The first tribal council went almost exactly as Ben predicted. They went into it with Spencer having immunity, Kimmi planning on voting with Keith & Wentworth, while believing she had her former alliance convinced to split votes. In the end he cover got blown, Wentworth & Jeremy both played idols, and "for the first time in Survivor history" none of the votes that were cast counted! In the re-vote there was a 3-3 split for Tasha v. Kimmi. And at that point Keith should have realized that he needed to switch votes, but... well, it's Keith, so of course he didn't. In the end, Kimmi ended up going home, it just took a little longer than it should have.
This was a super interesting scenario, though it kind of felt like Probst was making the rules up as he went. In the end, the repercussions of Jeremy & Spencer's behavior in this & the 2nd-to-last tribal council may have played some small role in how the jury votes fell, but I doubt that it changed who won.
Congrats to Jeremy & the Ghost Coaster for picking the winner. But bigger congrats to the Contrarian Ninja Stack! This solid team not only dominated this season, we also set the new points record. (And I can't help but imagine the 300+ score we would have had if the women had gone with the all-female alliance.)
Speaking of all-women's alliances, I want to re-examine this some more. At first I thought it was weird that all women's alliances are suggested (or attempted) in probably over half of Survivor's seasons. Monica was the first one to suggest it this season, and then Kimmi made a valiant effort of making it happen late in the game. But why is this so appealing? And why don't men go with an "all men's alliance" as much as women do? I think that the explanation was sitting right in front of us at final tribal. While most of the jury started their questioning with "I don't know who I'm voting for, by vote is up for grabs" it clearly wasn't. Because they then proceeded to ignore Tasha throughout, or when they addressed her asked questions like "why were you Jeremy's lackey?"
Tasha got no credit for playing an absolutely stellar game. (She also did a crap job of proving it in final tribal, but that's a different subject.) She started out in a solid alliance, then found herself at the bottom of the totem pole during the first tribal switcheroo when she ended up with Jeff, Savage, Peih Gee, Abi & Woo on the world's worst tribe. She not only turned things around for herself there, but she was actually one of the few people who was able to keep Abi in line. When the tribes were remixed & then merged, she quietly slid back into her original alliance & took on a leadership role. It was clear that keeping in her good graces was extremely important, if you pay attention to how folks like Stephen & Spencer acted around her.
And yet, Jeremy is given all the credit for being the leader of his alliance, and Tasha is seen largely as a coattail rider by the end of the season. In my opinion, the problem comes down to gender bias. Most women on Survivor play a subtler social game than the men do. And while that can be extremely useful in keeping a target off their back during the show, it also means they're given little strategic credit at the end compared to the alpha male they inevitably wind up with at final tribal. Had Tasha gone to final tribal with Kimmi and Abi, SHE would have been the one getting all the strategic credit, there'd have been no competition. Why she didn't go that route, I'm not sure. But at the very least she should have seriously considered it & what going up against the likes of Jeremy & Spencer would have meant for her.
This doesn't apply to all women. There have been plenty of strong women who have won Survivor - Parvati, Amber, Natalie the twinsie, Sophie, Sandra x 2, etc. But women who played more subtle social games like Julie from Yul's season, and Tasha from this season, are the ones who get screwed in these scenarios.
On the other hand, it would have been interesting for Probst to have taken a poll at the reunion to see how the votes would have fallen if he's taken Wentworth instead of Spencer to the finals. Would it have cost him a million dollars? He certainly would have lost Ciera & Abi's votes, but I'm not sure who else. I guess Spencer, but that might have just been an idle threat he made during that tribal council.
Overall this was an extremely exciting & fun season. One of the best in my book. Almost every episode was full of surprises. And not just for the castaways, but for the audience as well. I have no doubt next season will feel like a disappointment, even if it's a solid season. Newbies just aren't as good at the game as the pros we had on this & other returning castaway seasons.
The Score:
Michal & Ben - Contrarian Ninja Stack: 228 points
- Tasha (44 pts)
- Kelley (79 pts)
- Stephen (36 pts)
- Kimmi (38 pts)
- Kass (31 pts)
- Jeremy (124 pts)
- Jeff (0 pts)
- Monica (12 pts)
- Kelly (20 pts)
- Abi-Maria (31 pts)
- Spencer (50 pts)
- Joe (69 pts)
- Shirin (-4 pts)
- Terry (9 pts)
- Ciera (36 pts)
- Vytas (-5 pts)
- Woo (8 pts)
- Keith (54 pts)
- Savage (29 pts)
- Peih Gee (-3 pts)
Prop Bets:
Now that everything is set & done, let's recap the prop bets that were made a draft dinner. Moon came out as the clear loser after betting it all on Vytas. Ben did very well for himself & Bag ended up with the best record of 1-0. Props to Doug for winning the bets most akin to "the most interesting man in the world."
