Friday, December 25, 2015

Cambodia: Finale!

Season finale! The episode started with 6 castaways left, 50% of which were Contrarian Ninjas. 

The first tribal council went almost exactly as Ben predicted. They went into it with Spencer having immunity, Kimmi planning on voting with Keith & Wentworth, while believing she had her former alliance convinced to split votes. In the end he cover got blown, Wentworth & Jeremy both played idols, and "for the first time in Survivor history" none of the votes that were cast counted! In the re-vote there was a 3-3 split for Tasha v. Kimmi. And at that point Keith should have realized that he needed to switch votes, but... well, it's Keith, so of course he didn't. In the end, Kimmi ended up going home, it just took a little longer than it should have. 

This was a super interesting scenario, though it kind of felt like Probst was making the rules up as he went. In the end, the repercussions of Jeremy & Spencer's behavior in this & the 2nd-to-last tribal council may have played some small role in how the jury votes fell, but I doubt that it changed who won. 

Congrats to Jeremy & the Ghost Coaster for picking the winner. But bigger congrats to the Contrarian Ninja Stack! This solid team not only dominated this season, we also set the new points record. (And I can't help but imagine the 300+ score we would have had if the women had gone with the all-female alliance.) 

Speaking of all-women's alliances, I want to re-examine this some more. At first I thought it was weird that all women's alliances are suggested (or attempted) in probably over half of Survivor's seasons. Monica was the first one to suggest it this season, and then Kimmi made a valiant effort of making it happen late in the game. But why is this so appealing? And why don't men go with an "all men's alliance" as much as women do? I think that the explanation was sitting right in front of us at final tribal. While most of the jury started their questioning with "I don't know who I'm voting for, by vote is up for grabs" it clearly wasn't. Because they then proceeded to ignore Tasha throughout, or when they addressed her asked questions like "why were you Jeremy's lackey?" 

Tasha got no credit for playing an absolutely stellar game. (She also did a crap job of proving it in final tribal, but that's a different subject.) She started out in a solid alliance, then found herself at the bottom of the totem pole during the first tribal switcheroo when she ended up with Jeff, Savage, Peih Gee, Abi & Woo on the world's worst tribe. She not only turned things around for herself there, but she was actually one of the few people who was able to keep Abi in line. When the tribes were remixed & then merged, she quietly slid back into her original alliance & took on a leadership role. It was clear that keeping in her good graces was extremely important, if you pay attention to how folks like Stephen & Spencer acted around her. 

And yet, Jeremy is given all the credit for being the leader of his alliance, and Tasha is seen largely as a coattail rider by the end of the season. In my opinion, the problem comes down to gender bias. Most women on Survivor play a subtler social game than the men do. And while that can be extremely useful in keeping a target off their back during the show, it also means they're given little strategic credit at the end compared to the alpha male they inevitably wind up with at final tribal. Had Tasha gone to final tribal with Kimmi and Abi, SHE would have been the one getting all the strategic credit, there'd have been no competition. Why she didn't go that route, I'm not sure. But at the very least she should have seriously considered it & what going up against the likes of Jeremy & Spencer would have meant for her. 

This doesn't apply to all women. There have been plenty of strong women who have won Survivor - Parvati, Amber, Natalie the twinsie, Sophie, Sandra x 2, etc. But women who played more subtle social games like Julie from Yul's season, and Tasha from this season, are the ones who get screwed in these scenarios. 

On the other hand, it would have been interesting for Probst to have taken a poll at the reunion to see how the votes would have fallen if he's taken Wentworth instead of Spencer to the finals. Would it have cost him a million dollars? He certainly would have lost Ciera & Abi's votes, but I'm not sure who else. I guess Spencer, but that might have just been an idle threat he made during that tribal council. 

Overall this was an extremely exciting & fun season. One of the best in my book. Almost every episode was full of surprises. And not just for the castaways, but for the audience as well. I have no doubt next season will feel like a disappointment, even if it's a solid season. Newbies just aren't as good at the game as the pros we had on this & other returning castaway seasons. 


