Winners At War: Finale

 

Survivor wrapped up its thrilling 40th season with a stirring finale, featuring the gladiatorial return of long-exiled Natalie and a number of riveting challenges and teary exits. The epic three hour finale climaxed in a decisive fire-making challenge with a razor-thin margin of victory between two of Survivor's greatest and most intimate combatants. The winner of that challenge, Tony, received three fourths of the votes the next day at Final Tribal, cementing his legacy as one of the greatest castaways ever to play the game. We'll examine that legacy in a moment, but first let's take a look at final pool standings and the castaways Tony overcame in the finale.

Final Standings

1. Ben & Michal - 250 points
Yul - 19
Parvati - 26
Sarah - 33
Nick - 40
Tony - 124
Danni - 8

2. Doug - 222 points
Yul - 19
Jeremy - 23
Nick - 40
Ethan - 2
Denise - 41
Natalie - 97

3. MoonBee - 221 points
Wendell - 19
Sophie - 24
Adam - 19
Adam - 19
Ben - 43
Natalie - 97

4. Baggins - 215 points
Boston Rob - 16
Sophie - 24
Parvati - 26
Tyson - 20
Tony - 124
Amber - 5

5. Phil - 138 points
Wendell - 19
Jeremy - 23
Sarah - 33
Ethan - 2
Michele - 56
Amber - 5

6. Eric - 54 points
Boston Rob - 16
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 20
Ben - 43
Danni - 8

The Final Six

Denise augmented a venerable reputation with her unforgettable eradication of Sandra, a spectacularly-satisfying backstabbing I believed was unnecessarily heavy-handed. Denise goes home with that feather forever in her cap plus the knowledge she hung deep into the game's most competitive season and busted out only because four of her five opponents held idols. She's got a title belt stuffed in that cap too, from a season she attended every tribal council.

Ben trampled a weak cast with relentless gritty play his first season. Then he took advantage of a late-game twist conspiracy theorists and Ben Greenberg believe was corruptly planted to give him opportunity he normally wouldn't have had and offer a more compelling Final Tribal. In any case, Ben was shrewder than most or all of his competitors that season and few of them this season. Some have speculated his most memorable moment this season - offering his own head to Sarah as a resumé-builder - occurred only because Ben correctly self-assessed he had no chance of winning a final vote. It may have been his last chance at redemption - and he seized it.

Would Sarah have beaten Natalie and Michele if her flame had cauterized the rope before Tony's? I believe so. By that point, Sarah had keenly spotlighted her struggle to receive credit for outplaying and outwitting in a misogynistic world. The jury wasn't particularly impressed with Natalie's monolithic Edge game or Michele's act of survival, plus Tony's presence on it would surely have tilted respect Sarah's way. If her flame had burned through first - and it was ohsoclose - the GOAT conversation would be revolving around Sarah instead of Tony.

It was unfortunate and unbecoming for Michele to go without a vote at Final Tribal. Ironically, her grand anxiety - playing an effective game and earning no respect for it - was realized at that voteless Tribal. Certainly her performance justified more. It wasn't powerful or flashy, but scrappy and chameleonic. Michele was in such hot water all game her goal was typically to survive the next vote rather than burnish her extracurriculars. By the time she washed up at Final Tribal, her two competitors had developed resumés - one physical, one all-around - too impeccable to dent. Michele isn't in the GOAT conversation, but can hold her head high as one of the very few to win one season and make Final Tribal another.

Natalie did prove there was more to her game than physicality when she won San Juan Del Sur. We're not talking about Ozzy here. But the physical element is what Natalie will be remembered for - because the fitness and athleticism she displayed this season was transcendent but also because her social game faltered. I don't recall the events that got Natalie voted off first this season - that feels like ancient history - but she did get voted off first. And when she got back in the "real game", she didn't do enough to accentuate her physical accomplishments. Sure, she linked up with Michele to topple the Ben/Sarah/Tony alliance, but anyone with two idols could've pulled that off. As Rob mentioned at Final Tribal, she isolated the fellow Edge players too severely to earn all their votes. She pitted Sarah against Tony in firemaking rather than attempt to slay the dragon herself, claiming she wanted the alliance to destroy itself and that she'd already done enough to earn votes.  Ultimately most sided with Tony - despite spending more of their time with Natalie. She'll go down as a legendary physical player with an ordinary social game.

Tony overwhelmed his competition the first season he played with psychotic, uncompromising aggression. His game was raw and villainous. He picked up where he left off for Game Changers and was promptly voted out first. That early exit illuminated a lightbulb over Tony's head: the maniac style is not appropriate for many Survivor situations, particularly for pre-targeted former winners. The best players can access maniacism but don't reside in it. Tony told everyone he was flipping the switch this season and did it. We spent the first two thirds of the season wondering if Tony would ever switch gears back towards aggression. It may be hard to remember now, but the traits Tony displayed for the bulk of this season were modesty, whimsicality and deference.

