I predict that next, the merged tribe will lose another flint, or maybe a machete, or some of the fishing gear. I suspect that Jeff's bartering days are over - except for a Survivor Auction that I hope still happens!
All things considered, losing their comfort seemed like a small price to pay for getting a whole bag of rice. However, my new favorite Survivor op ed writer (http://tvrecaps.ew.com/recap/survivor-san-juan-del-sur-episode-6/) points out that with an impending merge there's really only so much the producers could do to punish this tribe without getting ridiculous. And if Julie ends up quitting because of the lost tarp then I will have to call it just.
The Teams:
Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 33 points
- Josh (9 pts)
- Jeremy (10 pts)
- Missy (6 pts)
- Keith (8 pts)
- Reed (13 pts)
- Natalie (12 pts)
- Rocker (-6 pts)
- Julie (9 pts)
- Alec (9 pts)
- Drew (2 pts)
- Wes (10 pts)
- Val (-6 pts)
- Baylor (2 pts)
- Jon (5 pts)
- Kelley (1 pt)
- Dale (-1 pt)
Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points
Power Rankings:
1. The Misfits -I think this episode soundly proved that Keith is NOT a favorite to win this game. The man had absolutely no idea what was going on in his tribe during the vote & that doesn't bode well considering that his only plan once they make the merge is to join up with his son. Care to bring an alliance along with you, Keith? How about some inside info into the ongoings of your current tribe? No? Too busy napping, I suppose. Jeremy on the other hand got through what will probably be the riskiest time for him in the game -- probably until there are 6 players left. Missy is getting more annoying, but she's laid the all-important social game groundwork to get Natalie to essentially publicly jump ship from her tribe. They are looking really solid.
2. Daddy Issues - Daddy Issues reminds me of the Black Knight from Monty Python.They've had a couple of limbs removed, sure... but it might just be a flesh wound. The real talent & hope for this team is still there, and better yet, they're in an alliance with each other. If the Baylor/Missy/Jon/Jaclyn alliance teams up with Jeremy & Natalie, they'll be in great shape against a Josh/Reed/Alec/Wes alliance. Julie & Keith are unknowns but I'd guess that Keith will join up with his son on the losing side & Julie will stick with Jeremy unless/until she quits. And any alliance that's relying on Wes, Alec & Keith to be well-informed & have a clear idea of what the strategy is doesn't really have a chance.
3. Queers & Foreigners - Reed finally got some air time! Granted, he was one of two players in a challenge, so it's hard for him to NOT get air time. And while his Spiderman skills were impressive, even more impressive was Natalie's game play. As with everything she does, it's a little too... loud... for my tastes. Still, she's making moves & there aren't that many contestants on this season who are perceptive enough to understand what she's doing. Julie is currently the odds-on favorite to be the quitter, though, so this team is still ranked 3rd in my book.
4. The Buffoons -It's weird to see the Buffoons currently sitting in 3rd place in the point rankings, but I'm not fooled! The Buffoons are aptly named & disinclined to come up with their own ideas or strategy. With a merge on the horizon they need to be prepared to make moves, understand alliances, etc. I don't think they get any of that. Actually I think that Alec would leave the show happily at any time now that he's outlasted his brother.
Douche of the Week:
If my favorite op ed writer could vote I'm guessing he'd vote Reed for trying to spin sending Julie to exile as a compliment rather than a punishment. Certainly a valid argument! Jeremy is also a strong candidate for griping about his tribe giving up comfort items for food. (Thank goodness he kept his opinions to himself & the camera!) However, I'm going to vote for Jon for believing that Dale's fake idol was real. Thank you, Jaclyn, for pointing out that it could be fake, but Jon immediately disregarded this notion. I sense a chauvinistic streak in him, but maybe I'm overthinking it and he's only just dumb.
10 comments:
I agree about the rice. Comfort items just didn't seem to add up to a full bag of rice. Maybe a half bag, but not a full one. But, with the merge on the immediate horizon, it really doesn't matter. For DoW, my vote goes to Rocker. I know he's been gone for several weeks now, but he was such an asshole i think he still deserves votes!
I think Jon is a quintessential Dumb Jock, but usually that includes at least a pinch of male chauvinism!
I think Michal's favorite blogger is too hard on Keith...but hilarious while he's dissing him. Who knows, maybe Keith feels like he's been told enough about the upcoming council that the best thing he can do is get out of the picture and catch some ZZZs. I hope he stays for a while, just because I'm fond of old country boys.
I am really curious about how the alliances will line up once the merge happens! Do you think the Baylor/Josh alliance still exists? Because if so, then Baylor and Missy are allied with almost everyone!
