Winners At War: Finale

 

Survivor wrapped up its thrilling 40th season with a stirring finale, featuring the gladiatorial return of long-exiled Natalie and a number of riveting challenges and teary exits. The epic three hour finale climaxed in a decisive fire-making challenge with a razor-thin margin of victory between two of Survivor's greatest and most intimate combatants. The winner of that challenge, Tony, received three fourths of the votes the next day at Final Tribal, cementing his legacy as one of the greatest castaways ever to play the game. We'll examine that legacy in a moment, but first let's take a look at final pool standings and the castaways Tony overcame in the finale.

Final Standings

1. Ben & Michal - 250 points
Yul - 19
Parvati - 26
Sarah - 33
Nick - 40
Tony - 124
Danni - 8

2. Doug - 222 points
Yul - 19
Jeremy - 23
Nick - 40
Ethan - 2
Denise - 41
Natalie - 97

3. MoonBee - 221 points
Wendell - 19
Sophie - 24
Adam - 19
Adam - 19
Ben - 43
Natalie - 97

4. Baggins - 215 points
Boston Rob - 16
Sophie - 24
Parvati - 26
Tyson - 20
Tony - 124
Amber - 5

5. Phil - 138 points
Wendell - 19
Jeremy - 23
Sarah - 33
Ethan - 2
Michele - 56
Amber - 5

6. Eric - 54 points
Boston Rob - 16
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 20
Ben - 43
Danni - 8

The Final Six

Denise augmented a venerable reputation with her unforgettable eradication of Sandra, a spectacularly-satisfying backstabbing I believed was unnecessarily heavy-handed. Denise goes home with that feather forever in her cap plus the knowledge she hung deep into the game's most competitive season and busted out only because four of her five opponents held idols. She's got a title belt stuffed in that cap too, from a season she attended every tribal council.

Ben trampled a weak cast with relentless gritty play his first season. Then he took advantage of a late-game twist conspiracy theorists and Ben Greenberg believe was corruptly planted to give him opportunity he normally wouldn't have had and offer a more compelling Final Tribal. In any case, Ben was shrewder than most or all of his competitors that season and few of them this season. Some have speculated his most memorable moment this season - offering his own head to Sarah as a resumé-builder - occurred only because Ben correctly self-assessed he had no chance of winning a final vote. It may have been his last chance at redemption - and he seized it.

Would Sarah have beaten Natalie and Michele if her flame had cauterized the rope before Tony's? I believe so. By that point, Sarah had keenly spotlighted her struggle to receive credit for outplaying and outwitting in a misogynistic world. The jury wasn't particularly impressed with Natalie's monolithic Edge game or Michele's act of survival, plus Tony's presence on it would surely have tilted respect Sarah's way. If her flame had burned through first - and it was ohsoclose - the GOAT conversation would be revolving around Sarah instead of Tony.

It was unfortunate and unbecoming for Michele to go without a vote at Final Tribal. Ironically, her grand anxiety - playing an effective game and earning no respect for it - was realized at that voteless Tribal. Certainly her performance justified more. It wasn't powerful or flashy, but scrappy and chameleonic. Michele was in such hot water all game her goal was typically to survive the next vote rather than burnish her extracurriculars. By the time she washed up at Final Tribal, her two competitors had developed resumés - one physical, one all-around - too impeccable to dent. Michele isn't in the GOAT conversation, but can hold her head high as one of the very few to win one season and make Final Tribal another.

Natalie did prove there was more to her game than physicality when she won San Juan Del Sur. We're not talking about Ozzy here. But the physical element is what Natalie will be remembered for - because the fitness and athleticism she displayed this season was transcendent but also because her social game faltered. I don't recall the events that got Natalie voted off first this season - that feels like ancient history - but she did get voted off first. And when she got back in the "real game", she didn't do enough to accentuate her physical accomplishments. Sure, she linked up with Michele to topple the Ben/Sarah/Tony alliance, but anyone with two idols could've pulled that off. As Rob mentioned at Final Tribal, she isolated the fellow Edge players too severely to earn all their votes. She pitted Sarah against Tony in firemaking rather than attempt to slay the dragon herself, claiming she wanted the alliance to destroy itself and that she'd already done enough to earn votes.  Ultimately most sided with Tony - despite spending more of their time with Natalie. She'll go down as a legendary physical player with an ordinary social game.