Then, when it came time, he flipped the switch. Starting with a masterful takedown of the opposition leader, Tony was a tour de force down the stretch. He did it all those last few episodes, tactfully outwitting, outplaying and outlasting his opponents. Like a great actor, poker player or bicycle racer, Tony's greatest strength was ultimately revealed to be his mastery of diverse and incongruent skills. Tony has come a long way in his Survivor career - as a player and as a human being. He's earned his title as the King of Survivor.

Winners At War: Episodes 12 & 13

Since its explosively popular debut season in the summer of 2000, Survivor has continually evolved and innovated. It's gone through dozens of motifs, gimmicks and rule-changes. It's hard to fathom now, but immunity idols didn't even exist until its eleventh season. Viewers have received most of these innovations warmly. But the double-elimination "Edge of Extinction" concept pioneered in season 38 has been more divisive. Many fans feel this twist is too radical. Critics feel it warps the game into something it shouldn't be, rewards players for the wrong accomplishments and diminishes the dramatic finality of a vote-out.

I'm not a big fan of it personally. The prospect of instant mortality drives the tension in the game. Knowing anyone can die at any moment isn't just a George R.R. Martin parlor trick. It's automatic drama. Although a castaway's chances of winning are reduced if they go to the Edge, Chris has already shown it's not a death sentence.

This season, all castaways are eligible for the jury. Many of those on the Edge have been living together for weeks, developing intimacy and respect they cannot for players they see talk to Jeff Probst once every few days. A telling example came late this week, with Natalie gifting Tyson an idol. Coming into the game, it appeared Jeremy was her strongest connection. But after a few weeks on the Edge, it became Tyson.

Soon the jury will convene at Final Tribal and vote on a winner. Jurors like Amber and Danni will be weighing the personal relationships they've made on the Edge against the machinations they've heard described by people they've spent little time with. Jurors shouldn't be faulted to begin with, and it will be particularly hard to fault this group for choosing a castaway they've bled with on the Edge over castaways whose conquests they've only heard described.

The players most likely to benefit from this season's format appear to be Natalie and Tyson. Both are physical players who possess advantages (Natalie has three) that will help them in the return challenge and idols that will notch them an additional step should they return to "the real game." And both have earned the respect of many who will be casting the final votes.

The format leaves the door open for extraordinary comebacks in our pool. Ben & Michal are the favorites, but five of the six teams have a conceivable chance heading into the finale. Only Big Eric is drawing dead, and he was drawing dead before the draft.

Standings

A few notes:

• I regularly screw up while tabulating these point totals. Last week I made at least three mistakes! Big thanks to Doug for meticulously double-checking and explaining my errors every week. Who knows how many mistakes I made this week? (Doug does). These current numbers may be off.
• We've been using the classic scoring system centered around making the jury even though everybody makes the jury this season. The system gives 0 points to the first player eliminated before the jury, negatively descending points to those eliminated before them, and positively ascending points to those eliminated after. Ethan got -4 for his "elimination" way back when; each subsequently eliminated player has received one more point. Nick got 6 points for his elimination last episode. I have no idea or opinion if this was the right way to score this season. It's not too late to change. Leave a comment if you disagree with how we've done it thus far.
• Points got wild in the latest episode, with Natalie and Nick garnering eight each for their disadvantage transaction. That number doesn't feel appropriate for such a minor event. Natalie now has more points than anyone in "the real game" except Tony. Still, I like the scoring system we've used for tokens, and do feel like Natalie has played a game deserving of grande fantasy points. We'll discuss changing the scoring in further seasons if tokens continue to be a factor.

Ben & Michal - 134 points
Yul - 15
Parvati - 22
Sarah - 19
Nick - 36
Tony - 38
Danni - 4

Doug - 128 points
Yul - 15
Jeremy - 19
Nick - 36
Ethan - -2
Denise - 29
Natalie - 31

MoonBee - 116 points
Wendell - 15
Sophie - 20
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 20
Natalie - 31

Baggins - 107 points
Boston Rob - 12
Sophie - 20
Parvati - 22
Tyson - 14
Tony - 38
Amber - 1

Phil - 82 points
Wendell - 15
Jeremy - 19
Sarah - 19
Ethan - -2
Michele - 30
Amber - 1

Eric - 54 points
Boston Rob - 12
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 14
Ben - 20
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

I believe we've seen the last of Boston Rob on Survivor, at least for several years. Perhaps he and/or Sandra could return for a "Geriatrics vs. Youths" season or something eventually. We'll also likely never see Amber again, though I did enjoy her rare confessionals. Danni didn't do anything to justify a return. Ethan is done. Among other old-schoolers, I think Tyson, Parvati, Yul and Kim have the best shot at getting back on. Tyson fills the "crusty mean veteran with a heart of gold" role with a little more panache than Rob at this point. Parvati played well enough to maintain her reputation as an all-timer. Yul played impressively before an unfortunate numbers squeeze and Kim reminded viewers of the form she displayed in one of the hardest dominations in Survivor history.

