Bag's NFL Picks Week 17

Like:
Giants        -3    hosting    Cowboys
Titans        -2.5    at        Texans
Colts        +4    at        Jaguars
Chargers    +3    at        Raiders

If forced to choose:
Eagles     -9    hosting    Redskins
Falcons    -12.5    hosting    Bucs
Rams        +9    hosting    Niners
Lions        -2.5    at        Packers       
Saints        -7    hosting    Panthers
Ravens    -2.5    at        Bengals
Dolphins    -1    hosting    Jets
Bills        +12.5    at        Patriots
Broncos    -3    hosting    Chiefs
Seahawks    +3    at        Cardinals
Browns    +7    hosting    Steelers
Vikings    +1    hosting    Bears

Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    17-11
Like:         19-18-2
Forced:    34-36-2
All Games:    70-65-4

NFL Picks Week 17

Really Like:

PACKERS +3.5 over Lions - YES

SAINTS -9 over Panthers - YES

Ravens -2.5 over BENGALS - YES

Steelers -7 over BROWNS - NO

Like:

Chargers +3 RAIDERS - YES

BRONCOS -3.5 over Chiefs - NO

PATRIOTS -11.5 over Bills - YES

DOLPHINS -1.5 over Jets - YES

Titans -3 over TEXANS - NO

GIANTS -3 over Cowboys - YES

If Forced to Choose:

RAMS +10.5 over 49ers - YES

EAGLES -9 over Redskins - YES

Bears -1 over VIKINGS - YES

Seahawks +3 over CARDINALS - PUSH

Colts +4 over JAGUARS - NO

FALCONS -12.5 over Bucs - YES

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 12-13-1

Like season record: 14-11-1

If forced to choose season record: 21-19-2

All games season record: 47-43-4

NFL Picks Week 16

Really Like:

Browns +12.5 over RAVENS - YES

49ers -3.5 over SEAHAWKS - NO

PACKERS -13 over Bears - YES

SAINTS -6.5 over Falcons - 

Texans -7 over COLTS - NO

Like:

LIONS -2.5 over Chargers - YES

COWBOYS -1.5 over Eagles - NO

Raiders +2.5 over CHIEFS - YES

Broncos -3 over BILLS - NO

PANTHERS -7.5 over Bucs - YES

If Forced to Choose:

Giants +3 over JETS - YES

REDSKINS -6.5 over Vikings - NO

Rams +14 over STEELERS - NO

BENGALS -4 over Cardinals - YES

TITANS -7.5 over Jaguars - NO

PATRIOTS -9.5 over Dolphins - NO

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 9-11-1

Like season record: 11-9-1

If forced to choose season record: 19-15-2

All games season record: 39-35-4

Bag's NFL Picks Week 16

Really Like:
Texans     -6    at        Colts
Panthers    -7.5    hosting    Bucs
Chargers    +2.5    at        Lions
Saints        -7    hosting    Falcons

Like:
Broncos    -3    at        Bills
Redskins    -6.5    hosting    Vikings
Niners    -2    at        Seahawks
Eagles    +2.5    at        Cowboys

If forced to choose:
Raiders    +1    at        Chiefs
Titans        -8    hosting    Jaguars
Bengals    -4.5    hosting    Cardinals
Patriots    -10    hosting    Dolphins
Browns    +13.5    at        Ravens
Giants        +3    at        Jets
Rams        +14.5    at        Steelers
Packers    -13    hosting    Bears

Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    15-9
Like:         18-16-1
Forced:    29-33-2
All Games:    62-58-3

South Pacific: Ep 14

This ended up being a record-setting season - Moon set a new all-time high with 195 points! A monster score, wiping out Doug/Bri's 150-something victory that used to hold the spot. Granted, with some hefty rule changes, it's not too surprising the record was broken, but Moon really blew it right out of the water.


The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 195 pts
1. Ozzy (73 pts)
2. Sophie (89 pts) 
3. Jim (33 pts)

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 112 pts
1. Albert (52 pts)
2. Rick (27 pts) 
3. Dawn (33 pts)

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 107 pts 
1. Cochran (26 pts)
2. Elyse (12 pts)
3. Coach (69 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 62 pts
1. Keith (27 pts)
2. Brandon (27 pts)
3. Stacey (8 pts)

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 55 pts
1. Mikayla (13 pts)
2. Christine (18 pts)
3. Edna (24 pts)

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 42 pts
1. Papa Bear (7 pts) 
2. Whitney (33 pts)
3. Semhar (2 pts)

Thoughts on the Season:

In a season that started chock-full of blind-sides and betrayals, I thought the latter half of the season was a bit of a let-down. That being said, I was convinced that Coach had a lock on the victory... up until Tribal Council that is! Sophie represented herself at final tribal better than almost anyone else I've seen. Earl & JT are probably in that "elite verbal crushers" category also. 