The Score:

 Michal & Ben - Contrarian Ninja Stack: 228 points
  1. Tasha (44 pts)
  2. Kelley (79 pts)
  3. Stephen (36 pts)
  4. Kimmi (38 pts)
  5. Kass (31 pts)
Bagdrea - Ghost Coaster: 187 points
  1. Jeremy (124 pts)
  2. Jeff (0 pts)
  3. Monica (12 pts)
  4. Kelly (20 pts)
  5. Abi-Maria (31 pts)
Doug & Bri - Survivor MacGyver: 160 points
  1. Spencer (50 pts)
  2. Joe (69 pts)
  3. Shirin (-4 pts)
  4. Terry (9 pts)
  5. Ciera (36 pts)
MoonBee - Woofully Inadequate: 83 points
  1. Vytas (-5 pts)
  2. Woo (8 pts)
  3. Keith (54 pts)
  4. Savage (29 pts)
  5. Peih Gee (-3 pts)

Prop Bets:

Now that everything is set & done, let's recap the prop bets that were made a draft dinner. Moon came out as the clear loser after betting it all on Vytas. Ben did very well for himself & Bag ended up with the best record of 1-0. Props to Doug for winning the bets most akin to "the most interesting man in the world." 


People involvedCastaways InvolvedMethod of measurementStakesAnd the winner is...
Moon v. BenVytas v. KassMore points1 drinkBen
Moon v. BenVytas v. KimmiMore pointsdinnerBen
Moon v. BenVytas v. StephenMore points$20Ben
Moon v. BenVytas v. TashaMore points3% of next poker tourneyBen
Moon v. BenVytas v. KelleyMore points$50 or less bottleBen
Doug v. BenShirin v. TashaMore points6 pack of beerBen
Doug v. BenShirin v. TashaLongevity6 pack of beerBen
Doug v. BagAbi-Maria0 and more points = Bag1 drinkBag
Negative points = Doug2 drinks
Doug v. BenTerry v. Savage$15 bottle of wineLongevityBen
Doug v. MelissaCiera v. Peih Gee"After-dinner beverage"LongevityDoug
Doug v. BenCiera v. Peih Gee"After-dinner beverage"LongevityDoug



Power Rankings:

1. Contrarian Ninja Stack - This team was built on the assumption that obviously physical & strategic threats like Jeremy, Spencer, and Joe would be seen as big targets & get eliminated early in the game. That proved not to be true, but the foundation on which this team was based was still rock solid. I'm not sure how often an entire team has made the jury before, but it can't be more than 1-2 times tops. This was a group of solidly social & strategic players who flew under the radar on challenges, but still managed to rake in major points along the way. They were led by Wentworth, who was only outscored by Jeremy's clean sweep of the votes.

2. Ghost Coaster - On the opposite extreme, Bagdrea's team picked the winner of the season, but had such a lackluster back-up crew that they honestly got a little lucky that they even managed to come in 2nd. While I can't blame them for drafting Jeff (and Abi wasn't actually a choice, they got stuck with her), I think that they were the only people at the draft who thought there was any value in Kelly or Monica. Stronger 3rd & 4th round picks really could have swung it for this team. 

3. Survivor MacGyver - Doug & Bri's team was really quite impressive. Considering how long Spencer & Joe lasted in the game, looking back now it's hard to believe that they didn't win. But Terry's family crisis & Shirin's social ineptitude cost them in the end. 

4. Woofully Inadequate - And then we have this season's trophy makers. The overall #1 pick of Vytas was questioned from the start (mostly by Ben), and was quickly followed by a couple of picks of known strategically incompetent players. Picking either Woo or Keith (and especially Keith!) is fine. But you just can't have them both on your team. It's tough though, because they drafted first, and then didn't get to pick again until the end of the 2nd round, at which point most of the rock stars have been taken. This may have been the worst season to get the #1 overall pick actually. 

Douche of the Week:

Unsurprisingly, Abi-Maria took this one home. Overall this was a non-douchey season with the exception of Abi & sometimes Kass. If the next season is equally non-douchey I'm not sure this rule is worth keeping around. 