We won't miss Wendell. Denise is done. Michele has had thirty minutes of fame when she'd get only fifteen in most permutations. Everyone's sick of Ben, including his tribemates. But there are a number of new-schoolers we may see again. Tony is an easy choice, sure to entertain. I think he comes back and gets voted off in the first three episodes. Natalie's domination on the Edge - coupled with the misfortune of playing the whole season on the Edge - gives her the edge, no pun intended. Sarah is a great player, but it feels like we've seen everything she has to offer at this point. Nick is articulate and scrappy, but not very interesting or exciting. Nobody will miss him. Adam is more likely to get back on, just because he packages his quotes so conveniently for the editors. Sophie's reputation was sullied by busting out with an idol in her bag, but she's still a better player than Adam or Nick and even more articulate.

Of course, the one player who will definitely come back if they want is the champion. I believe that player will loosely be regarded as the greatest to ever play the game. There will be plenty of debate, and as I mentioned in the last blog the Survivor sample size is meaningless. But someone has to be considered the GOAT and the only other someone to have won twice tarnished her reputation this season.


5. Phil

Phil has lingered in the top half of the power rankings for the better part of two months due to what DFS players call "PMR" - player minutes remaining. But as DFS players know all too well, PMR doesn't insure anything. Your players have to actually score fantasy points, and Phil's mostly haven't. Unless one of his Edge residents surprisingly returns, Phil will need Michele to outscore Tony by 52 points in the finale to win. The Denver Nuggets are more likely than Michele to score 52 points next week.


4. Baggins

Bag still has Tony, which is nice except the Greenbergs have him too and he trails them by 27 heading into the finale with one fewer player. Still, Bag's candle flickers. He'll need someone from the Edge to come back and outscore Sarah by 27. In other words, Bag will need Rob, Sophie, Parvati, Tyson or Amber to win the $2 million. Tyson appears most likely to do so from this group, with the others having little chance combined.


3. MoonBee

Ben has made the final episode and outlasted every other player on our team and I'm still disappointed we drafted him. I remembered Ben running roughshod over some weak competition his season before the controversial finale some believe was rigged, including the other Ben in this pool. If the producers did indeed "rig" that season, they must be regretting it - because Survivor Ben has done little to endear himself to anyone this season. Our dim prospects of winning the pool lie with Survivor Ben, even though I think Natalie actually has a better shot of winning the $2 million. Still, I won't really be rooting for the guy on Wednesday night. Prospective winners would be wise to bring him to Final Tribal.


2. Doug

At first glance it might appear Doug needs Denise to outscore Sarah and Tony by six points in the finale to win, but his best hope is Natalie. There's been some half-hearted, half-honest threat talk about Denise the Queenslayer, but she'd never get enough final votes to win. Natalie could.


1. Ben & Michal

Like a couple of trilogy superheroes who fight each other the first two movies and join forces in the finale, Sarah and Tony have learned their powers are greater together than in opposition. Surely they're two of the greatest to play the game; WaW's finale may coronate one of the two atop the all-time Survivor throne.

The Greenbergs ride into the finale with a healthy advantage. They have the most points. They have two players "left", tied with Phil for most. The players they have left are the two favorites. But there are still a million permutations left, a whole deck of river cards that will define the most anticipated season of Survivor.

Winners At War: Episodes 10 & 11

I often compare Survivor to poker tournaments. Both require difficult-to-quantify degrees of skill and luck to win. Strategy is endlessly deep and creative in both. But within a single game, that strategy is insignificant relative to the variance of the game. I've thrown out a number of castaways as potential GOATs should they win this season. But two to six seasons is no sample size in a game with so much variance. It might take a hundred seasons to determine someone's skill for Survivor. For all we know, the true GOAT could be someone who played once and quietly expired before the Merge. It could even be Vytas. Not.

But the game doesn't really behave like a poker tournament. As poker tournaments progress, players extend advantages over their competitors by acquiring more chips. A big stack is a weapon. In Survivor, it's often a disadvantage. Smart opponents preemptively strike down the "chip leaders" before their advantage can be realized at Final Tribal.

Bicycle racing is the better analogy. The leader of a bike race sits in its most difficult position. The leaders face more air resistance than those drafting behind them. It's harder for the leader to progress than it is for the coattail riders in the peloton. Leading, in fact, usually ends up destroying the leader. Here's a dramatic example, featuring our friend Mara Abbott:



Mara may have been the most impactful member of this race. She may even have been "the best." But she didn't win this one. Her followers identified her as the big threat and chased her down right before the finish. Mara needed the race to be over a kilometer earlier. She didn't quite time it right - or perhaps there just was no way to time it right.

It takes tremendous physical effort to chase down a biker hell-bent on a gold medal. In Survivor, all it takes is shared recognition that the leader is in fact leading. Savvy players eliminate their greatest competition with alacrity. Survivor is a race to a finish line. But you lose the race if you build too big a lead, perhaps any lead. It's a fascinating, delicate balance. It's been starkly illustrated in the post-Merge world of Winners At War.