Ultimately, I do think that this was Coach's season to lose, and lose it he did! He ended up getting 3 votes - from Edna, Cochran, and Rick. I was pretty surprised that Ozzy & Whitney, two "Sophie is a brat" haters, both voted for Sophie! Sophie won votes from all Savaii members (except Cochran) and Brandon (which I like to think is a result of her revealing how Coach conned him with the hidden immunity idol). He really had no idea how to win over a jury, even with Edna's help! I thought Edna was a real treat at the final tribal, I loved her speech. I hope that more jury members tell off the jury in the future!  

I enjoyed many of the characters from this season - it was nice to have Coach & Ozzy back, even though I generally didn't like either of them. I also liked Cochran, and there are some of us who think he'll make a second appearance as a veteran on the show! Mostly this season had competent players, but even those who weren't - cough cough, Brandon - were very entertaining. While no one topped Philip for pure entertainment, that's a pretty high standard to reach.

I found Brandon's story at the reunion show unsurprising. Based on what we know about the other Hantz's (Evil Russ & Papa Hantz) these are people who would be extremely pleased with the reputation that Evil Russ made for the family. These are also people who are probably mortified by Brandon's attitude & mental non-toughness. 

Final thought: PLLEEEAASE do NOT have a Hantz v. Hantz season!

Thoughts on Next Season:

Next season is Survivor: One World, and is the 24th season in the series. It also appears to be filming in Samoa AGAIN which is a bummer. It airs in February, so start getting excited!

Overall I think having the two tribes living together from the start is not super exciting. There will be no mystery left, and far less excitement when reaching the merge. However, there are some things that interest me. I'm curious to see how much of an influence one tribe will have on the other's votes in a pre-merged situation. It also seems like cross-tribal alliances could (and SHOULD) develop that could result in some fascinating politicking. If they do it "right," throwing challenges could become much more common, and being with the "in" crowd could become even more vital for survival. Only time will tell though... happily, that time is just a short 2 months away!

I hope that next season focuses a little less on religion! First Matty, then Brandon/Coach, all of whom have pretty poor theology... it just gets draining after a while. Maybe next season the contestants can have a different obsession. Cooking, maybe? A group that creates their own 18-hole golf course? I'd even take a different religion - how cool would a Pagan Redemption Island be?

Unfortunately, by the time the next season starts, Mr. Moon will be across the pond & living in ETHIOPIA!! So we'll have to figure that pool out early to try & fit him in.

Rule Changes?

-  I like awarding points by vote received for final tribal, but I think that a bottom-line 25 points is too high for those making the finals. I suggest dropping this down to 15-20 points instead.

- Bag came up with a great idea for Redemption Island - instead of getting 3 points per RI victory, we should have "bounties" on the players instead. This would only change things in a 3+ player RI battle. Theoretically, if 1 player knocks out 2 players in a 3-way RI battle, that player would win 6 points. If there's a 3-way battle & only 1 player gets knocked out, the other 2 would split his/her bounty & collect 1.5 points each.

-  With so many individual immunity challenges also being indiv reward challenges, I think we need to adjust these numbers. Winning 10 points for 1 challenge seems too high to me. 

- Moon doesn't like the -5 points for NOT playing your immunity idol on the last day you can play it. Being someone who recently reaped the "benefits" of this rule, I disagree. I think jackasses like Coach should be punished for that sort of cockiness. (I also think this is a good indicator of why Coach didn't win...)

South Pacific: Ep 13

Coming down to the final episode, I don't think it's ever truly been a 3-horse race before. But it definitely is this time! Due to a rule change this year, it's hard to predict who will win. This season, everyone who makes the Final 3 automatically gets 25 points. Additionally, they'll earn 5 points for every vote they receive. With 9 jury members, this means that there's 45 points out there for the winning. This means that Top 3, BBB, and D&D are all still in the game (although some moreso than others).

