Blood v. Water: Episode 2

Colton's back! The man is an bullying, manipulative drama queen, but he also brings a level of excitement to the game that I'm happy to see. It seems like his tribe won't take his shit, but I think their Anti-Drama Alliance may lose power the longer they have to live with him. After all they are not a strong group for returnees, either physically or mentally -- probably they're the weakest in Survivor history. They are making giant n00b mistakes for a team of pros. I've never heard of a returning player not wanting to strategize until they lose an immunity challenge. Terrible decision!

Brad's "all women are the same" comments continue to rankle me, but I think the male alliance's decision to vote out Rachel was strategically smart. I'm pretty surprised they've lost 2 challenges in a row. They seem like the stronger & more physical group, but I guess inexperience is working against them. I don't think their losing streak will last much longer, though.


Last Season's Side Bets:

Where's my 6-pack, Bag? I want Left Hand Milk Stout. :)


The Teams:

Michal "Mind Under Matter": 22 points
1. Katie (0 pts)
2. Hayden (0 pts)
3. Colton (8 pts)
4. Kat (6 pts)
5. Tina (8 pts)

AndBag "ahhhhFUCKthat": 17.5 pts
1. John (0 pts)
2. Laura B. (8 pts)
3. Candice (1.5 pts)
4. Gervase (8 pts)
5. Ciera (0 pts)

JeffCo Cartel: 17.5 pts1. Aras (8 pts)
2. Rupert (0 pts)
3. Marissa (1.5 pts)
4. Caleb (0 pts)
5. Laura M. (8 pts)

Moon & Melissa: 16 pts
1. Vytas (0 pts)
2. Tyson (8 pts)
3. Monica (8 pts)
4. Brad (0 pts)
5. Rachel (0 pts)

red = n00b tribe
blue = returning tribe
pink = on Redemption Island

Power Rankings:

Complete Dreckitude: ahhhhFUCKthat - AndBag's team went from bad to worse when the target shifted to John this week. I really don't have anything positive to say about this team. Would enjoy watching a John v. Candice Redemption Island show-down though! I imagine a lot of crying, possibly during the challenge istelf.

Repellant: JeffCo Cartel - Losing Rupert was a foregone conclusion, but Marissa's toughness at Redemption Island was a pleasant surprise. I hope she sticks around for a while - keep that rage a'smoldering, Marissa! Aras is definitely coming across as tribe leader, too, which for a genial man like him is a good thing. Definitely a step in the right direction this week for Doug & Bri, though they still have a long way to go to have a "good team."

Terrrrr: MooMe - Losing Rachel is a blow, especially if Tyson decides to swap places. Then they're both in danger, and lucky Laura B. gets a promotion from the dangerous "newest on the tribe" position. Vytas is playing a crafty game for sure, and Brad & Monica are doing okay... probably this them playing at their highest potential, so you have to be satisfied with that.

Least Horrible: Mind Under Matter - I'm the only person with 5 players still in the game (aka not on Redemption Island), which is surprising. Katie, Hayden & Tina all performed decently, and Kat is playing exactly the role I wanted her to... which doesn't include performing well. So, I'd say this is currently the least horrible team, although only by the slightest of margins.

Douche of the Week:

My heart wants to vote for Brad again, but Colton was really obnoxious beyond compare, so I gotta go with Colton this week.

Blood v. Water: Draft & Episode 1

Survivor returns with a couple of fun twists & another enthusiastic group for the pool! During our dinner at Murphy's we celebrated Doug & Bri's victory from last season with delicious food, seasonal beer, and the next iteration of the Survivor trophy. Alas, I don't have a photo of it, but I can assure you that it is bigger, even more ninja-y, and chock full of special effects!

The Rules:

For a full list of rules, check the spreadsheet linked on the right. New rules include changes to hidden immunity idol points, penalties for voting against loved ones, and a bounty system for Redemption Island challenges. Mostly we're just tweaking & clarifying these days, though, nothing major.

Last Season's Side Bets:

Last season we had a few side bets & it's time for Bag to pay up. I won the toothpaste bet & a Malcolm hook-up bet while Moon won the med-evac bet. I don't remember what these bets were actually for, but I think that Bag owes each of us a 6-pack. What do y'all think?

