Brains = 4 (Joe, Debbie, Neal, Aubry)
Brawn = 3 (Jason, Scot, Cydney)
Beauty = 4 (Tai, Nick, Julia, Michele)
If Aubry had stuck with Julia & then Julia ended up going home in the tiebreak (not sure how this really would have gone down, but let's just assume this in my hypothetical), then Brains would have entered the merge 5 strong with the other tribes only having 3 each. This probably would have been problematic as Brawn & Beauty could have paired up (with that great Tai/Scot bond bringing them all together) and taken out Brains one-by-one. Plus, Peter very well could betray them at any moment.
So it probably is good that Aubry changed her mind at the last moment. Not sure what her chances are now, but I'm guessing they'll be better than if she'd gone the other way.
How will things play out in the merge? I have no idea! I'm always surprised, though, at how much the new alliances formed during the tribe switch-up often take precedence over the much longer-standing original tribal alliances. The only thing I'm feeling pretty certain about is that Scot, Jason, Tai & Cydney will probably be a force to be reckoned with.
The Teams:
Bagdrea "Beautiful Mind" - 52 points
- Caleb (6 pts)
- Tai (19 pts)
- Nick (19 pts)
- Joe (8 pts)
- Anna (9 pts)
- Jason (14 pts)
- Peter (9 pts)
- Debbie (13 pts)
- Neal (18 pts)
- Julia (13 pts)
- Scot (5 pts)
- Aubry (9 pts)
- Liz (-2 pts)
- Jenny (-6 pts)
- Michele (18 pts)
- Cydney (9 pts)
Dreg: Alecia - 0 points
Power Rankings:
1. Dairy Kings: All of MoonBee's players made the merge which is huge. With the merge taking place next week & Peter being gone from the game, I have no idea who might be on the chopping block next week. Based on where things stand at this moment, though, these players all seem like they'll be safe though. I think Scot is capable of going all the way to final tribal, but I'm not really seeing this for any of the others (except maybe Julia as a coattail rider). Still, it's a strong supporting cast that will likely bring in points in challenges.
2. Beautiful Mind: I think Tai is the favorite to win at this point, but I don't much care for the rest of this team. How much longer can Crusty Joe make it? I expect he'll have a lot of trouble adapting to the new dynamics that the merge brings. Nick is a jackass, and that's pretty much all I'll say about him. He might be able to bring in some big points in challenges though before getting voted out. Not sure it'll be enough though, even if Tai wins.
3. Cock of the Walk: Turns out Peter was most useful to our team for his DOW run, but now it looks like he didn't get even get that right! Dr. Douche needed to stick around for another 1-2 episodes in order to lock that up. I think Debbie & Jason are both canny players, but they are also both very capable of rubbing people the wrong way. They could go far or get voted out next episode - both are very realistic options. This team is on thin ice.
4. She-Ra: I hope Michele gets back at Nick's chauvinist douchery with a good ole fashioned backstabbing. As Doug noted in comments, Cydney is doing pretty well for herself. Still, this team is down a lot of points & Cydney on her own won't be enough to get this team the win. She might be enough to keep them from making the trophy next season though!
Player Rankings:
- Tai
- Scot
- Debbie
- Aubry
- Jason
- Neal
- Cydney
- Julia
- Joe
- Nick
- Michele
Peter, sadly for the last time! Voting him DOW each week is the only thing I'll miss about Peter. Looks like Nick may pick up this fallen DOW crown moving forward...
4 comments:
I agree that Scot, Jason, Tai and Cydney are a force. I think Scot is slightly more aligned with Jason than Tai, despite their bromance. So, I worry about Tai in this group a bit. Like you said, though, anything can happen post-merge. Peter for DoW.
Always Peter for DoW.
Also, we finished the trophy and it's ready to hand off!
No clue how this is going to shake out. The "Screentime Theory" says that Neal, Julia, Joe, Aubry and Cydney can't win. The "Dickhead Theory" says that Nick, probably Jason and Scot and maybe Debbie can't win. That leaves Tai and Michele. Not sure what Vegas has Tai but I'd likely fire a big bet on him. Maybe Debbie proves to be a fly in the ointment - could be a season where a disliked player wins by going with two even less liked players.
Dr. Douche for DoW.
Check my comments on the last two blogs for some bets I wanted to make before Vegas took em off the board.
I haven't seen tonight's (3/30) episode yet. About to watch it. Quickly, my DoW vote goes to Nick for how he treated Michelle this episode. I think Peter already locked up this week's vote, but despite how douchey Peter constantly is, I thought Nick was deserving this week.
The merge will hopefully level some things out again. I agree with the rankings, but we'll see if some new alliances will change some things up.
Go Merge!
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