The finale is on Sunday - it should be a good one!!


The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 107 pts
1. Ozzy (46 pts)
2. Sophie (28 pts)
[3. Jim (33 pts)]

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 77 pts
1. Albert (26 pts)
2. Rick (17 pts)
[3. Dawn (33 pts)]

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 72 pts
[1. Cochran (26 pts)]
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (34 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 62 pts
[1. Keith (27 pts)]
2. Brandon (27 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 55 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]
[2. Christine (18 pts)]
[3. Edna (24 pts)]

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 42 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
[2. Whitney (33 pts)]
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Top 3 - Sophie did a good job of getting out of a sticky situation last episode. All eyes were on her & yet in the end both Albert & Brandon were in more danger than she was. If she makes final 4 she may be the player to beat in the endurance/mental toughness final challenge... unless Ozzy is there. Either way, this team is favored to win that challenge and increase their lead. 

2. Dungeons & Dragons - I can't believe that everyone left wants to take Coach with them to the finals. I say "wants" but this may just be their way of saying they're too scared to try and take someone out who has an idol. In any case, it's great for me! Who does Coach really want to take to the finals with him, though? At this point it seems like Rick & Albert would be his best options, but if he's sticking with this whole "go to the end with the strongest" plan, then he'll probably end up taking Ozzy & Sophie. If he does that, there's no way I can win.

3. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - Stupid Albert. All his failed coup attempts are finally catching up with him. Lucky for him that Brandon is so easy manipulated that he bought himself at least 3 more days on the island. Next week a castaway returns who may have a bigger target on their back than Albert, so he may eke through the next challenge, too! After that it's anything goes.

4. ICRWYNISTB - Dachui finally started earning points again, and then Brandon immediately tossed whatever hope remained right into the garbage. This has not been a good season for Dachui.  

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - Bagged!

6. Country Bears - Crushed!

Bag's NFL Picks Week 15

Really Like:
Packers    -13.5    at        Chiefs
Saints        -7    at        Vikings
Titans        -6.5    at        Colts
Bengals    -3.5    at        Rams
Cardinals    -6.5    hosting    Browns

Like:
Cowboys    -7    at        Bucs
Lions        -1    at        Raiders
Patriots    -6    at        Broncos
Eagles    -2.5    hosting    Jets
Texans    O45.5    hosting    Panthers

If forced to choose:
Giants        -7    hosting    Redskins
Seahawks    +4    at        Bears
Ravens    -2.5    at        Chargers
Steelers    +1    at        Niners
Jaguars    +11    at        Falcons
Texans    -6.5    hosting    Panthers
Bills        -1.5    hosting    Dolphins


Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    13-6
Like:         15-15
Forced:    28-27-2
All Games:    56-48-2

NFL Picks Week 15

Really Like:

Ravens -2.5 over CHARGERS - 

Jets +2.5 over EAGLES - NO

Titans -6.5 over COLTS - NO

Bengals -6.5 over RAMS - YES

Like:

Packers -14 over CHIEFS - NO

GIANTS -6.5 over Redskins - NO

BEARS -3.5 over Seahawks - NO

TEXANS -6.5 over Panthers - NO

Cowboys -6.5 over BUCS - YES

Saints -7 over VIKINGS - YES

If Forced to Choose:

49ERS -2.5 over Steelers - 

BRONCOS +6 over Patriots - NO

RAIDERS +1 over Lions - PUSH

Dolphins +1 over BILLS - YES

Jaguars +11 over FALCONS - NO

CARDINALS -6.5 over Browns - NO

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 8-8-1

Like season record: 9-5-1

If forced to choose season record: 17-12-1

All games season record: 34-25-3

South Pacific: Ep 12

Cochran played his final challenge much like he did the rest of the game - frenetically, and with every expectation that he would lose. Maybe he just doesn't realize how defeatist he is/sounds. If he actually had faith in himself that he was capable of succeeding in challenges, I think he would have done much better overall. Ozzy's attitude afterwards I found insulting though; he didn't need so sound THAT surprised that Cochran was able to keep it close!

I was rooting for Edna to pull a coup, not because I like her, but because I wanted things to get shaken up a bit. But Coach has too good of a thing going for him, so I'm not surprised he didn't step up for her. Besides which, it would be hard to argue that he played the game with "honor and integrity" at final tribal if he backstabbed his alliance right near the end. Plus, I think that he still believes that he has her vote, so he probably wanted her on the jury anyways!

