Survivor 29: Episode 9

Wow, I so did not see Jeremy getting voted out this soon! I do think that Jon needed to vote out Jeremy but it seems like it's waaaay too early. Now the "power couple" alliance of Jon, Jaclyn, Missy and Baylor is on some pretty thin ice. Natalie feels betrayed & Reed voted with them this time, but will he really stand by the people who voted out his boyfriend? They could both easily choose to ally themselves with the good ol' boys now, and there goes the alliance's majority. This seems like way too big of a risk just because Jeremy knew that Jon had an idol. Really that's pretty small potatoes considering Jon then blabbed about it to pretty much everyone else.

This was exactly the time that you whittle down the good ol' boys alliance so that you can nullify the power of Keith's idol. Get that group down to 3 people, then you split votes to get out Keith or Wes, and THEN you blindside Jeremy. Really, I think this alliance will pay for this decision in the long run. And really, the decision that they made was allowing Jon to be the brains of their operation.

On the other hand, this was a great episode for the good ol' boys! The door is wide open for alliance shifts, power plays, and crucial immunity idol saves. Well done by Keith for not playing his idol this episode, it must have been mighty tempting.


Side Bets:

• Reed ftw: Moon v. Ben at 100:1 odds (two bits)
• Jeremy v. Keith ftw: Michal v. Moon ($20)
• Missy v. Keith ftw: Ben v. Moon (one handle or bottle of wine $50 or less, 1 drink at Survivor dinner, and 5% of the next tournament they both play $1650 or less)
• Jon v. Keith ftw: Ben v. Moon (see above)
• Josh v. Jeremy ftw: Moon v. Ben

The Teams:

Michal & Ben "The Misfits": 67 points

1. Josh (18 pts)
2. Jeremy (29 pts)
3. Missy (4 pts)
4. Keith (16 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 25 points

1. Reed (17 pts)
2. Natalie (16 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (-2 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 19 points

1. Alec (11 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (12 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 19 points

1. Baylor (10 pts)
2. Jon (9 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points


Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - Losing Josh & Jeremy back-to-back was devastating, but Keith and Missy are still strong competitors this season. Keith is surprisingly good at the challenges -- really if anyone is a big challenge threat the record would say that Keith, not Jeremy, is the one to target! Missy is as socially crafty as ever, although at this point I think she'll have a hard time winning jury votes just because of how protective she is of Baylor and how much everyone dislikes Baylor.

2. Daddy Issues - Baylor won Doug & Bri some much needed points, which was shocking considering how useless she's been in the point department up until now. And Jon is turning into a power player this season, as ill-equipped mentally as he seems to be for this role. He's been flip-flopping all season long & doesn't seem to realize that this is a problem! Although maybe it's not. After all, it hasn't gotten him into any trouble so far & everyone keeps approaching him and Jaclyn for their "loyalty."

3. Queers & Foreigners - This new turn of events has the most effect on Natalie's game and I'm really interested to see what she does about it. I think she's definitely capable of making moves, and quite frankly, running circles around a lot of the other players. She'll probably see this as a huge set-back now, but if she plays her cards right, this could turn out to be a huge opportunity for her to get out of Jeremy's shadow, get some power & recognition, and have a strong go at making it to final tribal.

4. The Buffoons - The Buffoons are in a much stronger position after this last episode. They still aren't in great shape by any means, but at least they're headed in the right direction. Potentially with some help from Papa Keith, Wes can go far. And at this point Alec would be my first pick as a dreg to bring with me to the finals. That boy has done absolutely nothing beyond piss people off. He's the perfect compatriot for a schemer to take to the finals! I wonder if anyone is thinking that far ahead though...

Douche of the Week

I can't recall anyone being particularly douchey this week. I think I'll go with Missy for obviously not trying very hard against her daughter in the reward challenge, essentially quitting the immunity challenge so she could cheer Baylor on, and also for betraying Jeremy. Not especially douchey, but definitely aggravating.

