I'm stating the obvious here and basically repeating what Moon already said... but with all 6 players left in the game & an 18+ point advantage against the rest of the field that has a measly 4 castaways, this is more of a cage match than a melee.
So rather than beat a dead horse or discuss my opinions about one small town mayor, let's discuss Natalie. Yay!
On the list of "people we'd be most devastated to find living in our Survivor camp" Natalie is absolutely a Top 5. She might even been the Queen Bee. Other top contenders for me include J'Tia (rice burner) and Brandon Hantz (unhinged). (Some might also list Philip Jessum Herring here, but they are obviously mistaken.) There's always a decent contingent of lazy or bossy castaways, but they are rarely in combination or quite as extreme as Natalie is... err, was.
The fact that Natalie lasted all the way to day 15 (I think) is a true testament to what makes Survivor great. You may wake up ever day dreading the inevitable interactions you will have with 20% of the people living in your camp under the most intense living conditions ever. But you will keep that person around because you'd rather hate your life in the short term to give yourself even a slightly better chance to get a million dollars in the long term.
With that being said, reaching that logical point isn't something everyone is capable of, including Lyrsa and Natalia to name a couple. And even if you're already thinking that far ahead - Angelina - it's a flaw in your logic not to take into account how these other contestants will view your opinion on the matter:
To me, this episode showed that Mike is best player in the game.
Other points of disagreement/adjustment in Moon's power rankings (which overall were excellent): Gabby is seriously overrated. If she can't overcome her intimidation after having lived 5+ days with these Goliaths, she's pretty much screwed. Elizabeth & Alec should be bumped up the list - though I wouldn't have said that before watching last night's episode. I don't think Alec is as smart or savvy as Mike but I do think he had more thought process to his decision last week than he was given credit for. And I loved that Elizabeth was wary of Kara after the vote. They'd bonded early so I thought she'd fall for that "I trust you more than Alec" spiel, but she was having none of it. Good on ye, Sheila.
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| Sorry guys, the cage is full. |
So rather than beat a dead horse or discuss my opinions about one small town mayor, let's discuss Natalie. Yay!
On the list of "people we'd be most devastated to find living in our Survivor camp" Natalie is absolutely a Top 5. She might even been the Queen Bee. Other top contenders for me include J'Tia (rice burner) and Brandon Hantz (unhinged). (Some might also list Philip Jessum Herring here, but they are obviously mistaken.) There's always a decent contingent of lazy or bossy castaways, but they are rarely in combination or quite as extreme as Natalie is... err, was.
The fact that Natalie lasted all the way to day 15 (I think) is a true testament to what makes Survivor great. You may wake up ever day dreading the inevitable interactions you will have with 20% of the people living in your camp under the most intense living conditions ever. But you will keep that person around because you'd rather hate your life in the short term to give yourself even a slightly better chance to get a million dollars in the long term.
With that being said, reaching that logical point isn't something everyone is capable of, including Lyrsa and Natalia to name a couple. And even if you're already thinking that far ahead - Angelina - it's a flaw in your logic not to take into account how these other contestants will view your opinion on the matter:
- "The masses" can't stand living with Natalie
- You see the advantage of doing so and use your influence to keep Natalie around
- Now the masses can't stand Natalie, are mad at you for making them continue to live with her, and realize that you care more about strategy than them as people
- You are a threat and one of the sources of their misery. The masses vote you out.
This is where you see the difference in caliber of player. Lyrsa & Natalia made it to Step #1. Angelina made it to Step #2. Good, but not good enough. I think that Mike made saw ahead to Step #4 and decided to take a different path. He made the right move & Angelina took a big mis-step. Here's how he crushed it:
- Mike pacified the masses, building goodwill with the Davids but still keeping the door open with Goliaths since he only voted out someone that they all hated anyway
- As soon as Natalia was voted out, all Goliaths should have re-thought their game plan. Even if they go in even numbers or up 1 to the merge, it's clear that allegiances have changed. Kara & Alec made that abundantly clear through facial expressions at the reward challenge. So you need to assume that when Natalia when home you also lost Alec. That means that you weren't sitting at 8 Goliaths v. 7 Davids last episode, you were sitting at 7 Goliaths v. 7 Davids + 1 Alec. If that's where you stand, doesn't it also make sense for you to flip on the Goliaths and join the majority?
- You've now opened the door to playing both sides, aka putting yourself exactly where you want to be. Once you hit the merge, Goliaths would need to focus on taking out Davids rather than you if you've re-aligned yourself with them... or vice versa. Buying you time to build trust, make friendships, and open the door to more options for game play.
- At this point in Survivor, I think it's actually more risky to stick with your original alliance after that first tribal swap than to switch sides. When there are 3 tribes competing is the best time to make these moves as you're at the time that you're least likely to have to go to tribal council at all. When you have that opportunity, make a big move & it's unlikely you'll be back anytime soon to suffer the repercussions.
To me, this episode showed that Mike is best player in the game.
Other points of disagreement/adjustment in Moon's power rankings (which overall were excellent): Gabby is seriously overrated. If she can't overcome her intimidation after having lived 5+ days with these Goliaths, she's pretty much screwed. Elizabeth & Alec should be bumped up the list - though I wouldn't have said that before watching last night's episode. I don't think Alec is as smart or savvy as Mike but I do think he had more thought process to his decision last week than he was given credit for. And I loved that Elizabeth was wary of Kara after the vote. They'd bonded early so I thought she'd fall for that "I trust you more than Alec" spiel, but she was having none of it. Good on ye, Sheila.