In the overall score of Savaii Alpha Male, Ozzy has obviously won. In the overall record of attempted coups that Albert has been involved in, I think it's now 0-4.

And how about the super creepy Hantz father? Everything about him was wrong. He looked a lot like Brandon but way too put together to be out in the wilderness. He was completely unsupportive of his son, who is clearly going through a difficult time while he's out there. Telling him that he has a terrible strategy when his son is explaining to him the spiritual & emotional journey that he's taking is NOT being a good parent. Then thinking that he can walk into this game & suddenly be a major strategist & influence on the game? Obviously we know who Brandon inherited his crazy from. I was pleased to see how insulted Coach was by that.

What puzzled me the most in this episode was when Coach approached Ozzy & said that he wanted to take him to the final 3. He said that he meant it, but will he actually go through with it? I'm not sure. It doesn't make any sense to me. Does Coach think that Ozzy won't win any votes? If Ozzy makes the finals I'm pretty sure that all of the Savaii jury (except maybe Cochran) will vote for him. That's already 4 votes - he'd only need 1 more to win it!


The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 104 pts
1. Ozzy (43 pts)
2. Sophie (28 pts)
[3. Jim (33 pts)]

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 76 pts
1. Albert (26 pts)
2. Rick (16 pts)
[3. Dawn (33 pts)]

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 72 pts
[1. Cochran (26 pts)]
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (34 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 52 pts
[1. Keith (27 pts)]
2. Brandon (17 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 45 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]
[2. Christine (18 pts)]
3. Edna (14 pts)

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 42 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
[2. Whitney (33 pts)]
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Top 3 - I hope Sophie finally starts to make moves now. She's been talking & thinking about moves this whole time & has done absolutely nothing. It's now or never, lady! Please prove that you're not just a windbag. 

2. Dungeons & Dragons - I still think Coach is the favorite to win it, but I still have a pretty significant point disadvantage to overcome. I'm sort of hoping that Coach will have a successful play of the immunity idol to give me a 10 point boost!

3. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - My money's on Albert being the next to go - Rick wants him gone, and Coach should want him gone. They only need one more to pull it off and I think Sophie could be convinced. 

4. ICRWYNISTB - Brandon is a close second though to getting voted off next. He may just be an unbearable personality to deal with now that they've made Final Five. I'm keeping my fingers crossed it's Albert though. 

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - I REALLY hope Edna beats Ozzy on RI. That would be huge for me & Doug/Bri in the pool, but even more importantly, it'd be so amazing if Ozzy's reign of terror was toppled by a tiny little woman.

6. Country Bears - Crushed!

NFL Picks Week 14

Really Like:

LIONS -8 over Vikings - NO

49ers -3.5 over CARDINALS - NO

Saints -3.5 over TITANS - YES

DOLPHINS -3 over Eagles - NO

Bills +7 over CHARGERS - NO

Like:

Texans +3 over BENGALS - YES 

Raiders +11.5 over PACKERS - NO

Colts +16 over RAVENS - YES

BRONCOS -3.5 over Bears - NO

Bucs PK over JAGUARS - NO

PANTHERS +2.5 over Falcons - NO 

If Forced to Choose:

Patriots -8 over REDSKINS - NO

Giants +3.5 over COWBOYS - YES

Browns +14 over STEELERS - YES

Chiefs +9 over JETS - NO
SEAHAWKS -8.5 over Rams - yes

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 7-4-1

Like season record: 7-1-1

If forced to choose season record: 14-10-1

All games season record: 28-15-3

Bag's NFL Picks Week 14

Really Like:
Packers    -11    hosting    Raiders
Saints        -3.5    at        Titans
Patriots    -8    at        Redskins
Niners    -4    at        Cardinals
Giants        +3    at        Cowboys
Seahawks    -6.5    hosting    Rams

Like:
Dolphins    -3    hosting    Eagles
Panthers    +3    hosting    Falcons (over 48)
Bucs        -1    at        Jaguars
Broncos    +3.5    hosting    Bears

If forced to choose:
Steelers    -14    hosting    Browns
Colts        +16.5    at        Ravens
Texans    +3    at        Bengals
Jets        -9    hosting    Chiefs
Lions        -7    hosting    Vikings
Chargers    -7    hosting    Bills

Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    9-4
Like:         14-12
Forced:    24-25-2
All Games:    45-41-2

South Pacific: Ep 11

Sigh. Cochran is finally gone after his long claw through this game. In the end my feelings for him are decidedly tepid. After a while I got sick of his defeatist attitude and constant effort to sound & act like Woody Allen. If he didn't act like a huge underdog the entire time maybe the others wouldn't have treated him like one. I hope he continues to do Coach Chi - I think he needs it.

