Winners At War: Episode 7

Some of you might not know why #Vytas is a punchline in this pool. Vytas first appeared on the Blood vs. Water season with his younger brother Aras, who'd already won a season. Vytas was posited as a recovered addict with a new lease on life. He arrived with a well-rounded game, but two characteristics really stood out: deep wisdom earned the hard way and sensational charisma. Vytas played impressively, escaping some nasty jams along the way. In one instance, a tribal shakeup marooned him on a new tribe with four players who'd been tribemates and hardly knew Vytas. They lost the challenge, but Vytas worked his magic, endeared himself to his new teammates and got them to vote someone else out. Ultimately Vytas was offed along with his Aras in a conspiracy led by eventual champion Tyson. But in one season Vytas managed to mend his damaged relationship with Aras and capture the hearts of millions of viewers.

One of those hearts was mine. I fell hard for Vytas. His performance on Blood vs. Water was one of the strongest I'd seen. I thought he played great, but even more, I just really liked the guy. I wanted to be his friend.

The next season was a fan favorites edition and Vytas got another shot. Though the entire cast was popular returning players, we ranked Vytas tops (ahead of Jeremy, who'd go on to sweep Final Tribal 10-0-0). We drew the first pick in the draft and snapped Vytas up. The draft was the same night as the season premiere. Everyone excitedly went home and watched the first episode. Vytas, the first pick in the draft, was voted out first.

He didn't get screwed. He wasn't ousted by a cunning alliance that targeted him as a power player. He didn't wind up on some tribe of unflappable pre-existing allies. Vytas got voted out because he was a giant douchebag from the moment he stepped off the boat.

I don't know what the hell happened to Vytas in the months between his two appearances. Maybe the fame got to his head. Maybe he went in with a different strategy because he didn't win the first time. Maybe he fell off the wagon. Who knows? The point is, Vytas was not the same person as he was on Blood vs. Water. Just because we get to know a player one season doesn't mean we know who that player will be in another.

Some of these players appear to be the same people they were when they won Survivor. Jeremy, Natalie and Ben come to mind. Some of these players are on the Edge because they played the same as the seasons they won - because they didn't change. Boston Rob, Tyson and Parvati are obvious examples. Some players are pretty similar, but improved. Sophie, Sarah and Nick have come back stronger than the seasons they won. And some players have regressed.

Wendell is this season's Vytas. For whatever reason (including the edit, perhaps) he's not the same player. He cruised through his initial season almost effortlessly. He was strong and sensible and likable. This season he's been none of those things. But he's still in.

Yul is not.

Though it's been fourteen years since he originally competed, Yul's game hasn't regressed. He's been just as impressive this time around. He's been strong, sensible and likable. He dominated a softer season, but has shown an adaptability to shark-infested waters. At last night's Tribal, Yul noted he'd already had to lie more than he did his entire first season. He's affected the game as much or more than any other player. It sure feels like he's played better than Wendell.

Survivor lies somewhere between a poker tournament and a Plinko board. It's really hard to predict what will happen. The tribal shakeups are as random as two cards off the deck. Yul's fate this week was decided by half of a second. Win that challenge and they make the merge. It's a completely different game for Yul.

We're subject to the edit of who these people are rather than who they really are out there. Even if we could judge their personalities and demeanor, it's really hard to correlate qualities of a person to their success in the game. We're not even the ones playing Plinko/Poker - we're the ones betting on it.

Standings

MoonBee - 70 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 61 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 11
Tony - 10
Danni - 1

Baggins - 52 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 3
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 47 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 10
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 16
Natalie - 2

Phil - 45 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 10
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 27 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 3
Ben - 13
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Just when you thought Eric's team couldn't get any worse, Sandra Squared literally waived the white flag for a tasty -3 X 2. She's officially out of the running for GOAT. Fortunately for Eric's chances of avoiding WOAT, Boston Rob redeemed him by somehow landing three separately-located tokens before six of his opponents could. Prediction: Rob gives at least one of his newly-acquired tokens to his wife. Rob now appears most likely to challenge Natalie in a battle royale to return from the Edge. Here's hoping it's Natalie - for the sake of the show and our team - who gets back in the mix.


