Winners At War: Episode 7

Some of you might not know why #Vytas is a punchline in this pool. Vytas first appeared on the Blood vs. Water season with his younger brother Aras, who'd already won a season. Vytas was posited as a recovered addict with a new lease on life. He arrived with a well-rounded game, but two characteristics really stood out: deep wisdom earned the hard way and sensational charisma. Vytas played impressively, escaping some nasty jams along the way. In one instance, a tribal shakeup marooned him on a new tribe with four players who'd been tribemates and hardly knew Vytas. They lost the challenge, but Vytas worked his magic, endeared himself to his new teammates and got them to vote someone else out. Ultimately Vytas was offed along with his Aras in a conspiracy led by eventual champion Tyson. But in one season Vytas managed to mend his damaged relationship with Aras and capture the hearts of millions of viewers.

One of those hearts was mine. I fell hard for Vytas. His performance on Blood vs. Water was one of the strongest I'd seen. I thought he played great, but even more, I just really liked the guy. I wanted to be his friend.

The next season was a fan favorites edition and Vytas got another shot. Though the entire cast was popular returning players, we ranked Vytas tops (ahead of Jeremy, who'd go on to sweep Final Tribal 10-0-0). We drew the first pick in the draft and snapped Vytas up. The draft was the same night as the season premiere. Everyone excitedly went home and watched the first episode. Vytas, the first pick in the draft, was voted out first.

He didn't get screwed. He wasn't ousted by a cunning alliance that targeted him as a power player. He didn't wind up on some tribe of unflappable pre-existing allies. Vytas got voted out because he was a giant douchebag from the moment he stepped off the boat.

I don't know what the hell happened to Vytas in the months between his two appearances. Maybe the fame got to his head. Maybe he went in with a different strategy because he didn't win the first time. Maybe he fell off the wagon. Who knows? The point is, Vytas was not the same person as he was on Blood vs. Water. Just because we get to know a player one season doesn't mean we know who that player will be in another.

Some of these players appear to be the same people they were when they won Survivor. Jeremy, Natalie and Ben come to mind. Some of these players are on the Edge because they played the same as the seasons they won - because they didn't change. Boston Rob, Tyson and Parvati are obvious examples. Some players are pretty similar, but improved. Sophie, Sarah and Nick have come back stronger than the seasons they won. And some players have regressed.

Wendell is this season's Vytas. For whatever reason (including the edit, perhaps) he's not the same player. He cruised through his initial season almost effortlessly. He was strong and sensible and likable. This season he's been none of those things. But he's still in.

Yul is not.

Though it's been fourteen years since he originally competed, Yul's game hasn't regressed. He's been just as impressive this time around. He's been strong, sensible and likable. He dominated a softer season, but has shown an adaptability to shark-infested waters. At last night's Tribal, Yul noted he'd already had to lie more than he did his entire first season. He's affected the game as much or more than any other player. It sure feels like he's played better than Wendell.

Survivor lies somewhere between a poker tournament and a Plinko board. It's really hard to predict what will happen. The tribal shakeups are as random as two cards off the deck. Yul's fate this week was decided by half of a second. Win that challenge and they make the merge. It's a completely different game for Yul.

We're subject to the edit of who these people are rather than who they really are out there. Even if we could judge their personalities and demeanor, it's really hard to correlate qualities of a person to their success in the game. We're not even the ones playing Plinko/Poker - we're the ones betting on it.

Standings

MoonBee - 70 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 61 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 11
Tony - 10
Danni - 1

Baggins - 52 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 3
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 47 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 10
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 16
Natalie - 2

Phil - 45 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 10
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 27 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 3
Ben - 13
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Just when you thought Eric's team couldn't get any worse, Sandra Squared literally waived the white flag for a tasty -3 X 2. She's officially out of the running for GOAT. Fortunately for Eric's chances of avoiding WOAT, Boston Rob redeemed him by somehow landing three separately-located tokens before six of his opponents could. Prediction: Rob gives at least one of his newly-acquired tokens to his wife. Rob now appears most likely to challenge Natalie in a battle royale to return from the Edge. Here's hoping it's Natalie - for the sake of the show and our team - who gets back in the mix.


5. Baggins

Since Bag's team isn't worth discussing, this is a good time to talk about the player nobody has - Kim. She's settled into an alliance with Jeremy and Tony. If that alliance falls on the wrong side of a tribal vote, those big guns would likely be targeted ahead of Kim. She's making a lot of drafters, especially Bag and Eric, look silly.


4. Doug

Yul was a better first-round pick than Wendell in every way but the only one that mattered. He deserved better. Survivor's a cruel game, though we can't feel too bad for the few who've won it before. Yul will go down as one of the game's most venerable players, no matter his efforts on the Edge.


3. Ben & Michal

Tony needs to step it up to have a chance. Yul talked about how nice he was, but it appeared during last week's Spy Shack his alliance doesn't really respect his game. Tony needs to embellish his social, physical and strategic resumés post-merge.


2. Phil

I noted last week that Michele and Wendell were likely to battle soon. It appears I was wrong. They had the opportunity to off one another but opted for Yul instead. It's tough to tell why. Was it because they have a stronger connection with each other than they had with Yul, despite their tension? Was it because Yul was viewed as a more formidable endgame threat? Was it ageism? I really don't know. It does appear the Michele/Wendell hook-up is back on - only in terms of voting. Phil has a shot if that duo persists, as the rest of his team is strong in spite of the Ethan grenade.


1. MoonBee

Three seasons ago - the season Adam ultimately led us to a blowout victory - Pickett infamously ranked us last to begin the season and only begrudgingly inched us up the rankings as our team persisted and others fell apart. I talked a lot of trash in the comments about our ranking. The thesis of the trash talk was math, not personality: our players might not have been impressive, but they were numerous.

Hopefully I made the same mistake this season. I've been hesitant to move us up the rankings despite the numbers advantages we have. But Yul's offing has made those numbers too hard to ignore. We have a nine-point edge on the second-place Greenbergs. We have a one-player advantage and 25 points on Phil. We have at least two players on everyone else.

But this perch is tenuous. Seemingly every player we had was mentioned as a voting target in the "Next Time On." Adam's removal would knock us down to three players. And Sophie is the only confidence-inspiring player on our team. The math is with us, but all it takes to change that is one random bounce down the Plinko board.