On the other hand, Ozzy is thriving! He's doing his own impersonation of the Irish Braveheart guy - "It's MY island!" At this point I'm just assuming that he'll make it back into the game. I wonder if the Savaii members will vote for him if he makes Final Tribal? I would assume so - he might even get Cochran's vote since he seemed so upset about being voted out 7th. 

The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 101 pts
1. Ozzy (40 pts)
2. Sophie (28 pts)
[3. Jim (33 pts)]

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 75 pts
1. Albert (26 pts)
2. Rick (16 pts)
[3. Dawn (33 pts)]

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 55 pts
1. Cochran (16 pts) 
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (27 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 51 pts
[1. Keith (27 pts)]
2. Brandon (16 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 45 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]

[2. Christine (18 pts)]

3. Edna (14 pts)

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 42 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
[2. Whitney (33 pts)]
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Top 3 - I've moved Moon back into first place because I think that Ozzy & Sophie are both in as secure a position as they can be at this moment. Plus, he has a decent sized lead over the rest of us, so he's got more wiggle room with the points.

2. Dungeons & Dragons - I'm keeping myself ranked second because I still think that Coach will outlast Rick & the Prince. I'm wondering if one of the reasons Coach didn't change his vote was because that'd mean he'd have to side with the lazy guy in camp. Obviously staying loyal played a major role too, but it also seems like his dislike of Albert may have been a factor.

3. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - Rick speaks!! Who knew? Albert is such a weird person to watch on this show - he keeps trying to make moves and he fails every single time. He failed with Mikayla, with the turn against Edna, and now with the turn against Rick. And yet he's still in the game. You'd think with such an obvious drive for betrayal that the others would have voted him out by now. I guess it's just because he's so bad at it that he's still in the game. I think once they reach final 5 though he'll be one of the first to go.

4. ICRWYNISTB - Team Psycho continues to deliver with an uncomfortable tribal council. It's funny because no one else on the tribe even cares anymore. Brandon gets really distraught and they all get really bored & wait for it to pass.

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - It seems like the unpredictability of this game is over, so it looks like Bag's team will be the next to go extinct. It's too bad; Edna finally tried to make a move, and it just didn't work out for her. I was sure that Coach was going to switch, I'm sad I was wrong.

6. Country Bears - Team Crushed is officially done. Did anyone else think that Whitney looked stoned during that RI challenge? She seemed soooo out of it.

Bag's NFL Picks Week 13

Really Like:
Eagles    -3    at        Seahawks
Broncos    +2    at        Vikings
Packers    -7    at        Giants

Like:
Ravens    -6.5    at        Browns
Jets        -3    at        Redskins
Panthers    +3    at        Bucs
Cowboys    -4.5    at        Cardinals

If forced to choose:
Titans        +2.5    at        Bills
Bears        -7    hosting    Chiefs
Dolphins    -3    hosting    Raiders
Steelers    -6.5    hosting    Bengals
Texans    +2.5    hosting    Falcons
Saints        -9    hosting    Lions
Niners    -13.5    hosting    Rams
Patriots    -20.5    hosting    Colts
Jaguars    +3    hosting    Chargers

Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    8-2
Like:         11-11
Forced:    18-22-2
All Games:    35-35-2

NFL Picks Week 13

Really Like:

Jets -3 over REDSKINS

Packers -7 over GIANTS

Cowboys -4.5 over CARDINALS

Chargers -2.5 over JAGUARS

Like:

Ravens -6.5 over BROWNS

Broncos +1 over VIKINGS

If Forced to Choose:

DOLPHINS -3 over Raiders

Falcons -2.5 over TEXANS

Titans +1.5 over BILLS

SEAHAWKS +3 over Eagles

Bengals +6.5 over STEELERS

Panthers +3.5 over BUCS

49ERS -13 over Rams

SAINTS -9 over Lions

Chiefs +7 over BEARS

PATRIOTS -20 over Colts

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 5-2-1

Like season record: 5-1-1

If forced to choose season record: 7-7-1

All games season record: 17-10-3

Bag's NFL Picks Week 12

Really Like:
Packers    -4.5    at        Lions
Panthers    -3    at        Colts

