way and so is the pool! With a theme of GenX v. Millenials (which is already getting tired) it might be overall the youngest cast in Survivor history, including a kid in high school. So far the Millenials seem to be the generation that's a better fit for the game play of Survivor, though it was nice to see the women of GenX proving to be quite adaptable in this last episode.

It's going to be hard to put together solid power rankings this season as folks are moving from the bottom to the top of alliances (and vice versa) in a matter of minutes! First Mari, then Paul... and Figgy is on a roller coaster of positioning within her tribe. The alliance blocks for now seem to be:

• Ken, David & CeCe
• Bret & Chris
• Zeke & Adam
• Jessica, Sunday & Lucy
• Taylor, Figgy, Jay & Michelle

Which leaves Michaela, Will & Hannah as free agents. If these stick it's a matter of which blocks ally themselves with each other at any moment as far as who will be voted out. Not sure how anyone can be considered safe in these kind of scenarios. But the way things stand in challenges, I think Millenials are favored, so I think we'll see more GenXers exit early rather than Millenials. 

Draft Order:

1. Ken (Baggadocious)
2. Michelle (Doug & Bri)
3. Zeke (Michal & Ben)
4. Chris (Moon & Melissa)
5. Adam (Moon & Melissa)
6. Jay (Michal & Ben)
7. Bret (Doug & Bri)
8. David (Baggadocious)
9. Jessica (Doug & Bri)
10. Michaela (Michal & Ben)
11. Figgy (Baggadocious)
12. Will (Moon & Melissa)
13. Hannah (Moon & Melissa)
14. Taylor (Baggadocious)
15. Paul (Michal & Ben)
16. Lucy (Doug & Bri)
17. CeCe - not drafted
18. Sunday - not drafted

The Teams:
Some team names are in, but please send me more. Working titles are good, but let me know if/when they are final. You have the next two blog postings... or you will be docked points.

MoonBee "Hannah & the Homeboys" - 15 points

1. Chris (0 pts)
2. Adam (5 pts)
3. Will (5 pts)
4. Hannah (5 pts)

Baggadocious "DK Double Stacker" - 10 points

1. Ken (0 pts)
2. David (0 pts)
3. Figgy (5 pts)
4. Taylor (5 pts)

Michal & Ben "Sea Dogs" - 10 points

1. Zeke (5 pts)
2. Jay (5 pts)
3. Michaela (5 pts)
4. [Paul (-5 pts)]

Doug & Bri "???" - 5 points

1. Michelle (5 pts)
2. Bret (0 pts)
3. Jessica (0 pts)
4. Lucy (0 pts)

Dregs "Dreggy McBoatface" - 0 points

1. CeCe (0 pts)
2. Sunday (0 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. DK Double Stacker: Ben said that this was the best draft Baggadocious has ever had, and I think he's right. Taylor & Figgy are both idiots, but they should be point-rich idiots. Getting Taylor in the last round was probably the deal of the draft. Ken & David are getting the air-time of players who will be around for a while. Yes, both David & Figgy's names have been in the mix for getting voted out... but that could mean a lot or it could come to nothing.

2. Sea Dogs: We trimmed the fat & now this team is lean & crafty. As mentioned above I think the Millenials are a stronger overall group, so hopefully this team will bring in solid points pre-merge & then Michaela & Jay can win a few challenges post-merge. This is the smartest overall team imo, and I think they all have the potential for a deep run.

3.Doug & Bri: Bret's in trouble... maybe... but Michelle is a beast. I wonder how well the Bible missionary will do when it comes time to back-stab a friend, but she was quite crafty in that 2nd episode and I imagine she'll be in the scheming mix for a while. After all, she has Figgy as a human shield protecting her from getting votes at least for now. Jessica & Lucy are a solid dreg team to have. I don't think either will do anything amazing, but they'll probably stick around long enough to earn solid points for where they were picked in the draft.

4. Hannah & the Homeboys: I like Will & Adam, but I'm starting to really dislike Hannah & I'm just not sold on Chris. If GenX loses next time I think he'll be the one to go. Hannah is just a huge spaz and will probably be her own downfall. The real question is if she will take her whole alliance down with her or not.



Douche of the Week:
Paul, for the reason that he was voted out. And for his terrible fishing skills/big talk about his fishing skills.


