Winners At War: Episodes 12 & 13

Since its explosively popular debut season in the summer of 2000, Survivor has continually evolved and innovated. It's gone through dozens of motifs, gimmicks and rule-changes. It's hard to fathom now, but immunity idols didn't even exist until its eleventh season. Viewers have received most of these innovations warmly. But the double-elimination "Edge of Extinction" concept pioneered in season 38 has been more divisive. Many fans feel this twist is too radical. Critics feel it warps the game into something it shouldn't be, rewards players for the wrong accomplishments and diminishes the dramatic finality of a vote-out.

I'm not a big fan of it personally. The prospect of instant mortality drives the tension in the game. Knowing anyone can die at any moment isn't just a George R.R. Martin parlor trick. It's automatic drama. Although a castaway's chances of winning are reduced if they go to the Edge, Chris has already shown it's not a death sentence.

This season, all castaways are eligible for the jury. Many of those on the Edge have been living together for weeks, developing intimacy and respect they cannot for players they see talk to Jeff Probst once every few days. A telling example came late this week, with Natalie gifting Tyson an idol. Coming into the game, it appeared Jeremy was her strongest connection. But after a few weeks on the Edge, it became Tyson.

Soon the jury will convene at Final Tribal and vote on a winner. Jurors like Amber and Danni will be weighing the personal relationships they've made on the Edge against the machinations they've heard described by people they've spent little time with. Jurors shouldn't be faulted to begin with, and it will be particularly hard to fault this group for choosing a castaway they've bled with on the Edge over castaways whose conquests they've only heard described.

The players most likely to benefit from this season's format appear to be Natalie and Tyson. Both are physical players who possess advantages (Natalie has three) that will help them in the return challenge and idols that will notch them an additional step should they return to "the real game." And both have earned the respect of many who will be casting the final votes.

The format leaves the door open for extraordinary comebacks in our pool. Ben & Michal are the favorites, but five of the six teams have a conceivable chance heading into the finale. Only Big Eric is drawing dead, and he was drawing dead before the draft.

Standings

A few notes:

• I regularly screw up while tabulating these point totals. Last week I made at least three mistakes! Big thanks to Doug for meticulously double-checking and explaining my errors every week. Who knows how many mistakes I made this week? (Doug does). These current numbers may be off.
• We've been using the classic scoring system centered around making the jury even though everybody makes the jury this season. The system gives 0 points to the first player eliminated before the jury, negatively descending points to those eliminated before them, and positively ascending points to those eliminated after. Ethan got -4 for his "elimination" way back when; each subsequently eliminated player has received one more point. Nick got 6 points for his elimination last episode. I have no idea or opinion if this was the right way to score this season. It's not too late to change. Leave a comment if you disagree with how we've done it thus far.
• Points got wild in the latest episode, with Natalie and Nick garnering eight each for their disadvantage transaction. That number doesn't feel appropriate for such a minor event. Natalie now has more points than anyone in "the real game" except Tony. Still, I like the scoring system we've used for tokens, and do feel like Natalie has played a game deserving of grande fantasy points. We'll discuss changing the scoring in further seasons if tokens continue to be a factor.

Ben & Michal - 134 points
Yul - 15
Parvati - 22
Sarah - 19
Nick - 36
Tony - 38
Danni - 4

Doug - 128 points
Yul - 15
Jeremy - 19
Nick - 36
Ethan - -2
Denise - 29
Natalie - 31

MoonBee - 116 points
Wendell - 15
Sophie - 20
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 20
Natalie - 31

Baggins - 107 points
Boston Rob - 12
Sophie - 20
Parvati - 22
Tyson - 14
Tony - 38
Amber - 1

Phil - 82 points
Wendell - 15
Jeremy - 19
Sarah - 19
Ethan - -2
Michele - 30
Amber - 1

Eric - 54 points
Boston Rob - 12
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 14
Ben - 20
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

I believe we've seen the last of Boston Rob on Survivor, at least for several years. Perhaps he and/or Sandra could return for a "Geriatrics vs. Youths" season or something eventually. We'll also likely never see Amber again, though I did enjoy her rare confessionals. Danni didn't do anything to justify a return. Ethan is done. Among other old-schoolers, I think Tyson, Parvati, Yul and Kim have the best shot at getting back on. Tyson fills the "crusty mean veteran with a heart of gold" role with a little more panache than Rob at this point. Parvati played well enough to maintain her reputation as an all-timer. Yul played impressively before an unfortunate numbers squeeze and Kim reminded viewers of the form she displayed in one of the hardest dominations in Survivor history.