The Teams:

Michal "Mind Under Matter": 9 points
1. Katie (0 pts)
2. Hayden (0 pts)
3. Colton (3 pts)
4. Kat (3 pts)
5. Tina (3 pts)

AndBag: 6 pts
1. John  (0 pts)
2. Laura B. (3 pts)
3. Candice (0 pts)
4. Gervase (3 pts)
5. Ciera (0 pts)

Moon & Melissa: 6 pts
1. Vytas (0 pts)
2. Tyson (3 pts)
3. Monica (3 pts)
4. Brad (0 pts)
5. Rachel (0 pts)

JeffCo Cartel: 6 pts
1. Aras (3 pts)
2. Rupert (0 pts)
3. Marissa (0 pts)
4. Caleb (0 pts)
5. Laura M. (3 pts)

red = n00b tribe
blue = returning tribe
lavender = on Redemption Island

Power Rankings:

This season the producers didn't bring back fan favorites. Instead, they brought back some of the least liked & non-memorable castaways from seasons past. It's going to give this season's pool an interesting twist. Most everyone doesn't like their team, and for good reason! To embrace this season of hate, I'm switching up the power rankings; no one will get a #1 ranking until their team really deserves it. (A lot of fat needs to be trimmed before this will be possible.)

Complete Dreckitude: JeffCo Cartel - with two players already on Redemption Island, Doug & Bri are the front-runners for suckiness so far. Rupert to me was clearly a bad pick. Yes he was awesome on his first 1.5 seasons, but the last 1.5 seasons he was not strong & now he's completely checked out. Aras & Caleb are the highlights of this team, though Aras will have a big target on his back since he's won before. Laura is still an unknown... as in I literally don't remember her from any previous seasons. Still, JeffCo Cartel started weak last season too, so we can never count them out!

Repellant: AndBag - John may be the favorite to win the whole season at this point. It's nice to have a counterpoint to Brad on the n00b tribe. John is smart, athletic, and seems to have both morals & ethics. Candice, Gervase & Laura B. are going to drag this team down, though, costing AndBag points in the long-term. Ciera came across as the strongest n00b female and I think she could do well.

Terrrrr: Mind Under Matter - Tina & Hayden proved more impressive than expected & Kat met my very low expectations, but I hope she'll still come through by being in a power alliance. Katie & Colton were both huge disappointments -- Katie was supposed to be smart & Colton was supposed to be devious, NOT a cry baby! Hope he switches things up soon.

Least Horrible: Moon & Melissa - they have a sexist moron on their team, and yet they still came out the strongest after this episode. Brad = despicable in every way, but Vytas was impressive & Tyson & Monica seem capable of making waves. They have also proven themselves capable of being duped big-time, though, so it's really too early to call.

Douche of the Week:

No surprise, I'm voting for Brad!

Fans v. Faves II: Finale

Alas, I don't have time for any reflection or analysis, but I wanted to share the finals scores. The winner is no surprise -- congratulations Doug & Bri!!!

JeffCo Cartel "The Great White Hope": 208 points
1. Erik - 47 pts
2. Eddie - 43 pts
3. Hope - 3 pts
4. Cochran - 112 pts
5. Allie - 3 pts

Moon "the Blindsiders": 155 points
1. Malcolm - 46 pts
2. Andrea - 54 pts
3. Michael - 20 pts
4. Sherri - 33 pts
5. Francesca - 2 pts

Pickett "Jessum's Harem": 142 points
1. Brenda - 45 pts
2. Dawn - 48 pts
3. Laura - 1 pt
4. Corinne - 17 pts
5. Phillip - 31 pts

Bag & Leah "Shamarn't": 86 points
1. Reynold - 47 pts
2. Julia - 6 pts
3. Matt - 6 pts
4. Shamar - 8 pts
5. B. Hantz - 19 pts


p.s. Check out Shamar getting out of the dog house! his -2 score turned into an 8 because he won the DOW competition!

 

Fans v. Faves II: Episode 11

First things first: Moon, I'd love to have you write a guest blog on the next All-Stars season! Please email it to me & I'll post away.

Interesting episode - I'm glad that they voted out 2 people in one episode, because the "high drama" of finally getting rid of Reynold just wans't going to be there. He was too big of a threat not to vote out, there were no better options. It's appropriate that the guy who thought so much of himself wasn't even given the feature spot in the voting-out of the episode. At the same time, though, we must bid adieu to Team Shamarn't: kudos to you for lasting as long as you did, and better luck next season!