Dreg Rule:
There isn't a dreg rule this season, but we might add one next season. The deciding factor on what that rule might be will be determined based on how we think we'd act this season. So, 1) if you had the option to pick up a dreg now & drop one of your current players t dreg status at this point, would you? Or, 2) if you had the option to buy a dreg & add them to your stable without losing anyone, how much would you bid for them? Or, 3) if you are a team who just lost a player, would you be willing to spend 5 points or 10 points to pick up one of these dregs? Here are my answers:

1) No
2) Maybe 3 points
3) I definitely wouldn't spend 10, I might spend 5

BBB 2: Episodes 13 & 14

The penultimate episode this season was so dull it's barely worth mentioning. All I will say is that listening to people discussing an old man's digestive system & enlarged prostate for 30 minutes does not make for good television.

On the other hand, the finale episode was rather entertaining. A fire challenge at tribal, a new challenge where someone got to remove a jury member, and a bitter bitter jury were all enjoyable. However, I think we all agree that the million dollars went to the wrong contestant: the sole survivor was clearly Mark the Chicken. His life was literally on the line & he's the only chicken who's ever lasted a whole season!

I want to quote the surprisingly insightful Moon, who noted after episode 6: "The "Screentime Theory" says that Neal, Julia, Joe, Aubry and Cydney can't win. The "Dickhead Theory" says that Nick, probably Jason and Scot and maybe Debbie can't win. That leaves Tai and Michele." In a season full of bold moves & dumb people, Moon called this one early... and rather often in the way he poo-pooed my power rankings. And rightly so.

I want to take a moment to complain about Neal & Joe being on the jury in the first place. As players who were medevacked, they don't have the chip on their shoulder that other players do. Aubry was in their alliance & didn't have to backstab them for them to make the jury. So she can easily win their vote without having to defend or justify any of her actions. Ultimately in this case the jury was so bitter that it didn't matter. But I still don't like the decision to let them stay on the jury. And I think that Bag should tweet as much to Probst!

Finally, a note about the scoring: because Neal was removed from the jury, we also removed the points he'd initially earned by making the jury. In the end, this may not have been a million-dollar play by Michele, but it did affect the outcome of the pool!


The Teams:

Bagdrea "Beautiful Mind" - 117 points

1. Caleb (6 pts)
2. Tai (55 pts)
3. Nick (38 pts)
4. Joe (18 pts)

Doug & Bri "She-Ra" - 114 points

1. Liz (-2 pts)
2. Jenny (-6 pts)
3. Michele (87 pts)
4. Cydney (35 pts)

MoonBee "Dairy Kings" - 111 points

1. Neal (13 pts)
2. Julia (40 pts)
3. Scot (14 pts)
4. Aubry (44 pts)

Michal & Ben "Cock of the Walk" - 88 points

1. Anna (9 pts)
2. Jason (38 pts)
3. Peter (14 pts)
4. Debbie (27 pts)

Dreg: Alecia - 0 points


Prop Bets:

Stakes for each bet = 1 drink

People involved	Castaways Involved	Method of measurement	And the winner is...
Ben v. Bag	Doug's team v. Moon's team	more points	Ben
Moon & Doug	1.5 line on medevacs	Over	Moon & Doug
Ben & Bag	1.5 line on medevacs	Under	X
Ben v. Bag	Anna v. Liz	Longevity	Ben
Ben v. Moon	Anna v. Liz	Longevity	Ben
Ben v. Bag	Anna v. Liz	Points	Ben
Ben v. Moon	Anna v. Liz	Points	Ben
Ben v. Bag	Caleb v. Aubry	getting medevacked	Ben
Ben v. Bag	Debbie v. Alecia	Longevity	Ben

Next Season:

20 castaways battle it out in Fiji. The theme is Millenials v. GenX which seems pretty boring to me. Hopefully they'll have some interesting & intelligent players. I'd also love to see the final challenge of choosing to remove a jury member come back again too!

BBB 2: Episodes 11 & 12

Time is flying by, and so is this Survivor season. With only 5 players left, it feels like the finale should be next week, but previews made it seem like there are a least 2 episodes left, which is surprising.

