Saturday, November 22, 2014

Survivor 29: Episode 9

Wow, I so did not see Jeremy getting voted out this soon! I do think that Jon needed to vote out Jeremy but it seems like it's waaaay too early. Now the "power couple" alliance of Jon, Jaclyn, Missy and Baylor is on some pretty thin ice. Natalie feels betrayed & Reed voted with them this time, but will he really stand by the people who voted out his boyfriend? They could both easily choose to ally themselves with the good ol' boys now, and there goes the alliance's majority. This seems like way too big of a risk just because Jeremy knew that Jon had an idol. Really that's pretty small potatoes considering Jon then blabbed about it to pretty much everyone else.

This was exactly the time that you whittle down the good ol' boys alliance so that you can nullify the power of Keith's idol. Get that group down to 3 people, then you split votes to get out Keith or Wes, and THEN you blindside Jeremy. Really, I think this alliance will pay for this decision in the long run. And really, the decision that they made was allowing Jon to be the brains of their operation.

On the other hand, this was a great episode for the good ol' boys! The door is wide open for alliance shifts, power plays, and crucial immunity idol saves. Well done by Keith for not playing his idol this episode, it must have been mighty tempting.


Side Bets:
  • Reed ftw: Moon v. Ben at 100:1 odds (two bits)
  • Jeremy v. Keith ftw: Michal v. Moon ($20)
  • Missy v. Keith ftw: Ben v. Moon (one handle or bottle of wine $50 or less, 1 drink at Survivor dinner, and 5% of the next tournament they both play $1650 or less)
  • Jon v. Keith ftw: Ben v. Moon (see above)
  • Josh v. Jeremy ftw: Moon v. Ben

The Teams:

Michal & Ben "The Misfits": 67 points
  1. Josh (18 pts)
  2. Jeremy (29 pts)
  3. Missy (4 pts)
  4. Keith (16 pts)
Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 25 points
  1. Reed (17 pts)
  2. Natalie (16 pts)
  3. Rocker (-6 pts)
  4. Julie (-2 pts)
Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 19 points
  1. Alec (11 pts)
  2. Drew (2 pts)
  3. Wes (12 pts)
  4. Val (-6 pts)
Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 19 points
  1. Baylor (10 pts)
  2. Jon (9 pts)
  3. Kelley (1 pt)
  4. Dale (-1 pt)
Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points


Power Rankings:
  1. The Misfits - Losing Josh & Jeremy back-to-back was devastating, but Keith and Missy are still strong competitors this season. Keith is surprisingly good at the challenges -- really if anyone is a big challenge threat the record would say that Keith, not Jeremy, is the one to target! Missy is as socially crafty as ever, although at this point I think she'll have a hard time winning jury votes just because of how protective she is of Baylor and how much everyone dislikes Baylor.

  2. Daddy Issues - Baylor won Doug & Bri some much needed points, which was shocking considering how useless she's been in the point department up until now. And Jon is turning into a power player this season, as ill-equipped mentally as he seems to be for this role. He's been flip-flopping all season long & doesn't seem to realize that this is a problem! Although maybe it's not. After all, it hasn't gotten him into any trouble so far & everyone keeps approaching him and Jaclyn for their "loyalty."

  3. Queers & Foreigners - This new turn of events has the most effect on Natalie's game and I'm really interested to see what she does about it. I think she's definitely capable of making moves, and quite frankly, running circles around a lot of the other players. She'll probably see this as a huge set-back now, but if she plays her cards right, this could turn out to be a huge opportunity for her to get out of Jeremy's shadow, get some power & recognition, and have a strong go at making it to final tribal.

  4. The Buffoons - The Buffoons are in a much stronger position after this last episode. They still aren't in great shape by any means, but at least they're headed in the right direction. Potentially with some help from Papa Keith, Wes can go far. And at this point Alec would be my first pick as a dreg to bring with me to the finals. That boy has done absolutely nothing beyond piss people off. He's the perfect compatriot for a schemer to take to the finals! I wonder if anyone is thinking that far ahead though...


Douche of the Week

I can't recall anyone being particularly douchey this week. I think I'll go with Missy for obviously not trying very hard against her daughter in the reward challenge, essentially quitting the immunity challenge so she could cheer Baylor on, and also for betraying Jeremy. Not especially douchey, but definitely aggravating.

8 comments:

Margot said...

I vote for Reed for DOW for getting into Keith's bag. I think that is the epitome of douchiness...and especially the way he did it and tried to justify himself. He was just being petty because they voted off his boyfriend. Grow up, Reed!

Otherwise, I'm with you, Michal, although I think Missy may be craftier than we think. Time will tell. I hope Natalie demonstrates some real strategy/brains this week!

Bag said...

I think in a game of deceit, going through someone's bag is no big deal. He was trying to make something happen. I wouldn't have handled it the same as him, but I don't think going through the bag is bad in and of itself.