| People involved | Castaways Involved | Method of measurement | Stakes | And the winner is... |
| Moon v. Ben | Vytas v. Kass | More points | 1 drink | Ben |
| Moon v. Ben | Vytas v. Kimmi | More points | dinner | Ben |
| Moon v. Ben | Vytas v. Stephen | More points | $20 | Ben |
| Moon v. Ben | Vytas v. Tasha | More points | 3% of next poker tourney | Ben |
| Moon v. Ben | Vytas v. Kelley | More points | $50 or less bottle | Ben |
| Doug v. Ben | Shirin v. Tasha | More points | 6 pack of beer | Ben |
| Doug v. Ben | Shirin v. Tasha | Longevity | 6 pack of beer | Ben |
| Doug v. Bag | Abi-Maria | 0 and more points = Bag | 1 drink | Bag |
| Negative points = Doug | 2 drinks | |||
| Doug v. Ben | Terry v. Savage | $15 bottle of wine | Longevity | Ben |
| Doug v. Melissa | Ciera v. Peih Gee | "After-dinner beverage" | Longevity | Doug |
| Doug v. Ben | Ciera v. Peih Gee | "After-dinner beverage" | Longevity | Doug |
Power Rankings:
1. Contrarian Ninja Stack - This team was built on the assumption that obviously physical & strategic threats like Jeremy, Spencer, and Joe would be seen as big targets & get eliminated early in the game. That proved not to be true, but the foundation on which this team was based was still rock solid. I'm not sure how often an entire team has made the jury before, but it can't be more than 1-2 times tops. This was a group of solidly social & strategic players who flew under the radar on challenges, but still managed to rake in major points along the way. They were led by Wentworth, who was only outscored by Jeremy's clean sweep of the votes.
2. Ghost Coaster - On the opposite extreme, Bagdrea's team picked the winner of the season, but had such a lackluster back-up crew that they honestly got a little lucky that they even managed to come in 2nd. While I can't blame them for drafting Jeff (and Abi wasn't actually a choice, they got stuck with her), I think that they were the only people at the draft who thought there was any value in Kelly or Monica. Stronger 3rd & 4th round picks really could have swung it for this team.
3. Survivor MacGyver - Doug & Bri's team was really quite impressive. Considering how long Spencer & Joe lasted in the game, looking back now it's hard to believe that they didn't win. But Terry's family crisis & Shirin's social ineptitude cost them in the end.
4. Woofully Inadequate - And then we have this season's trophy makers. The overall #1 pick of Vytas was questioned from the start (mostly by Ben), and was quickly followed by a couple of picks of known strategically incompetent players. Picking either Woo or Keith (and especially Keith!) is fine. But you just can't have them both on your team. It's tough though, because they drafted first, and then didn't get to pick again until the end of the 2nd round, at which point most of the rock stars have been taken. This may have been the worst season to get the #1 overall pick actually.
Douche of the Week:
Unsurprisingly, Abi-Maria took this one home. Overall this was a non-douchey season with the exception of Abi & sometimes Kass. If the next season is equally non-douchey I'm not sure this rule is worth keeping around.
6 comments:
Well written, Michal! Thanks again for another lovely season of commentary. Can't wait for the next one already!
Jeremy was a deserving winner and was well rewarded by the points system our pool has in place. As we have discussed in the past, it should be a big benefit to have the winner on your team. Luckily for CNS, Ghost Coaster spent most of their auction money on Jeremy and then purchased pond water for the remainder of their team.
I felt good going into the final episode with half the remaining contestants but we barely managed to squeak one into Final Tribal. I was surprised Tasha went with Spencer/Jeremy over potentially Abi/Kimmi (women's alliance). Byead Judgement! I, too, am curious how many votes Wentworth would have received if she made it instead of Tasha.
An entertaining season overall. I thought there were too many swaps and a couple of surprising blunders from what should have been a savvy returning cast.
I think picking first this season could have paid off huge... Jeremy scored 124 points! In fact, most of the top picks from the first and second round did very well.
It looks like next season has a ton of injuries and possible medevacs so we will want to make sure we are clear on rules for those situations at the next dinner. Sounds like it will air in February of 2016. I hope you enjoy your after dinner drinks Douglito.
I want to make sure to recognize what a great player Jeremy is. He beasted his first season but caught a bad break and was offed mob-style (Jon being the Godfather in this case) like a star witness before the trial. His second season was a masterpiece start to finish. I wasn't a big fan of using an idol to save Scheming Steven, but he had one to spare. He quietly made bonds with just about every castaway and made the tightest bonds with strong players who stuck with him in crunch time.
I agree that Tasha played a stellar game, but don't that she got no credit. We don't really know how much credit she got, just that it wasn't as much as Jeremy. Remember that Spencer wasn't voted for either. This vote was about Jeremy, not a slight on Tasha or Spencer. He played a masterful game and put it away at Final Tribal when he brought up Val, their daughters and their unborn son. I truly believe Jeremy is on the Survivor Mount Rushmore and possibly even the GOAT. I am sick that we picked Vytas over him and Joe.
Moon & Ben make good points: Jeremy was absolutely a deserving winner which I didn't really focus on in my post at all. I was too riled up about Tasha! I disagree about GOAT... and I also hate myself a little for deigning to use that stupid acronym. Until someone else wins, comes in 2nd, & finds a way to talk someone into giving away their immunity necklace, Parvati will remain my #1 player. Still, he crushed it start to finish.
Well written final post and good game to all. Congrats to CNS and Jeremy. Jeremy did play a great game. Too bad Zack and Andrea have no idea since they stopped watching after the third episode. I vote they can't collect on their side bets until they catch up. If next season airs before that, all bets they won are void.
Add that to the rule change list for next season too.
CNS drafted a savvy bunch of betas that got them the win. Nice work and strategy from the jump.
Should we add penalties to pool teams that don't complete their trophy adjustments before the next season? (Cough, cough, Bagdrea, cough) We are waiting on them, then us, then Tom and Melissa at this point.
Yes! This season would not have been complete without Moon's traditional hyperbolic proclamation. Recency bias, Luna, recency bias.
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