I hope this is the last tribe shake-up before the merge. At this point I think they've done that enough that they need to move on to some other scheme to change the game on these players. Bringing Exile Island back was cool. Will they do that for a couple more episodes? What other past twists might they bring back? Maybe the "hero's stadium" or whatever it was called where there was just one player v. another in that initial challenge? Or maybe the Survivor version of Last Chance Kitchen?
I was sad to see Sandra go. She's been mixing it up this whole season and really kicking ass. I think she went to every tribal council this season so it's amazing she even made it as long as she did. And despite vastly outnumbering her, I think the alliance that brought her down treated the situation with the appropriate level of seriousness, respect, and cautiousness that it deserved. Like they said, they were attempting something that had never been achieved before
The Teams:
Michal & Ben "Try Harder" - 76 points
- Tai (35 pts)
- [Caleb (-3 pts)]
- Sarah (15 pts)
- Troyzan (16 pts)
- Brad (13 pts)
- [Malcolm (5 pts)]
- Zeke (15 pts)
- Aubry (10 pts)
- Jeff (7 pts)
- Sierra (14 pts)
MoonBee "Steel Magnolias" - 42 points
1. Try Harder: We have 4 players, 3 idols, and a 25 point lead on the next closest team. We're in about as good a position as we could possibly be. I am feeling cautiously optimistic, especially as Brad, Troyzan, and Sarah seem primed for some kind of post-merge alliance. It seems unlikely that Tai will make it to the end considering how much people distrust him. But he's amassing major points in the meantime & for all we know he'll get a stockpile of idols that will get him all the way to final 5!
2. Original Manbun: I disagree with Moon & don't think Aubry is a threat in this game at all. She's gained no traction with her tribes and will probably be a bottom dweller in any alliance she's in. Maybe this latest tribal swap will be in her favor, but somehow I doubt it. Varner is in real danger too, but Sierra & Zeke are both strong contenders, and I think both of them (but especially Sierra) could bring in decent challenge points over the course of their deep run.
3. Steel Magnolias: Most of this team is on what appears to be the dominant team in challenges. They need to have a strong run over the next couple episodes for them to get back in this game. Once we hit the merge it's going to be harder for this team to earn big points. So this is probably their best chance to earn major points. If they don't, I don't think they can win, even if a couple of their players go deep.
4. Legends of the Fall: The legend has fallen, and now this team is stuck with a nut-job stick insect and Old Ozzy. Old Ozzy is not enough. And based on the pattern of eliminating major threats, Baggadocious should be a little worried that their last remaining player may well be Debbie.
Douche of the Week:
Debbie. This crazy cougar is so delusional that she thought everything was going peachy keen just because she got some food in her belly. Though as a professional competitive eater who could challenge even the Black Widow herself, I can see why she'd be confident.
- Michaela (10 pts)
- Cirie (16 pts)
- Andrea (15 pts)
- [Ciera ( -5 pts)]
- Hali (6 pts)
- [JT (11 pts)]
- [Tony (-4]
- Ozzy (16 pts)
- [Sandra (6 pts)]
- Debbie (9 pts)
1. Try Harder: We have 4 players, 3 idols, and a 25 point lead on the next closest team. We're in about as good a position as we could possibly be. I am feeling cautiously optimistic, especially as Brad, Troyzan, and Sarah seem primed for some kind of post-merge alliance. It seems unlikely that Tai will make it to the end considering how much people distrust him. But he's amassing major points in the meantime & for all we know he'll get a stockpile of idols that will get him all the way to final 5!
2. Original Manbun: I disagree with Moon & don't think Aubry is a threat in this game at all. She's gained no traction with her tribes and will probably be a bottom dweller in any alliance she's in. Maybe this latest tribal swap will be in her favor, but somehow I doubt it. Varner is in real danger too, but Sierra & Zeke are both strong contenders, and I think both of them (but especially Sierra) could bring in decent challenge points over the course of their deep run.
3. Steel Magnolias: Most of this team is on what appears to be the dominant team in challenges. They need to have a strong run over the next couple episodes for them to get back in this game. Once we hit the merge it's going to be harder for this team to earn big points. So this is probably their best chance to earn major points. If they don't, I don't think they can win, even if a couple of their players go deep.