We won't miss Wendell. Denise is done. Michele has had thirty minutes of fame when she'd get only fifteen in most permutations. Everyone's sick of Ben, including his tribemates. But there are a number of new-schoolers we may see again. Tony is an easy choice, sure to entertain. I think he comes back and gets voted off in the first three episodes. Natalie's domination on the Edge - coupled with the misfortune of playing the whole season on the Edge - gives her the edge, no pun intended. Sarah is a great player, but it feels like we've seen everything she has to offer at this point. Nick is articulate and scrappy, but not very interesting or exciting. Nobody will miss him. Adam is more likely to get back on, just because he packages his quotes so conveniently for the editors. Sophie's reputation was sullied by busting out with an idol in her bag, but she's still a better player than Adam or Nick and even more articulate.

Of course, the one player who will definitely come back if they want is the champion. I believe that player will loosely be regarded as the greatest to ever play the game. There will be plenty of debate, and as I mentioned in the last blog the Survivor sample size is meaningless. But someone has to be considered the GOAT and the only other someone to have won twice tarnished her reputation this season.


5. Phil

Phil has lingered in the top half of the power rankings for the better part of two months due to what DFS players call "PMR" - player minutes remaining. But as DFS players know all too well, PMR doesn't insure anything. Your players have to actually score fantasy points, and Phil's mostly haven't. Unless one of his Edge residents surprisingly returns, Phil will need Michele to outscore Tony by 52 points in the finale to win. The Denver Nuggets are more likely than Michele to score 52 points next week.


4. Baggins

Bag still has Tony, which is nice except the Greenbergs have him too and he trails them by 27 heading into the finale with one fewer player. Still, Bag's candle flickers. He'll need someone from the Edge to come back and outscore Sarah by 27. In other words, Bag will need Rob, Sophie, Parvati, Tyson or Amber to win the $2 million. Tyson appears most likely to do so from this group, with the others having little chance combined.


3. MoonBee

Ben has made the final episode and outlasted every other player on our team and I'm still disappointed we drafted him. I remembered Ben running roughshod over some weak competition his season before the controversial finale some believe was rigged, including the other Ben in this pool. If the producers did indeed "rig" that season, they must be regretting it - because Survivor Ben has done little to endear himself to anyone this season. Our dim prospects of winning the pool lie with Survivor Ben, even though I think Natalie actually has a better shot of winning the $2 million. Still, I won't really be rooting for the guy on Wednesday night. Prospective winners would be wise to bring him to Final Tribal.


2. Doug

At first glance it might appear Doug needs Denise to outscore Sarah and Tony by six points in the finale to win, but his best hope is Natalie. There's been some half-hearted, half-honest threat talk about Denise the Queenslayer, but she'd never get enough final votes to win. Natalie could.


1. Ben & Michal

Like a couple of trilogy superheroes who fight each other the first two movies and join forces in the finale, Sarah and Tony have learned their powers are greater together than in opposition. Surely they're two of the greatest to play the game; WaW's finale may coronate one of the two atop the all-time Survivor throne.

The Greenbergs ride into the finale with a healthy advantage. They have the most points. They have two players "left", tied with Phil for most. The players they have left are the two favorites. But there are still a million permutations left, a whole deck of river cards that will define the most anticipated season of Survivor.

Winners At War: Episodes 10 & 11

I often compare Survivor to poker tournaments. Both require difficult-to-quantify degrees of skill and luck to win. Strategy is endlessly deep and creative in both. But within a single game, that strategy is insignificant relative to the variance of the game. I've thrown out a number of castaways as potential GOATs should they win this season. But two to six seasons is no sample size in a game with so much variance. It might take a hundred seasons to determine someone's skill for Survivor. For all we know, the true GOAT could be someone who played once and quietly expired before the Merge. It could even be Vytas. Not.

But the game doesn't really behave like a poker tournament. As poker tournaments progress, players extend advantages over their competitors by acquiring more chips. A big stack is a weapon. In Survivor, it's often a disadvantage. Smart opponents preemptively strike down the "chip leaders" before their advantage can be realized at Final Tribal.

Bicycle racing is the better analogy. The leader of a bike race sits in its most difficult position. The leaders face more air resistance than those drafting behind them. It's harder for the leader to progress than it is for the coattail riders in the peloton. Leading, in fact, usually ends up destroying the leader. Here's a dramatic example, featuring our friend Mara Abbott:



Mara may have been the most impactful member of this race. She may even have been "the best." But she didn't win this one. Her followers identified her as the big threat and chased her down right before the finish. Mara needed the race to be over a kilometer earlier. She didn't quite time it right - or perhaps there just was no way to time it right.

It takes tremendous physical effort to chase down a biker hell-bent on a gold medal. In Survivor, all it takes is shared recognition that the leader is in fact leading. Savvy players eliminate their greatest competition with alacrity. Survivor is a race to a finish line. But you lose the race if you build too big a lead, perhaps any lead. It's a fascinating, delicate balance. It's been starkly illustrated in the post-Merge world of Winners At War.

