Since its explosively popular debut season in the summer of 2000, Survivor has continually evolved and innovated. It's gone through dozens of motifs, gimmicks and rule-changes. It's hard to fathom now, but immunity idols didn't even exist until its eleventh season. Viewers have received most of these innovations warmly. But the double-elimination "Edge of Extinction" concept pioneered in season 38 has been more divisive. Many fans feel this twist is too radical. Critics feel it warps the game into something it shouldn't be, rewards players for the wrong accomplishments and diminishes the dramatic finality of a vote-out.
I'm not a big fan of it personally. The prospect of instant mortality drives the tension in the game. Knowing anyone can die at any moment isn't just a George R.R. Martin parlor trick. It's automatic drama. Although a castaway's chances of winning are reduced if they go to the Edge, Chris has already shown it's not a death sentence.
This season, all castaways are eligible for the jury. Many of those on the Edge have been living together for weeks, developing intimacy and respect they cannot for players they see talk to Jeff Probst once every few days. A telling example came late this week, with Natalie gifting Tyson an idol. Coming into the game, it appeared Jeremy was her strongest connection. But after a few weeks on the Edge, it became Tyson.
Soon the jury will convene at Final Tribal and vote on a winner. Jurors like Amber and Danni will be weighing the personal relationships they've made on the Edge against the machinations they've heard described by people they've spent little time with. Jurors shouldn't be faulted to begin with, and it will be particularly hard to fault this group for choosing a castaway they've bled with on the Edge over castaways whose conquests they've only heard described.
The players most likely to benefit from this season's format appear to be Natalie and Tyson. Both are physical players who possess advantages (Natalie has three) that will help them in the return challenge and idols that will notch them an additional step should they return to "the real game." And both have earned the respect of many who will be casting the final votes.
The format leaves the door open for extraordinary comebacks in our pool. Ben & Michal are the favorites, but five of the six teams have a conceivable chance heading into the finale. Only Big Eric is drawing dead, and he was drawing dead before the draft.
Standings
A few notes:
- I regularly screw up while tabulating these point totals. Last week I made at least three mistakes! Big thanks to Doug for meticulously double-checking and explaining my errors every week. Who knows how many mistakes I made this week? (Doug does). These current numbers may be off.
- We've been using the classic scoring system centered around making the jury even though everybody makes the jury this season. The system gives 0 points to the first player eliminated before the jury, negatively descending points to those eliminated before them, and positively ascending points to those eliminated after. Ethan got -4 for his "elimination" way back when; each subsequently eliminated player has received one more point. Nick got 6 points for his elimination last episode. I have no idea or opinion if this was the right way to score this season. It's not too late to change. Leave a comment if you disagree with how we've done it thus far.
- Points got wild in the latest episode, with Natalie and Nick garnering eight each for their disadvantage transaction. That number doesn't feel appropriate for such a minor event. Natalie now has more points than anyone in "the real game" except Tony. Still, I like the scoring system we've used for tokens, and do feel like Natalie has played a game deserving of grande fantasy points. We'll discuss changing the scoring in further seasons if tokens continue to be a factor.
Ben & Michal - 134 points
Sarah - 19
Tony - 38
Doug - 128 points
Denise - 29
MoonBee - 116 points
Ben - 20
Baggins - 107 points
Tony - 38
Phil - 82 points
Sarah - 19
Michele - 30
Eric - 54 points
Ben - 20
Power Rankings
6. Eric
I believe we've seen the last of Boston Rob on Survivor, at least for several years. Perhaps he and/or Sandra could return for a "Geriatrics vs. Youths" season or something eventually. We'll also likely never see Amber again, though I did enjoy her rare confessionals. Danni didn't do anything to justify a return. Ethan is done. Among other old-schoolers, I think Tyson, Parvati, Yul and Kim have the best shot at getting back on. Tyson fills the "crusty mean veteran with a heart of gold" role with a little more panache than Rob at this point. Parvati played well enough to maintain her reputation as an all-timer. Yul played impressively before an unfortunate numbers squeeze and Kim reminded viewers of the form she displayed in one of the hardest dominations in Survivor history.