5. Baggins

Since Bag's team isn't worth discussing, this is a good time to talk about the player nobody has - Kim. She's settled into an alliance with Jeremy and Tony. If that alliance falls on the wrong side of a tribal vote, those big guns would likely be targeted ahead of Kim. She's making a lot of drafters, especially Bag and Eric, look silly.


4. Doug

Yul was a better first-round pick than Wendell in every way but the only one that mattered. He deserved better. Survivor's a cruel game, though we can't feel too bad for the few who've won it before. Yul will go down as one of the game's most venerable players, no matter his efforts on the Edge.


3. Ben & Michal

Tony needs to step it up to have a chance. Yul talked about how nice he was, but it appeared during last week's Spy Shack his alliance doesn't really respect his game. Tony needs to embellish his social, physical and strategic resumés post-merge.


2. Phil

I noted last week that Michele and Wendell were likely to battle soon. It appears I was wrong. They had the opportunity to off one another but opted for Yul instead. It's tough to tell why. Was it because they have a stronger connection with each other than they had with Yul, despite their tension? Was it because Yul was viewed as a more formidable endgame threat? Was it ageism? I really don't know. It does appear the Michele/Wendell hook-up is back on - only in terms of voting. Phil has a shot if that duo persists, as the rest of his team is strong in spite of the Ethan grenade.


1. MoonBee

Three seasons ago - the season Adam ultimately led us to a blowout victory - Pickett infamously ranked us last to begin the season and only begrudgingly inched us up the rankings as our team persisted and others fell apart. I talked a lot of trash in the comments about our ranking. The thesis of the trash talk was math, not personality: our players might not have been impressive, but they were numerous.

Hopefully I made the same mistake this season. I've been hesitant to move us up the rankings despite the numbers advantages we have. But Yul's offing has made those numbers too hard to ignore. We have a nine-point edge on the second-place Greenbergs. We have a one-player advantage and 25 points on Phil. We have at least two players on everyone else.

But this perch is tenuous. Seemingly every player we had was mentioned as a voting target in the "Next Time On." Adam's removal would knock us down to three players. And Sophie is the only confidence-inspiring player on our team. The math is with us, but all it takes to change that is one random bounce down the Plinko board. 

Winners At War: Episode 6

DVR has changed my life. Almost everything I watch is on DVR. Even in the COVID Era, I still wait to watch my favorite shows (AKA Survivor) until the perfect moment. My friends know not to text me about sporting events until the next day. Sports, of course, are far less exciting if you know the outcome - and so is Survivor. While knowing the result of a Tribal Council is ruinous, I do enjoy getting a friendly text that simply reads "Did you watch Survivor?" That's a tip-off the episode is going to be dramatic.

Thursday I got the text from an obviously-excited Phil. He added that it was epic and "a game winning play was made." It did turn out to be a thrilling episode, but the significance Phil put on it was overblown. Denise was not in contention for the $2 million, and neither was the player she ousted. Sandra was the last vestige of the Old School, an elementary that's been relocated to the Edge of Extinction. Perhaps Denise's big move vaults her into the mix, but I'll explain later why her splash at Tribal revealed more desperation than competence.

The real season has yet to begin. Everything that's happened thus far is just table-setting. The old guard has been systematically quarantined to the Edge like a batch of South Korean COVID-positive patients. The defining alliances have yet to crystallize. The true contenders have yet to develop the resumés they'll present to Final Tribal. The true players are patiently waiting to shift gears until the old guard has been eradicated and the three tribes become one.

Standings

MoonBee - 57 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 15
Adam - 10
Adam - 10
Ben - 10
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 55 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 11
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

Doug - 43 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 14
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 42 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 15
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 39 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 11
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 26 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 5
Sandra - 5
Tyson - 2
Ben - 10
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Sandra's demise was delicious for those who view her as a villain. Sandra was done in by all the elements she's based her game on over the years: aggressively parsimonious play, nefarious alliances and manipulation of "weak" players. It was fitting to see her toppled by Denise, who hadn't made a peep this season. It was a compelling reminder that every castaway this season is an accomplished assassin. There are no weaklings in Winners At War.