I've missed a couple of episodes, so feel free to vote DoW for both episodes 11& 12. Plus, with a very big wedding coming up, I doubt everyone will have time to read this blog, so you have next week to vote too. (Is that a great wedding gift or what?) :)

Quick recap: Episode 11 was when Julia got voted out. There was a brief attempt at voting out Tai or at least flushing his idol, but in the end no one went for it. Episode 12 was when Tai used his extra vote to try & vote out Michele, but the way in which he approached this was so off-putting to the other players that the plan backfired even though he used it advantage of an extra vote to try & pull it off.

In regards to Jason's attempt at getting at Tai: I don't see why they didn't all go for it. Cydney & Michele had no need to "go against" their alliance on this. They could have all been on the same page & split votes. It seemed like Cydney was very open & forthcoming about this, but maybe Aubry's loyalty to Tai prevented it from happening. If so I think that was a big mistake because Tai is a huge threat to win this game. If it hadn't worked & he'd played his idol, no biggie. He'd be mad & probably wouldn't be a part of that alliance anymore, but the only person he'd have to turn to would be Jason & I don't think they'd work together.

Episode 12 was interesting because I feel like it showed Tai's character a bit more. Several people have been saying on this blog that he no longer seems like the sweet & innocent guy that he portrayed himself as at the beginning of the show. I think that proved true in this episode & probably will continue next episode. He came off pretty self-entitled at tribal council. Perhaps it's unfair to Tai, but I think he started the season as the hero & is now the villain, either in reality, in my own mind, or through careful manipulation of the footage by the producers.

I'm now cheering for Cydney to win the whole thing. I think she's got a fun & interesting personality for this game. She's not afraid to mix things up & run with her emotions, which I usually think is a bad thing. But somehow it really works for her & she always feels like she's in control of her own destiny.


The Teams:

MoonBee "Dairy Kings" - 86 points

1. Neal (23 pts)
2. Julia (40 pts)
3. Scot (14 pts)
4. Aubry (9 pts)

Michal & Ben "Cock of the Walk" - 83 points

1. Anna (9 pts)
2. Jason (38 pts)
3. Peter (9 pts)
4. Debbie (27 pts)

Bagdrea "Beautiful Mind" - 82 points

1. Caleb (6 pts)
2. Tai (35 pts)
3. Nick (38 pts)
4. Joe (3 pts)

Doug & Bri "She-Ra" - 40 points

1. Liz (-2 pts)
2. Jenny (-6 pts)
3. Michele (32 pts)
4. Cydney (16 pts)

Dreg: Alecia - 0 points


Power Rankings:

1. Beautiful Mind - With two players left & one of them being Tai, Bagdrea are the favorites to win this season. It's pretty close though & it really could (should?) come down to which team's player wins the season. It clearly won't be Joe - does this guy ever think beyond "what does Aubry want me to do?" So frustrating to see him do nothing all season! But even though he loses Beautiful Mind 1-2 points each episode due to challenge dreckitude, he's going to rake in a sizable pouch of jury points.

2. Dairy Kings - Aubry kind of annoys me. It feels like she has everything going for her - she's smart, competitive at challenges, and basically gets 2 votes at every tribal because of Joe - but she's not living up to her potential. Of course I'll be eating these words if she ends up winning, but I feel like getting rid of Jason, not going after Tai when they had the opportunity, and the Tai v. Cydney situation were all mishandled & opportunities lost. Still, this is not an intelligent group of players this season & it seems as though Aubry can afford to make a few mistakes & make final tribal.

3. She-Ra - Can it be? She-Ra, who lost their top 2 player in the 1st 3 episodes is suddenly contending! I'm a Cydney fan, but Michele is also starting to prove herself late in the game. They have a huge deficit to make up, but both women are capable of winning challenges, making final tribal, and ultimately winning. It's definitely closer than the score makes it appear.

4. Cock of the Walk - We are the first team to have lost all our players & despite our 40 point lead over She-Ra, they will make up at least 30 points even if their players only make the jury. Our team lived up to its name, and definitely proved to be far more cocky than strategic. Now it's just a question of if we're making the next level of the trophy, which I'm starting to hope we do. We've come up with some good ideas over here in Casa Greenberg....

Player Rankings:

1. Tai
2. Cydney
3. Aubry
4. Michele
5. Joe

Douche of the Week:

I'm going to vote for Tai as DoW for both episodes. First for the weird half apology he gave Jason, and then for his off-putting attitude at the last tribal council.