Standings

Ben & Michal - 94 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 18
Sarah - 18
Nick - 12
Tony - 31
Danni - 4

Baggins - 90 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sophie - 18
Parvati - 18
Tyson - 12
Tony - 31
Amber - 1

MoonBee - 83 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 18
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 15
Natalie - 9

Doug - 64 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 9

Phil - 61 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 18
Ethan - -2
Michele - 19
Amber - 1

Eric - 45 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 12
Ben - 15
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

I've been rewatching Game of Thrones. It's not as good as I hoped on second viewing. It's not poorly made or anything (at least through five seasons, where I'm at) but it depends on plot to do the dramatic heavy lifting. It's not as compelling when you know what's gonna happen. Which I'm sure would be true of Survivor too. Anyway, I'd forgotten the nastiest scheme Ramsay Bolton comes up with to torture Theon: after a few weeks of standard torture Ramsay hires a couple hot girls to wake Theon up and seduce him (not a challenging ask in Theon's case). Right at the moment of insertion, Ramsay comes in and cuts Theon's genitalia off. (Why doesn't Melissa want to watch this show?? I have no idea).

That's what happened to Tyson and Big Eric Schwartz this season. They went through a few weeks of standard torture before getting exiled to the Edge of Extinction. They recognized hope as their most dangerous enemy and bottled it deep within. At the exact moment their fortunes appeared to turn, they were bamboozled. Their fate was not redemption, but rather an even worse version of torture. Now they know never to hope again.


5. MoonBee

We had five players left after episode seven. Four episodes later, we have one. In the last month there's only been one elimination who wasn't on our team, and that player (Tyson) had already been eliminated a month ago. It's been a precipitous fall. I'm just glad it happened to Eric Schwartz first.

Speaking of Eric, he's the other player with Ben on his team. Meaning nobody in this pool needs to worry about Ben. Not that I believe anyone was losing sleep over the cowboy's chances. He doesn't seem to get much respect from other castaways or the viewing public. He's certainly a strong and accomplished player, but even a surprise WaW victory wouldn't put him in GOAT consideration.


4. Baggins

It was surprising to see Sophie confess she'd considered herself a "Bottom Tier Winner" before this season. I remembered her victory as dominant. But that memory might be biased since she was on my team. In any case, Sophie proved to the world and to herself that she's a Top Tier Player. More importantly, we found out the Michal Greenberg doppelgänger is in fact engaged to a Ben Greenberg lookalike. Cheers, Sophie.

Also, RIP Baggins. He was the bike racer who destroyed his quads to win the big climb to the mountaintop and had nothing left for the final chase.


3. Doug

Nick keeps grinding, but he needs a huge and visible move to convince these former champs he's worthy of a second belt. You could say the same of Denise, but she already made her huge and visible move. Sharp as these final few are, they'll identify Denise as an ideal mate for Final Tribal. She's got a good shot at final three and almost no shot at Sole Survivor. Doug needs all his players to contribute to the thirty point hole he finds himself in.


2. Phil

Jeremy faced a rare and imperative scenario in Episode 11: who he voted for determined his own fate. If he'd voted for Sarah - as he intended until a few minutes before Tribal - it would have been him heading to the Edge. Jeremy needed to trust Tony and switch his vote to Sophie to survive. He appeared to wrestle with this abrupt and stressful decision, but got the right grail in the end. He chose wisely. If Jeremy hadn't trusted Tony in the crucible, here's what would have happened:



Also note that Jeremy would have been skeletonized if Tony hadn't decided to save him. Tony has been searching for shields all season. In this episode he decided to save one GOAT (Jeremy) at the expense of another (Sophie).


1. Ben & Michal

We've been talking about Tony waiting to flip the switch all season. He waited and waited and then Wednesday night he flipped the switch so violently it ripped out the electrical socket, the drywall and the pillars the game stood upon.

I won't recap Tony's incendiary episode. I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it "one of the most stunning and dominant episodes of Survivor ever" as Mr. McAtee did, but I'd agree it was "classic, chaotic Tony, and also a magnum opus." Indeed, Tony reasserted himself as a GOAT. What made it truly impressive was how long he waited to take the mask off. 

Winners At War: Episode 9

As the immediacy of a $2 million vote hastens, the post-merge world is beginning to fracture. Long-held alliances and metastrategies have run their course, having delivered their disciples to the final ten. Each player can now visualize a path to Final Tribal and the votes needed to win it. The horses of this race are eyeing the tracks they'd like to gallop to the finish line.

Standings

MoonBee - 83 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 21
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 15
Natalie - 6

Ben & Michal - 69 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 15
Sarah - 17
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Danni - 4

Baggins - 66 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sophie - 21
Parvati - 15
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 61 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 6

Phil - 60 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 17
Ethan - -2
Michele - 19
Amber - 1

Eric - 42 points
Boston Rob - 10
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 9
Ben - 15
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Tyson has wormed his way back into the game. He's taken advantage of the post-merge chaos - and generated much of it - to carve out a niche of safety. His safe standing is only temporary, but Tyson does have a clearer path to victory than many of his opponents. With everyone making the jury, an old-school survivor could garner many delegates at Final Tribal. By then, Tyson may have expanded his coalition to the New School. He's one of the GOATs, he's got a new lease on life and he's building steam.


