Survivor 39: Episodes 4 & 5

I have so many thoughts about the last couple episodes, and not enough time to share them. Regrets for not posting sooner? A few, but then again... too few to mention. So here's a few highlights:

• I loved the "this is Plan Z" speech by Missy. That _____ (I need your help finding the perfect word for it, please vote on the options below, or provide your own!) quickly elevated her in my power rankings. Well strategized, defended at tribal council, and then somehow perfectly concealed from Dean in the next episode
• Choose from the following nouns:
1. soliloquy
2. closing argument
3. monologue
4. diatribe
• Why did Missy really do it though? Wouldn't Karishma have been a better option? Or any dude? Maybe this was just a really good opportunity to build her resume, I'm not sure.

Episode 5 begins with Dean's unsuccessful attempt to uncover the mastermind behind Chelsea's demise. Then they do a tribal swap and a new gang of misfits is presented with the same dilemma that Orange, aka Lairo, has been battling all season long. Keep worthless Karishma around who you know you can beat post-merge, but lose every challenge between now and then? Or cut your anchor and see if you can compete in the next couple challenges?

Aside: my personal favorite moment in the episode is during the reward challenge when Probst describes Noura dragging an exhausted and non-participatory Karishma through the sand as "great teamwork."

My theory on this decision is that the Vokai majority decided that they have sufficient fodder in the original Lairo minority that it doesn't matter if they win. They can lose every challenge, remove the threat of an Original Lairo Alliance, and strengthen their own original alliance.

In the end, Tom gets voted out. While his early demise seemed inevitable, his unbelievable gracious and respectful exit interview was not. Tom does not have the instincts necessary to succeed at Survivor. But he is clearly good people.

Power Rankings:

1. Baggins - 3 players are quickly emerging as the biggest threats to win this game: Missy, Tommy, and Kellee. Missy and Tommy are both on Baggins' team and his supporting cast looks to be a pretty big physical threat too. Great for raking up the points in this league.

2. MoonBee - see above, but note the small hiccup of having drafted Vince. Also the bottom half of their team mirrors mine, which is ominous....

3. Eric - I like Eric's team, despite his double-Tom dinger. Kellee and Aaron I think are both doing really well. Jamal is over-performing considering when he was drafted.

4. Michal & Ben - our players aren't just dropping like flies. They are doing so with idols in their pockets. Stupid flies. And despite that, I have hope for our team. A hope that rests solely on Kellee and Aaron's shoulders as any solid performance from Jason or Touchy Dan will help MoonBee just as much as us.... But you gotta have hope, right? (Note that I am similarly delusional about my 3-5 record in my fantasy football league - brace yourselves for the greatest comeback ever!)

5. Phil - It's kind of insane and completely indicative of the strength of Phil's team that he still has all his players in the game, and yet his total score is abysmal. There is little hope for Dean surviving the next vote, barring some kind of deux ex machina move from Boston Rob & Sandra.

6. Doug & Bri - The only things worse than a double-Dean are a double-Noura or a double-Karishma... and one of those is real! Not a great start to their season. At the same time, I said probably literally the same thing around this time last season. And we know how that went. So I'm not writing them off completely. But it is pretty hard to see a path to victory right now for this team.

DoW:
I've got a perma-vote on Noura going for now. I'll let you know if/when that goes away.

Goodbye Survivor 38, G'day Survivor 39!

I know I owe a season finale post for Survivor 38. I must admit, I'm still a little salty about that season's format...

I hated everything about the Edge of Extinction. Except for you, Reem. You were a real peach.

That being said, Doug and Bri made a dramatic comeback to claim victory. Moonbee's hopes and dreams were crushed by a stacked Chris who might qualify as one of the least-deserving Survivor victors. I hope that he returns for the highly-anticipated and soon-to-be overly-hyped-by-this-blog Season 40... the season of all Victors! Or, as Ben called it, the Quarter Quell. And then I hope that Chris is the first to be sent to the Edge of Extinction and NOT be named the Sole Survivor at the end. He'll just slowly devolve into a Gollum kind of character, muttering about how he just wanted to play a perfect game.

But to you, Doug and Bri, I say:

And now, on to Season 39: Island of Probst's Future Replacement

Hmmm, that doesn't sound quite right. Oh yes, it's the Island of the Idols. But it doesn't appear to provide much of an advantage, does it? Even if you get an Idol you have to use it to save your skin, and if you don't get an idol... well, folks probably won't believe that and then you get voted out.

The draft was surprisingly pleasant and professional. I think we can all agree that none of us really know what to expect with this cast of castaways, nor with the twists that this season includes. I'm pretty excited about it, I see a decent amount of potential to this season.

Power Rankings:

18. Vince - his entire alliance had a conversation with Karishma except for him. And that didn't make him nervous enough to play his idol? I think he might have deserved to be sent home.

17. Karishma - insists on isolating herself, complaining about no one "playing the game" when it's clear that everyone is playing like a pro. It's pretty clear she has no idea what she's doing.

16. Noura - If they switch up the tribes, Noura and Karishma might make a fun pair. I hope they contrive to put this potential odd couple together to wreak havoc on the tribes.

15. Dean - Dean was much higher on my rankings list when I had no idea who he was. So far his only air time was of him making a huge blunder, and then trying to look cool by imitating Tyrion Lannister in a moment when he was decidedly not cool. "As someone once infamously said.... split the vote" .....  you are derivative, Dean, and I am not amused.

14. Touchy Dan - and I suppose that's enough said.

13. Tom - is clearly not playing the right game. I love watching athletes who've spent years being team players come on this show and do everything they can to keep their tribe united and victorious in challenges. That's not actually the point, unfortunately, but it is endearing.

12. Elizabeth - questionable 2nd overall pick from Phil imo. What a great athlete, but I'm afraid she's just not crafty enough.

11. Jamal - does not seem to handle setbacks all that well. I like that he's still playing the game hard, though it's not good that his name is already being brought up.

10. Lauren - I like her, but she's not getting enough air time. I'm taking that to mean she's not contributing much in the way of strategy.

9. Aaron - this aggro jock may make it fairly far. Not because he's good at this game, but because they'll use him for his muscle and he's one of the only one of those types left.

8. Elaine - has the backstory to win, but I'm not sure she's going to get to the end.... probably because of the backstory.

7. Missy - I think she's doing a great job, but her leadership role on the tribe might just be a bit too obvious. I'm worried she's putting a target on her back.

6. Janet - represented herself well against Elizabeth in the swimming part of this last challenge... though she's evidently not great with knots. I think she's doing great overall. Holding her own in challenges, has a good relationship with most people in her tribe, open to blindsides, etc. But she also needs to be prepared to drive the train at some point too.

5. Jack - I just loved how he bounced back from that blindside - what a champ! I think he's going to be that lovable doof that no one wants to get rid of, even when they know they should. #FabioJunior

4. Jason - I think he's being crafty. Laying low for now, but clearly capable of making big moves.

3. Kellee - I don't know why I think she's going far in this game. She's done fine, but I wouldn't say exceptional. And yet something tells me she's going to be around for a while.

2. Chelsea - it definitely feels like she's driving the train of her women's alliance, and I think she's making smart decisions. I'm sorry to see Vince go, but that keeps her on good terms with the 3 remaining bros on her tribe, which will be critical should they do a tribe mix-up soon.

1. Tommy - first one to mend the bonds after Molly's blindside. People are approaching him to discuss strategy. All signs point towards Tommy as an early favorite to win the whole thing.


That's all I've got for now. Would love to hear other's opinions on the Pool's power rankings, though!