Guest Blogger: Moon
Survivor: Cagayan is quietly turning into an intriguing season. Most of the weak/stupid/douchey castaways have been cast away, leaving delectable inner fruit for us to enjoy down the stretch. Tony is the straw that stirs this concoction, and his asinine "Final Five" exclamations drew a line in the sand between the two tribes - just in time for the merge.
The trailer for next week's merge episode unsurprisingly cast the "Final Five" against the "Zombies" or whatever you want to call the Brain-led, Beauty-bodied tribe, with former Brawn member Sarah as the fulcrum. You'd have to think those "Final Five" ejaculations would point Sarah towards the Zombies while dissuading the other Zombies from jumping ship. The writing may be on the wall for the "Final Five" already.
LJ is the only true player of the Five, the only one who might be able to save them, or at least save himself. He's played a brilliant game - steadily collecting prestige with the audience while somehow maintaining a low profile on the island. He's already worked his way out of a couple jams and has an idol in his back pocket. He inspires allegiance and is capable of winning an individual immunity or two if need be.
LJ is the favorite at this moment, but he's no guarantee to even make the jury. It's wide open. The odds of each castaway winning might look something like this:
LJ: 3-1
Spencer: 4-1
- He was wise to hold it together during the darkest days of Brain's lobotomy, because now he's got as much power as anyone on the show.
Kass: 7-1
Tasha: 7-1
- It's amusing how quickly Brains' cerebrum has gained control of this game - without any audacious moves. There's no reason these ladies can't make final three, but they'd be wise to jettison Spencer along the way in favor of a less savory character like Tony or Morgan.
Sarah: 9-1
- Sarah finds herself without an alliance, but she's got the chops to win it if she can maneuver her way through the next couple votes.
Trish: 10-1
- Trish is poised to make a deep run in this game but she's got a problem: people don't really seem to like her.
Jeremiah: 13-1
- Tony orchestrated a randomly cold attack on Jeremiah, but give the Southerner credit for fighting through it. Jeremiah isn't stunningly athletic, charming or crafty, but he is a little of all of those things.
Woo: 17-1
- Woo is who we thought he was - a point-generator without the social game to seriously threaten the winner's circle.
Morgan: 20-1
- It's notable that Morgan survived longer than Alexis. Early on it looked like Morgan was standing on very thin ice, but she wasn't even considered in the last vote. She's now on firmer ground.
Tony: 25-1
- Is there anyone Tony could beat at final tribal? Maybe
Jefra: 30-1
- Jefra has yet to distinguish herself. She's not drawing dead, but will have to make explicit moves down the stretch to gain recognition from the jury.
Standings:
1. LJ (17 points)
2. Trish (13 points)
J'Tude: 26 points
1. Tony (11 points)
2. Kass (4 points)
3. Jeremiah (8 points)
WooBrr: 25 points
1. Woo (13 points)
4. Jefra (10 points)
Sinkers and Floaters: 21 points
1. Sarah (9 points)
2. Morgan (2 points)
3. Tasha (4 points)
4. Spencer (6 points)
Power Rankings:
1. Sinkers and Floaters
Great episode for Sinkers and Floaters. Tasha and Spencer continued to gain power and stability, Morgan moved up in the pecking order, Sarah is going to be a player in the next episode, and Lindsey's exit anchors the Cougars within striking distance.
2. Boston Cougars Lindsey's unexpected departure was a crusher for the Cougs. Not only did we drop ten points, but we lost the implied value of her future challenge/coattail points. Before this episode it appeared as if we might have a shot at winning the pool without the Sole Survivor, but those dreams are dead. It's LJ or Bust for the Cougs.
3. J'Tude
Tony is a maniac. The man is too into the game. He needs to lay low for a few days and arrange his endgame alliances - if he even survives the merge. A vengeful Sarah may spell doom for him at the next Tribal.
Doubri is in trouble. If they haven't already, they need to temper their hopes for this season and get ready for the Bachelorette pool. The goal now is to avoid last place.
6 comments:
BBRRRAAAAAAIIINNNSS!!!
Based on the format Survivor has used for the past nine seasons it seems likely everyone left will make the jury. 11 castaways remain and if 3 people make final tribal that would be an 8 person jury. In the last nine seasons they have always had 3 finalists and at least 8 jury members.
Moon, since you appear to be changing the team names perhaps it is time to change Sinkers and Floaters to Floaters. Or maybe _______ and Floaters.
Doug's comments from last week seem especially on point based on the crazy turbulence of this week's episode. Team ______'s (He was also right about this being annoying to type) chances of cruising to victory are no more. Team Floaters and Floaters is now a powerhouse and in great position to etch their name, and not their creative construction talents, upon the trophy for the first time.
If I had to guess I would say that Sarah will go back to her former alliance rather than stay with the new group - who she never really seemed to bond with. Hopefully Tony will cop talk her into it if she is reluctant. I worry about Tony misplaying his Idol but whatever he does it will probably entertaining.
DoW goes to the quitter - she is who we thought she was! Tony was a close 2nd for his douchey/cunning trick on Jeremiah. Alexis 3rd for her overplaying of the game and inevitable sob story after the votes.
DoW to the quitter. But honorary DoW to Moon who continues to think he can change his team name after repeatedly missing the deadline to submit a team name in a timely fashion even with reminders.
DoW Lindsey.
DoW Lindsey.
My DoW goes to the quitter. Auto DoW for quitters IMO. My 2nd place vote goes to Tony for screeching out "Final 5! Final 5!" like a 6th grade girl after winning the challenge. That was not only douchey, it was just dumb.
I hope the merge brings about more possibilities of alliances and backstabbings than the pool member's opinions suggest. I don't feel that anyone has truely been ruling this game to this point. Maybe Tony, but he has paired his big moves with bone-headed ones. The brains tribe members have potential to start running the show, but at this point I don't feel like there is a "Tyson" that will crush at the final vote. This should mean that this game is wide open. Maybe Woo can surprise all of us and use some ninja skills to orchestrate a few big moves... eh? eh?
C'mon, Woo! Do something...
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