Lesson #1 from this episode: even the tiniest mistake can send you home. Shirin's mistake was not tiny, but it seems like even a slight snub would have shaken things up anyway. Lesson #2: being on the bottom today doesn't mean you're going home tomorrow. That's what makes these all-star seasons great. The truly great players should be able to come back from even the direst situations. They just need to wait for the opportune moment.
The Teams:
Last chance to come up with your own name!!
Michal & Ben - "The glass ceiling": 45 points
- Tasha (10 pts)
- Kelley (5 pts)
- Stephen (10 pts)
- Kimmi (10 pts)
- Kass (10 pts)
Bagdrea - "Bagdrea is not going to win": 20 points
- Jeremy (10 pts)
- Jeff (0 pts)
- Monica (10 pts)
- Kelly (0 pts)
- Abi-Maria (0 pts)
Doug & Bri - "After-dinner beverage": 15 points
- Spencer (0 pts)
- Joe (10 pts)
- [Shirin (-4 pts)]
- Terry (0 pts)
- Ciera (9 pts)
MoonBee - "Sans smarmy lech": 15 points
- [Vytas (-5 pts)]
- Woo (0 pts)
- Keith (5 pts)
- Savage (5 pts)
- Peih Gee (0 pts)
Power Rankings:
1. "The glass ceiling": Our ladies continue to play a solid game. Turns out Kimmi's pretty good at puzzles, Kass is good at showing restraint, and Kelley is well prepared to adjust to the changing flow of the game. Stephen continues to anti-impress, but I think this upcoming tribal mix-up could be a life saver for him. Hopefully he gets as far away from Savage as possible, that guy really seems to be gunning for him. Fingers crossed he also finds an idol clue soon too, I don't think anyone needs it as much as him!
2."Sans smarmy lech": Does anyone else dislike Savage? I don't know what it is about that guy, but I just cannot get on board. Sweet story about your wife, I guess, but it wasn't tugging at my heart strings. It felt more like a Nicholas Sparks book, and that is no compliment. I loved Woo in this episode though. He may be the dumbest guy out there, but he wasn't afraid to speak his mind & I really appreciated that. Keith didn't get much air time, but he was part of a crate-hauling group that kicked some ass. That old man is a physical threat & no one should forget it!! Peih Gee has found herself mired down in some drama, but hopefully this tribal mix-up will improve her situation. If she has the chance to lay low for a little while I think that'd be in her favor.
3. "After-dinner beverage": Doug & Bri were dealt a big blow this episode, but I also think they dodged a bullet. Spencer seems more capable of bouncing back from this kind of set-back than Shirin, so this was a lesser of two evils situation for them. So far, though, the Glass Ceiling seems to be spot-on in their pre-draft assessment that the strong, strategic guys would be early targets. With Spencer & Joe on this roster, they aren't out of the woods yet!
4. "Bagdrea is not going to win": I feel like no one else thinks this is the worst team anymore, but I still do & am going into detail to explain why. First, Jeff is definitely playing his ass off right now. I thought he was going to burn out after last episode, but instead I think he's actually just going to go insane & then scheme himself right off the show. And I am extremely annoyed at his "I just voted with New School to teach Old School a lesson." If there's any lesson to be learned from that, it's that both Old & New Schools should vote Jeff out! Betraying your would-be alliance by voting out said alliance should not be considered good game play. Second, Jeremy is riding an emotional roller coaster. Abi-Maria is its conductor, and neither of them are prepared to play a strong mental game. Missing your pregnant wife? That's sweet but too bad! You need to focus your energy on the game, not on what you're missing at home. Which leaves us with Monica & Kelly. Monica gets no air time, and Kelly's air time is still pretty much her trying hard & failing to get anywhere. Some of these folks may end up sticking around for a while, but I don't see any of them bringing in major points & definitely don't think any of them can win.
Douche of the Week:
Jeff for the douchey audacity to try and teach anyone a lesson.