With just Ben left, Eric's putrid squad currently checks in two points behind Pickett's all-time worst score. Without digging through the archives, I'll say that ancient season had fewer than six players per pool team. It probably had far fewer ways to score points. And it certainly didn't have a cast of players we could have evaluated in advance. Ben and Eric's numerous Edge players have just one mission left: extricating this squad from the Hall of Shame.


5. Bag

It kinda looked like Wendell was serious about selling Parvati his Tribal vote for her tokens. And it kinda looked like Parvati folded rather than shove her chips in. And Parvati definitely got voted out after folding. While players like Yul and Sarah have aged into their vintage eras, Parv doesn't have that juice anymore. Her game is predicated on a thorough understanding of the social fabric of the game, dictating manipulation. This Parv was never fully plugged-in socially, so her manipulative skills - while still honed - were less applicable.

After selling an idol nullifier to Parv for a token, Tyson said "my only option" was to purchase a food item, but it appeared he could have bought an advantage in the return challenge. His justification for the peanut butter - both nutritional and psychological - was convincing. But he gets a -1 for using it on a comfort item. And you know Natalie would never do this. She's hoarding hers for that big moment. With the way Natalie plays, she might even return to the game with an idol in her pocket.


4. Phil

Wendell's choppy season continues. Sooner or later his tension with Michele is going to cost one of them the iron price, and I'm guessing it's Wendell. He's come off a bit douchey and detached this season. 

I critiqued the Parvati pick, but Sarah in the third round is a pick we should all be ashamed of. She's one of the leading contenders thus far, and can earn consideration for true GOAT status with a win this season. She has a rare ability to mask intense intelligence. She's a calm, well-rounded player with a heightened scent for lies. With Parvati and Sandra out of the running, Sarah would become the true GOAT with a victor this season.


3. MoonBee

Last week I talked about how crucial it was "our" tribe didn't win the challenge. This week it did, so we soared up the standings. It was especially helpful for Adam, who admitted he was on the wrong side of the ballot if it went to a vote. He'll likely be toast if he heads back to Tribal before the Merge - which didn't appear to be happening based on the "Next Time On...SURVIVOR." Ben's stock is rising too, but we likely have only one player who can win the game (two if we count Natalie).
 
Sophie continues to crush. She's quietly dominated this season and is rapidly moving up the list of all time GOATs. Her game is strategically based, but she's a highly likable, social player who's stealthily awesome in challenges. Sophie plays Survivor like poker - she plays the opponent, not the cards. She knew Rob's playbook and dispatched him without fuss. The best part is the MoonBee can root fully for her because Bag's team is hot garbage.


2. Doug

"I may end up burning an idol that I wish I had down the road," Denise said before Tribal. Then she burned an idol on Jeremy that she'll wish she had down the road. Why? Maybe because Denise is desperate for allies. She hasn't gotten much of an edit this season, and while the backstabbing of Sandra was an Et tu, Brute? move, the extra idol for Jeremy was a setback in real life and in the pool. It cost Denise 5 points.

Yul has picked up right where he left off 14 years ago. He never seems to draw consideration for a vote despite his alpha appearance and obvious electability. Sandra's donation of her token his way shows the respect and admiration his peers have for him - I don't think they had much actual contact. Nick made a wise decision to go with the guys and oust Parvati. He's playing his game and it continues to be the right season for it. But it's Jeremy that makes Doug ultra-dangerous. He's quietly slipped right back into the middle of the stream after a rocky entrance.


1. Ben & Michal

The Greenbergs have a 2 v 2 swap against Doug - their Sarah & Tony vs. Doug's Jeremy & Denise. This feels like a thin advantage for Ben & Michal, thinner because Doug has the Edge edge with Natalie vs. Danni. But the Greenbergs are currently up twelve points on Doug, so they get the ranking nod for now.

Winners At War: Episodes 4 & 5

I studied abroad in New Zealand for the second semester of my junior year in college. Dunedin, New Zealand was an awesome place, but I had no social life. I should've joined the trekking club, but didn't. I played ultimate frisbee twice a week and I watched Survivor with my flatmates once a week. The TV in the flat got three channels and two of them mostly showed music videos. One of the channels played some American and Australian shows, including American Survivor - which happened to be the first All-Stars season. I know it was an awesome season - with Amber emerging victorious over more ballyhooed All-Stars - but I know my opinion was biased because watching Survivor was the thing I looked forward to the most those days.