Like:
Bengals    -7.5    hosting    Browns
Texans    -4    at        Jaguars
Titans        -3.5    hosting    Bucs
Bears        +4    at        Raiders
Seahawks    -3.5    hosting    Redskins
Patriots    -3.5    at        Eagles
Saints        -7    hosting    Giants

If forced to choose:
Dolphins    +7    at        Cowboys
Niners    +3.5    at        Ravens
Rams        -3    hosting    Cardinals
Bills        +9    at        Jets
Falcons    -9.5    hosting    Vikings
Broncos    +6    at        Chargers
Steelers    -10.5    at        Chiefs


Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    6-2
Like:         7-8
Forced:    14-19-2
All Games:    26-29-2

NFL Picks Week 12

Really Like:

Panthers -3.5 over COLTS

Packers -6 over LIONS

Texans -3 over JAGUARS

Patriots -3 over EAGLES

RAIDERS -5 over Bears

Like:

Dolphins +7 over COWBOYS

49ers +3 over RAVENS

TITANS -3 over Bucs

SAINTS -7 over Giants

If Forced to Choose:

Steelers -10.5 over CHIEFS

Broncos +6.5 over CHARGERS

SEAHAWKS -4 over Redskins

FALCONS -9.5 over Vikings

RAMS -3 over Cardinals

Browns +7.5 over BENGALS

JETS -8 over Bills

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 1-2

Like season record: 2-0-1

If forced to choose season record: 4-3-1

All games season record: 7-5-2

Football picks cont'd

It's Mano a Mano y Womano! Bag has decided to join me in challenging Moon's football picks. Here are his for this week:


Really Like:
Raiders    -1.5    at        Vikings

Like:
Seahawks    +2    at        Rams
Bears        -3.5    hosting    Chargers
Giants        -4    hosting    Eagles

If force to choose:
Jets        -4.5    at        Broncos    13-17    L
Falcons    -6    hosting    Titans
Bills        +2    at        Dolphins
Bengals    +7    at        Ravens
Jaguars    -1    at        Browns
Lions        -7    hosting    Panthers
Packers    -14    hosting    Bucs
Cowboys    -8    at        Redskins
Niners    -9.5    hosting    Cardinals
Patriots    -14.5    hosting    Chiefs        

Lock:         0-0
Really Like:    5-2
Like:         5-7
Forced:    11-15
All Games:    21-24

South Pacific: Ep 10

While Ozzy didn't get sent home, all in all this was an excellent episode.  My greatest frustration with it, though, was that Albert & Co. had the perfect opportunity to take control of this game, and they didn't! I can only assume that Sophie backed out of the deal. Winning immunity seems to make people into cowards. Which makes no sense because - hey! - you're INVINCIBLE! That is the perfect time to make big moves, because if they go horribly wrong, at least you're not the one taking the brunt of the backlash.

I think that Ozzy is currently in a situation that is perfect for him. Redemption Island is what he thinks Survivor should be. You get to live in paradise in basic conditions & the only thing you have to worry about is the elimination challenges. It gets rid of the social game, which is clearly his weakest point. I think his plan is generally delusional - no one is cheering for him now, and his doing well on RI won't win him any votes. I don't think that he can win, unless he somehow finagles it that he takes Edna & Cochran to the final 3. Even then, Cochran might pull it out.

The Standings: 

Team Top 3: Moon - 98 pts
1. Ozzy (37 pts)
2. Sophie (28 pts)
[3. Jim (33 pts)]

Team Baseball, Belts & Bibles: Doug/Bri - 55 pts
1. Albert (16 pts)
2. Rick (16 pts)
3. Dawn (23 pts)

Team Dungeons & Dragons: Me - 53 pts
1. Cochran (15 pts) 
[2. Elyse (12 pts)]
3. Coach (26 pts)

Team ICRWYNISTB: Dachui - 51 pts
[1. Keith (27 pts)]
2. Brandon (16 pts)
[3. Stacey (8 pts)]

Team Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife: Bag - 45 pts
[1. Mikayla (13 pts)]

[2. Christine (18 pts)]

3. Edna (14 pts)

Team Country Bears: Courtney - 32 pts
[1. Papa Bear (7 pts)]
2. Whitney (23 pts)
[3. Semhar (2 pts)]


Power Rankings: 

1. Dungeons & Dragons - It's hard to believe that Coach has as tight a grip on this tribe as he seems to. I was really surprised that the alliance didn't crumble in this episode, and Coach's dragon-slaying neon juice must be the reason for it. As long as he remains in the game, I think I'm still the favorite to win. But I'm not really rooting for Coach, I'd rather see Cochran take it down (or other people who aren't on my team).