Survivor 29: Episode 8

The showdown between the "chessmasters" Josh & Jeremy finally happened! It is pretty amazing that Julie quitting the game really did decide which alliance came out the winner. However, based on the editing, the end result didn't wasn't all that surprising. The whole storyline so far has been leading up to Josh v. Jeremy clash with Jeremy coming out the winner.

The most exciting part of this episode was watching the Jaclyn/Jon dynamic, especially as it related to the good ol' boys treatment of the women on the tribe. I think that nothing else could better summarize the way that most of the people this season are (not) playing the game. In a game that is almost entirely based on the social aspect & getting people to like you enough to vote for you, a group that acts like pigs, bosses other people around and insults them both to their face & behind their backs is clearly not in it for the long haul. Thank goodness Jaclyn took this affront as seriously as she did -- had she not, I would have had very little respect for her.

Hilariously, when Jon rejoined the tribe and Jaclyn outlined what I found to be a very logical argument why they needed to switch back to the Jeremy alliance, Jon only seemed to hear the "I got my feelings hurt" part and tried to blow Jaclyn's argument off as being emotional. So clearly he's not that more civilized/gentlemanly than the good ol' boys alliance. Because seriously, did he not hear the rest of her argument? They have a much better chance of beating the Jeremy alliance group in immunity challenges compared to an alliance of young men & a surprisingly competitive Keith. And why is Jon so scared of Jeremy anyway? It's 1 man in an alliance of 6 people, just vote him out when you're down to final 6 or final 5!! In the other alliance it's already clear that at least 50% of your core alliance (aka Jaclyn) has no sway or pull and will easily be targeted as the first to go when you get down to a final 7. But, as previously noted by me & several commenters, Jon is not a long-term planner. Nor someone who wants to waste too much energy thinking.

Speaking of commenters, Moon said the following in regards to Ben's assessment of Jon v. Keith: "Still think you Greenbergs are too high on Jon and too low on Keith. I'll take the smart guy over the idiot every time, especially if the smart guy has an idol." I'm not saying that Jon is smart - far from it - but where on earth did you get your evidence that Keith is smart?? No less than 2 players in this last episode noted that he has no idea what he's really doing out there. (Actually, it might have been 3 players -- Jeremy, Missy & Baylor I think.) And now Jon has an idol too, so it's Idiot w/ Idol v. Idiot w/Idol on this one. But Jon's loved one actually has a brain, and Keith's loved one is a Buffoon. Jon's in the majority alliance & Keith is about to get thrown under the bus by the remnants of his own alliance. So no, we are not too high on Jon right now.

Additionally, one of the main reasons that we do think Jon is a threat in this game is because he actually has a likeable personality & compelling story, should he make final tribal. The good ol' boys would almost certainly vote for him over any woman left in the game & they'll be a huge contingent on the jury. He's well-liked by most everyone, actually. Also he's on the show in spite of his father being at home with a terminal illness which will get the heartstrings tugging for the jury members who vote based on personal situation rather than adeptness at playing the game.


Side Bets:

Currently the side bets are all still live, although Ben is now free-rolling in an off-the-books Josh v. Jeremy bet he has going with Moon.


The Teams:

Michal & Ben "The Misfits": 55 points

1. Josh (18 pts)
2. Jeremy (17 pts)
3. Missy (4 pts)
4. Keith (16 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 21 points

1. Reed (15 pts)
2. Natalie (14 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (-2 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 17 points

1. Alec (9 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (12 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 11 points

1. Baylor (2 pts)
2. Jon (9 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points


Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - The final 4 players left in the memory immunity challenge were all Misfits. Amazing! I'm really happy that Jeremy ended up winning the challenge, though we would have gotten the points no matter who of the top 4 ended up winning. But I think not being able to vote out Jeremy at that tribal might have been the little extra nudge that Jon needed to switch alliances. We're down a player, but we high-fived anyway - the Jeremy/Missy alliance has far more point-earning potential for the Misfits than the Josh/Keith alliance ever did.