5. MoonBee

Ouch. The big decision to square Adam finally came back to bite me. The worst part is that I insisted on taking him over Tyson and had already counted my chickens on that one. Now Tyson is amongst the favorites with ten remaining and Adam is hopelessly serving out his days on the Edge.

The fact is we never had much of a team. Variance and timing dangled fruits of glory in front of our noses. But it was just the hope of a lousy poker player with an early big stack. Wendell nor Adam ever established any traction. Both came in too hot. Neither ever tasted a slice of humble pie. They spent their whole seasons teetering like those in this week's Immunity Challenge before inevitably splashing into the ocean.


4. Doug

Nick's desperation is obvious. You know someone is desperate when they plead at Tribal for everyone else to play the game. All that means is nobody is playing with you. This one came off particularly pathetic because we'd just seen a wild ten-minute edit of everyone playing the game. Playing hard. Nick is a survivor in every sense of the word. It wouldn't be surprising to see him navigate his way to the end like a Frogger player. But it would be to see many people vote him worthy of a second title.


3. Ben & Michal

The edges are fraying for Sarah. Everyone was suspicious of her game coming in. While it appeared to be a completely benevolent gesture, gifting her Chinese to Nick sounded an Amber Alert for Sarah's competitors. She instantly drew heat, and the Next Time On shows it's only gonna get hotter. A few days ago, Sarah seemed like someone who could lead a three-player "inner alliance" to Final Tribal; now it's hard to imagine many players willing to take her that far.


2. Phil

I'm not actually beating myself up for taking a second Adam over Tyson. That made sense strategically. But I am wondering what the hell we were thinking in taking Wendell over Jeremy. Dammit, I didn't even like Wendell originally. And Jeremy is one of my all-time favorite players, a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and a contender for true GOAT. He's playing his usual flawless, passionate, determined game. He's winning friends and influencing people. He's outwitting, outplaying and outlasting. Beast.


1. Baggins

I just texted Bag asking if he's caught up on Survivor. He didn't even know how many episodes behind he was. He couldn't remember if he'd seen the Merge yet. I imagine he gave up on his team a month ago. Imagine his shock if he loaded up this blog and saw his name atop the Power Rankings.

Bag's team continues to bolster. I talked about Tyson's renaissance. With Sarah slipping, Sophie is now the chip leader. But this was an especially encouraging episode for Tony. He hasn't called many shots or even made many "Tony" moves other than one pointless trip to the Spy Shack. Mostly he just talks about keeping Big Threats together and then votes for whoever Kim and/or Jeremy tell him to. But he's starting to shift gears. Tony hasn't exhibited a winner's persona this season, but he could easily make Final Tribal.

Winners At War: Episode 8

The drama meter rose a couple notches this week. Tyson edged Boston Rob in one of the most exciting challenges in Survivor history and returned to the game. The tribes merged. Sophie almost froze to death. Intrigue deepened when we learned everyone is part of the jury. Adam survived another close shave and Wendell was finally sent packing. It was an exciting episode and likely a harbinger for a thrilling stretch run.

Standings

MoonBee - 75 points
Wendell - 11
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 6

Ben & Michal - 63 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Danni - 2

Baggins - 63 points
Boston Rob - 11
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 61 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Ethan - -2
Denise - 20
Natalie - 6

Phil - 52 points
Wendell - 11
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -2
Michele - 13
Amber - 1

Eric - 39 points
Boston Rob - 11
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 9
Ben - 13
Danni - 2

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Big Eric is off the hook. With Rob accumulating points faster than anyone on any island and Tyson returning to the game, Eric's team won't go down in infamy as the worst ever assembled. The Survivor Gods punished Rob for claiming he was the GOAT last week with an excruciatingly close and critical challenge loss. That was one the five most exciting challenges ever played - and one of the five most devastating losses.

Melissa and I decided Sandra was correct to leave the game. We all blasted her for giving up. But let's be real. There was no way an empty-pocketed Sandra was going to win a challenge against players with advantages to get back in the game. Obviously she wouldn't have won the one that actually took place. Further, Sandra would've had no footing even if she did get back in. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it's preposterous to envision a scenario in which Sandra could win a Final Tribal vote for $2 million. We're talking about a 10,000 to 1 parlay here. Is a 10,000 to 1 shot worth weeks of misery and boredom? I really don't blame her.


5. Doug

After dead-and-buried Eric, the rankings get very tight. I stared at the sheet for ten minutes before putting Doug here. Like many DFS lineups, it comes down to deciding on two-player switches. Doug has a two-player switch of Jeremy/Denise from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Tony. Jeremy is locked in like an expert air traffic controller on ritalin, but Denise has no allies, no clout and might've been toast this week if she hadn't won immunity. Tony doesn't have the traction necessary to garner votes at Final Tribal, but his history and demeanor suggest he's capable of mounting a charge.