When I lived in Addis Ababa, we would bus down to the Radisson once a week to pilfer the only free high-speed wifi in town. I would download the latest episode and boot up like 25 Wikipedia articles to read over the next seven days. I had plenty of friends and activities, but Survivor was still the thing I looked forward to the most each week. That season was dominated by Kim, who led my team to an easy victory.

Corona has dazed and confused me over the last couple days. Not literally. I don't have corona. I'm just befuddled. Suddenly my days are looking a lot different. I don't really know what I'm going to do for work and I don't really know what I'm going to do for fun. I'm kind of dependent on sports for both. It's a weird, anxious time void of norms.

Except Survivor. That hasn't changed. That's still gonna be on every Wednesday (though this week's was interrupted by an address from the Oval Office. Cliffs notes for those who didn't watch online like me and Melissa: Wendell and Michele used to date. It didn't end well and Michele made it sound like it didn't end well because of Wendell). So I don't really know what I'll be doing for pleasure (or for business) the next couple months, but I do know there will be a Survivor episode once a week. And it will probably be my favorite thing to look forward to, because there won't be as much to look forward to and because Survivor: Winners At War is fucking awesome.

We all knew this would be an exceptional season but it's exceeding expectations. Edge of Extinction was an annoying distraction the first time but this time it's added intrigue. The 20x Log Walk last week was powerful theater, even by Survivor standards. The omnipresent intensity of the competitors and the epic prize they're competing for has deepened the drama. This may well go down as the greatest season ever played - perhaps because it actually is, perhaps because America's boredom is going to inflate its enjoyment.

 Standings

Ben & Michal - 47
Yul - 10
Parvati - 11
Sarah - 6
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

MoonBee - 37
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 10
Adam - 5
Adam - 5
Ben - 5
Natalie - 2

Doug - 36
Yul - 10
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 8
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 35
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 10
Parvati - 11
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 32
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 6
Ethan - -3
Michele - 10
Amber - 1

Eric - 23
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 6
Sandra - 6
Tyson - 2
Ben - 5
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

1. Ben & Michal 

With all her allies fallen, Parvati is going to have to play her best game ever to get deep in this game. It's unlikely, but the Greenbergs may not need her. The rest of this roster is stacked with solid players. Yul and Sarah would be #1 and #2 in my power rankings at this point. I also love how Tony's managed to curtail his game to this point - assuming he can flick the switch to Crazy Tony after the merge, find idols and bamboozle opponents.


2. Doug

With a balanced roster of under-the-radar grinders and beastly alphas, Doug has four players who tend to hang around and garner points. Nick's humble doofus routine is well-suited to hide in this mafia battle until the dust settles and he can garnish his resumé. Jeremy has overcome the early setback of losing Natalie and could get her back to make a formidable team down the stretch. Speaking of Natalie, her performance has been as impressive as anyone's this season even though she got voted out the first episode. She's a stupendous competitor.


3. Moon & Melissa

Our team's prospects would be much brighter if not for the puzzle meltdown of the tribe with most of our players last challenge. Adam squared, Sophie and Ben are all on that team. At least it was Rob who went home. But if this team loses again, we'll likely be losing a player. And the NEXT TIME ON hinted two teams will be losing next week.

But it's not just the swing of points. We still have five players and are second in points but our players just aren't looking good right now. Sophie has impressed, but Adam has been nervewracking to own all season, Ben isn't playing with confidence and now Wendell is in hot water.


4. Phil

Phil wound up with exes Michele and Wendell, who appear to be rather negatively correlated. They were playing solid games, but this shakeup has cast doubt on the chances of both. Phil also has Jeremy and Sarah, so cheerful prospects remain for the 40 year-old.


5. Bag

Boston Rob's exit was likely heavily edited to generate tribal intrigue. Admittedly, the edit was effective. I was on the edge of the couch wondering if Sophie would play her idol. Melissa and I discussed what a perfect situation this was for Sarah's Steal-A-Vote. And it was compelling theater to watch the Godfather run a communication suppression scheme like an authoritarian president. But it didn't work and it didn't appear close to working. Adam and Ben promptly voted Rob out and there wasn't really evidence they considered otherwise. When the votes were read, Melissa and I felt confident our strategy of avoiding power legends like Rob was correct - and Baggins was left drawing nearly dead.