Again, another masterful episode for Cochran! He eliminated his biggest threat in the game, Andrea, while being so subtle about it that most people in his alliance wouldn't say that it was his idea. He would just point out his concerns & then let them come to the inevitable conclusion that she had to go. Doing it this way minimizes how much of a threat the rest of his alliance might have otherwise perceived him to be. He didn't "betray his alliance", he protected it by sharing vital information. This was the play of the season, even more than defeating the Malcolm Alliance; considering Andrea's hidden immunity idol & relationship with Eddie she was about to become unstoppable.

By my judgement I think we only have 2 episodes left, which usually means we'll be finished with this season by next Sunday! I am amazed that 26 seasons in I am still so entertained by this show. Even though so much of it is the same - Probst's lines & clothing, the challenges, the living conditions - the relationships that are created in the game are so complex & unique that it's almost always a great season.



Side Bets:

Bag has lost every single side bet this season. Congrats Bag!

- Toothpaste: Pickett v. Bag -- Winner: Pickett
- Med-evac: Bag (Cochran) v. Moon (Shamar) -- Winner (so far): Moon
- Odds on Malcolm hooking up with a fellow castaway - Pickett =-500 on no hook-ups -- Winner: Pickett


The Score:

JeffCo Cartel "The Great White Hope": 125 points
1. Erik - 46 pts
2. Eddie - 32 pts
[3. Hope - 3 pts]
4. Cochran - 41 pts
[5. Allie - 3 pts]

Moon "the Blindsiders": 120 points
[1. Malcolm - 41 pts]
[2. Andrea - 45 pts]
[3. Michael - 20 pts]
4. Sherri - 12 pts
[5. Francesca - 2 pts]

Pickett "Jessum's Harem": 101 points
1. Brenda - 31 pts
2. Dawn - 21 pts
[3. Laura - 1 pt]
[4. Corinne - 17 pts]
[5. Phillip - 31 pts]

Bag & Leah "Shamarn't": 76 points
[1. Reynold - 47 pts]
[2. Julia - 6 pts]
[3. Matt - 6 pts]
[4. Shamar - -2 pts]
[5. B. Hantz - 19 pts]


Power Rankings:

1. The Great White Hope
2. Jessum's Harem
3. The Blindsiders
4. Shamarn't

Douche of the Week:

I'm going to give my vote to Erik this week. He's such a waste of space on the show, and it annoys me that once in a blue moon he pulls his head up out of the sand just long enought to declare that he is playing a good game before disappearing again.

Fans v. Faves II: Episode 11

Malcolm's story arc of bad decision after bad decision ended with - you guessed it - another bad decision. He had so much potential and it was disappointing to watch him play such a sloppy game. With him out of the picture, I hope that Cochran & Andrea will continue to search for the idol where he was looking! There is treasure there to be found.

I'm always a fan of a Survivor auction with some gross stuff involved, but I wish there'd been more of it. And shame on Team Stealth for letting Malcolm win 1 of the strategic advantages! While it didn't work out for Malcolm this time, often the minority alliance/player is able to turn the tables based on the advantages they get at the auction. They need to go in with a plan for that sort of thing, and someone needs to step up and make the "sacrifice" to win the immunity idol clue for the team.

Cochran continues his tear in challenges too! Who would have thought during the draft that at this point in the game he'd be our points leader? Strategic player? Yes. Has a chance of going on a deep run and even winning the game? Sure. But points leader? Not a chance! Cochran is almost like a Malcolm in reverse. In his first season he tried the whole betrayal & treachery plan & it didn't work out so well for him. This season he's just embracing his nerdy self & taking advantage of his strengths. I can't help but cheer for him & hope his story arc continues on its optimistic path.

Jessum's Harem, on the other hand, is letting that voice in their head get to them. (It's just Jessum, ladies, don't let him scare you!) Both Dawn & Brenda are doing a really bad job of holding it together. Hopefully the food helps.

Erik continues to be completely clueless, but he's SO clueless that people really aren't considering him as a threat, so that's actually working well for him. Will either Eddie or Reynold finally get voted out next week? They've been on the chopping block since Day 3, and it rankles me that they are both still in.

I'd like to see a women's alliance form and try & go to the end. Not sure it'll actually happen because I get the feeling they mostly don't trust (or like) each other, but I think Sherri might be able to lead the charge on that. She'd have a good chance against the other ladies, I think! She has a great underdog story, she's persevering, she hasn't really pissed anyone off, and she hasn't gone off the deep-end at any point in the game. Andrea would be her biggest competition, but she could get her knocked off fourth pretty easily I think. 



Side Bets:

Bag has lost every single side bet this season. Congrats Bag!