Tony overwhelmed his competition the first season he played with psychotic, uncompromising aggression. His game was raw and villainous. He picked up where he left off for Game Changers and was promptly voted out first. That early exit illuminated a lightbulb over Tony's head: the maniac style is not appropriate for many Survivor situations, particularly for pre-targeted former winners. The best players can access maniacism but don't reside in it. Tony told everyone he was flipping the switch this season and did it. We spent the first two thirds of the season wondering if Tony would ever switch gears back towards aggression. It may be hard to remember now, but the traits Tony displayed for the bulk of this season were modesty, whimsicality and deference.

Then, when it came time, he flipped the switch. Starting with a masterful takedown of the opposition leader, Tony was a tour de force down the stretch. He did it all those last few episodes, tactfully outwitting, outplaying and outlasting his opponents. Like a great actor, poker player or bicycle racer, Tony's greatest strength was ultimately revealed to be his mastery of diverse and incongruent skills. Tony has come a long way in his Survivor career - as a player and as a human being. He's earned his title as the King of Survivor.

Winners At War: Episodes 12 & 13

Since its explosively popular debut season in the summer of 2000, Survivor has continually evolved and innovated. It's gone through dozens of motifs, gimmicks and rule-changes. It's hard to fathom now, but immunity idols didn't even exist until its eleventh season. Viewers have received most of these innovations warmly. But the double-elimination "Edge of Extinction" concept pioneered in season 38 has been more divisive. Many fans feel this twist is too radical. Critics feel it warps the game into something it shouldn't be, rewards players for the wrong accomplishments and diminishes the dramatic finality of a vote-out.

I'm not a big fan of it personally. The prospect of instant mortality drives the tension in the game. Knowing anyone can die at any moment isn't just a George R.R. Martin parlor trick. It's automatic drama. Although a castaway's chances of winning are reduced if they go to the Edge, Chris has already shown it's not a death sentence.

This season, all castaways are eligible for the jury. Many of those on the Edge have been living together for weeks, developing intimacy and respect they cannot for players they see talk to Jeff Probst once every few days. A telling example came late this week, with Natalie gifting Tyson an idol. Coming into the game, it appeared Jeremy was her strongest connection. But after a few weeks on the Edge, it became Tyson.

Soon the jury will convene at Final Tribal and vote on a winner. Jurors like Amber and Danni will be weighing the personal relationships they've made on the Edge against the machinations they've heard described by people they've spent little time with. Jurors shouldn't be faulted to begin with, and it will be particularly hard to fault this group for choosing a castaway they've bled with on the Edge over castaways whose conquests they've only heard described.

The players most likely to benefit from this season's format appear to be Natalie and Tyson. Both are physical players who possess advantages (Natalie has three) that will help them in the return challenge and idols that will notch them an additional step should they return to "the real game." And both have earned the respect of many who will be casting the final votes.

The format leaves the door open for extraordinary comebacks in our pool. Ben & Michal are the favorites, but five of the six teams have a conceivable chance heading into the finale. Only Big Eric is drawing dead, and he was drawing dead before the draft.

Standings

A few notes:

• I regularly screw up while tabulating these point totals. Last week I made at least three mistakes! Big thanks to Doug for meticulously double-checking and explaining my errors every week. Who knows how many mistakes I made this week? (Doug does). These current numbers may be off.
• We've been using the classic scoring system centered around making the jury even though everybody makes the jury this season. The system gives 0 points to the first player eliminated before the jury, negatively descending points to those eliminated before them, and positively ascending points to those eliminated after. Ethan got -4 for his "elimination" way back when; each subsequently eliminated player has received one more point. Nick got 6 points for his elimination last episode. I have no idea or opinion if this was the right way to score this season. It's not too late to change. Leave a comment if you disagree with how we've done it thus far.
• Points got wild in the latest episode, with Natalie and Nick garnering eight each for their disadvantage transaction. That number doesn't feel appropriate for such a minor event. Natalie now has more points than anyone in "the real game" except Tony. Still, I like the scoring system we've used for tokens, and do feel like Natalie has played a game deserving of grande fantasy points. We'll discuss changing the scoring in further seasons if tokens continue to be a factor.