6. Eric

Big Eric was also foolish enough to draft Rob in the first round. I don't think Eric intentionally targeted power legends - I believe his strategy was more like "Oh, I've heard of them!" - but obviously it hasn't worked. If Sandra follows the route pioneered by Amber, Tyson and Rob, Big Eric could post one of the worst scores ever recorded in this pool.

Winners At War: The Draft & Episode 3

Michal has ceded control of the blog to me. She's caught in a maelstrom of coronavirus concerns, toddlers and grad school. So it's understandable. It feels wrong to see someone else running the pool for the most anticipated season in Survivor history, but I'm taking the responsibility seriously. I watched the preview trailer five times in a row when it debuted on last season's reunion special. I'm beyond fired up for the season. I'll do my best.

Speaking of last season, Michal and the blog, we never got a final post on that one. I note this because 1) Phil has mentioned like four teams that his team surged in the finale and he wanted to see where they wound up (add it up yourself if you're so desperate to know) 2) the Greenbergs made fun of me for never posting a Bachelor finale blog one forgettable season and 3) Bag actually won the pool and that should be celebrated with the same surprise and amazement we reserve for sightings of Halley's Comet.

Here's how this is going to work: I'm generally going to lead the blog off with a graphic of the Standings. Then I'm going to power rank the teams, wherein I'll talk about some of what went down in the last episode. I'm gonna do my best to score the players each episode, but I'm probably going to make mistakes. Some points I'll just miss and some I won't understand properly. Fortunately responsible Doug is double-checking and interpreting these points. He even did so unprompted last night. Cheers Doug! I also recommend tracking the points yourself if you want to make sure your players are receiving all the points they should.

A few notes on points:

• I gave Ethan -3 for his "finish" yesterday. My understanding is that players are supposed to get -1 pts for each spot short of the jury they fall. Since we don't yet know how many players will make the jury, this -3 is a placeholder. When we actually know, I'll go back and give players their true negative score.
• This is further complicated by the Edge of Extinction. I propose we consider Edge players to be "voted out." So while a player like Ethan is technically still alive, he's going to get a -3 for getting voted out.
• Ethan got an additional -1 for getting voted out before a dreg. We have one true Dreg this season: Kim (an excellent, balanced player who should have been drafted twice, let alone once). Kim is going to haunt us all. Any player voted out before her is going to get saddled with a negative.
• Players who sit out challenges do receive points if their team wins the challenge (fortunately for Eric, who has Sandra Squared).
• If this challenge is a dual reward/immunity challenge (which I expect most pre-merge challenges to be), it counts as both and therefore 5 points for the victors.
• All token activity garners a point. If a player buys something that costs X tokens, that player gets X points. If a player sells something for X tokens, that player gets X points - not to mention the tokens which they can later spend. Natalie (hilariously below Danni on Eric's list) got a point for this last night.

Holler in the comments if you have an issue with any of these rules and rulings.

Standings

Power Rankings

  
If you'd like to name your team, do so in the comments. Until then, I get to name the teams.


1. Yul Live and Yul Learn (Greenbergs)

Parvati drew an early target, but escaped thanks to Adam's loose lips. The longer the game goes on the better for crafty vets like Parv, who sticks out like a sore thumb on the Greenberg team. The rest of these castaways are tough, even-keeled grinders currently on the other tribe. Until further notice, that's the preferable tribe.

Yul is the only other old-schooler on the team (though he's more of an ancient-schooler). He's picked up right where he left off in dominating Cook Islands. Meanwhile, Sarah and Tony have forged a cautious-but-solid cop alliance. They're ultra-wary of each other but recognize the advantage of a little common ground in an earthshaking season.


