Survivor 29: Episode 11

My my, there are now 3 whole hours of Survivor to catch up on, analyze & mock. With 3 players  gone and plenty of strategizing - some decent, some highly questionable - having taken place there is a lot to cover!

First we have to address Episode 10, an episode with probably the most game-play, certainly the most idol-play, and possibly one the most bone-headed moments of the whole season. Reed put forth an admirable effort to bring down the all-so-annoying Jon, only to be foiled by Keith's big mouth & complete lack of understanding of the game of Survivor. The debate - if any was still going on - about whether or not Keith was a smart player has to be over. No one who has even an inkling about what's going on the in the game would have screwed the pooch the way Keith did at that crucial tribal council.

Crazily enough, even after Keith's massive blunder, the blindside still would have worked had Natalie (and I guess Jaclyn, although I didn't catch how) not insisted that Jon play his idol! As someone who has pledged revenge against Jon for taking out Jeremy, this may not have made sense at first, but it was a big play for Natalie to save him in order to maintain her majority alliance. She's prepared to wait for the right time before she makes her move.

Somehow Episode 11 started with Jon trying to alter history by claiming that it was his brilliant decision to play his idol and had nothing to do with his alliance looking out for him. Jaclyn was very understandably upset about this & all her subsequent fighting with him felt completely justified to me. It has to be extremely challenging to date him even under normal circumstances, but in the high-stress environment of Survivor it has to be all but unbearable. I was half-hoping for a Survivor break-up followed by Jaclyn having a revenge hook-up with Alec. Now that would have been entertaining! Fortunately for Jaclyn, she's also not so bright which must make it easier to overlook Jon's stupidity & arrogance, and the two of them eventually made up.

The lover's spat between J&J almost certainly resulted in Reed's doom. Which he pointed out to them, but did he really think they cared enough about him to stop their shenanigans long enough to actually play the game? If Reed were really a good strategist he would have realized getting their attention was a lost cause and should have tried another plan.

In general though this group is terrible about developing back-up plans. It's usually a small miracle that they came up with one plan to start with! This HAS to be the stupidest group of people left this late in game of any season of Survivor. Keith, Alec, Jon & Jaclyn are all idiots. Missy is mostly smart but becomes a psycho tiger mom any time someone criticizes her daughter -- a real Survivor player would be able to hold that in & exact their revenge by getting those folks voted out. Natalie is really the only decently smart one left, and that should probably make her a little worried. Probst suggested in the last tribal council that they were targeting players who were good in challenges, but he was wrong. They've been targeting the smart people -- Josh, Jeremy & Reed were clearly the brainiacs of the season and they were among the first to go post-merge.

I loved that Natalie & Baylor planned to vote out Jon this episode, but when he won immunity... surprise, surprise they didn't have a back-up plan! And what seems like the super-obvious back-up plan of voting out Jon's girlfriend never even seemed to cross their minds. In the end Natalie decided it was better to keep Keith around rather than Alec. This was a decent move, though not as good of a play as getting rid of Jaclyn. Keith is a challenge beast - something I think no one could have expected! - and now Natalie has an ally in Keith, rather than Baylor having an ally in Alec. Still, there are huge negatives to this: 1) Keith is dumb and could easily blow Natalie's plans by talking too much, 2) they should have voted out Jaclyn & removed Jon's closest ally.


Side Bets:

• Reed ftw: Moon v. Ben at 100:1 odds (two bits) -- Ben = winner!
• Jeremy v. Keith ftw: Michal v. Moon ($20)
• Missy v. Keith ftw: Ben v. Moon (one handle or bottle of wine $50 or less, 1 drink at Survivor dinner, and 5% of the next tournament they both play $1650 or less)
• Jon v. Keith ftw: Ben v. Moon (see above)
• Josh v. Jeremy ftw: Moon v. Ben

The Teams:

Michal & Ben "The Misfits": 85 points

1. Josh (18 pts)
2. Jeremy (29 pts)
3. Missy (8 pts)
4. Keith (30 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 54 points

1. Reed (36 pts)
2. Natalie (26 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (-2 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 44 points

1. Alec (25 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (23 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 44 points

1. Baylor (11 pts)
2. Jon (33 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 5 points


Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - the geriatrics left on this team are doing surprisingly well. Keith may not be the brightest guy ever but he has to be the biggest threat in challenges. He almost always finishes in the top 3! Could Keith actually win this season? It still feels like a long shot, but there are so many despicable players left that he may wind up being the best option left. Missy, despite her insanely defensive & aggressive attitude when defending her daughter, is playing one of the best social games. If she can drop her weird issues/feelings about Jon she'd be an even bigger threat.

2. Daddy Issues - I now think that Natalie has a better chance of winning the season over Jon, which is why I dropped DI to 3rd place last week. DI still has 2 players left though, so there is plenty of potential for them to earn points on the way to the finale! It was refreshing to see Baylor playing her own game, apart from her mother. I don't think she can win, but she's a great option for anyone to take to final tribal with them, so I've bumped them back up to 2nd place. Jon is my most hated player left in the game at this point and I really don't understand how he can get away with all the flip-flopping he's been doing. But somehow the other players still seem to like him and he really could be a threat to win the game. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it winds up being anyone but him.

3. Queers & Foreigners - Losing Reed was unfortunate, but not surprising. All of Q&F's hopes now rest on Natalie, who I think is a real contender. She's a good strategist, she's in the majority alliance, and she's focused on getting rid of the player who is probably her biggest rival. All good things. I just wish she'd voted Jaclyn out in the last episode, that would have made her a clear front-runner in my opinion. She's still a big threat, but J&J are both still in the game, will probably be pissed about how the last vote went, and I could definitely see them coming after her.

4. The Buffoons - The final Buffoon has fallen, but the spirit of buffoonery is certain to stick around for the remainder of the season.

Douche of the Week

For episode 11 I have to pick Jon. My god that guy is getting on my nerves! My vote could be for any number of things he said and did in this episode, but mostly it's because of the way he tried to take full credit for playing his idol at the previous tribal council, even though he absolutely would have gone home without Natalie insisting that he play it. His whole "I'm a wine connoisseur" bit was pretty aggravating too.