2. Top 3 - Moon takes a hit, but of his 3 players, Jim was the best to lose. Sophie & Ozzy are stronger mental & physical competitors than he is. Moon earned himself a nice cushion with all the points he won this episode, but did he put it out of reach? Not when everyone who makes final tribal gets at least 25 points. He needs Sophie to come up big a few more times to really be able to put this game away.

3. Baseball, Belts & Bibles - BBB takes its first hit in Episode 10, with Dawn now living on RI. I loved that Albert tried to make a move, and now I don't know if he'll get another chance. He may be able to distract Coach with other players - like Brandon - but that will only last so long. Coach isn't going to give Edna up without a fight, that's for sure, and I don't see Rick changing his non-plan anytime soon to switch to Albert's side. I've dropped BBB down to third solely because I think that Sophie is more likely to make the final three than Albert.

4. ICRWYNISTB - With Keith's departure so left the last remains of Dachui's team sanity as well. Now they're left with Brandon, who is called a "loose cannon" by people who are trying to say nice things about him. Dachui = no chance.

5. Hide Yer Kids, Hide Yer Wife - How is stupid zombie Edna is still in this game! Blast!

6. Country Bears -I have a new beef with Whitney. If you are asked a question to which you are not confident of the answer, and the question is "is a clam dangerous" you need to answer NO! She really needed to think that one through before locking in her response.

Update: The Casual Sports Fan Experiment

I’m not an obsessive football fan, but I do enjoy the sport and probably watch about 3 games a week. “Watch” is a relative term– usually I have the games on while I’m messing around on my computer, so I’m not catching every play or anything like that. I also watch SportsCenter every morning as I get ready for work, so I catch a decent number of highlights there. I’d say that I have a moderate amount of football knowledge. For example, I know that Matt Schaub is out for the rest of this year, but I have no idea what a nickelback is.

With that being said, I thought it might be interesting to see how this “moderate” football fan might fare in picking the lines on the games each week. Moon, an avid & well researched football fan, is averaging about a .500 record on his choices. My idea for this experiment emerged from the thought that maybe having too much information was actually a bad thing, so I’ve decided to see if I can do any better.

UPDATE: After talking with Bag who just so happens to be doing the same thing as me, I've adjusted the rules a little bit. See below. 

I’ve set a couple of rules for myself during this experiment:

1. I cannot do any research beyond what I normally watch to make these picks. That means I’m making my decisions largely based on the biases of ESPN analysts and what I see in games. On the plus side, I’m pretty aware of the ESPN biases, so at least I’m forearmed on that one.

2. Update - I must pick all the games that week

3.  Moon uses lines issued by 5Dimes, but so far as I can tell, you have to register with the site to see the lines. As a casual fan, that’s way too involved for me. Instead I did a Google search that yielded this website, which I will use for the basis of my picks: http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml.

4.  I’m not actually betting on these games, so don’t freak out Mom!

If all goes well and I don’t fall completely behind schedule (the most likely reason why this experiment will fail), I may try to keep this up next season, which would give me a more accurate idea of how good I am at this sort of thing. 

Here are my picks for week 11:

Really Like:

Raiders -1.5 over VIKINGS

Jets -5 over BRONCOS (sorry Tebow!)

GIANTS -4 over Eagles

Like:

BEARS -3.5 over Chargers

Seahawks +2 over RAMS

Bengals +7 over RAVENS

If Forced to Choose:

BROWNS +1 over Jaguars

49ERS -9.5 over Cardinals

Titans +6 over FALCONS

LIONS -7 over Panthers

REDSKINS +7.5 over Cowboys

Bills +2 over DOLPHINS

Chiefs +15 over PATRIOTS

PACKERS -14 over Bucs

Lock season record: 0-0

Really like season record: 0-0

Like season record: 0-0

If forced to choose season record: 0-0

All games season record: 0-0