11 comments:
Your team has scored a ton of points! What a huge lead this early in the game!
I wouldn't read into Jeremy's emotions. That little segment could be a
1) a non-story
2) the first segment of a "Jeremy playing for his family" narrative we'll see throughout the season
3) hinting at a Jeremy/Savage alliance
4) a segue for Savage's confessional on wanting Stephen out
During Jeremy's season he was sad and vengeful when his wife was voted out, but he didn't let that affect his play. His play was very focused and I expect it will be again this year.
I think Savage's story was edited and was more than thirty seconds as it was on the show.
If you watch carefully, it's actually Jeff that's calling the shots. Players he says he wants out have gone out so far. I agree that he might overmanage and wind up offing himself, but I also could see him going the distance. He already has his endgame plan with Abi-Maria. But if Abi goes off the deep end, Jeff can adjust to some sort of old-school alliance with players like Kimmi, Kelly and Kass.
Speaking of Kass, I have been pleasantly surprised by her attitude in this game. She appears to have turned a huge corner, in terms of likability = and by association, chances of winning. Like previous champs Rob, Tyson and Cochran, Kass is a smart player who seems to have identified and repaired her one major weakness in the "offseason" and returned a greatly improved player.
DoW should be peigh GI, abi and shirin for that silly girl fight and the way it all went down. I know abi is super annoying but as was shirin in her season. I also didn't like how peigh gi went back to the shelter and everyone laughed behind her back. Everyone laughed but then a bunch of people turned back around and said how much they enjoy having her around and how they're going to vote with her now. Granted I was doped up on morphine while watching this episode so it might not have gone down exactly like that. Sorry, poor analysis.
Ummm, morphine? Did that make the show more or less entertaining?
Forgot to mention that a Doug/Ben prop bet has also been settled: Tasha has outlasted Shirin. Other prop bets are based on total points won, so while it's likely that the glass ceiling will unanimously outscore Vytas & that Tasha will outscore Shirin, that's not 100% determined, so we can't officially declare winners for those yet :)
I agree that Jeff is currently calling the shots - which, on a tribe in shambles, isn't really something to brag about. If he was successfully running the show they wouldn't be so dysfunctional. Thus my DOW vote.
Moon, I also think you are writing off Jeremy's emotional states as one-offs when really they are par for the course. Jeremy cried on the first episode of his 1st season when he sent his wife to Exile Island. He cried on the 2nd episode of this season. Yes, he got vengeful in his first season, again indicating a highly emotional man. You can disregard all of this as exceptions when it really seems like it's the rule.
*can't, not "can" in my last sentence.
I need help from y'all in understanding "new school" and "old school." I thought Old School was keeping players who could help you win immunity until the merge and New School was getting rid of threats asap no matter what it meant to the strength of your tribe. But from what Spencer said it sounds like Old School is about making meaningful relationships and not thinking so much about alliances/strategy. I like MY definition of Old School and would subscribe to it if I were playing. But Spencer's def is kinda ridiculous even for this person who works hard on relationship-building as part of my profession (and personality)!
And Michal--please change my email address on your listserve. I have to take about 4 steps to get to the old email address you're using for this. Mwah!
Send me an email to your new address please & I should be able to take care of this. Quite frankly I don't know what your email is anymore, you've changed it too many times!!
First I must say that I'm impressed, Michal, that you wrote this with the trip to DC and all. Good for you!
Second, I found it a little strange that Shirrin came off as the "bad guy" in the fight on the beach when the primary confrontation was between Abi and Peih Geh. I know that the vote against S. was because she didn't come over to comfort Abi afterwards (among other things), but neither did PG. And Abi really was the root cause of all the drama to begin with but she was able to just skate through it all in the end. Don't know how much longer that will last.
Also, I agree with Jeff as DOW. That guy is just too full of himself and I think Michal is right that he is digging his own grave as a result. But we shall see how this tribal shift changes all the social dynamics.