4. Ben & Michal

This was a sneaky-awful episode for the Greenbergs. They didn't lose a player, but they didn't get one back either. They gained just two points in a points-bonanza episode. They fell further behind us, dropped into a tie with Baggins and can feel Doug's breath on their necks. But the worst part of it was what happened to Nick. He had no idea Wendell was the target and suddenly finds himself next in line to the slaughterhouse.


3. MoonBee

It was nice to take in the views from the summit for a week. But now we're in danger of falling all the way down the mountain. (Well, not all the way - Big Eric will be there to break our fall). Wendell's uninspiring run came to an end, or at least a hiatus, and Adam Squared continues to live in hot water. For a player who got every vote at Final Tribal and (I believe) set a record for the highest-scoring season in pool history, Adam sure makes it nervewracking. Nobody trusts him. He's physically unimpressive. He never has a stable alliance. He's constantly getting votes at Tribal.

But these are the ways of the New School. This is actually how Adam wants it. He'd rather go stag to the big dance. If you're not bound by an alliance, your vote is always available. Your strategy is malleable. You might actually earn more respect from your peers by breaking an alliance rather than keeping it. This season isn't looking promising for Adam, but he's wriggled his way out of worse jams before.


2. Baggins

So much for making fun of Bag's team. Wednesday night, Bag executed the most stunning turnaround this side of Joe Biden's Super Tuesday. Tyson vaulted back into the game, then slipped right back into a fresh voting block. Tony found himself on the right side of another alliance, Boston Rob earned another bushel of points and Sophie's teeth stopped chattering. It was an epic episode for Team Sanders.

Now take a look at this team. It's a two-player switch from our team, Bag's Tyson/Tony vs. our Adam/Ben. We have two Adams and a twelve-point cushion but I still think that's advantage: Bag. It's also a two player switch of Sophie/Tyson from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Nick. Again that looks like Bag has the nod. Bag's remaining players have no current correlation, however, so it might be difficult for him to get multiple players deep.


1. Phil

Somehow Phil lost a player and moved up the power rankings. He sits in fifth place, 23 points back, but he's got the best remaining players. Michele's prospects took another downturn, but Sarah and Jeremy live at the top of the food chain. We've heard some talk of a gritty blue-collar alliance including Jeremy, Sarah, Tony and Michele. If that alliance seizes control of the post-merge world, Phil will ride it to victory like a surfer who's discovered the perfect wave.

Winners At War: Episode 7

Some of you might not know why #Vytas is a punchline in this pool. Vytas first appeared on the Blood vs. Water season with his younger brother Aras, who'd already won a season. Vytas was posited as a recovered addict with a new lease on life. He arrived with a well-rounded game, but two characteristics really stood out: deep wisdom earned the hard way and sensational charisma. Vytas played impressively, escaping some nasty jams along the way. In one instance, a tribal shakeup marooned him on a new tribe with four players who'd been tribemates and hardly knew Vytas. They lost the challenge, but Vytas worked his magic, endeared himself to his new teammates and got them to vote someone else out. Ultimately Vytas was offed along with his Aras in a conspiracy led by eventual champion Tyson. But in one season Vytas managed to mend his damaged relationship with Aras and capture the hearts of millions of viewers.

One of those hearts was mine. I fell hard for Vytas. His performance on Blood vs. Water was one of the strongest I'd seen. I thought he played great, but even more, I just really liked the guy. I wanted to be his friend.

The next season was a fan favorites edition and Vytas got another shot. Though the entire cast was popular returning players, we ranked Vytas tops (ahead of Jeremy, who'd go on to sweep Final Tribal 10-0-0). We drew the first pick in the draft and snapped Vytas up. The draft was the same night as the season premiere. Everyone excitedly went home and watched the first episode. Vytas, the first pick in the draft, was voted out first.

He didn't get screwed. He wasn't ousted by a cunning alliance that targeted him as a power player. He didn't wind up on some tribe of unflappable pre-existing allies. Vytas got voted out because he was a giant douchebag from the moment he stepped off the boat.

I don't know what the hell happened to Vytas in the months between his two appearances. Maybe the fame got to his head. Maybe he went in with a different strategy because he didn't win the first time. Maybe he fell off the wagon. Who knows? The point is, Vytas was not the same person as he was on Blood vs. Water. Just because we get to know a player one season doesn't mean we know who that player will be in another.

Some of these players appear to be the same people they were when they won Survivor. Jeremy, Natalie and Ben come to mind. Some of these players are on the Edge because they played the same as the seasons they won - because they didn't change. Boston Rob, Tyson and Parvati are obvious examples. Some players are pretty similar, but improved. Sophie, Sarah and Nick have come back stronger than the seasons they won. And some players have regressed.

Wendell is this season's Vytas. For whatever reason (including the edit, perhaps) he's not the same player. He cruised through his initial season almost effortlessly. He was strong and sensible and likable. This season he's been none of those things. But he's still in.