We won't miss Wendell. Denise is done. Michele has had thirty minutes of fame when she'd get only fifteen in most permutations. Everyone's sick of Ben, including his tribemates. But there are a number of new-schoolers we may see again. Tony is an easy choice, sure to entertain. I think he comes back and gets voted off in the first three episodes. Natalie's domination on the Edge - coupled with the misfortune of playing the whole season on the Edge - gives her the edge, no pun intended. Sarah is a great player, but it feels like we've seen everything she has to offer at this point. Nick is articulate and scrappy, but not very interesting or exciting. Nobody will miss him. Adam is more likely to get back on, just because he packages his quotes so conveniently for the editors. Sophie's reputation was sullied by busting out with an idol in her bag, but she's still a better player than Adam or Nick and even more articulate.
Of course, the one player who will definitely come back if they want is the champion. I believe that player will loosely be regarded as the greatest to ever play the game. There will be plenty of debate, and as I mentioned in the last blog the Survivor sample size is meaningless. But someone has to be considered the GOAT and the only other someone to have won twice tarnished her reputation this season.
5. Phil
Phil has lingered in the top half of the power rankings for the better part of two months due to what DFS players call "PMR" - player minutes remaining. But as DFS players know all too well, PMR doesn't insure anything. Your players have to actually score fantasy points, and Phil's mostly haven't. Unless one of his Edge residents surprisingly returns, Phil will need Michele to outscore Tony by 52 points in the finale to win. The Denver Nuggets are more likely than Michele to score 52 points next week.
4. Baggins
Bag still has Tony, which is nice except the Greenbergs have him too and he trails them by 27 heading into the finale with one fewer player. Still, Bag's candle flickers. He'll need someone from the Edge to come back and outscore Sarah by 27. In other words, Bag will need Rob, Sophie, Parvati, Tyson or Amber to win the $2 million. Tyson appears most likely to do so from this group, with the others having little chance combined.
3. MoonBee
Ben has made the final episode and outlasted every other player on our team and I'm still disappointed we drafted him. I remembered Ben running roughshod over some weak competition his season before the controversial finale some believe was rigged, including the other Ben in this pool. If the producers did indeed "rig" that season, they must be regretting it - because Survivor Ben has done little to endear himself to anyone this season. Our dim prospects of winning the pool lie with Survivor Ben, even though I think Natalie actually has a better shot of winning the $2 million. Still, I won't really be rooting for the guy on Wednesday night. Prospective winners would be wise to bring him to Final Tribal.
2. Doug
At first glance it might appear Doug needs Denise to outscore Sarah and Tony by six points in the finale to win, but his best hope is Natalie. There's been some half-hearted, half-honest threat talk about Denise the Queenslayer, but she'd never get enough final votes to win. Natalie could.
1. Ben & Michal
Like a couple of trilogy superheroes who fight each other the first two movies and join forces in the finale, Sarah and Tony have learned their powers are greater together than in opposition. Surely they're two of the greatest to play the game; WaW's finale may coronate one of the two atop the all-time Survivor throne.
The Greenbergs ride into the finale with a healthy advantage. They have the most points. They have two players "left", tied with Phil for most. The players they have left are the two favorites. But there are still a million permutations left, a whole deck of river cards that will define the most anticipated season of Survivor.
8 comments:
I am ok with the classic scoring and am excited for the finale and Zoom Reunion.
The only reason I (barely) keep scoring straight is the episode summaries on Wikipedia. And even then, this season has been a tough one to score, so I'm happy to help. This last episode was especially complicated with all the Fire Token stuff. I agree with how Tom scored it, and we ultimately might have to correct who from Extinction bought advantages (+2 per advantage) as the end of the episode skipped over it really quickly.
The current juror point rule that Tom laid out in this blog is actually already a modification of our actual rules. But I think it works pretty good for the way we have done it this season (because of the quantity of Jurors). I would suggest some slight corrections.