The Teams:
Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 79 points
- Christian (12 pts)
- Dan (22 pts)
- Davie (15 pts)
- Alec (10 pts)
- Kara (10 pts)
- Elizabeth (10 pts)
- John (12 pts)
- Gabby (12 pts)
- John (12 pts)
- Mike (8 pts)
- Mike (8 pts)
- Nick (8 pts)
Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 46 points
- Christian (12 pts)
- Dan (22 pts)
- Alison (12 pts)
- [Bi (-5 pts)]
- [Bi (-5 pts)]
- Elizabeth (10 pts)
- [Natalia (0 pts)]
- Davie (15 pts)
- Angelina (7 pts)
- Carl (10 pts)
- [Jeremy (0 pts)]
- Carl (10 pts)
Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 32 points
- [Natalia (0 pts)]
- Gabby (12 pts)
- [Jessica (-6 pts)]
- Kara (10 pts)
- Lyrsa (8 pts)
- Lyrsa (8 pts)
- Angelina (7 pts)
- Alec (5 pts)
- Alison (5 pts)
- [Jessica (-5 pts)]
- Nick (5 pts)
- [Jeremy (0 pts)]
- [Natalie (5 pts)]
- [Natalie (5 pts)]
Power Rankings:
- Bagdrea: Seriously this is the dream team. Maybe switch out Kara for Mike & I see zero flaws. Dan is dumb but an idol magnet. Christian has the character arc story. Alec brings in challenge points. Davie has a chance to go deep. Even Elizabeth is proving her worth.
- MoonBee: See above. I'm with Doug on the Mayor's potential protein deficiency, and being a huge target post-merge. But he's absolutely playing a better social game than I ever could have expected. With that being said, I apologize for nothing.
- Phil: This team has a good head on its collective shoulders. Nick is still a twerp with his dumb alliance names but I very much appreciate his response to Natalie's coat bullying.
- Michal & Ben: Who knows, maybe Carl is in it to win it!
- Doug & Bri: With Bagdrea's team being so dominant and there being so much overlap in their teams, Doug & Bri essentially have no way to win. Unless it turns out that Alison can turn on her Rage function a la Dungeons & Dragons, and go on a huge point-earning tear.
- Eric: Eeeee.
DoW:
Natalie, for the last time!
12 comments:
1. My team sucks and I am not in last place! I AM SO HAPPY!
2. The analysis of this episode was so deep there is no way I can comprehend it.
3. What if Natalie, the DOW, is so bad she tilts you and makes you play a subpar game? Then it makes more sense to get rid of her. If you're good enough to win nothing will tilt you.
4. I have 3 women left and that includes a double Lyrsa for a total of 4 team members. All 3 women are at the bottom of their tribe. The good news is that there can be no disappointment. I have zero possibility for downside surprises and the possibility of upside surprise. I will trade double Lyrsa and Gabby and a player to be named later for Christian. Do I have any takers? I will consider all options.
5. Can I have your jacket?
6. Natalie, can I have your jacket?
7. Natalie?
8. ....natalie?
Michal--Your analysis was deep and I think you misspoke in your last bullet point. Either that or I'm more lost than Eric (which is definitely a possibility because I don't know what he means by "tilts you.")
I KNEW you wouldn't apologize, but gasping at the sight of pastries...? You do remain a mystery to your mother.
Excellent point - blog edited so it will make sense. And it wasn't just any pastry, it was a cinnamon roll. Cinnamon is spectacular.
Quick DoW vote as I don't have time for additional comments currently.
Angelina for my DoW - for the jacket thing. At least Natalie was willing to do her own dirty work. (They both are deserving, but Angelina really irked me this week)
I am with Doug - Angelina for DoW for the jacket thing, Natalie DoW Emeritus.
Natalie's most likeable moment was actually her exit interview, I just watched it.
I was also impressed by Elizabeth in this episode. She read right through a desperate Kara.
Angelina should have told Natalie she didn't vote for her instead of that transparent hug move.
It's edited to seem like if one wanders around camp for a couple hours, one will inevitably discover an idol. Curious to see if Dan can keep this one to himself. Would be a baller move to use one to save an ally and use the other for himself. Kid could make a run if he plays his cards right.
1. I cannot wait til tonight's episode! I hope trick or treating ends early.
2. I'm going to pay super close attention tonight so I can understand this strategy talk.
3. Moon's comment about wandering the island to find an idol was spot on and hilarious.
4. Natalie's jacket should be turned into an idol. Can they do that?
Eric's #4 - this!! Please!a
Angelina for DOW, that jacket campaign was pitiful to watch
Mike made a fantastic move and the blog did a great job of laying out the strategy.
Natalie, I have disliked contestants before, I really didn’t mind the people who sabotaged their own tribe out of spite but Natalie was a whole new level of abusive. I really liked how he stood up to her and called it out as bullying.
Christian is a chameleon just like Mike, they find common ground with everyone in very different ways and styles.
I can’t wait to see what this team of mine can pull out, 3rd would be a stretch goal.
DoW is Natalie's jacket.
Also, yay for Mario pics!
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