Like Michal, I was relieved that Jeremy found a way to vent his anger/displeasure to the cameras without alienating anyone on his tribe. It's nice for someone like him to have that outlet.
Have you seen the 1 minute "out take" of Alec that was posted under the article from EW? If so, you, like me would vote for him as DoW.
I thought having to give up the comfort items was a weak punishment for a bag of rice but my disappointment was slightly assuaged by the downpour that followed.
I'm with Mark and didn't think anyone was all that douchey this week. I'm gonna throw my DoW vote to The Buffoons. We are now at the merge and have yet to see a comment from either of these social network butterflies.
The player breakdown for the new outlast scoring worked out really well. Dale received a -1 and everyone on the jury will be in the positive.
Wolfy's Power Rankings
The Misfits
I agree that Keith is not and will not be leading any kind of strategic alliance. If Jeremy and Natalie team with the JJ/MB foursome that would be devastating to Q&F and The Buffoons.
Moon and I had a conversation on Thursday and he seemed to think the power may shift to Keith/Wes/Josh/Reed/Alec alliance. So I'd be interested to hear his comments on that.
Man, it's tough to pick second place right now.
I think Daddy Issues has the stronger players but Q&F has a pretty sizable points lead over them. That lead could shrink significantly if Julie is the quitter.
The 30 second preview for next week on the CBS Website(http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/8168A82B-0E36-54C8-9C8C-7314ADBDFD88/survivor-million-dollar-decision-preview-/) shows Julie involved in some kind of scandal. It looks like she may have hidden some food in her bag. If the weather stays cold and she feels like a social outcast she seems the likely quitter.
I'm going with my gut here and keeping DI in 2nd place.
QF
The Buffoons
Q&F have a significant point lead, it's true. But if Julie is the quitter she gets -10 for quitting & she won't get jury points so it's a 20+ point swing. It'll be devastating for whatever team the quitter ends up being on!
I know there's no way to do it fairly but I was disappointed that there is no way to make the old Hanaphu tribe pay for their gluttony. After all, the new folks just walked into a shitty situation. But I suppose that was the strategy. Anyway.... I'm curious to see how these alliances mesh together after the merge. Either way I'm not feeling super nervous. I am playing to Not get last place - 1st is obviously out of the question which is fine with me. Someone else can enjoy the fine work of art on their mantel for a season :)
DoW - Jon. For the same reasons Michal noted. I would have loved to see the EW article that Margot found. I'm always in favor of voting for Alec.
Melissa--the EW article was the one Michal mentioned in her original post. The writer is her new favorite Survivor blogger (I think because he has a really snarky sense of humor!).
I think you're vastly, vastly underrating Keith. He did what he had to do to get through an ugly fifth wheel situation and did it without using his idol. Now he has a chance to put something together with Wes and Jeremy. I think he's the second most likely winner of the game, close behind Josh. I'm prepared to crossbook him vs other castaways or accept long-odds bets on him winning the game.
I'm not buying this "foursome" alliance. They don't really trust each other. It follows that I'm not buying stock in any of those players. Baylor plays hard and Missy's played a nice under-the-radar game but now the real game begins. Jon (my vote for DoW) is an imbecile and Jaclyn's dumb as a pile of rocks. This foursome resembles a Sanders draft more than it does a power alliance.
I was pretty stunned to see Daddy Issues ranked ahead of us. I could argue for my team and against DI but first I want to see if anyone wants to take DI in a total points bet vs Q&F, for a drink at Murphy's next draft.
I'm also interested in booking the Buffoons straight up vs DI, if anyone wants to give me 3:1 odds or better.
Let me know.
After some spirited back and forth texting the following bets have been made:
Michal and Tom
Jeremy vs Keith for $20. If Jeremy wins Survivor, Michal wins $20. If Keith wins Survivor, Tom wins $20. If neither of those players wins the bet is a push.
Ben and Tom
Jon vs Keith
Missy vs Keith
If Keith wins Survivor Ben owes Tom one handle or bottle of wine $50 or less, 1 drink at Survivor dinner, and 5% of the next tournament they both play $1650 or less. If Jon or Missy wins Tom owes Ben 1/2 of the stakes described above.
I am offering another bet. I think Natalie will make final 3. Anyone want to bet against?
Welly welly welly welly! Hello Survivor pundits! 5 weeks of blog posts and many, many comments are tl;dr, but I will say Buffoons are happy to still have two tards remaining. I am hoping we a) don't get last and b) don't improve on Michal's worst score ever.
Drewche for DoW last 5 weeks.
Woo! All this side betting is too rich for my blood! And now I feel like I should root against Keith just so my grandbaby can still get new shoes!
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