- Traditional scoring according to the rule sheet is negative descending points so that the last person to NOT make the jury gets (0). The first person to MAKE the jury is supposed to get (+10) and then it ascends up by one for each member added from there. So there is a greater disparity of points between juror / no juror than we currently have it (+10, +11, +12, etc). For this season, this would make some jury members earn more points for their spot on the jury than making the final, which doesn't make sense.
- Since everyone this season but Sandra is on the Jury, the big point disparity doesn't make sense. My suggestion is that Sandra should have a 0 for not making the jury, and everyone else should get ascending points starting at 1 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.) in the place they went out. This means every contestant should get a plus 4 correction except for Sandra and maybe Tyson (since he came back and left again).
Sandra should get net 0 for Jury points. Currently, and conveniently, she did get net 0 for Jury. She did get a negative point however for the dreg rule, but her overall score shouldn't be corrected.
I think Tyson should get the higher jury spot points, but not both. Someone check if my Tyson scoring adjustment would then be correct - Tyson should get a (-1) for going out before Kim in Episode 4 but that should be it (currently -3), since we would be negating his jury points here. Tyson then goes out in episode 10 again so he should get a +4 correction to that episode. This is a total of +6 for Tyson.
TL:DR - Jury correction point suggestion:
If on extinction and not coming back = +4
Sandra = n/a
Tyson = +6
Making the final tribal should stay according to our rules as an auto +20, then +5 for every "Winner vote" the player receives.
Looks like (before corrections) Jeremy got +6 for his jury spot, Nick got +7, so next would be +8 AND the +4 correction so next out would be +12? Tom, is this right?
Feel free to blow this ^ apart as my head now hurts after typing it out.
As for fire tokens, I think we make adjustments in the future as we didn't anticipate the extortion element, but the points as scored should stay for this season and the extinction players scored more points than they likely will in the future.
I support Doug's suggestions.
I have not rewarded the points yet. I'll wait a couple days to see if anyone has qualms with this before updating.
I believe Jeremy got 6 points and Nick got 7 for their respective eliminations. So the next elimination would be 8 points, but all are getting the +4 bump now so it will be 12 points for next elimination if we go with this.
I'm in favor of any scoring system that moves me closer to the first spot. Here's my suggestion, and you all have 3 minutes to agree or it's written in stone.
Jury points are awarded in the opposite order we normally do it. First one voted out gets most jury points. Last one voted out gets the least. Anyone who leaves the island and avoids the jury gets a 64.4 point bonus.
I agree with Doug.
I do not agree with Eric.
Sandra needs a nice -10 for leaving the island and quitting.
I struggle that Natalie, the first person voted out is crushing one points, I'm a big believer that those who make it furthest without being voted out should be accumulating the most points.
That said, if an island member comes back and wins, there should be a huge bonus for that, I just don't like those voted off being considered better fantasy players, just my opinion though.
Since everyone (except Sandra blah) is on the jury points should be tempered. I would rather see a points awarded in groups of three. The first three voted out get 1 point, the next three 2 points, next three 3... this helps minimize rewarding those who quite frankly, don't deserve it.
Lastly, if Natalie makes it back, she wins the game. There is almost an advantage to getting voted out and coming back, I don't like it but it's a fact of human nature. The jury is building a relationship with one of the people who will get back in and they would like nothing more than to vote that person the winner.
As always, thanks to Moon for his incredible blogging and to Doug for double checking the points. This finale will be epic!
Sandra did get the negative penalty (-3) for raising the white flag while on extinction. Tom applied that one. We can discuss if that penalty needs to be harsher in the rule updates for next season, I think I agree with that, but we don't usually make in-game point adjustments.
The Fire Token rules we implemented, when we were just guessing how they would be used are definitely inflating the exile players' points. Sucks when we have to guess at how a new thing is going to be used. I agree with Phil that the exile player points should be limited unless they are affecting the actual game, but that would be an adjustment I think we all should agree on after this season.
It's not like every player on the Edge is accumulating bushels of fantasy points, or even the average one. Ethan has scored 2 points in all his time on the Edge. Amber has scored 1.
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