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Cambodia: Episode 12

Gnight Abi! As is probably obvious from my last post, I didn't think they had the chops to get rid of her. I'm glad Tasha made that happen; this was a way better choice than voting out Keith. Really, neither of them have a chance of winning this season, but at least Keith is relatively harmless. Tasha was right that Abi could totally throw a wrench in the loop at any point.

Ben's guess at the "in 31 seasons this is the first time this has happened on Survivor" sound bite from next week's preview is that none of the votes will count. Which would mean Kelley & Jeremy were the targets & they both played their idols. I really hope this is true - that'd be a truly stellar episode!!


The Score:

 Michal & Ben - Contrarian Ninja Stack: 156 points
  1. Tasha (24 pts)
  2. Kelley (44 pts)
  3. [Stephen (36 pts)]
  4. Kimmi (21 pts)
  5. [Kass (31 pts)]
Doug & Bri - Survivor MacGyver: 134 points
  1. Spencer (24 pts)
  2. [Joe (69 pts)]
  3. [Shirin (-4 pts)]
  4. [Terry (9 pts)]
  5. [Ciera (36 pts)]
Bagdrea - Ghost Coaster: 96 points
  1. Jeremy (38 pts)
  2. [Jeff (0 pts)]
  3. [Monica (12 pts)]
  4. [Kelly (20 pts)]
  5. [Abi-Maria (20 pts)]
MoonBee - Woofully Inadequate: 65 points
  1. [Vytas (-5 pts)]
  2. [Woo (8 pts)]
  3. Keith (36 pts)
  4. [Savage (29 pts)]
  5. [Peih Gee (-3 pts)]
Power Rankings:

1. Contrarian Ninja Stack - CNS has 50% of the players still in the game. We are still looking good, though Spencer is definitely going to give us a sweat. It's too bad the all women's alliance didn't come to fruition, but we're still in good shape. Kelly is super scrappy being the underdog, Tasha is still showing her chops as a strategist in the game, and Kimmi is hanging around.

2. Survivor MacGyver - This season's editing has long been pointing towards a Spencer redemption plot line. It feels to me like this is his season to lose. I like Spencer & think he's been playing a solid game, I just hope he doesn't steal the victory away from the Ninjas! Overall he's proven to be scrappy, adaptable, social, and really well-spoken. He'd be tough to beat in final tribal. 

3. Ghost Coaster - Bagdrea is down to just Jeremy. Jeremy is still a huge threat to win this game, unfortunately the rest of their stable didn't produce enough to give them a chance to challenge for the pool championship.The poor drafting decision when they selected Monica will haunt them for a long time if Jeremy ends up winning this season.

4. Woofully Inadequate - Keith has absolutely no idea what's going on in this game. Not surprising, but maybe a bit disappointing. He is so likable, I just wish he had a little more cunning in him. MoonBee should start planning the next addition to the trophy.


Douche of the Week:

Whoever said "we" the most at the most obnoxious tribal council of the season. I think it was Spencer...

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Cambodia: Episodes 10 & 11

With the holidays & travel time I didn't have time to write a blog about last week's mega-episode so there is a lot to cover! It's kind of fun this way, though, because we can see how the decisions made over the last week or so on the island have led to our current situation.

Quick episode 10 recap: Stephen, Jeremy & Spencer sided with the "witches coven" to take out Wiggles in the previous episode. Then everyone decided that Stephen was a huge threat because of his unknown advantage & tried to take him out. Jeremy saved him however, with a hidden idol donation. Then Joe doesn't win immunity for the first time ever - literally the first time that he's been at risk in the game! - and Stephen thinks his white whale is finally ready to be harpooned only to be blindsided/backstabbed by Spencer.

In episode 11, Spencer is talking about going his own way, but feels like he still needs to be cordial with Jeremy only to realize that Jeremy may be his only friend left in the game by the end of the episode. Kimmi proposes an all-women's alliance which seems like a great idea to all the ladies out there. All eyes are on Joe in the meantime as he loses another immunity challenge and Keith FINALLY gets the victory he has been working so hard for! Go Keith!! Perpetually underestimated and overlooked because of his age, Keith has long been the only contender against Joe, despite everyone talking about how Jeremy is a challenge beast. I'm so happy Keith finally beat him. Potentially the door is wide open now for a new player to dominate the challenges!