Standings

Ben & Michal - 94 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 18
Sarah - 18
Nick - 12
Tony - 31
Danni - 4

Baggins - 90 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sophie - 18
Parvati - 18
Tyson - 12
Tony - 31
Amber - 1

MoonBee - 83 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 18
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 15
Natalie - 9

Doug - 64 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 9

Phil - 61 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 18
Ethan - -2
Michele - 19
Amber - 1

Eric - 45 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 12
Ben - 15
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

I've been rewatching Game of Thrones. It's not as good as I hoped on second viewing. It's not poorly made or anything (at least through five seasons, where I'm at) but it depends on plot to do the dramatic heavy lifting. It's not as compelling when you know what's gonna happen. Which I'm sure would be true of Survivor too. Anyway, I'd forgotten the nastiest scheme Ramsay Bolton comes up with to torture Theon: after a few weeks of standard torture Ramsay hires a couple hot girls to wake Theon up and seduce him (not a challenging ask in Theon's case). Right at the moment of insertion, Ramsay comes in and cuts Theon's genitalia off. (Why doesn't Melissa want to watch this show?? I have no idea).

That's what happened to Tyson and Big Eric Schwartz this season. They went through a few weeks of standard torture before getting exiled to the Edge of Extinction. They recognized hope as their most dangerous enemy and bottled it deep within. At the exact moment their fortunes appeared to turn, they were bamboozled. Their fate was not redemption, but rather an even worse version of torture. Now they know never to hope again.


5. MoonBee

We had five players left after episode seven. Four episodes later, we have one. In the last month there's only been one elimination who wasn't on our team, and that player (Tyson) had already been eliminated a month ago. It's been a precipitous fall. I'm just glad it happened to Eric Schwartz first.

Speaking of Eric, he's the other player with Ben on his team. Meaning nobody in this pool needs to worry about Ben. Not that I believe anyone was losing sleep over the cowboy's chances. He doesn't seem to get much respect from other castaways or the viewing public. He's certainly a strong and accomplished player, but even a surprise WaW victory wouldn't put him in GOAT consideration.


4. Baggins

It was surprising to see Sophie confess she'd considered herself a "Bottom Tier Winner" before this season. I remembered her victory as dominant. But that memory might be biased since she was on my team. In any case, Sophie proved to the world and to herself that she's a Top Tier Player. More importantly, we found out the Michal Greenberg doppelgänger is in fact engaged to a Ben Greenberg lookalike. Cheers, Sophie.

Also, RIP Baggins. He was the bike racer who destroyed his quads to win the big climb to the mountaintop and had nothing left for the final chase.


3. Doug

Nick keeps grinding, but he needs a huge and visible move to convince these former champs he's worthy of a second belt. You could say the same of Denise, but she already made her huge and visible move. Sharp as these final few are, they'll identify Denise as an ideal mate for Final Tribal. She's got a good shot at final three and almost no shot at Sole Survivor. Doug needs all his players to contribute to the thirty point hole he finds himself in.


2. Phil

Jeremy faced a rare and imperative scenario in Episode 11: who he voted for determined his own fate. If he'd voted for Sarah - as he intended until a few minutes before Tribal - it would have been him heading to the Edge. Jeremy needed to trust Tony and switch his vote to Sophie to survive. He appeared to wrestle with this abrupt and stressful decision, but got the right grail in the end. He chose wisely. If Jeremy hadn't trusted Tony in the crucible, here's what would have happened:



Also note that Jeremy would have been skeletonized if Tony hadn't decided to save him. Tony has been searching for shields all season. In this episode he decided to save one GOAT (Jeremy) at the expense of another (Sophie).


1. Ben & Michal

We've been talking about Tony waiting to flip the switch all season. He waited and waited and then Wednesday night he flipped the switch so violently it ripped out the electrical socket, the drywall and the pillars the game stood upon.

I won't recap Tony's incendiary episode. I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it "one of the most stunning and dominant episodes of Survivor ever" as Mr. McAtee did, but I'd agree it was "classic, chaotic Tony, and also a magnum opus." Indeed, Tony reasserted himself as a GOAT. What made it truly impressive was how long he waited to take the mask off. 

Winners At War: Episode 9

As the immediacy of a $2 million vote hastens, the post-merge world is beginning to fracture. Long-held alliances and metastrategies have run their course, having delivered their disciples to the final ten. Each player can now visualize a path to Final Tribal and the votes needed to win it. The horses of this race are eyeing the tracks they'd like to gallop to the finish line.