Ben & Michal - 134 points
Yul - 15
Parvati - 22
Sarah - 19
Nick - 36
Tony - 38
Danni - 4

Doug - 128 points
Yul - 15
Jeremy - 19
Nick - 36
Ethan - -2
Denise - 29
Natalie - 31

MoonBee - 116 points
Wendell - 15
Sophie - 20
Adam - 15
Adam - 15
Ben - 20
Natalie - 31

Baggins - 107 points
Boston Rob - 12
Sophie - 20
Parvati - 22
Tyson - 14
Tony - 38
Amber - 1

Phil - 82 points
Wendell - 15
Jeremy - 19
Sarah - 19
Ethan - -2
Michele - 30
Amber - 1

Eric - 54 points
Boston Rob - 12
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 14
Ben - 20
Danni - 4

Power Rankings

6. Eric

I believe we've seen the last of Boston Rob on Survivor, at least for several years. Perhaps he and/or Sandra could return for a "Geriatrics vs. Youths" season or something eventually. We'll also likely never see Amber again, though I did enjoy her rare confessionals. Danni didn't do anything to justify a return. Ethan is done. Among other old-schoolers, I think Tyson, Parvati, Yul and Kim have the best shot at getting back on. Tyson fills the "crusty mean veteran with a heart of gold" role with a little more panache than Rob at this point. Parvati played well enough to maintain her reputation as an all-timer. Yul played impressively before an unfortunate numbers squeeze and Kim reminded viewers of the form she displayed in one of the hardest dominations in Survivor history.

We won't miss Wendell. Denise is done. Michele has had thirty minutes of fame when she'd get only fifteen in most permutations. Everyone's sick of Ben, including his tribemates. But there are a number of new-schoolers we may see again. Tony is an easy choice, sure to entertain. I think he comes back and gets voted off in the first three episodes. Natalie's domination on the Edge - coupled with the misfortune of playing the whole season on the Edge - gives her the edge, no pun intended. Sarah is a great player, but it feels like we've seen everything she has to offer at this point. Nick is articulate and scrappy, but not very interesting or exciting. Nobody will miss him. Adam is more likely to get back on, just because he packages his quotes so conveniently for the editors. Sophie's reputation was sullied by busting out with an idol in her bag, but she's still a better player than Adam or Nick and even more articulate.

Of course, the one player who will definitely come back if they want is the champion. I believe that player will loosely be regarded as the greatest to ever play the game. There will be plenty of debate, and as I mentioned in the last blog the Survivor sample size is meaningless. But someone has to be considered the GOAT and the only other someone to have won twice tarnished her reputation this season.


5. Phil

Phil has lingered in the top half of the power rankings for the better part of two months due to what DFS players call "PMR" - player minutes remaining. But as DFS players know all too well, PMR doesn't insure anything. Your players have to actually score fantasy points, and Phil's mostly haven't. Unless one of his Edge residents surprisingly returns, Phil will need Michele to outscore Tony by 52 points in the finale to win. The Denver Nuggets are more likely than Michele to score 52 points next week.


4. Baggins

Bag still has Tony, which is nice except the Greenbergs have him too and he trails them by 27 heading into the finale with one fewer player. Still, Bag's candle flickers. He'll need someone from the Edge to come back and outscore Sarah by 27. In other words, Bag will need Rob, Sophie, Parvati, Tyson or Amber to win the $2 million. Tyson appears most likely to do so from this group, with the others having little chance combined.


3. MoonBee

Ben has made the final episode and outlasted every other player on our team and I'm still disappointed we drafted him. I remembered Ben running roughshod over some weak competition his season before the controversial finale some believe was rigged, including the other Ben in this pool. If the producers did indeed "rig" that season, they must be regretting it - because Survivor Ben has done little to endear himself to anyone this season. Our dim prospects of winning the pool lie with Survivor Ben, even though I think Natalie actually has a better shot of winning the $2 million. Still, I won't really be rooting for the guy on Wednesday night. Prospective winners would be wise to bring him to Final Tribal.


2. Doug

At first glance it might appear Doug needs Denise to outscore Sarah and Tony by six points in the finale to win, but his best hope is Natalie. There's been some half-hearted, half-honest threat talk about Denise the Queenslayer, but she'd never get enough final votes to win. Natalie could.


1. Ben & Michal

Like a couple of trilogy superheroes who fight each other the first two movies and join forces in the finale, Sarah and Tony have learned their powers are greater together than in opposition. Surely they're two of the greatest to play the game; WaW's finale may coronate one of the two atop the all-time Survivor throne.

The Greenbergs ride into the finale with a healthy advantage. They have the most points. They have two players "left", tied with Phil for most. The players they have left are the two favorites. But there are still a million permutations left, a whole deck of river cards that will define the most anticipated season of Survivor.