Redemption Island: Episode 13

Only a few days before the finale, and there's so much left unresolved! Who will return from Redemption Island? Does Grant really think that Rob wasn't the one who blindsided him? Can Rob ever be defeated?

I liked last night's episode even though most of the contestants got really whiny. Especially Rob. He kept complaining about how hard it was to win... Bullshit! He's an Olympic-level athlete who's been skiing down a bunny slope this whole season; just because he hit a slightly icy patch doesn't mean he can complain about how difficult it's been.  

Usually at this stage we have a pretty clear idea of who will win the pool. This season, it's still totally up in the air. What we do know is this:

- at the bare minimum I'm guaranteed to win 40 more points

- at the bare minimum Moon's guaranteed to win 5 more points (he'll win at least 10 jury points, but could lose 5 points for an idol misplay)

- at the bare minumum Doug/Bri are guaranteed to win 20 more points

- at the bare minumum Dachui are guaranteed to win 20 more points

... which means that Dachui will need to win more than 48 points at the bare minimum in the finale to have a chance. Is this possible? Absolutely. This also means that if you calculate in people's guaranteed points above, Saggy Bottom Panties actually has a slight lead over Cockydoodlebug! 

Ooooh, I just remembered that we are awarding 5 points this season to the fan favorite. Who on earth will that be? I see 3 likely candidates: Boston Rob (the only conniver in the group), Phillip (the sadistic viewers' favorite), or Matt (the underdog favorite). I don't see anyone this season running away with this, which will keep the suspense going. Having this fun surprise at the end is great, especially in a game that's so close!

The Standings 
Team Cockydoodlebug: Doug/Bri - 93 pts
1. Grant (36 pts)

[2. Rooster (29 pts)]
3. Andrea (28 pts)

Team #Winning!: Moon - 85 pts
1. Boston Rob (49 pts)
[2. David (23 pts)]
[3. Krista (13 pts)]

Team Saggy Bottom Panties: Me - 75 pts
1. Phillip (18 pts)
2. Ashley (30 pts)
3. Natalie (27 pts)

Team Fabioesque: Dachui - 47 pts
1. Mike (19 pts)
2. Matt (13 pts)
[3. Stephanie (15)]

Team Evil Crushell: Courtney - 46 pts
[1. Evil Russell (10 pts)]
[2. Sarita (11 pts)]
[3. Julie (25 pts)]

Team Haterz Gonna Hate: Bag - 33 pts
[1. Francesca (0 pts)]
[2. Kristina (10 pts)]
[2. Steve (23 pts)]

Power Rankings

1. Team #Winning! - This competition will come down to who returns from Redemption Island. A strong competitor coming back from RI (like Mike, Grant, or Matt) could return & potentially win immunity in the next couple challenges to earn their way into the finals. A returned Zapatera member would probably sweep the Purple Jury votes, and possibly some pissed off Ometepe's too (Andrea perhaps?). Rob needs to make sure this doesn't happen if Moon is to win the pool.

2. Saggy Bottom Panties - I'm guaranteed to have at least 1 person make the finals, but man wouldn't it be cool if all 3 of them did? I know that won't happen, but I'm still astounded that I have 3 players still in. 3 players whose names have barely even been mentioned when discussing who to vote out. Fingers crossed that Natalie decides to stick with Ashley!

3. Team Cockydoodlebug - I think having Grant sent to RI has given Doug/Bri their best chance to win this pool. Grant was happy to make it to the finals with Rob, and he wouldn't have beaten him. But now, maybe Grant will get pissed off & come back from RI ready to take Rob out. Not saying he'll succeed at this, but it's better than his other plan.

4. Team Fabioesque - They aren't out of it, although it's the least likely scenario I've come up with. But totally possible. I'd like to see Matt get back to the tribe one last time to see him try to scheme one last time. But if I were Team Fabioesque I'd be pulling for Mike to get back since he's by far the more competent player.

5. Evil Crushell - Julie for fan favorite? She was certainly mine.

6. Team Haterz Gonna Hate - Steve for fan favorite? He earned it by handling Phillip's Crazy Tirade as well as can be expected.