- Toothpaste: Pickett v. Bag -- Winner: Pickett
- Med-evac: Bag (Cochran) v. Moon (Shamar) -- Winner (so far): Moon
- Odds on Malcolm hooking up with a fellow castaway - Pickett =-500 on no hook-ups -- Winner: Pickett


The Score:

JeffCo Cartel "The Great White Hope": 114 points
1. Erik - 35 pts
2. Eddie - 32 pts
[3. Hope - 3 pts]
4. Cochran - 41 pts
[5. Allie - 3 pts]

Moon "the Blindsiders": 104 points
[1. Malcolm - 41 pts]
2. Andrea - 29 pts
[3. Michael - 20 pts]
4. Sherri - 12 pts
[5. Francesca - 2 pts]

Pickett "Jessum's Harem": 101 points
1. Brenda - 31 pts
2. Dawn - 21 pts
[3. Laura - 1 pt]
[4. Corinne - 17 pts]
[5. Phillip - 31 pts]

Bag & Leah "Shamarn't": 66 points
1. Reynold - 37 pts
[2. Julia - 6 pts]
[3. Matt - 6 pts]
[4. Shamar - -2 pts]
[5. B. Hantz - 19 pts]


Power Rankings:

1. The Great White Hope
2. The Blindsiders
3. Jessum's Harem
4. Shamarn't

Douche of the Week:

Malcolm, largely for his "even if I'd found the idol I wouldn't have played it" exit interview.

Fans v. Faves II: Episode 10

So much to talk about in this episode, but sadly I have very little time to do it! So I'm doing quick talking-points instead:

1) This episode's reward challenge was a beautiful example of how working as a team can be more powerful than having physically fit, athletic people. Good strategy & good teamwork by the purple group!

2) Dawn's breakdown & paranoia was overblown in last week's preview (thank goodness) - I completely understand how it could happen if you're getting no sleep in such a stressful environment. I just hope it didn't hurt her chances too much of winning. Yay Brenda for becoming a close ally to her too!

3) Is Cochran now the favorite to win the whole thing? I think so. Winning that food eating challenge must have given him a whomping boost of confidence that he was sorely in need of because he's been on a tear ever since!

4) I had no problem with Phillip sitting out the immunity challenge. Probst had a better chance of winning it than he did, so traumatic childhood incident or no, save the energy I say!

5) Tribal Council: was Malcolm's idol play brilliant or wasteful? I say wasteful! Considering his athleticism & puzzle-ability, using the idols for himself keeps him in the game longer with good chances of winning immunity on the way & other opportunities for flipping players in the alliance. Plus, once that alliance is down to just 1 player it's not a minority alliance anymore; it's a swing vote. I think Malcolm was hoping he could get away with not playing his idol... until Probst noted it could be a bluff. Plus, if he is going to make this sort of play, the amigos should target someone who will fracture the alliance, not Phillip. Most people in the Stealth alliance are very okay with Phillip going home, so they're not going to switch their voting plan. If they'd targeted Andrea or Cochran on the other hand things might have gotten messier. (Credit goes to Ben for making this observation.) Overall I think that Malcolm has been playing the worst strategic game this season of all the players. It seems like he wanted to be a bad guy, but he's just not that good at that kind of strategy.


Side Bets:

- Toothpaste: Pickett v. Bag -- Winner: Pickett
- Med-evac: Bag (Cochran) v. Moon (Shamar) -- Winner (so far): Moon!
- Odds on Malcolm hooking up with a fellow castaway - Pickett is taking -500 on him not hooking up with anyone


The Score:

Pickett "Jessum's Harem": 99 points
1. Brenda - 31 pts
2. Dawn - 19 pts
[3. Laura - 1 pt]
[4. Corinne - 17 pts]
[5. Phillip - 31 pts]

JeffCo Cartel "The Great White Hope": 98 points
1. Erik - 33 pts
2. Eddie - 28 pts
[3. Hope - 3 pts]
4. Cochran - 31 pts
[5. Allie - 3 pts]

Moon "the Blindsiders": 84 points
1. Malcolm - 27 pts
2. Andrea - 25 pts
[3. Michael - 20 pts]
4. Sherri - 10 pts
[5. Francesca - 2 pts]

Bag & Leah "Shamarn't": 62 points
1. Reynold - 33 pts
[2. Julia - 6 pts]
[3. Matt - 6 pts]
[4. Shamar - -2 pts]
[5. B. Hantz - 19 pts]


Power Rankings:

1. The Great White Hope
2. Jessum's Harem
3. The Blindsiders 
4. Shamarn't 


Douche of the Week:

Malcolm.