2. Vytas 2.0 (MoonBee)

Though we weren't confident about it, Melissa & I decided the appropriate strategy for WaW was to avoid the Big Guns. We elected to steer clear of ultra-powerful players with dominant reputations. Every WaW is actually a powerhouse, but some are more known for it. The thinking: there will be no sheep, goats or other farm animals this season. Thus it will be harder for dominant players to assemble and maintain alliances. Further, the superpower players will likely be aggressively targeted by their savvy competitors, each a former winner versed in championship protocol.

This ruled out the likes of Rob, Parvati and Tony. It also gave a demerit to Tyson, whose dominating run spearheaded one of our championships. The key decision was whether to double down on Adam or get Tyson coming back in round 4. I decided to square Adam over Melissa's objection. Adam instantly nearly went down in infamy as Vytas 2.0, stupidly spilling the beans on a blindside to the blindsidee's top allies. Adam talked about how selective honesty endeared him to key voters during his season, but that was the kiddie game. That shit ain't gonna fly in WaW. Adam and the MoonBee are very lucky he escaped episode three, but he's now in hot water with his entire tribe. Nobody trusts him and there's nobody he can rely on. That's not the kind of player you want to have two of.


3. Yul Regret That (Bri & Doug)

I got a glimpse of Doug's famous spreadsheet at Post the other night. The man doesn't mess around. It has it all. It led to what I thought was a sterling draft. But Bri & Doug have to be regretting the Ethan pick. He displayed little during the first two episodes other than an appreciation for life and a brown nose for Rob. And now he's going to wilt away on the Edge.

Why did Jeremy, Michele and company knock him out? They explained how imperative it was to break up the old-school Rob/Parvati/Ethan alliance. Fine. Why slaughter a foot soldier when you could assassinate the king? Was it necessary to abandon the Parv Plan just cause Adam spilled it? We know Adam wanted to weaken Rob without angering him, but it wasn't Adam who called the shot. (It appeared they didn't even tell Adam and he cast the one vote for Parv). It was almost as if they feared repercussions from the Godfather, even from the isolation of the Edge.


4. The Edge of Extinction: Turning 40 (Phil)

I think Phil drafted a terrific team. We had Wendell, Jeremy and Sarah in the top tier and Michele may be the most underrated player to ever play the game. She fits the precise profile of who I expect to win this battle of beasts: a below-the-radar player with sneaky athleticism, strategy and social skills. Watch for her to make a deep run and dunk on the other five of us for not taking her.

Phil's problem is the same as Bri & Doug's: he already finds himself 15 points behind the Greenbergs and down a player.


5. The Godfather Part III (Bag)

Bag went with classic old-school legends: Boston Rob, Parvati, Tyson and Tony. Strong players all, but not the motif I expect to control this game. Bag annoyingly veered from this strategy to snag Sophie, preventing us from doubling her. It's a team that could conceivably catch fire if a post-merge old-school alliance seizes power, but it seems more likely they'll be persecuted and Bag will finish last.


6. Big Eric: Big Fish (Eric)

Eric has established that he's really bad at this. He doesn't seem to be improving, as this could be his worst draft yet. Eric doesn't deserve full blame for this debacle, as he didn't intend to draft Sandra twice. This request was lost in the transfer of Eric's proxy draft due to The Post's scanty WiFi. Apologies to Eric, but these are the vagaries of proxying your picks.

Double Sandra deepens Eric's dependence on the Old School. Two problems with this stratagem: the inclination I mentioned earlier that the Old School will struggle this season, and the possible feud between Rob and Sandra. If both manage to last to a merge or realignment, perhaps they'll realize they need each other to hang in the game. Until then both should be viewed as unsafe players with low challenge upside. 

Survivor Episodes... oh, a lot

There's a few episodes to cover, but I'm actually going to start by going back to Ye Olde Mhost Upsetting Episode. There was a lot of anger directed at Missy and Elizabeth. I spent a lot of time thinking about why they might not have seen the line the crossed, when it seems so obvious to us. I am not them and I'll never really know why they made the decisions they did.

I have a theory all the same.

I think it's because they are super competitive/professional athletes. (I'm not sure if Missy is a full-fledged a professional, but she's clearly on a high level.) And I think female athletes might just live in a world where there is unwanted/unasked for touching, particularly by older males. If that's what your reality has been for most of your life, I have the sense that maybe that line just isn't so clear. So I'm not going to rage about them. Their behavior was disappointing, but I'm thinking this is more symptomatic of American sports culture than it's about these two women being horrible people.