Yul is not.

Though it's been fourteen years since he originally competed, Yul's game hasn't regressed. He's been just as impressive this time around. He's been strong, sensible and likable. He dominated a softer season, but has shown an adaptability to shark-infested waters. At last night's Tribal, Yul noted he'd already had to lie more than he did his entire first season. He's affected the game as much or more than any other player. It sure feels like he's played better than Wendell.

Survivor lies somewhere between a poker tournament and a Plinko board. It's really hard to predict what will happen. The tribal shakeups are as random as two cards off the deck. Yul's fate this week was decided by half of a second. Win that challenge and they make the merge. It's a completely different game for Yul.

We're subject to the edit of who these people are rather than who they really are out there. Even if we could judge their personalities and demeanor, it's really hard to correlate qualities of a person to their success in the game. We're not even the ones playing Plinko/Poker - we're the ones betting on it.

Standings

MoonBee - 70 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 61 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 11
Tony - 10
Danni - 1

Baggins - 52 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 3
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 47 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 10
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 16
Natalie - 2

Phil - 45 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 10
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 27 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 3
Ben - 13
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Just when you thought Eric's team couldn't get any worse, Sandra Squared literally waived the white flag for a tasty -3 X 2. She's officially out of the running for GOAT. Fortunately for Eric's chances of avoiding WOAT, Boston Rob redeemed him by somehow landing three separately-located tokens before six of his opponents could. Prediction: Rob gives at least one of his newly-acquired tokens to his wife. Rob now appears most likely to challenge Natalie in a battle royale to return from the Edge. Here's hoping it's Natalie - for the sake of the show and our team - who gets back in the mix.


5. Baggins

Since Bag's team isn't worth discussing, this is a good time to talk about the player nobody has - Kim. She's settled into an alliance with Jeremy and Tony. If that alliance falls on the wrong side of a tribal vote, those big guns would likely be targeted ahead of Kim. She's making a lot of drafters, especially Bag and Eric, look silly.


4. Doug

Yul was a better first-round pick than Wendell in every way but the only one that mattered. He deserved better. Survivor's a cruel game, though we can't feel too bad for the few who've won it before. Yul will go down as one of the game's most venerable players, no matter his efforts on the Edge.


3. Ben & Michal

Tony needs to step it up to have a chance. Yul talked about how nice he was, but it appeared during last week's Spy Shack his alliance doesn't really respect his game. Tony needs to embellish his social, physical and strategic resumés post-merge.


2. Phil

I noted last week that Michele and Wendell were likely to battle soon. It appears I was wrong. They had the opportunity to off one another but opted for Yul instead. It's tough to tell why. Was it because they have a stronger connection with each other than they had with Yul, despite their tension? Was it because Yul was viewed as a more formidable endgame threat? Was it ageism? I really don't know. It does appear the Michele/Wendell hook-up is back on - only in terms of voting. Phil has a shot if that duo persists, as the rest of his team is strong in spite of the Ethan grenade.


1. MoonBee

Three seasons ago - the season Adam ultimately led us to a blowout victory - Pickett infamously ranked us last to begin the season and only begrudgingly inched us up the rankings as our team persisted and others fell apart. I talked a lot of trash in the comments about our ranking. The thesis of the trash talk was math, not personality: our players might not have been impressive, but they were numerous.

Hopefully I made the same mistake this season. I've been hesitant to move us up the rankings despite the numbers advantages we have. But Yul's offing has made those numbers too hard to ignore. We have a nine-point edge on the second-place Greenbergs. We have a one-player advantage and 25 points on Phil. We have at least two players on everyone else.

But this perch is tenuous. Seemingly every player we had was mentioned as a voting target in the "Next Time On." Adam's removal would knock us down to three players. And Sophie is the only confidence-inspiring player on our team. The math is with us, but all it takes to change that is one random bounce down the Plinko board. 

Winners At War: Episode 6

DVR has changed my life. Almost everything I watch is on DVR. Even in the COVID Era, I still wait to watch my favorite shows (AKA Survivor) until the perfect moment. My friends know not to text me about sporting events until the next day. Sports, of course, are far less exciting if you know the outcome - and so is Survivor. While knowing the result of a Tribal Council is ruinous, I do enjoy getting a friendly text that simply reads "Did you watch Survivor?" That's a tip-off the episode is going to be dramatic.

Thursday I got the text from an obviously-excited Phil. He added that it was epic and "a game winning play was made." It did turn out to be a thrilling episode, but the significance Phil put on it was overblown. Denise was not in contention for the $2 million, and neither was the player she ousted. Sandra was the last vestige of the Old School, an elementary that's been relocated to the Edge of Extinction. Perhaps Denise's big move vaults her into the mix, but I'll explain later why her splash at Tribal revealed more desperation than competence.

