The drama meter rose a couple notches this week. Tyson edged Boston Rob in one of the most exciting challenges in Survivor history and returned to the game. The tribes merged. Sophie almost froze to death. Intrigue deepened when we learned everyone is part of the jury. Adam survived another close shave and Wendell was finally sent packing. It was an exciting episode and likely a harbinger for a thrilling stretch run.
Standings
MoonBee - 75 points
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Ben & Michal - 63 points
Sarah - 15
Nick - 12
Tony - 10
Baggins - 63 points
Sophie - 19
Tyson - 9
Tony - 10
Doug - 61 points
Jeremy - 14
Nick - 12
Denise - 20
Phil - 52 points
Jeremy - 14
Sarah - 15
Michele - 13
Eric - 39 points
Tyson - 9
Ben - 13
Power Rankings
6. Eric
Big Eric is off the hook. With Rob accumulating points faster than anyone on any island and Tyson returning to the game, Eric's team won't go down in infamy as the worst ever assembled. The Survivor Gods punished Rob for claiming he was the GOAT last week with an excruciatingly close and critical challenge loss. That was one the five most exciting challenges ever played - and one of the five most devastating losses.
Melissa and I decided Sandra was correct to leave the game. We all blasted her for giving up. But let's be real. There was no way an empty-pocketed Sandra was going to win a challenge against players with advantages to get back in the game. Obviously she wouldn't have won the one that actually took place. Further, Sandra would've had no footing even if she did get back in. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it's preposterous to envision a scenario in which Sandra could win a Final Tribal vote for $2 million. We're talking about a 10,000 to 1 parlay here. Is a 10,000 to 1 shot worth weeks of misery and boredom? I really don't blame her.
5. Doug
After dead-and-buried Eric, the rankings get very tight. I stared at the sheet for ten minutes before putting Doug here. Like many DFS lineups, it comes down to deciding on two-player switches. Doug has a two-player switch of Jeremy/Denise from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Tony. Jeremy is locked in like an expert air traffic controller on ritalin, but Denise has no allies, no clout and might've been toast this week if she hadn't won immunity. Tony doesn't have the traction necessary to garner votes at Final Tribal, but his history and demeanor suggest he's capable of mounting a charge.
4. Ben & Michal
This was a sneaky-awful episode for the Greenbergs. They didn't lose a player, but they didn't get one back either. They gained just two points in a points-bonanza episode. They fell further behind us, dropped into a tie with Baggins and can feel Doug's breath on their necks. But the worst part of it was what happened to Nick. He had no idea Wendell was the target and suddenly finds himself next in line to the slaughterhouse.
3. MoonBee
It was nice to take in the views from the summit for a week. But now we're in danger of falling all the way down the mountain. (Well, not all the way - Big Eric will be there to break our fall). Wendell's uninspiring run came to an end, or at least a hiatus, and Adam Squared continues to live in hot water. For a player who got every vote at Final Tribal and (I believe) set a record for the highest-scoring season in pool history, Adam sure makes it nervewracking. Nobody trusts him. He's physically unimpressive. He never has a stable alliance. He's constantly getting votes at Tribal.
But these are the ways of the New School. This is actually how Adam wants it. He'd rather go stag to the big dance. If you're not bound by an alliance, your vote is always available. Your strategy is malleable. You might actually earn more respect from your peers by breaking an alliance rather than keeping it. This season isn't looking promising for Adam, but he's wriggled his way out of worse jams before.
2. Baggins
So much for making fun of Bag's team. Wednesday night, Bag executed the most stunning turnaround this side of Joe Biden's Super Tuesday. Tyson vaulted back into the game, then slipped right back into a fresh voting block. Tony found himself on the right side of another alliance, Boston Rob earned another bushel of points and Sophie's teeth stopped chattering. It was an epic episode for Team Sanders.
Now take a look at this team. It's a two-player switch from our team, Bag's Tyson/Tony vs. our Adam/Ben. We have two Adams and a twelve-point cushion but I still think that's advantage: Bag. It's also a two player switch of Sophie/Tyson from Ben & Michal's Sarah/Nick. Again that looks like Bag has the nod. Bag's remaining players have no current correlation, however, so it might be difficult for him to get multiple players deep.
1. Phil
Somehow Phil lost a player and moved up the power rankings. He sits in fifth place, 23 points back, but he's got the best remaining players. Michele's prospects took another downturn, but Sarah and Jeremy live at the top of the food chain. We've heard some talk of a gritty blue-collar alliance including Jeremy, Sarah, Tony and Michele. If that alliance seizes control of the post-merge world, Phil will ride it to victory like a surfer who's discovered the perfect wave.
4 comments:
It's convenient how you failed to mention that I'm only 13 points out of second place and 36 points of first. VERY CONVENIENT!
Thomas, thanks for the analysis. Curious how you were planning on scoring the jury points now that we know more about that. Traditionally, the first player to make the jury gets +10 points once we know when the jury starts. The player that joins the jury the next week gets +11, and so on. The last player not to make the Jury gets 0 points. The 2nd to last gets -1, and so on. We designed in a minimum of a 10 point difference for making the jury or not based on jury players at least still having an influence on the game vs not if you don't make the jury. Further in the game, gets better. Further away from the jury gets worse.
This season is different because of all players but Sandra (and anyone else that gives up on exile), will make the jury. This likely gives us up to 16 jury members if we get a final 3. If your player makes the final 3 they automatically get 20 points, plus 5 for every vote they receive. Say that player gets no votes, they would get 20 and the last jury member could be getting 25 points if we keep the range the same. This for sure doesn't make sense, does it. A final tribal player should get more than any jury member.
Any thoughts on how to score jury points, but how to also keep the big difference between being a part of the jury vs not included at all? How are you currently scoring this?
Michal, has this come up in the past?
I did nothing different as far as scoring the latest episode.
I'd like to view another episode or two - and hopefully acquire more information on how this will play out - before deciding on how to score players this season. But it's something we should be discussing now. I'll bring it up in the next blog and hopefully everyone will comment on what they think is appropriate.
Sounds great, Tom! Thanks!
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