Standings

MoonBee - 83 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 21
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 15
Natalie - 6

Ben & Michal - 69 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 15
Sarah - 17
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Danni - 4

Baggins - 66 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sophie - 21
Parvati - 15
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 61 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 6

Phil - 60 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 17
Ethan - -2
Michele - 19
Amber - 1

Eric - 42 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 9
Ben - 15
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Tyson has wormed his way back into the game. He's taken advantage of the post-merge chaos - and generated much of it - to carve out a niche of safety. His safe standing is only temporary, but Tyson does have a clearer path to victory than many of his opponents. With everyone making the jury, an old-school survivor could garner many delegates at Final Tribal. By then, Tyson may have expanded his coalition to the New School. He's one of the GOATs, he's got a new lease on life and he's building steam.


5. MoonBee

Ouch. The big decision to square Adam finally came back to bite me. The worst part is that I insisted on taking him over Tyson and had already counted my chickens on that one. Now Tyson is amongst the favorites with ten remaining and Adam is hopelessly serving out his days on the Edge.

The fact is we never had much of a team. Variance and timing dangled fruits of glory in front of our noses. But it was just the hope of a lousy poker player with an early big stack. Wendell nor Adam ever established any traction. Both came in too hot. Neither ever tasted a slice of humble pie. They spent their whole seasons teetering like those in this week's Immunity Challenge before inevitably splashing into the ocean.


4. Doug

Nick's desperation is obvious. You know someone is desperate when they plead at Tribal for everyone else to play the game. All that means is nobody is playing with you. This one came off particularly pathetic because we'd just seen a wild ten-minute edit of everyone playing the game. Playing hard. Nick is a survivor in every sense of the word. It wouldn't be surprising to see him navigate his way to the end like a Frogger player. But it would be to see many people vote him worthy of a second title.


3. Ben & Michal

The edges are fraying for Sarah. Everyone was suspicious of her game coming in. While it appeared to be a completely benevolent gesture, gifting her Chinese to Nick sounded an Amber Alert for Sarah's competitors. She instantly drew heat, and the Next Time On shows it's only gonna get hotter. A few days ago, Sarah seemed like someone who could lead a three-player "inner alliance" to Final Tribal; now it's hard to imagine many players willing to take her that far.


2. Phil

I'm not actually beating myself up for taking a second Adam over Tyson. That made sense strategically. But I am wondering what the hell we were thinking in taking Wendell over Jeremy. Dammit, I didn't even like Wendell originally. And Jeremy is one of my all-time favorite players, a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and a contender for true GOAT. He's playing his usual flawless, passionate, determined game. He's winning friends and influencing people. He's outwitting, outplaying and outlasting. Beast.


1. Baggins

I just texted Bag asking if he's caught up on Survivor. He didn't even know how many episodes behind he was. He couldn't remember if he'd seen the Merge yet. I imagine he gave up on his team a month ago. Imagine his shock if he loaded up this blog and saw his name atop the Power Rankings.

Bag's team continues to bolster. I talked about Tyson's renaissance. With Sarah slipping, Sophie is now the chip leader. But this was an especially encouraging episode for Tony. He hasn't called many shots or even made many "Tony" moves other than one pointless trip to the Spy Shack. Mostly he just talks about keeping Big Threats together and then votes for whoever Kim and/or Jeremy tell him to. But he's starting to shift gears. Tony hasn't exhibited a winner's persona this season, but he could easily make Final Tribal.

Winners At War: Episode 8

The drama meter rose a couple notches this week. Tyson edged Boston Rob in one of the most exciting challenges in Survivor history and returned to the game. The tribes merged. Sophie almost froze to death. Intrigue deepened when we learned everyone is part of the jury. Adam survived another close shave and Wendell was finally sent packing. It was an exciting episode and likely a harbinger for a thrilling stretch run.

Standings

MoonBee - 75 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 6

Ben & Michal - 63 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Danni - 2

Baggins - 63 points
Boston Rob - 11
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 61 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 6

Phil - 52 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -2
Michele - 13
Amber - 1

Eric - 39 points
Boston Rob - 11
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 9
Ben - 13
Danni - 2

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Big Eric is off the hook. With Rob accumulating points faster than anyone on any island and Tyson returning to the game, Eric's team won't go down in infamy as the worst ever assembled. The Survivor Gods punished Rob for claiming he was the GOAT last week with an excruciatingly close and critical challenge loss. That was one the five most exciting challenges ever played - and one of the five most devastating losses.

Melissa and I decided Sandra was correct to leave the game. We all blasted her for giving up. But let's be real. There was no way an empty-pocketed Sandra was going to win a challenge against players with advantages to get back in the game. Obviously she wouldn't have won the one that actually took place. Further, Sandra would've had no footing even if she did get back in. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it's preposterous to envision a scenario in which Sandra could win a Final Tribal vote for $2 million. We're talking about a 10,000 to 1 parlay here. Is a 10,000 to 1 shot worth weeks of misery and boredom? I really don't blame her.


