DVR has changed my life. Almost everything I watch is on DVR. Even in the COVID Era, I still wait to watch my favorite shows (AKA Survivor) until the perfect moment. My friends know not to text me about sporting events until the next day. Sports, of course, are far less exciting if you know the outcome - and so is Survivor. While knowing the result of a Tribal Council is ruinous, I do enjoy getting a friendly text that simply reads "Did you watch Survivor?" That's a tip-off the episode is going to be dramatic.
Thursday I got the text from an obviously-excited Phil. He added that it was epic and "a game winning play was made." It did turn out to be a thrilling episode, but the significance Phil put on it was overblown. Denise was not in contention for the $2 million, and neither was the player she ousted. Sandra was the last vestige of the Old School, an elementary that's been relocated to the Edge of Extinction. Perhaps Denise's big move vaults her into the mix, but I'll explain later why her splash at Tribal revealed more desperation than competence.
The real season has yet to begin. Everything that's happened thus far is just table-setting. The old guard has been systematically quarantined to the Edge like a batch of South Korean COVID-positive patients. The defining alliances have yet to crystallize. The true contenders have yet to develop the resumés they'll present to Final Tribal. The true players are patiently waiting to shift gears until the old guard has been eradicated and the three tribes become one.
Standings
MoonBee - 57 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 15
Adam - 10
Adam - 10
Ben - 10
Ben & Michal - 55 points
Yul - 11
Sarah - 11
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Doug - 43 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Denise - 14
Baggins - 42 points
Sophie - 15
Tony - 8
Phil - 39 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 11
Michele - 12
Eric - 26 points
Ben - 10
Power Rankings
6. Eric
Sandra's demise was delicious for those who view her as a villain. Sandra was done in by all the elements she's based her game on over the years: aggressively parsimonious play, nefarious alliances and manipulation of "weak" players. It was fitting to see her toppled by Denise, who hadn't made a peep this season. It was a compelling reminder that every castaway this season is an accomplished assassin. There are no weaklings in Winners At War.
With just Ben left, Eric's putrid squad currently checks in two points behind Pickett's all-time worst score. Without digging through the archives, I'll say that ancient season had fewer than six players per pool team. It probably had far fewer ways to score points. And it certainly didn't have a cast of players we could have evaluated in advance. Ben and Eric's numerous Edge players have just one mission left: extricating this squad from the Hall of Shame.
5. Bag
It kinda looked like Wendell was serious about selling Parvati his Tribal vote for her tokens. And it kinda looked like Parvati folded rather than shove her chips in. And Parvati definitely got voted out after folding. While players like Yul and Sarah have aged into their vintage eras, Parv doesn't have that juice anymore. Her game is predicated on a thorough understanding of the social fabric of the game, dictating manipulation. This Parv was never fully plugged-in socially, so her manipulative skills - while still honed - were less applicable.
After selling an idol nullifier to Parv for a token, Tyson said "my only option" was to purchase a food item, but it appeared he could have bought an advantage in the return challenge. His justification for the peanut butter - both nutritional and psychological - was convincing. But he gets a -1 for using it on a comfort item. And you know Natalie would never do this. She's hoarding hers for that big moment. With the way Natalie plays, she might even return to the game with an idol in her pocket.
4. Phil
Wendell's choppy season continues. Sooner or later his tension with Michele is going to cost one of them the iron price, and I'm guessing it's Wendell. He's come off a bit douchey and detached this season.
I critiqued the Parvati pick, but Sarah in the third round is a pick we should all be ashamed of. She's one of the leading contenders thus far, and can earn consideration for true GOAT status with a win this season. She has a rare ability to mask intense intelligence. She's a calm, well-rounded player with a heightened scent for lies. With Parvati and Sandra out of the running, Sarah would become the true GOAT with a victor this season.
3. MoonBee
Last week I talked about how crucial it was "our" tribe didn't win the challenge. This week it did, so we soared up the standings. It was especially helpful for Adam, who admitted he was on the wrong side of the ballot if it went to a vote. He'll likely be toast if he heads back to Tribal before the Merge - which didn't appear to be happening based on the "Next Time On...SURVIVOR." Ben's stock is rising too, but we likely have only one player who can win the game (two if we count Natalie).
Sophie continues to crush. She's quietly dominated this season and is rapidly moving up the list of all time GOATs. Her game is strategically based, but she's a highly likable, social player who's stealthily awesome in challenges. Sophie plays Survivor like poker - she plays the opponent, not the cards. She knew Rob's playbook and dispatched him without fuss. The best part is the MoonBee can root fully for her because Bag's team is hot garbage.
2. Doug
"I may end up burning an idol that I wish I had down the road," Denise said before Tribal. Then she burned an idol on Jeremy that she'll wish she had down the road. Why? Maybe because Denise is desperate for allies. She hasn't gotten much of an edit this season, and while the backstabbing of Sandra was an Et tu, Brute? move, the extra idol for Jeremy was a setback in real life and in the pool. It cost Denise 5 points.
Yul has picked up right where he left off 14 years ago. He never seems to draw consideration for a vote despite his alpha appearance and obvious electability. Sandra's donation of her token his way shows the respect and admiration his peers have for him - I don't think they had much actual contact. Nick made a wise decision to go with the guys and oust Parvati. He's playing his game and it continues to be the right season for it. But it's Jeremy that makes Doug ultra-dangerous. He's quietly slipped right back into the middle of the stream after a rocky entrance.
1. Ben & Michal
The Greenbergs have a 2 v 2 swap against Doug - their Sarah & Tony vs. Doug's Jeremy & Denise. This feels like a thin advantage for Ben & Michal, thinner because Doug has the Edge edge with Natalie vs. Danni. But the Greenbergs are currently up twelve points on Doug, so they get the ranking nod for now.
2 comments:
Let's not overlook the fact that I'm only 13 points behind Phil and I have a LARGE squad on the Edge of Extinction.
I thought that episode was a great preview of what is to hopefully come. Some people are falsely comfortable and some are realizing their true place in the current game (and are adjusting and scheming accordingly). Overconfidence will be claiming quite a few more people before this is over.
While I agree, the really crafty game-play won't happen until the merge, I really respect Denise's move. The double-cross of Sandra to only have to use one fire-token for her idol was particularly amazing as Sandra named everyone at Tribal with her as a threat, except Denise. So juicy.
While Denise's 2nd idol play wasn't necessary in the end, it made sense to me why she used it. She knows she is close to the merge and the targets will shift if she can make it there. If she has to survive one more vote, she needs an ally. Pulling Jeremy back over is likely her only choice and this was a gesture to accomplish that. Going into one more vote with this tribe and simply getting voted out after all the other effort isn't appealing and Denise is less likely to need an idol immediately after the merge. Now she is hoping Jeremy and her will get to choose between Kim and Tony, if it comes to that. I liked the double idol play to at least bring this option into contention, and pad her resume.
One other larger aspect of the game that I think we need to discuss, as if will have a larger difference when it comes down to scoring, is the possibility that ALL players this season might make up the Jury. I don't know how they did it with last Exile Island, but I could see them throwing this curveball at us. Our current points system isn't set up for that and would need to be adjusted? Anyone remember how the jury worked last time there was an exile?
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