The real season has yet to begin. Everything that's happened thus far is just table-setting. The old guard has been systematically quarantined to the Edge like a batch of South Korean COVID-positive patients. The defining alliances have yet to crystallize. The true contenders have yet to develop the resumés they'll present to Final Tribal. The true players are patiently waiting to shift gears until the old guard has been eradicated and the three tribes become one.

Standings

MoonBee - 57 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 15
Adam - 10
Adam - 10
Ben - 10
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 55 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 11
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

Doug - 43 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 14
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 42 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 15
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 39 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 11
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 26 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 5
Sandra - 5
Tyson - 2
Ben - 10
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Sandra's demise was delicious for those who view her as a villain. Sandra was done in by all the elements she's based her game on over the years: aggressively parsimonious play, nefarious alliances and manipulation of "weak" players. It was fitting to see her toppled by Denise, who hadn't made a peep this season. It was a compelling reminder that every castaway this season is an accomplished assassin. There are no weaklings in Winners At War.

With just Ben left, Eric's putrid squad currently checks in two points behind Pickett's all-time worst score. Without digging through the archives, I'll say that ancient season had fewer than six players per pool team. It probably had far fewer ways to score points. And it certainly didn't have a cast of players we could have evaluated in advance. Ben and Eric's numerous Edge players have just one mission left: extricating this squad from the Hall of Shame.


5. Bag

It kinda looked like Wendell was serious about selling Parvati his Tribal vote for her tokens. And it kinda looked like Parvati folded rather than shove her chips in. And Parvati definitely got voted out after folding. While players like Yul and Sarah have aged into their vintage eras, Parv doesn't have that juice anymore. Her game is predicated on a thorough understanding of the social fabric of the game, dictating manipulation. This Parv was never fully plugged-in socially, so her manipulative skills - while still honed - were less applicable.

After selling an idol nullifier to Parv for a token, Tyson said "my only option" was to purchase a food item, but it appeared he could have bought an advantage in the return challenge. His justification for the peanut butter - both nutritional and psychological - was convincing. But he gets a -1 for using it on a comfort item. And you know Natalie would never do this. She's hoarding hers for that big moment. With the way Natalie plays, she might even return to the game with an idol in her pocket.


4. Phil

Wendell's choppy season continues. Sooner or later his tension with Michele is going to cost one of them the iron price, and I'm guessing it's Wendell. He's come off a bit douchey and detached this season. 

I critiqued the Parvati pick, but Sarah in the third round is a pick we should all be ashamed of. She's one of the leading contenders thus far, and can earn consideration for true GOAT status with a win this season. She has a rare ability to mask intense intelligence. She's a calm, well-rounded player with a heightened scent for lies. With Parvati and Sandra out of the running, Sarah would become the true GOAT with a victor this season.


3. MoonBee

Last week I talked about how crucial it was "our" tribe didn't win the challenge. This week it did, so we soared up the standings. It was especially helpful for Adam, who admitted he was on the wrong side of the ballot if it went to a vote. He'll likely be toast if he heads back to Tribal before the Merge - which didn't appear to be happening based on the "Next Time On...SURVIVOR." Ben's stock is rising too, but we likely have only one player who can win the game (two if we count Natalie).
 
Sophie continues to crush. She's quietly dominated this season and is rapidly moving up the list of all time GOATs. Her game is strategically based, but she's a highly likable, social player who's stealthily awesome in challenges. Sophie plays Survivor like poker - she plays the opponent, not the cards. She knew Rob's playbook and dispatched him without fuss. The best part is the MoonBee can root fully for her because Bag's team is hot garbage.


2. Doug

"I may end up burning an idol that I wish I had down the road," Denise said before Tribal. Then she burned an idol on Jeremy that she'll wish she had down the road. Why? Maybe because Denise is desperate for allies. She hasn't gotten much of an edit this season, and while the backstabbing of Sandra was an Et tu, Brute? move, the extra idol for Jeremy was a setback in real life and in the pool. It cost Denise 5 points.

Yul has picked up right where he left off 14 years ago. He never seems to draw consideration for a vote despite his alpha appearance and obvious electability. Sandra's donation of her token his way shows the respect and admiration his peers have for him - I don't think they had much actual contact. Nick made a wise decision to go with the guys and oust Parvati. He's playing his game and it continues to be the right season for it. But it's Jeremy that makes Doug ultra-dangerous. He's quietly slipped right back into the middle of the stream after a rocky entrance.


1. Ben & Michal

The Greenbergs have a 2 v 2 swap against Doug - their Sarah & Tony vs. Doug's Jeremy & Denise. This feels like a thin advantage for Ben & Michal, thinner because Doug has the Edge edge with Natalie vs. Danni. But the Greenbergs are currently up twelve points on Doug, so they get the ranking nod for now.

Winners At War: Episodes 4 & 5

I studied abroad in New Zealand for the second semester of my junior year in college. Dunedin, New Zealand was an awesome place, but I had no social life. I should've joined the trekking club, but didn't. I played ultimate frisbee twice a week and I watched Survivor with my flatmates once a week. The TV in the flat got three channels and two of them mostly showed music videos. One of the channels played some American and Australian shows, including American Survivor - which happened to be the first All-Stars season. I know it was an awesome season - with Amber emerging victorious over more ballyhooed All-Stars - but I know my opinion was biased because watching Survivor was the thing I looked forward to the most those days.