5. Doug

After dead-and-buried Eric, the rankings get very tight. I stared at the sheet for ten minutes before putting Doug here. Like many DFS lineups, it comes down to deciding on two-player switches. Doug has a two-player switch of Jeremy/Denise from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Tony. Jeremy is locked in like an expert air traffic controller on ritalin, but Denise has no allies, no clout and might've been toast this week if she hadn't won immunity. Tony doesn't have the traction necessary to garner votes at Final Tribal, but his history and demeanor suggest he's capable of mounting a charge.


4. Ben & Michal

This was a sneaky-awful episode for the Greenbergs. They didn't lose a player, but they didn't get one back either. They gained just two points in a points-bonanza episode. They fell further behind us, dropped into a tie with Baggins and can feel Doug's breath on their necks. But the worst part of it was what happened to Nick. He had no idea Wendell was the target and suddenly finds himself next in line to the slaughterhouse.


3. MoonBee

It was nice to take in the views from the summit for a week. But now we're in danger of falling all the way down the mountain. (Well, not all the way - Big Eric will be there to break our fall). Wendell's uninspiring run came to an end, or at least a hiatus, and Adam Squared continues to live in hot water. For a player who got every vote at Final Tribal and (I believe) set a record for the highest-scoring season in pool history, Adam sure makes it nervewracking. Nobody trusts him. He's physically unimpressive. He never has a stable alliance. He's constantly getting votes at Tribal.

But these are the ways of the New School. This is actually how Adam wants it. He'd rather go stag to the big dance. If you're not bound by an alliance, your vote is always available. Your strategy is malleable. You might actually earn more respect from your peers by breaking an alliance rather than keeping it. This season isn't looking promising for Adam, but he's wriggled his way out of worse jams before.


2. Baggins

So much for making fun of Bag's team. Wednesday night, Bag executed the most stunning turnaround this side of Joe Biden's Super Tuesday. Tyson vaulted back into the game, then slipped right back into a fresh voting block. Tony found himself on the right side of another alliance, Boston Rob earned another bushel of points and Sophie's teeth stopped chattering. It was an epic episode for Team Sanders.

Now take a look at this team. It's a two-player switch from our team, Bag's Tyson/Tony vs. our Adam/Ben. We have two Adams and a twelve-point cushion but I still think that's advantage: Bag. It's also a two player switch of Sophie/Tyson from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Nick. Again that looks like Bag has the nod. Bag's remaining players have no current correlation, however, so it might be difficult for him to get multiple players deep.


1. Phil

Somehow Phil lost a player and moved up the power rankings. He sits in fifth place, 23 points back, but he's got the best remaining players. Michele's prospects took another downturn, but Sarah and Jeremy live at the top of the food chain. We've heard some talk of a gritty blue-collar alliance including Jeremy, Sarah, Tony and Michele. If that alliance seizes control of the post-merge world, Phil will ride it to victory like a surfer who's discovered the perfect wave.

Winners At War: Episode 7

Some of you might not know why #Vytas is a punchline in this pool. Vytas first appeared on the Blood vs. Water season with his younger brother Aras, who'd already won a season. Vytas was posited as a recovered addict with a new lease on life. He arrived with a well-rounded game, but two characteristics really stood out: deep wisdom earned the hard way and sensational charisma. Vytas played impressively, escaping some nasty jams along the way. In one instance, a tribal shakeup marooned him on a new tribe with four players who'd been tribemates and hardly knew Vytas. They lost the challenge, but Vytas worked his magic, endeared himself to his new teammates and got them to vote someone else out. Ultimately Vytas was offed along with his Aras in a conspiracy led by eventual champion Tyson. But in one season Vytas managed to mend his damaged relationship with Aras and capture the hearts of millions of viewers.

One of those hearts was mine. I fell hard for Vytas. His performance on Blood vs. Water was one of the strongest I'd seen. I thought he played great, but even more, I just really liked the guy. I wanted to be his friend.

The next season was a fan favorites edition and Vytas got another shot. Though the entire cast was popular returning players, we ranked Vytas tops (ahead of Jeremy, who'd go on to sweep Final Tribal 10-0-0). We drew the first pick in the draft and snapped Vytas up. The draft was the same night as the season premiere. Everyone excitedly went home and watched the first episode. Vytas, the first pick in the draft, was voted out first.

He didn't get screwed. He wasn't ousted by a cunning alliance that targeted him as a power player. He didn't wind up on some tribe of unflappable pre-existing allies. Vytas got voted out because he was a giant douchebag from the moment he stepped off the boat.

I don't know what the hell happened to Vytas in the months between his two appearances. Maybe the fame got to his head. Maybe he went in with a different strategy because he didn't win the first time. Maybe he fell off the wagon. Who knows? The point is, Vytas was not the same person as he was on Blood vs. Water. Just because we get to know a player one season doesn't mean we know who that player will be in another.

Some of these players appear to be the same people they were when they won Survivor. Jeremy, Natalie and Ben come to mind. Some of these players are on the Edge because they played the same as the seasons they won - because they didn't change. Boston Rob, Tyson and Parvati are obvious examples. Some players are pretty similar, but improved. Sophie, Sarah and Nick have come back stronger than the seasons they won. And some players have regressed.