2. Daddy Issues - Huge congratulations to Doug & Bri who got engaged this weekend! You may not be winning the pool this season, but you have to both feel like winners anyways. :) With Baylor & Jon now firmly in the majority alliance, and Jon with an immunity idol to boot, this team is set up to go deep. The real question is if they'll make points along the way. Baylor is a point-earning dead zone, which is unfortunate, but Jon has potential. He'll need to string a few immunity wins together though for this team to have even a slim chance though. He also needs to continue to rely on Jaclyn to do his thinking for him, otherwise he might do something extra dumb.

3. Queers & Foreigners - Moon & Melissa are almost entirely dependent on Natalie going deep at this point, although previews for next week point to Reed finally stepping up & playing the game. It's probably too little too late for him, though, and starting to make moves now could just put a bigger target on his back. Reed & Natalie are more likely to bring Q&F points compared to Baylor, but it's still a super long shot for this team to pull off a victory.

4. The Buffoons - Still living up to their name, the Buffoons continue to entertain. Wes's binge eating followed by a night of pooping in the woods made for another classic Buffoons moment. I hope that this team sticks around for a little longer so that we can continue to mock them! In other news, though, the Buffoons are pretty much guaranteed not to take the all-time low score title away from me. With 2 Buffoons on the jury they should be in the clear.
   

Douche of the Week

The whole good ol' boy gang seems like they are the obvious pick this week. I'm going to vote for Keith because, as the elder statesman, he really should know better. Also because of the way he talked shit about Baylor to Missy. Poor form, sir!

Survivor 29: Episode 7

Every episode seems like it starts the same way - with a Misfit being the primary target for elimination. But ultimately the contestants get distracted by someone else & a different team ends up taking the hit instead. The same held true for this latest episode, though this was definitely a closer call than any of the others!

The merge & the subsequent alliance shifts & formations were all pretty inevitable. Ultimately this was a predictable episode since we've long known about the quitter. The most interesting part was watching Josh & Jeremy both vying for Jon & Jaclyn's favor. It's a little annoying that Jon is the decision-maker in this relationship (at least for now) as Jaclyn is clearly the smarter of the two. Jon makes decisions and when he tries to explain why they are the right decision the closest he can get is just to say "this is better for us long term." Not really an explanation, sir. Next episode should be much more interesting as we watch the courting of J&J by J&J continue.

Side Bets:

See Ben's comments from last week for a nice summary.

The Teams:

Michal & Ben "The Misfits": 38 points

1. Josh (9 pts)
2. Jeremy (9 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (14 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 17 points

1. Reed (13 pts)
2. Natalie (12 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (-2 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 15 points

1. Alec (9 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (10 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 7 points

1. Baylor (2 pts)
2. Jon (5 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points


Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - This team is in great shape. With a 20 point lead already & 2 more players still in the game to earn jury points, it's going to be tough to beat this team. Despite a tough episode this week I still think that Jeremy is the favorite to win the show, but Missy, Josh & Keith are all contenders too. This team pitted against each other, but since it's 2 v. 2 it doesn't really affect us too much which side wins (except of course for side bet reasons) in the Josh v Jeremy showdown.

2. Daddy Issues - Outside of the Misfits Jon probably has the best chance of winning this season. Natalie is a potential contender too, but Jon's story with an ailing father is far more endearing to a jury than that of a chronic reality show contestant. Baylor is proving to be more & more useless as the show goes on. After the first episode I thought she'd be a player but now it seems like she's incapable of being a leader and needs to have a stronger personality telling her what to do.

3. Queers & Foreigners - Quitter Julie was completely devastating to this team. It's a 20 point hit that I can't see them bouncing back from. Reed continues to be a non-entity and I'm predicting he'll get voted out in a collateral damage situation after Josh wins an immunity. Or maybe Reed will win immunity, give it to Josh, and pay the consequences. Natalie is a potential threat, but she's also put all her eggs in the Missy/Jeremy basket. Her fate will depend on those two's ability to keep Jon & Jaclyn loyal.

4. The Buffoons - Wes & Alec seem like the types who could win some points for Bag & Andrea in upcoming challenges. But this has been a season that is almost the exact opposite of a standard Survivor season - the elderly & minorities are running the show & that seems to include old man Keith winning the physical challenges! We'll see if either of these guys produce before their certain demise.