When I lived in Addis Ababa, we would bus down to the Radisson once a week to pilfer the only free high-speed wifi in town. I would download the latest episode and boot up like 25 Wikipedia articles to read over the next seven days. I had plenty of friends and activities, but Survivor was still the thing I looked forward to the most each week. That season was dominated by Kim, who led my team to an easy victory.

Corona has dazed and confused me over the last couple days. Not literally. I don't have corona. I'm just befuddled. Suddenly my days are looking a lot different. I don't really know what I'm going to do for work and I don't really know what I'm going to do for fun. I'm kind of dependent on sports for both. It's a weird, anxious time void of norms.

Except Survivor. That hasn't changed. That's still gonna be on every Wednesday (though this week's was interrupted by an address from the Oval Office. Cliffs notes for those who didn't watch online like me and Melissa: Wendell and Michele used to date. It didn't end well and Michele made it sound like it didn't end well because of Wendell). So I don't really know what I'll be doing for pleasure (or for business) the next couple months, but I do know there will be a Survivor episode once a week. And it will probably be my favorite thing to look forward to, because there won't be as much to look forward to and because Survivor: Winners At War is fucking awesome.

We all knew this would be an exceptional season but it's exceeding expectations. Edge of Extinction was an annoying distraction the first time but this time it's added intrigue. The 20x Log Walk last week was powerful theater, even by Survivor standards. The omnipresent intensity of the competitors and the epic prize they're competing for has deepened the drama. This may well go down as the greatest season ever played - perhaps because it actually is, perhaps because America's boredom is going to inflate its enjoyment.

 Standings

Ben & Michal - 47
Yul - 10
Parvati - 11
Sarah - 6
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

MoonBee - 37
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 10
Adam - 5
Adam - 5
Ben - 5
Natalie - 2

Doug - 36
Yul - 10
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 8
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 35
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 10
Parvati - 11
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 32
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 6
Ethan - -3
Michele - 10
Amber - 1

Eric - 23
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 6
Sandra - 6
Tyson - 2
Ben - 5
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

1. Ben & Michal 

With all her allies fallen, Parvati is going to have to play her best game ever to get deep in this game. It's unlikely, but the Greenbergs may not need her. The rest of this roster is stacked with solid players. Yul and Sarah would be #1 and #2 in my power rankings at this point. I also love how Tony's managed to curtail his game to this point - assuming he can flick the switch to Crazy Tony after the merge, find idols and bamboozle opponents.


2. Doug

With a balanced roster of under-the-radar grinders and beastly alphas, Doug has four players who tend to hang around and garner points. Nick's humble doofus routine is well-suited to hide in this mafia battle until the dust settles and he can garnish his resumé. Jeremy has overcome the early setback of losing Natalie and could get her back to make a formidable team down the stretch. Speaking of Natalie, her performance has been as impressive as anyone's this season even though she got voted out the first episode. She's a stupendous competitor.


3. Moon & Melissa

Our team's prospects would be much brighter if not for the puzzle meltdown of the tribe with most of our players last challenge. Adam squared, Sophie and Ben are all on that team. At least it was Rob who went home. But if this team loses again, we'll likely be losing a player. And the NEXT TIME ON hinted two teams will be losing next week.

But it's not just the swing of points. We still have five players and are second in points but our players just aren't looking good right now. Sophie has impressed, but Adam has been nervewracking to own all season, Ben isn't playing with confidence and now Wendell is in hot water.


4. Phil

Phil wound up with exes Michele and Wendell, who appear to be rather negatively correlated. They were playing solid games, but this shakeup has cast doubt on the chances of both. Phil also has Jeremy and Sarah, so cheerful prospects remain for the 40 year-old.


5. Bag

Boston Rob's exit was likely heavily edited to generate tribal intrigue. Admittedly, the edit was effective. I was on the edge of the couch wondering if Sophie would play her idol. Melissa and I discussed what a perfect situation this was for Sarah's Steal-A-Vote. And it was compelling theater to watch the Godfather run a communication suppression scheme like an authoritarian president. But it didn't work and it didn't appear close to working. Adam and Ben promptly voted Rob out and there wasn't really evidence they considered otherwise. When the votes were read, Melissa and I felt confident our strategy of avoiding power legends like Rob was correct - and Baggins was left drawing nearly dead.


6. Eric

Big Eric was also foolish enough to draft Rob in the first round. I don't think Eric intentionally targeted power legends - I believe his strategy was more like "Oh, I've heard of them!" - but obviously it hasn't worked. If Sandra follows the route pioneered by Amber, Tyson and Rob, Big Eric could post one of the worst scores ever recorded in this pool.