Wendell is this season's Vytas. For whatever reason (including the edit, perhaps) he's not the same player. He cruised through his initial season almost effortlessly. He was strong and sensible and likable. This season he's been none of those things. But he's still in.

Yul is not.

Though it's been fourteen years since he originally competed, Yul's game hasn't regressed. He's been just as impressive this time around. He's been strong, sensible and likable. He dominated a softer season, but has shown an adaptability to shark-infested waters. At last night's Tribal, Yul noted he'd already had to lie more than he did his entire first season. He's affected the game as much or more than any other player. It sure feels like he's played better than Wendell.

Survivor lies somewhere between a poker tournament and a Plinko board. It's really hard to predict what will happen. The tribal shakeups are as random as two cards off the deck. Yul's fate this week was decided by half of a second. Win that challenge and they make the merge. It's a completely different game for Yul.

We're subject to the edit of who these people are rather than who they really are out there. Even if we could judge their personalities and demeanor, it's really hard to correlate qualities of a person to their success in the game. We're not even the ones playing Plinko/Poker - we're the ones betting on it.

Standings

MoonBee - 70 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 61 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 11
Tony - 10
Danni - 1

Baggins - 52 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 3
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 47 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 10
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 16
Natalie - 2

Phil - 45 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 10
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 27 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 3
Ben - 13
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Just when you thought Eric's team couldn't get any worse, Sandra Squared literally waived the white flag for a tasty -3 X 2. She's officially out of the running for GOAT. Fortunately for Eric's chances of avoiding WOAT, Boston Rob redeemed him by somehow landing three separately-located tokens before six of his opponents could. Prediction: Rob gives at least one of his newly-acquired tokens to his wife. Rob now appears most likely to challenge Natalie in a battle royale to return from the Edge. Here's hoping it's Natalie - for the sake of the show and our team - who gets back in the mix.


5. Baggins

Since Bag's team isn't worth discussing, this is a good time to talk about the player nobody has - Kim. She's settled into an alliance with Jeremy and Tony. If that alliance falls on the wrong side of a tribal vote, those big guns would likely be targeted ahead of Kim. She's making a lot of drafters, especially Bag and Eric, look silly.


4. Doug

Yul was a better first-round pick than Wendell in every way but the only one that mattered. He deserved better. Survivor's a cruel game, though we can't feel too bad for the few who've won it before. Yul will go down as one of the game's most venerable players, no matter his efforts on the Edge.


3. Ben & Michal

Tony needs to step it up to have a chance. Yul talked about how nice he was, but it appeared during last week's Spy Shack his alliance doesn't really respect his game. Tony needs to embellish his social, physical and strategic resumés post-merge.


2. Phil

I noted last week that Michele and Wendell were likely to battle soon. It appears I was wrong. They had the opportunity to off one another but opted for Yul instead. It's tough to tell why. Was it because they have a stronger connection with each other than they had with Yul, despite their tension? Was it because Yul was viewed as a more formidable endgame threat? Was it ageism? I really don't know. It does appear the Michele/Wendell hook-up is back on - only in terms of voting. Phil has a shot if that duo persists, as the rest of his team is strong in spite of the Ethan grenade.


1. MoonBee

Three seasons ago - the season Adam ultimately led us to a blowout victory - Pickett infamously ranked us last to begin the season and only begrudgingly inched us up the rankings as our team persisted and others fell apart. I talked a lot of trash in the comments about our ranking. The thesis of the trash talk was math, not personality: our players might not have been impressive, but they were numerous.

Hopefully I made the same mistake this season. I've been hesitant to move us up the rankings despite the numbers advantages we have. But Yul's offing has made those numbers too hard to ignore. We have a nine-point edge on the second-place Greenbergs. We have a one-player advantage and 25 points on Phil. We have at least two players on everyone else.

But this perch is tenuous. Seemingly every player we had was mentioned as a voting target in the "Next Time On." Adam's removal would knock us down to three players. And Sophie is the only confidence-inspiring player on our team. The math is with us, but all it takes to change that is one random bounce down the Plinko board. 

Winners At War: Episode 6

DVR has changed my life. Almost everything I watch is on DVR. Even in the COVID Era, I still wait to watch my favorite shows (AKA Survivor) until the perfect moment. My friends know not to text me about sporting events until the next day. Sports, of course, are far less exciting if you know the outcome - and so is Survivor. While knowing the result of a Tribal Council is ruinous, I do enjoy getting a friendly text that simply reads "Did you watch Survivor?" That's a tip-off the episode is going to be dramatic.

Thursday I got the text from an obviously-excited Phil. He added that it was epic and "a game winning play was made." It did turn out to be a thrilling episode, but the significance Phil put on it was overblown. Denise was not in contention for the $2 million, and neither was the player she ousted. Sandra was the last vestige of the Old School, an elementary that's been relocated to the Edge of Extinction. Perhaps Denise's big move vaults her into the mix, but I'll explain later why her splash at Tribal revealed more desperation than competence.

