Sunday, March 26, 2017

Game Changers: Episode 3

So the one thing that's clear after the last 2 episodes is that there is going to have to be a significant point lead by one of the teams before we can make any confident claims in the power rankings. This season is totally living up to the reputation of its cast. There are moves, then counter-moves, and then counter-counter-moves. People are playing for the long game & the obvious threats are going down quickly.

The Teams:

Michal & Ben "Try Harder" - 47 points
  1. Tai (22 pts)
  2. [Caleb (-3 pts)]
  3. Sarah (11 pts)
  4. Troyzan (10 pts)
  5. Brad (7 pts)
Doug & Bri "Original Manbun" - 36 points
  1. [Malcolm (5 pts)]
  2. Zeke (11 pts)
  3. Aubrey (6 pts)
  4. Jeff (6 pts)
  5. Sierra (8 pts)
Baggadocious "Legends of the Fall" - 32 points
  1. JT (13 pts)
  2. [Tony (-4]
  3. Ozzy (12 pts)
  4. Sandra (5 pts)
  5. Debbie (6 pts)

MoonBee "Steel Magnolias" - 22 points
  1. Michaela (6 pts)
  2. Cirie (10 pts)
  3. Andrea (11 pts)
  4. [Ciera ( -5 pts)]
  5. Hali (0 pts)
Power Rankings:

1. Try Harder: Tai proved his high draft selection was merited with his 11th hour idol find. Well played by him to share his find with his alliance. This crafty gardener should also do well in individual challenges, should he make the merge… and in this season nothing is guaranteed. Our top prospect at this point is looking like Brad Culpepper. He’s lost the testosterone & ego replaced them with a keen eye for outdoor decorating & a strong social game.

2. Original Manbun: Devastation! The team namesake is gone, and with his exit they’ve also lost their primary point earner. There are still some major players on this team, though, and they are down but not out. Sierra is the most impressive of the “barely remembers” who returned this season, and likely to pick up points on the way.

3.Legends of the Fall: JT is now 2 for 3 in making giant blunders on Survivor. More & more it’s becoming clear that the season he won was due primarily to his alliance with Stephen. It’s unlikely he’ll make it far. I wouldn’t be surprised if his team loses the next player – though I think it’s more likely to be Sandra than JT. Maybe that tribe will lose on purpose with the intention of taking out JT, but will turn on Sandra instead.

4.Steel Magnolias: This is the only team that’s out of the running early. How is it possible that Hali hasn’t earned any points!?! Michaela is great, but is just out of her element in a game this fast-paced. Cirie is their best bet to go far, but won’t earn major points along the way. And Andrea won’t do well as she’s too obviously fake – even Troyzan caught on!


Douche of the Week:
JT for sure.

10 comments:

TheGraveWolf said...

Wow. That was the craziest tribal council I can remember. Great twist from the producers to keep things interesting. The tribal councils right after the merge are similarly raucous and uncoordinated and I was enthralled.

JT bungled it. Gave up the plans to the death star and they blew up his homey.

Tai did exactly what we hoped he would when we drafted him #3. The man finds idols. And it paid off big time. Tai has as many points as the Magnolias combined. Steel Tai'd boots trampling those flowers.

I think if JT's tribe loses he's done. No way Sandra goes home before him if it happens next episode.

Reward challenge should have been 1 man and 1 woman.

Poor Malcolm was devastated after getting voted out. That was a rough way to go.

People I think are going far based on the edit/screen time:
Brad
Aubrey

People not going far:
JT
Sandra

Everyone else is still up in the air I think.

Sandra for DoW.

GnightMoon said...

We thought it was a lousy twist with a lousy ending. I don't think they'll try that one again. That was a brutal, pointless exit. JT DoW.

I know you guys are happy Tai played the idol "successfully" garnering big slash & burn points but I thought that was a dumb move. Much better to pocket it for a rainy day than blow it trying to gain favor with a new tribe of seasoned veterans unlikely to last more than a few days. Good pun by the GraveWolf tho.

I think Poor Malcolm will get one more shot, perhaps in a "captain" role where they have two or three returning players. I disagree with the Screentime Theory but I do agree with GraveWolf's analysis. JT & Sandra are in trouble. I thought it would be Sandra this time based on the edit. If I had to choose one player right now to win it all, I would choose Aubry. And yes, it's Aubry with no e.