Missy for DoW for the reasons Michal mentioned.

Michal Greenberg said...

I think that missy is crafty, but i also think she was a better player when Baylor wasn't on her tribe.

Agreed with Bag about the bag. After all just a few weeks ago they all went through julie's bag so no one should feel like their stuff is safe.

TheGraveWolf said...

Surprising episode! The first plot twist that wasn't betrayed by the editing/previews. I wish Survivor would do that more.

My dislike for Jon and his 'strategy' continues to grow as he bumbles his way through the season. He's probably the favorite to win with Jeremy gone and that is a sad situation indeed. This isn't a sexist statement but more a reflection on the likely jury members. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Alec, Wes, and Keith vote for a non-male/non-gay finalist.

I think the ouster of Jeremy was a good idea but perhaps a week too early. I don't see Reed switching over to the good old boys + Natalie so the core four is probably going to get away with it.

It's interesting that in this season people do not seem all that upset by Jon and Jaclyn's constant flip flopping. There is usually a more negative vibe towards that.

I'm rooting against a lot of people at this point and it's getting harder to find people I want to cheer for.

Wolfy's Power Rankings

The Misfits - Although no longer an unstoppable juggernaut, the Misfits have a comfortable lead and the same amount of players left as everyone else. Keith will need to successfully play his idol to have a shot and Missy needs to take Baylor off the apron strings before it ruins her game. There will be plenty of fallout from this latest blindside.

DI - Jon and Baylor are core four and I see them both at the final tribal. Baylor is a great person to have at the final. She will receive Missy's vote and that's it.

Q&F - I think Natalie is in deep doodoo. I hope she can pull something off because she is one of the few likable players left but I don't think she will be on the island much longer. Reed will probably get a bit farther because of his tenuous alliance with the Four but I don't see anyone taking him into the finale.

The Buffoons - Alec and Wes are great candidates to take to the finale as they would garner few votes but I see them as Jon's jury minions instead.

Individual Power Rankings

Jon
Missy
Jaclyn
Baylor
Keith
Reed
Natalie
Wes
Alec

Jon is my DoW.

Doug said...

I'm going to vote Reed as my DoW as well, for the same reasons that Margot stated. I know he was desperate, but I think he could have handled it a lot better. I'm curious if he only went through Keith's bag or if he went through everyone's looking for a target.

Dumb on Keith's part for not getting rid of that damn clue though.

I think J&J made a big mistake with this vote. I totally agree that the numbers are not guaranteed in their favor. Natalie could be scorned and now the power alliance could be in the minority. Dumb move. They should have waited. Jon should have fessed up that he had an idol sooner to his alliance too. Now he is a target.

I don't think Jon is favorite to win at all. I can see him going home this next episode unless he really patches things up. There is going to be some serious scrambling happening after a shake up like that. Natalie has a ton of power now.

GnightMoon said...

Classic episode, one of the greats. Although it was thrilling and dynamic, I agree with y'all that it wasn't a brilliant play by the "core four." Indeed, waiting one week would have made a lot more sense from a numbers perspective. But I don't blame Jon for making the move at that moment, because he knew that you can't keep a "Godfather" player like Jeremy around when he knows you've been dishonest with him. Jon DoW.

I think it's wide open now. If I had to predict what would happen now, it would be Reed continuing to vote with the "Core Four" until it's down to them and him. Then he will posit himself as the swing vote between the two couples. Then he will choose the couple he thinks he has the best chance against in front of the jury. Then, he may win the vote because the vote for his opponents may be split. That's why you always take the 100:1s.

GnightMoon said...

But mostly I'm excited about Reed because he's been getting a ton more screentime lately including a lot of of confessionals. There's also a "back from the dead!" storyline emerging around him with Josh emotionally watching it all from Tribal Council. Feels like he's got as good a shot as anyone right now.

Andrea Sanders said...

Hello everyone. This is Zack's better looking half. I'm sorry for my quietness on the commenting. So without further adieu..

(These views are entirely my own)

Each time I watch a new episode I feel like I'm on a super bad date that I just want to end. I see myself nodding my head at what their saying while day dreaming of the last BF that was so much hotter.

I miss Tony Vlachos, Woo, and Spencer.

Wes is the only one that I begrudgingly like. I think it’s my Florida roots coming through - my inner “cracker.”

I did have friends just like that savvy little Southern man. I spent weekends sandwiched between the hot swampy wilderness and my Florida hillbilly friends hiking in 90 + degree weather while they gigged for frogs.

Truth be told - I really liked Jeremy and was in silent tears at his departure.

Ben / Michal - You lost a good one.

My vote for douchebag of the week is Alec. In fact, he is my DOW for all weeks. He stinks like a overflowing compost bin.

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In good health,
Andrea M. Sanders