Survivor DG: Episode 4

Michal's greatest mistake wasn't drafting Natalia with her first pick. It was letting me write the blog this week.

I took great satisfaction in Natalia's exit. Imagine drafting that self-sabotaging hellion ahead of a deep, multifaceted, charismatic player like John.

Okay. The intention of this post isn't actually to trash our blog mother. Her remaining team appears pretty strong, she and her husband have crushed the pool recently and they own all of the pool's long-time records. Plus, she's a pretty cool lady. Most importantly, I'm getting maximal satisfaction out of watching Michal begrudgingly raise our team's power ranking week-by-week. I wish she could do the blog this week, because she's a terrific writer and because she'd have to painfully realize our team has 1.5x the members and 2x the points of hers. Perturbed as she might be, Michal would have a hard time ranking us lower than second this week. I'll just have to imagine her shaking her head disgustedly, gritting her teeth and placing us second behind A to Z.

This post is going to be a power rankings, but of the individual kind. Team power rankings wouldn't be insightful right now as two horses have moved way out in front, at least in terms of remaining players and points scored. Check the spreadsheet if you want to jealously gaze up at our huge leads. This is a power rankings of all the players, including the departed.


BUSTO: Jessica
Sometimes youngsters have the maturity of last year's Michael and sometimes they haven't graduated beyond narcissism and abrasiveness. Jessica was the latter. A lousy mid-round pick.

BUSTO: Jeremy
I really loved the Jeremy Experience but the man just couldn't control himself. He was the maniac in the poker tournament who won ten of the first fifteen hands and busted before the first break.

BUSTO: Bi
Let's not write a revisionist history about what a strong player Bi was before her unlucky injury. Bi was never going anywhere in this game. She was a bit of a hothead and didn't appear to be forging solid alliances. But of course it was unlucky for Bri & Doug to have her depart this early. The rules give -5 points for med-evackers and 0 to -10 points for quitters, determined by pool vote. I'm not exactly sure how this works, but if I'm voting, I would give Bi -3 points. If it's a binary 0 or -10, I would give her 0.

BUSTO: Natalia
Natalia had the appearance of a strong player, but those who investigated beyond the surface found a concerning underbelly of arrogance and pushiness. Her early exit was entirely self-inflicted. All she had to do was throw Alec the slightest bone and he would have been happy to make the easy vote with her and Kara. At least she had the self-awareness to admit she blew it in her bustout interview.

15. Natalie
Could a mature, self-assured player grab Natalie and use her as a coattail-riding vote deep into the game? I doubt it. She's just too abrasive. Nobody likes her.

14. Lyrsa
She's certainly capable of making a run if everything breaks right, but Lyrsa doesn't appear capable of winning challenges, rousing votes or garnering respect at Final Tribal.

13. Elizabeth
I'm not giving Elizabeth credit for turning the tables and upsetting Natalia. I'm giving Natalia credit for that, helped by an overeager...

12. Alec
Smug in his backstab of Natalia, Alec may have signed his own death warrant while trying to build his resumé. Now all the Goliaths know he can't be trusted. With Carl joining the Orange Tribe, Alec is no sure bet to even survive the next vote. Sometimes the dumb surfer guy is actually a disarmingly shrewd charmer like Jay and sometimes the dumb surfer guy is just a dumb surfer guy.

11. Nick
The Kentucky lawyer has a thing for alliances with stronger males and a thing for corny nicknames for those alliances. The Rockstar Alliance isn't particularly clever or particularly staunch, but it's good enough to give us a team name to replace #vytas. We're the Slamtown Rockstars. At least until we think of something better.

10. Alison
We haven't seen or heard much from Alison. She seems unlikely to ruffle many feathers or make a serious push at the million bucks.

9. Dan
Dumb Dan bemoaned being separated from his girlfriend, but it was the best thing that could have happened to him. Dan landed on the powerhouse Green tribe where he should continue to accumulate points and build relationships. In the unlikely event of a Green loss, Dan could be their first to go.

8. Kara
She's sharp enough to appreciate the separation from Dan, but the switch didn't go well for Kara. She was the only one who stuck with Natalia and would appear to be Orange's next target. I think Kara is calm and savvy enough to mend things with Alec - or help arrange his demise.

7. Mike
He's proven he can hang with the kids and he's proven his strategic acumen. My issue with Mike is the same issue he identified - he's on the Purple tribe which figures to be making frequent Tribal Council appearances.

6. Carl
Cool new twist with the "Idol Nullifier." It's the rare advantage that's optimized by sharing with others. It will be interesting to see how it's employed by Carl and his pals. His stay on Exile Island shouldn't hurt him, as he's re-entering the game onto a tribe without set alliances. Plus it would be a surprise for Orange to return to Tribal before Purple.

5. Angelina
She did land on Purple, but it would be an upset to see Angelina removed from her tribe before Natalie or other Purples. I'm concerned she might be a little too headstrong, a little too unnecessarily influential, but it wouldn't be surprised to see Angelina head a post-merge female alliance down the stretch.

4. John
The Mayor of Slamtown is doing everything a contender should be doing at this stage. He doesn't complain, he doesn't ruffle feathers, he gets screentime, he's shown charisma and self-awareness, he's linked up with the right people, he's on the powerhouse tribe and he hasn't yet displayed a protein problem.

3. Gabby
Gabby is a little tough to evaluate at this point, as she's had some emotional struggles and considers herself first on the chopping block of her tribe. But that is the powerhouse tribe, she has the strongest alliance in the game with its strongest player and she knows how to talk to people. The edit suggests a deep run.

2. Davie
It seems elementary, but most castaways can't keep their idols to themselves. Davie has managed to do it so far - and managed to negotiate disadvantageous tribe swap & council without using that idol. He deftly manipulated Goliath-weighted Orange to a Natalia vote without any fanfare - a sign of great social skill.

1. Christian
Christian has been the most powerful castaway since day one. He's also gotten the most airtime. Seemingly everyone wants to ally with him. His alliances are so intimate betrayal seems unlikely. He's already building a resumé for Final Tribal and figures to garner plenty of points along the way with his puzzle prowess. Christian went 1/2 in the draft and I assume that's where he'd go if we re-drafted tomorrow.