Unknown said...

Good call on the spelling, Moon! And I am with you on the use of the idol, also. Haven't we seen in many seasons past that when someone uses the idol to help the whole group they just turn around and vote the sucker out? This season really feels like every person for themselves! Who knows if that tribe will even be together in a few days? I thought he should've held on to it for himself, but he'll probably go out and find another one.

I have worried that I've been prejudiced against JT because I've thought he was dumb, and wondered if that's because of his southern accent and stupid hair. But after this last episode, I think it's okay for me to decide he's stupid. He's my vote for DOW too.

TheGraveWolf said...

Why do you think they'll shelve the two tribes to tribal twist? Too volatile? From a casual fan/ratings perspective I think last week's episode was exciting. I would guess the buzz on social media was mostly positive.

The tribe of 6 was overconfident. They said they thought everything through but I don't believe they thought enough about the idol. Sandra shouted down one of her tribemates, maybe Aubreeye, when the possibility of an idol was mentioned. Seems like the safest play was to vote for Hali. She was on the outside of the other tribe and it's doubtful they would play an idol to save her.

What was the part about Hali saying she hadn't consented to vote? Does everyone have to 'lock in'? Definitely hadn't seen that before.

I think Tai's sharing of the idol really helped cement those four together...and maybe Hali too? Couldn't tell if she was faking going back to the other tribe or if it was real. Ultimately, she did vote for Malcolm. Also, Tai might have been the one targeted and this way there is no resentment if he plays the idol for himself. Anyway, we will have to wait and see but I think it was a better use than Moon and Margot think.

Point adjustment needed for Sierra who should have received +2 for finding the legacy idol.

Michal Greenberg said...

Points were adjusted in the blog post for Sierra's legacy idol. Just updated the spreadsheet as well.

I'm surprised there's even a debate about Tai's idol play. It's clear that he needs to prove himself to be committed to his new alliance - he already felt compelled to vote out Caleb which is a way bigger deal than sharing an idol. Especially for someone who's so talented at finding idols. His name has come up often as being a target so he really needs to solidify this alliance he has. And it seems like they are truly 4 strong now, having been together for these first 10 days or so. Tai needs people to have his back, which means he needs to prove he has theirs. He's now done that in spades.

Doug said...

Jeff! You and your damn twists!

Malcolm got the shaft and now the pool gets interesting again. Having our #1 pick voted out in that craziness was brutal, for us and Malcolm. The man bun will continue in spirit, though!

JT will be the other big loser here. He was trying to play both sides and lost on both. His one play left will be to to try to convince the tribe that Sandra is more dangerous than he, but it is a feeble argument at this point - He's also won the whole thing, and he's proven to be a traitor. JT also gets my DoW vote this week.

Brad is looking very in control, with a strong alliance. JT and Malcolm should have voted Sandra, with JT whispering her name in Brad's ear. What would they have really gained by voting out Sierra? They lost out on a great opportunity.

I think Tai should have thought a little harder about keeping the idol for himself. He offered it up pretty damn early after finding it. At least that's what it looked like. He's in a good spot because of the result of tribal, but if he had played it wrong, we would have been kicking himself. Sierra got very luck.

Can't wait for the fallout in the next episode.

Mark Pickett said...

I think they may well do the joint tribal council the rest of the way. It added a whole level of new life to the show. After last week, going back to a regular council would be kind of boring!

GnightMoon said...

Hard to say how Tai's idol play will shake out. Personally I think it's usually a mistake to play it for anyone else and I believe history shows that.

My problem with the dual tribal council is that it goes against the core concept of the game: voting out people within your own group without antagonizing them so much that they don't vote for you to win at the end.

TheGraveWolf said...

Yeah, I agree that in general it's unwise to a)play your idol early and b) for someone else.

Seems a bit dramatic to say dual tribal goes against the core concept. I mean, these tribes were only formed a few days ago. Plenty of folks to antagonize. Alliances to betray. Options to weigh.

Bag said...

Sorry we are just catching up to live. JTDOW.