While I'm sad to see the previous tribe dynamics play out, the mix-up did create an interesting situation for the loved ones. Wes & Keith are the only ones not paired up, and it probably is working to their advantage at this point. After all, Kelley's demise is almost entirely attributed to her forced alliance with her father.
If anyone has some insight as to 1) why Jon & Jaclyn sided with Missy & Baylor, and 2) why they decided to vote out Kelley over Dale, I'd love to hear it! I'm thrilled for the Misfits that they chose Missy & Baylor, but I'm not sure it makes sense. After all, Jaclyn said right from the start "I don't trust Baylor"... and isn't trust what this game is all about? And if this tribe really wants to challenge the blue team in the next 1-2 immunity challenges, shouldn't they have voted out the elder statesman of the Kelley/Dale alliance?
On the other side of the island, a mass plan of manipulation is being waged on Alec that is sure to be successful because, well, it's Alec. The plan might even be a bit of overkill with this kid, but I like seeing how smoothly & sneakily it's being executed at this point. Could they end up going too subtle? That could potentially be a problem. But overall, stroking his ego by telling him that he's so much cooler, smarter & better than his brother, and cautioning him against the dangers of allying with doubles is a great strategy, especially if given enough time for it to sink in.
Another question: Now that almost all the loved ones are on the same tribe as each other, how will the Hero's Challenge play out? Will the rock-paper-scissors winner get to choose who they go up against?
The Teams:
Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 27 points
- Josh (6 pts)
- Jeremy (7 pts)
- Missy (6 pts)
- Keith (8 pts)
- Reed (9 pts)
- Natalie (9 pts)
- Rocker (-6 pts)
- Julie (8 pts)
- Baylor (3 pts)
- Jon (5 pts)
- Kelley (1 pt)
- Dale (1 pts)
- Alec (6 pts)
- Drew (2 pts)
- Wes (7 pts)
- Val (-6 pts)
Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points
Power Rankings:
1. The Misfits - Our biggest issue at this point will be if the blue tribe loses a challenge before the merge. Then Jeremy & Josh will be gunning for each other with potentially disastrous results for the Misfits. However, I could totally see Jeremy's plan working on Alec, but then gunning for Reed instead of Josh since Alec knows & likes Josh better. It'd be a good appeasement/compromise. Missy now seems secure & Keith is flying under the radar with an immunity idol, so things are good for our elderly folks.
2. Daddy Issues - The tribal mix-up resulted in a civil war for this team, and Kelley is the first casualty. She probably won't be the last. Issues over rice & who mentioned Dale's name on Day 1 really shouldn't have been enough to tear this potentially powerful alliance apart, but in the end it did. Now Doug & Bri really need to hope for a couple of big challenge victories from the yellow tribe before the merge, or they could get decimated. Jon & Jaclyn need to start thinking long-term too. If yellow loses the next challenge & they vote out Dale, then J&J could find themselves in the minority of their alliance if yellow loses again. It should be pretty easy for Missy to convince Keith to vote with her & Baylor since they're both parents, similar age group, etc. But, if J&J try to target, say, Baylor next time, then they are suddenly the only allied pair on the tribe moving forward, which would again put a big target on them! Of course I could be overthinking it - they may win challenges or there may only be one challenge left before the merge, so this could all be a moot point. Still, they should start building a stronger relationship with Keith now if they want to try & keep themselves safe.
3. Queers & Foreigners - This seems like a strong team, but I just don't see any winners here. Natalie, perhaps, but her vociferousness could be a problem. Neither Reed nor Julie are proving to be all that great at strategy. Still, they all have the potential to go far & earn a lot of points along the way. With the new point system awarding more points for folks who make it deep in the jury, that could be all it takes to win this season.
4. The Buffoons - Alec is definitely going to be used as a pawn for the remainder of his time in the game. Wes is smarter & a better strategist, but he just may not be in the position to make any big moves. Things might change though once they make the merge.
Douche of the Week:
The level of douchiness has dropped off significantly since the season premiere! With both Rocker & Drew gone, the choices for DOW will be less obvious moving forward. This week I'll give my vote to Dale for freaking out so much about the portioning of rice. Certainly not a major faux pas, but potentially this reaction is what convinced Jon & Jaclyn to vote out his daughter.
9 comments:
Strong analysis Pickle.
I don't know if you happen to feel the same way and just haven't highlighted him, but I think Keith is arguably the favorite to win this season. He's sneaky-smart, he gets a ton of screen-time, he's likable and he's already proven he can wriggle out of slippery social situations. I think he's right there with Josh as obvious favorites.
