Winners At War: The Draft & Episode 3

Michal has ceded control of the blog to me. She's caught in a maelstrom of coronavirus concerns, toddlers and grad school. So it's understandable. It feels wrong to see someone else running the pool for the most anticipated season in Survivor history, but I'm taking the responsibility seriously. I watched the preview trailer five times in a row when it debuted on last season's reunion special. I'm beyond fired up for the season. I'll do my best.

Speaking of last season, Michal and the blog, we never got a final post on that one. I note this because 1) Phil has mentioned like four teams that his team surged in the finale and he wanted to see where they wound up (add it up yourself if you're so desperate to know) 2) the Greenbergs made fun of me for never posting a Bachelor finale blog one forgettable season and 3) Bag actually won the pool and that should be celebrated with the same surprise and amazement we reserve for sightings of Halley's Comet.

Here's how this is going to work: I'm generally going to lead the blog off with a graphic of the Standings. Then I'm going to power rank the teams, wherein I'll talk about some of what went down in the last episode. I'm gonna do my best to score the players each episode, but I'm probably going to make mistakes. Some points I'll just miss and some I won't understand properly. Fortunately responsible Doug is double-checking and interpreting these points. He even did so unprompted last night. Cheers Doug! I also recommend tracking the points yourself if you want to make sure your players are receiving all the points they should.

A few notes on points:

• I gave Ethan -3 for his "finish" yesterday. My understanding is that players are supposed to get -1 pts for each spot short of the jury they fall. Since we don't yet know how many players will make the jury, this -3 is a placeholder. When we actually know, I'll go back and give players their true negative score.
• This is further complicated by the Edge of Extinction. I propose we consider Edge players to be "voted out." So while a player like Ethan is technically still alive, he's going to get a -3 for getting voted out.
• Ethan got an additional -1 for getting voted out before a dreg. We have one true Dreg this season: Kim (an excellent, balanced player who should have been drafted twice, let alone once). Kim is going to haunt us all. Any player voted out before her is going to get saddled with a negative.
• Players who sit out challenges do receive points if their team wins the challenge (fortunately for Eric, who has Sandra Squared).
• If this challenge is a dual reward/immunity challenge (which I expect most pre-merge challenges to be), it counts as both and therefore 5 points for the victors.
• All token activity garners a point. If a player buys something that costs X tokens, that player gets X points. If a player sells something for X tokens, that player gets X points - not to mention the tokens which they can later spend. Natalie (hilariously below Danni on Eric's list) got a point for this last night.

Holler in the comments if you have an issue with any of these rules and rulings.

Standings

Power Rankings

  
If you'd like to name your team, do so in the comments. Until then, I get to name the teams.


1. Yul Live and Yul Learn (Greenbergs)

Parvati drew an early target, but escaped thanks to Adam's loose lips. The longer the game goes on the better for crafty vets like Parv, who sticks out like a sore thumb on the Greenberg team. The rest of these castaways are tough, even-keeled grinders currently on the other tribe. Until further notice, that's the preferable tribe.

Yul is the only other old-schooler on the team (though he's more of an ancient-schooler). He's picked up right where he left off in dominating Cook Islands. Meanwhile, Sarah and Tony have forged a cautious-but-solid cop alliance. They're ultra-wary of each other but recognize the advantage of a little common ground in an earthshaking season.


2. Vytas 2.0 (MoonBee)

Though we weren't confident about it, Melissa & I decided the appropriate strategy for WaW was to avoid the Big Guns. We elected to steer clear of ultra-powerful players with dominant reputations. Every WaW is actually a powerhouse, but some are more known for it. The thinking: there will be no sheep, goats or other farm animals this season. Thus it will be harder for dominant players to assemble and maintain alliances. Further, the superpower players will likely be aggressively targeted by their savvy competitors, each a former winner versed in championship protocol.

This ruled out the likes of Rob, Parvati and Tony. It also gave a demerit to Tyson, whose dominating run spearheaded one of our championships. The key decision was whether to double down on Adam or get Tyson coming back in round 4. I decided to square Adam over Melissa's objection. Adam instantly nearly went down in infamy as Vytas 2.0, stupidly spilling the beans on a blindside to the blindsidee's top allies. Adam talked about how selective honesty endeared him to key voters during his season, but that was the kiddie game. That shit ain't gonna fly in WaW. Adam and the MoonBee are very lucky he escaped episode three, but he's now in hot water with his entire tribe. Nobody trusts him and there's nobody he can rely on. That's not the kind of player you want to have two of.


3. Yul Regret That (Bri & Doug)

I got a glimpse of Doug's famous spreadsheet at Post the other night. The man doesn't mess around. It has it all. It led to what I thought was a sterling draft. But Bri & Doug have to be regretting the Ethan pick. He displayed little during the first two episodes other than an appreciation for life and a brown nose for Rob. And now he's going to wilt away on the Edge.

Why did Jeremy, Michele and company knock him out? They explained how imperative it was to break up the old-school Rob/Parvati/Ethan alliance. Fine. Why slaughter a foot soldier when you could assassinate the king? Was it necessary to abandon the Parv Plan just cause Adam spilled it? We know Adam wanted to weaken Rob without angering him, but it wasn't Adam who called the shot. (It appeared they didn't even tell Adam and he cast the one vote for Parv). It was almost as if they feared repercussions from the Godfather, even from the isolation of the Edge.


4. The Edge of Extinction: Turning 40 (Phil)

I think Phil drafted a terrific team. We had Wendell, Jeremy and Sarah in the top tier and Michele may be the most underrated player to ever play the game. She fits the precise profile of who I expect to win this battle of beasts: a below-the-radar player with sneaky athleticism, strategy and social skills. Watch for her to make a deep run and dunk on the other five of us for not taking her.

Phil's problem is the same as Bri & Doug's: he already finds himself 15 points behind the Greenbergs and down a player.


5. The Godfather Part III (Bag)

Bag went with classic old-school legends: Boston Rob, Parvati, Tyson and Tony. Strong players all, but not the motif I expect to control this game. Bag annoyingly veered from this strategy to snag Sophie, preventing us from doubling her. It's a team that could conceivably catch fire if a post-merge old-school alliance seizes power, but it seems more likely they'll be persecuted and Bag will finish last.


6. Big Eric: Big Fish (Eric)

Eric has established that he's really bad at this. He doesn't seem to be improving, as this could be his worst draft yet. Eric doesn't deserve full blame for this debacle, as he didn't intend to draft Sandra twice. This request was lost in the transfer of Eric's proxy draft due to The Post's scanty WiFi. Apologies to Eric, but these are the vagaries of proxying your picks.

Double Sandra deepens Eric's dependence on the Old School. Two problems with this stratagem: the inclination I mentioned earlier that the Old School will struggle this season, and the possible feud between Rob and Sandra. If both manage to last to a merge or realignment, perhaps they'll realize they need each other to hang in the game. Until then both should be viewed as unsafe players with low challenge upside.