Douche of the Week

I'm assuming Julie is a shoe-in for this one, what with her food-stealing, whining, and quitting for no good reason. At least that's where my vote is going.

Survivor 29: Episode 6

I think it's safe to say that this is not the smartest batch of contestants on Survivor, but it's still super entertaining to watch them bumble their way through a series of mishaps that have never happened on the show before. Lost flint? Check. Weird bartering with Probst? Check. Rice binging? Check. I believe it was just a few seasons ago that Tyson encouraged his team to binge eat their food before the merge, and even THAT tribe didn't run out of rice!  

I predict that next, the merged tribe will lose another flint, or maybe a machete, or some of the fishing gear. I suspect that Jeff's bartering days are over - except for a Survivor Auction that I hope still happens! 

All things considered, losing their comfort seemed like a small price to pay for getting a whole bag of rice. However, my new favorite Survivor op ed writer (http://tvrecaps.ew.com/recap/survivor-san-juan-del-sur-episode-6/) points out that with an impending merge there's really only so much the producers could do to punish this tribe without getting ridiculous. And if Julie ends up quitting because of the lost tarp then I will have to call it just. 


The Teams:  

Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 33 points 

1. Josh (9 pts)
2. Jeremy (10 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (8 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 28 points 

1. Reed (13 pts)
2. Natalie (12 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (9 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 15 points

1. Alec (9 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (10 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 7 points 

1. Baylor (2 pts)
2. Jon (5 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points
 

 
Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits -I think this episode soundly proved that Keith is NOT a favorite to win this game. The man had absolutely no idea what was going on in his tribe during the vote & that doesn't bode well considering that his only plan once they make the merge is to join up with his son. Care to bring an alliance along with you, Keith? How about some inside info into the ongoings of your current tribe? No? Too busy napping, I suppose. Jeremy on the other hand got through what will probably be the riskiest time for him in the game -- probably until there are 6 players left. Missy is getting more annoying, but she's laid the all-important social game groundwork to get Natalie to essentially publicly jump ship from her tribe. They are looking really solid.

2. Daddy Issues - Daddy Issues reminds me of the Black Knight from Monty Python.They've had a couple of limbs removed, sure... but it might just be a flesh wound. The real talent & hope for this team is still there, and better yet, they're in an alliance with each other. If the Baylor/Missy/Jon/Jaclyn alliance teams up with Jeremy & Natalie, they'll be in great shape against a Josh/Reed/Alec/Wes alliance. Julie & Keith are unknowns but I'd guess that Keith will join up with his son on the losing side & Julie will stick with Jeremy unless/until she quits. And any alliance that's relying on Wes, Alec & Keith to be well-informed & have a clear idea of what the strategy is doesn't really have a chance. 

3. Queers & Foreigners - Reed finally got some air time! Granted, he was one of two players in a challenge, so it's hard for him to NOT get air time. And while his Spiderman skills were impressive, even more impressive was Natalie's game play. As with everything she does, it's a little too... loud... for my tastes. Still, she's making moves & there aren't that many contestants on this season who are perceptive enough to understand what she's doing. Julie is currently the odds-on favorite to be the quitter, though, so this team is still ranked 3rd in my book.  

4. The Buffoons -It's weird to see the Buffoons currently sitting in 3rd place in the point rankings, but I'm not fooled! The Buffoons are aptly named & disinclined to come up with their own ideas or strategy. With a merge on the horizon they need to be prepared to make moves, understand alliances, etc. I don't think they get any of that. Actually I think that Alec would leave the show happily at any time now that he's outlasted his brother.


Douche of the Week:

If my favorite op ed writer could vote I'm guessing he'd vote Reed for trying to spin sending Julie to exile as a compliment rather than a punishment. Certainly a valid argument! Jeremy is also a strong candidate for griping about his tribe giving up comfort items for food. (Thank goodness he kept his opinions to himself & the camera!) However, I'm going to vote for Jon for believing that Dale's fake idol was real. Thank you, Jaclyn, for pointing out that it could be fake, but Jon immediately disregarded this notion. I sense a chauvinistic streak in him, but maybe I'm overthinking it and he's only just dumb.