Since Bagdrea is (or should that be "are"?) on a road trip right now, they might not have a lot of energy to devote to a new team name. And Bagdrea is not going to win, seems a little clunky. Could it be shortened to Bingtwin? Just a thought.
All you CO folks, enjoy your dry weather while those of in the east get out our fins and snorkles!
I was shocked that the T Keo new school alliance would sit in the shelter and openly laugh about a member of their alliance, especially when that member is Abi-Maria. They dug their own grave on that one.
We do have a nice early lead but I think we'll need it once we hit the merge. I think our team may be the weakest in terms of individual immunity threats. It's hard to say much about some of the Bayon members because they've won the first two challenges but I do feel good about our top picks Kelley and Tasha. I'm hoping this tribe swap saves Stephen. Kimmi is still a wildcard and Kass was a great dreg pick up. Kudos to Moon for his comments on Kass.
I like Bag's top picks. Jeff is playing a strong game and I can tell he has an extremely tricky and savvy social game. Jeremy is strong and motivated. Jeff was/is in such a strong position that this swap hurts him the most but with his social game he should be able to adapt. I think the bottom half of that team (Monica, Kelly, Abi) is probably the weakest of the teams.
Team Lechless is the opposite with the best bottom half of the draft (Keith, Savage, Peih Gee) but the weakest top half.
I can't see Doug's top dogs both surviving deep into the game. If they do we could be in big trouble. I'm not worried about Ciera as she's basically been a ghost.
Shirin gets my vote for DoW. Probst pointed out how similar it was to what happened to her last season and I think he summed it up nicely.
Oh, I also wanted to mentioned another option for the Jeremy emotion segment. What if he and Stephen end up on the same tribe again when they switch and it comes into play somehow?
Anyone have any thoughts on why they showed Woo getting asked for his vote by Spencer and Shirin? Was it just to demonstrate that those two had been playing the game so hard that it was the first time they had even talked to Woo or is there something I'm missing?
We did take a hit with losing Shirin, but as Michal mentioned, we would have rather it been her over Spencer. I think Spencer can recover, especially with a tribe switch up. The problem is that the crosshairs will fall back on Joe and Spencer as strong individual players once there is a full tribe merge. They need to get in some solid alliances ASAP.
Shirin did shoot herself in the foot and I vote for her as DoW for the same reason as Ben. She didn't adapt and thought that she had everything figured out, even when she was way off. Again.
Abi is going to blow something up again, but who will be the victim? Or will they be able to get her out with the tribe switch. These players are all vets and I bet almost everyone one of them would love to stand next to her at the end. It's an easy win. I hope that Abi's annoying tendencies overpower that and they vote her out for a better day to day experience. I don't want to watch Abi the whole season, plus I have a bet to win.
We would like our team name to be "Survivor MacGyver". We were going to go with "Team Joe-ga" but that is too dependant on just one of our players. Even though the term was applied to Joe after he whipped up some awesome camp hammocks, among other things, we think it also applies to Spencer and his ability to survive disastrous situations. We are hoping Ciera and Terry are able to pull out some MacGyver-esque moves down the stretch.
Woo! Good job making a stand. Straight up denied a vote swap. There may be hope yet.
I think they showed the Wood Spenc/Shirin segment to show a) how desperate their situation really was, and b) that they really weren't playing a good strategic game. If they were REALLY playing a good strategic game they would have developed a relationship with him so that they would have options in situations where they found themselves with their backs against the wall.
If anyone really wants to take Abi all the way to the finals they are going to have their hands full. They'll need to play it a la Boston Rob with Phillip Jessum Herring. Constant checking in, ego stroking, emotional support, etc. I'm with Doug on not wanting to watch her all season, so I'm hoping no one will be up for that & they'll just get rid of her because she's such a risk to take along. Seriously, she'll turn on you quick! (Not that it wasn't deserved this first time, I just see it easily happening again.)
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