Even forewarned of an all-women's alliance, Spencer & Jeremy vote out Joe because, really, what else can they do? Joe must be eliminated & despite Spencer saying while he voted "this is a million dollar vote" the million dollar vote was already made when he decided to vote out Stephen. If Joe had gone last episode instead of Stephen, then I don't think Kimmi would have suggested the all-women's alliance & I seriously doubt that Tasha would waver in her alliance either.

There's no guarantee that the all-women's alliance will actually come to fruition, but if the women know what they are doing they should go with it. I don't think any of them would beat Spencer or Jeremy in a final tribal, although Tasha & Wentworth would probably beat Keith. They all improve their chances of winning by banding together.


The Score:

 Michal & Ben - Contrarian Ninja Stack: 155 points
  1. Tasha (24 pts)
  2. Kelley (43 pts)
  3. [Stephen (36 pts)]
  4. Kimmi (21 pts)
  5. [Kass (31 pts)]
Doug & Bri - Survivor MacGyver: 127 points
  1. Spencer (17 pts)
  2. [Joe (69 pts)]
  3. [Shirin (-4 pts)]
  4. [Terry (9 pts)]
  5. [Ciera (36 pts)]
Bagdrea - Ghost Coaster: 80 points
  1. Jeremy (38 pts)
  2. [Jeff (0 pts)]
  3. [Monica (12 pts)]
  4. [Kelly (20 pts)]
  5. Abi-Maria (10 pts)
MoonBee - Woofully Inadequate: 61 points
  1. [Vytas (-5 pts)]
  2. [Woo (8 pts)]
  3. Keith (32 pts)
  4. [Savage (29 pts)]
  5. [Peih Gee (-3 pts)]
Power Rankings:

1. Contrarian Ninja Stack -Tasha is playing a really shrewd game & Wentworth has been crushing it! Kimmi is finally showing her chops a little & breaking away from the Bayon alliance she's been loyal to for so long. Obviously the Ninjas are hoping for an all-women's alliance all the way to the end! Even if we don't get it though, I think Spencer would need to sweep the votes at final tribal for any other team to overtake us at this point.

2. Survivor MacGyver - Rough couple of episodes for Doug & Bri as they lose both Ciera & Joe. Ciera will not be missed & I think they did the right thing to eliminate her when they did. Still, with an all-women's alliance looming, it would have been really fun to watch her scheme away. Joe is obviously the huge loss. He was raking in points left & right and while I don't think he could have won the game, he could have put this team in close contention with the Ninjas had he stuck around another 1-2 episodes. I wish he'd been voted out one episode sooner though, because I found the scenes with him & his father awkward & uncomfortable. Given the choice, I'd rather not have seen that. 

3. Ghost Coaster - Is Abi a lock for final tribal at this point? It would be really hard to have lived with her for 30 days for the sole purpose of knowing you can beat her at final tribal, only to have her knocked out right beforehand. So devastating!! Jeremy, on the other hand, is totally worth rooting for. He's got a better chance than Spencer to make finals at this point because of his hidden immunity idol. Plus he has more ties & relationships with the remaining players in the game that might be able to squeak him through another episode or two.

4. Woofully Inadequate -Keith!! Seriously, Keith could make it to final tribal at this point just by winning all the challenges from here on out. I don't think anyone else out there is as competitive as he is, or enjoys challenges more. He's completely hopeless when it comes to the strategy side of things, so it's nice to see he has other strengths at least. I'll be cheering for him -- I can't imagine what his opening speech would be like at final tribal, but I know it would be one to remember.


Douche of the Week:

Cast your vote for both episodes! I'm voting for Abi twice: in episode 10 for calling Stephen "poopy pants" -- you're not 5 years old Abi, and that kind of situation on Survivor isn't funny, it's completely miserable & dangerous! In episode 11 for numerous reasons, none of which I can actually remember right now.