The real season has yet to begin. Everything that's happened thus far is just table-setting. The old guard has been systematically quarantined to the Edge like a batch of South Korean COVID-positive patients. The defining alliances have yet to crystallize. The true contenders have yet to develop the resumés they'll present to Final Tribal. The true players are patiently waiting to shift gears until the old guard has been eradicated and the three tribes become one.

Standings

MoonBee - 57 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 15
Adam - 10
Adam - 10
Ben - 10
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 55 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 11
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

Doug - 43 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 14
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 42 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 15
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 39 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 11
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 26 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 5
Sandra - 5
Tyson - 2
Ben - 10
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Sandra's demise was delicious for those who view her as a villain. Sandra was done in by all the elements she's based her game on over the years: aggressively parsimonious play, nefarious alliances and manipulation of "weak" players. It was fitting to see her toppled by Denise, who hadn't made a peep this season. It was a compelling reminder that every castaway this season is an accomplished assassin. There are no weaklings in Winners At War.

With just Ben left, Eric's putrid squad currently checks in two points behind Pickett's all-time worst score. Without digging through the archives, I'll say that ancient season had fewer than six players per pool team. It probably had far fewer ways to score points. And it certainly didn't have a cast of players we could have evaluated in advance. Ben and Eric's numerous Edge players have just one mission left: extricating this squad from the Hall of Shame.


5. Bag

It kinda looked like Wendell was serious about selling Parvati his Tribal vote for her tokens. And it kinda looked like Parvati folded rather than shove her chips in. And Parvati definitely got voted out after folding. While players like Yul and Sarah have aged into their vintage eras, Parv doesn't have that juice anymore. Her game is predicated on a thorough understanding of the social fabric of the game, dictating manipulation. This Parv was never fully plugged-in socially, so her manipulative skills - while still honed - were less applicable.

After selling an idol nullifier to Parv for a token, Tyson said "my only option" was to purchase a food item, but it appeared he could have bought an advantage in the return challenge. His justification for the peanut butter - both nutritional and psychological - was convincing. But he gets a -1 for using it on a comfort item. And you know Natalie would never do this. She's hoarding hers for that big moment. With the way Natalie plays, she might even return to the game with an idol in her pocket.


4. Phil

Wendell's choppy season continues. Sooner or later his tension with Michele is going to cost one of them the iron price, and I'm guessing it's Wendell. He's come off a bit douchey and detached this season. 

I critiqued the Parvati pick, but Sarah in the third round is a pick we should all be ashamed of. She's one of the leading contenders thus far, and can earn consideration for true GOAT status with a win this season. She has a rare ability to mask intense intelligence. She's a calm, well-rounded player with a heightened scent for lies. With Parvati and Sandra out of the running, Sarah would become the true GOAT with a victor this season.


3. MoonBee

Last week I talked about how crucial it was "our" tribe didn't win the challenge. This week it did, so we soared up the standings. It was especially helpful for Adam, who admitted he was on the wrong side of the ballot if it went to a vote. He'll likely be toast if he heads back to Tribal before the Merge - which didn't appear to be happening based on the "Next Time On...SURVIVOR." Ben's stock is rising too, but we likely have only one player who can win the game (two if we count Natalie).
 
Sophie continues to crush. She's quietly dominated this season and is rapidly moving up the list of all time GOATs. Her game is strategically based, but she's a highly likable, social player who's stealthily awesome in challenges. Sophie plays Survivor like poker - she plays the opponent, not the cards. She knew Rob's playbook and dispatched him without fuss. The best part is the MoonBee can root fully for her because Bag's team is hot garbage.


2. Doug

"I may end up burning an idol that I wish I had down the road," Denise said before Tribal. Then she burned an idol on Jeremy that she'll wish she had down the road. Why? Maybe because Denise is desperate for allies. She hasn't gotten much of an edit this season, and while the backstabbing of Sandra was an Et tu, Brute? move, the extra idol for Jeremy was a setback in real life and in the pool. It cost Denise 5 points.

Yul has picked up right where he left off 14 years ago. He never seems to draw consideration for a vote despite his alpha appearance and obvious electability. Sandra's donation of her token his way shows the respect and admiration his peers have for him - I don't think they had much actual contact. Nick made a wise decision to go with the guys and oust Parvati. He's playing his game and it continues to be the right season for it. But it's Jeremy that makes Doug ultra-dangerous. He's quietly slipped right back into the middle of the stream after a rocky entrance.


1. Ben & Michal

The Greenbergs have a 2 v 2 swap against Doug - their Sarah & Tony vs. Doug's Jeremy & Denise. This feels like a thin advantage for Ben & Michal, thinner because Doug has the Edge edge with Natalie vs. Danni. But the Greenbergs are currently up twelve points on Doug, so they get the ranking nod for now.