Fans v. Faves II: Episode 9

What a great episode! Lots of meta-game going on and a nice variety of strategies coming into play right now.

Dawn to me was the most impressive player this episode. Somehow word must not have made it to Malcolm & Co that she's the reason their first blindside failed, otherwise I have no idea why they'd talk to her again. But when they did she played it brilliantly. She's certainly a better actor & strategist than anyone is giving her credit for. I wonder how much of her weeping with Andrea at the end of the episode was an act too.

I'm second-most impressed by Malcolm's last-second plea/demand for Reynold's immunity idol. The fact that Reynold gave it to him was foolish, but this was insanely effective for Malcolm because 1) he saved his own idol, and 2) no one will believe that he has another one in his back pocket now. He can easily knock out a member of the majority alliance with that. However, that won't be enough for him to survive, so really what he needs to do next is figure out how to leverage his idol into more than just 1 casualty.

I wonder how much the Fave alliance calculates their plans around how likely it is that Phillip will blow them at tribal council. I think you'd have to because there's no way to control what he says. Or maybe they encouraged him to give his speech to get Reynold or Malcolm to play the idol? Now THAT would be an amazing strategy!

Right now Eddie is the only one in the Buff Guy alliance who is playing a good strategy. Trying to get Faves to switch into their alliance is a lost cause, which they should have figured that out after the last episode. Trying to wheedle your way into the majority alliance is definitely a better way to go right now. I expect Eddie to outlast Reynold at this point.




Side Bets:

- Toothpaste: Pickett v. Bag -- Winner: Pickett
- Med-evac: Bag (Cochran) v. Moon (Shamar) -- Winner (so far): Moon!
- Odds on Malcolm hooking up with a fellow castaway - Pickett is taking -500 on him not hooking up with anyone


The Score:

Moon "the Blindsiders": 84 points
1. Malcolm - 27 pts
2. Andrea - 25 pts
[3. Michael - 20 pts]
4. Sherri - 10 pts
[5. Francesca - 2 pts]

Pickett "Jessum's Harem": 83 points
1. Brenda - 31 pts
2. Dawn - 15 pts
[3. Laura - 1 pt]
[4. Corinne - 17 pts]
5. Phillip - 19 pts

JeffCo Cartel "The Great White Hope": 80 points
1. Erik - 29 pts
2. Eddie - 18 pts
[3. Hope - 3 pts]
4. Cochran - 27 pts
[5. Allie - 3 pts]

Bag & Leah "Shamarn't": 52 points
1. Reynold - 23 pts
[2. Julia - 6 pts]
[3. Matt - 6 pts]
[4. Shamar - -2 pts]
[5. B. Hantz - 19 pts]


Power Rankings:

1. Jessum's Harem - That's right, I've declared myself as the strongest team! I'm probably seriously jumping the gun on this based on previews for next week, but at this time I think that Dawn is playing the best game, Brenda is earning me points, and Phillip is annoying to the point of virtually guaranteeing himself a spot at Final Tribal. Dawn, Phillip & Cochran for the Finals!!

2. The Blindsiders - Moon has the two big guns on his tribe and there's no way they're both making it to Final Tribal. And while Andrea is a great schemer, she's prone to really intense panics which I think will ultimately be her undoing. For these reasons, even though Moon has the sole lead for the first time this season, I'm dropping him out of the top place. Losing Michael was a blow too. Better to lose him than either Andrea or Malcolm, but still, he could've brought in more points.

3. The Great White Hope - I loved watching Cochran's reaction to the Buff Guys' invitation to join the big balls club. It really proves to me how much of an asshole & idiot Reynold is. He only thinks one way so he assumes everyone else will think the same way as him. And he definitely doesn't think women are as smart as men. If he did, there's no way they could have fooled him as often as they do. Erik is still off in lala land (or beyond it) and while Eddie is finally playing a smarter game, I think it's too little too late. He also needs to be prepared to backstab Reynold which he doesn't seems to be willing to do.

4. Shamarn't - Reynold needs a new idol & a new plan fast. This guy lost everything but his lit torch this episode.


Douche of the Week:

Phillip for DOW. I almost gave it to Reynold for handing over his idol & being a misogynist, but then remembered that Phillip decided to take credit for uncovering Malcolm's betrayal. Maybe the spirit of Jessum Herring whispered it to him in a dream, but otherwise he just happened to be sitting nearby while everyone else made the plans, gathered evidence, and tricked the other players.