Disastrous episode for Daddy Issues. I don't know that I would put our team ahead of theirs because of the lack of upside you described, but Daddy Issues has a ton of downside right now. They've got to be panicking.
Your team is so much better than the others. You guys have the most players, the best players and the most points. Your only fear is what you described, a Josh/Jeremy conflict, but that seems unlikely because the production hasn't highlighted other potential heroes for us. You have all the screentime warriors except for Baylor.
Dale DoW for exactly the reason you described. Very unfortunate exit for Kelley, thought she was playing well.
I hadn't considered Keith a favorite before, probably because he got on Jeremy's bad side. At this point I want to see how he manages having a hidden immunity idol. It's a strong sign that he hasn't told anyone about it yet, but I still fear a pre-mature mis-play from him.
Team Daddy Issues was pumped for the new tribes, right up until Orange lost that challenge. And then the issues with Missy and Dale came to a head.
Bummer we couldn't have won a challenge with all 4 ponies on the same team. That would have been a nice points boost.
I think J&J decided on Kelley because Jon kept saying that Kelley did the exact same things on the former Blue tribe as Baylor did on the former Orange tribe. When it comes down to it, I think Jaclyn defers to Jon's opinion, and if they had determined all else was equal, that's how it was decided. Jon's vote simply outweighed hers. I'm inferring a little here, but that made the most sense to me.
Daddy Issues is by no means slowing our roll. Hopefully a few Orange wins will get us some points and shake some things up on Blue.
Keith is looking good, but I don't think I have the faith in him yet to make it to the end. I agree with Michal, it will come down to how he manages that idol.
Don't forget there could still be a huge loss for a team with the potential for a quitter. The season previews certainly made it look like someone quit during the season. The question is who...
My DOW goes to Alec. I can't believe he deep down really thinks that the only possible reason his brother could have been sent home was because Drew is "Too Good" at everything. Alec couldn't even fathom a different scenario. Thus -> DoW.
I completely forgot to give my prediction for the food debacle on Blue. I think Jeff will show up to their camp, laugh at the dismal 1/2 handful of rice they have left, proudly display a new full bag of both rice and beans, and then drop the bomb that if the tribe wants the food, they have to immediately vote someone out without having time to deliberate.
If the situation plays out as stated above, I see Julie or Natalie being sent home. I think Moon and Melissa should be worried about this upcoming food trade.
Any other guesses?
My thoughts on voting out Kelly over Dale is that it just makes more Survivor sense. Dale has shown himself to be a social misfit, often isolating himself from whatever group he happens to be in whether it's through actual physical distance or social ineptitude. If you are John and Jaclyn and you are entering into a new alliance you would probably want to keep around the guy who you KNOW your new alliance hates as opposed to someone they may be willing to work with.
Moon, I think calling this a 'disastrous' episode for Daddy Issues is an overstatement and maybe a bit of a knee jerk reaction. Daddy Issues was already in trouble before the swap. Jon was dead in the water and Baylor was constantly targeted. Even with the loss of Kelley and impending loss of Dale (which is the same as before) their two power players are in superior positions. I think we need to see one or two more episodes but I see this foursome going deep into the merge. It wasn't a great episode for D.I. but I don't believe them to be in worse shape than they were before.
I hope that Blue has to give up their shelter instead of voting someone out and then that leads to the quitter. An immediate vote out makes sense from a TV audience perspective but I don't believe it actually penalizes the tribe. In some cases, like when there is a Drewche, it rewards the tribe. The tribe should have to suffer as a whole instead of being allowed to trade in a sacrificial goat.
DoW = Dale
Wolfy's Power Rankings
The Misfits
D.I.
Q & F
Buffoons
It's a close race as to whether the Buffoons will be completely eliminated before Bag and Andrea post a comment.
We might need a new rule for the pool; if you don't have a blog comment of any sort before your team is eliminated, you must purchased 1 beverage for everyone that attends the Survivor draft (draft guests included).
HAHAHA!! It's so true, Bag & Andrea need to get on it!!
Doug, thanks for bringing up the potential price for rice -- I completely forgot to mention that!
I think an insta-tribal council or losing shelter are the two most likely scenarios. Other option could be losing both flints & the comfort reward they won, but that just doesn't seem brutal enough. Maybe the whole tribe has to move to Exile Island? I don't know... if it is an insta-tribal I don't see the group going for it. With the mix-up just having happened none of them should feel secure enough to want to risk their name getting written down... except maybe members of the Buffoons.
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