4. Legends of the Fall: The legend has fallen, and now this team is stuck with a nut-job stick insect and Old Ozzy. Old Ozzy is not enough. And based on the pattern of eliminating major threats, Baggadocious should be a little worried that their last remaining player may well be Debbie.
Douche of the Week:
Debbie. This crazy cougar is so delusional that she thought everything was going peachy keen just because she got some food in her belly. Though as a professional competitive eater who could challenge even the Black Widow herself, I can see why she'd be confident.
4 comments:
I think you are spot on in your player assessments. I think Sierra will go far and I agree that Aübrey hasn't gotten much going. I like your call that Debbie will outlast Ozzy. I also agree with the power rankings but I think it's really close between OMB and the Magnolias. The Magnolias are behind OMB in points but I think Varner will be voted out next episode, leaving 3 players for Doug and Bri vs 4 for MoonBee.
Why will Varner be ousted?
First, his tribe will likely lose the immunity challenge. They got crushed this week in a challenge that included swimming, physical strength, and puzzle solving. They got crushed even with Old Ozzy. They lose a weaker physical player in Sandra but they don't gain much with her replacement, Debbie.
Second, despite all the apparent drama at Tribal Council the only votes cast for Tai came from Sandra and Varner. Without knowing when the merge will be I expect those 5 who voted for Sandra to stick together. Anything could happen, as we've seen, I mean maybe Debbie just goes off the deep end and tells everyone she seduced Cochran and they vote her off for cradle robbing. Seriously though, Tai seems to have somewhat of a connection with Deb so I expect it will probably be Varner.
Third, Varner may be the WOAT ('worst of all time' for you North Carolinians) three time returning player. I made this point at our Survivor dinner (although at the time I thought he had already played three times) that he has never even made it to the Jury. He needs to go next week to solidify his already beefy claim as the WOAT three time Survivor.
I like the exile yacht! A nice change of pace but I could do without the cameo from Cochran. I like the guy but seemed like a waste of time. We only get about 38 minutes of actual show and to waste 5 minutes of time while Debbie blatantly ignored Cochran's advice seemed silly.
Debbie is the DoW but I want to give Varner an honorable mention for buying into the vote for Tai lie so complacently.
Debbie DoW.
Agree with most GraveWolf comments but I don't blame Cochran, I blame Debbie like Pickett. If it had been any other random player, his strategic discussion would have been quite entertaining. He did the best he could with Debbie, the worst-case Exile Package Grand Prize Winner. I will be curious to see if Debbie lies to her new tribe about going on it. I think I would lie, because either no one else will go, you can build camaraderie with the next Exile Winner, or you can maintain the lie if they reveal it.
I didn't think the tribe that won this immunity was stronger for challenges until the challenge happened. Ozzy will be a bigger factor if he doesn't go home soon.
Sandra was the latest in the trend of powerful, aggressive players getting ousted. The next to fit the profile might be Ozzy or Zeke. But I think that trend has run its course and now it will come down to subtle alliances and power struggles. Tai is in a good spot with two idols if he can keep them to himself. It was clear that paranoia chatter and Ozzy whispers was designed to fortify the lie they were serving to Sandra and Varner. Tai was never in danger or he would have played one of his two idols.
Try Harder is in a dominant position. I think Troyzan may persist for a while, especially if he uses his idol appropriately.
I'll go with Varner for DoW. I was sad to see Sandra go, she's such a pro at Survivor.
I haven't watched the latest episode, so my comments are are still fresh off this episode. Sorry for the late response.
I definitely liked the exile twist of comfort and food. Debbie gets my DoW vote this week mainly because she originally said that "no one had any issues with her" when Cochran first asked who might be gunning for her. That made no sense and I'm glad Cochran was able to get her back to reality... a little.
I don't think Varner is in as bad shape as Ben does. I guess we'll find out soon enough. I'm also not sure how strong Aubry really is. I keep waiting for her to lock up something solid, and every week there she is just sitting there.
Sandra played a good game and made it farther than I thought. That tribal had me hoping that the tribe would force Tai to play an idol, but they obviously added in some acting to make it seem like a Tai vote possibility. It was even more evident that they were acting and Tai was in on it when he didn't play either of his idols, like a boss. Now Man Bun needs to hope he uses one or both of those incorrectly and throws some negative points towards Try harder. Tai is a bit of a wild card with those damn things.
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