Moving on. Karishma was my MVP of the next episode. She spent an hour finding an idol and raised no eyebrows because she simply pretended to be sick. She has had no allies, rewards aka food, or immunity wins all season long. And yet she's still fighting and looking for a way in. I don't imagine that I would be Karishma's friend. But I respect the scrappiness. Or, to put a silly poker analogy out there: she's been the short stack the entire season, and she's been forced to play that kind of strategy. It's not pretty & it's not fun. But she's really good at it and is "leveling up" nicely.

I loved the double tribal where they split up and voted out Aaron and Missy consecutively. It was the correct play made all the sweeter by the fact that neither of them saw it coming.

And moving on again...

Elizabeth unremarkably went home in the episode after that - you know, the one where Dean glommed on to the phrase "goat army" and seemed to think he'd made some kind of groundbreaking revelation. I could make a goat/woat joke here, but that's sooo 2018, so instead:

Dean, in case this wasn't clear: me and baby goat are on the same page.

Highlight of this episode was Lauren's epic rise and fall in my estimation of her. She did really well with her IoI challenge and ability to read people. Then she insta-blew the advantage she'd earned by frantically playing her idol at the slightest whiff of danger. She might be cleverer than most people left in this game, but she's no match for type of game-play we should see in Season 40! (Note: I could not get my "i'm so freaking excited" meme to paste correctly. But believe me I am.)

Side note: is there any doubt that this season has had by FAR the most idol misplays (or lack of plays) in any Survivor season ever? It hurts to watch. Not literally though. And it certainly makes me question the quality of the castaways this season (well, that and the whole Karishma obsession... see below).

And now we're back to real time and this latest episode full of mishaps and buffoonery. A couple of highlights:

• Dean just about joined the Goat Army. Maybe that's why he bailed on the plan at the last minute. Not because he couldn't trust Noura to follow through on the plan. But because he mentally and emotionally couldn't imagine himself to be a goat. But you are, Dean. You really are.
• Noura's inability to do math properly on this one was unsurprising to me. She can't slow down enough. It's probably partly due to the sleep deprivation, starvation, and paranoia that comes with the game... but it's likely largely due to this being the way she is all the time.
• It's just sad that Karishma got voted out. I mean, why? Watching this "core 4" strategize is like watching my 3 year old playing that card game memory. When she doesn't get a match she obsesses over it. Picks the same 1st card every time and won't move on until she gets that match. It's a terrible strategy and it drives me nuts - both for memory and Survivor. And these are adults, not toddlers whose brains are still developing basic functions. There is no chance that Karishma wins (though I had a theory she could win in a final tribal that was Dean + Karishma + Noura... but even that was probably wishful thinking). So why on earth are you so obsessed with voting her out?
• What makes it worse is that literally no one is talking to her during the tribal council frenzy. The utter lack of respect that they show her is upsetting and insulting. Noura's rant after the reward challenge included a line like "they think I'm as useless as Karishma?!?!" (or something to that effect) in front of Karishma. And she just had to sit there and take it. That really sums up the kind of treatment she's been receiving for 30+ days. No wonder she was a blubbering mess when she saw her husband - his was the first kind face she'd seen in a month.
• Kellee says "these are the dumbest plays" to Jack as they wrap up tribal council and I couldn't agree more. Kellee, should you ever return to this game you will be my #1 draft pick. I heart you. 

Power Rankings:

I think Bag's got this one. 

Survivor Episode 8+9, and NOT 10

It took me a while to watch this mega episode. Maybe it's because my obsession with the new series Watchmen has transcended TV and now I'm devouring the graphic novel as well. But mostly it's because I had an inkling of what was in store and didn't want to have a shitty night.

In what has felt to me like an overwhelmingly supportive and positive season, there were absolutely no feel-good moments this time around. This could have been a momentous episode for far more lighthearted reasons. End Boss Kellee v. End Boss Missy is a fight that I wanted to see. What we got instead was Survivor gameplay at its worst.

I'm skipping any attempt at a recap because I really have just summary points to make:

Who were the winners here? 
No one.

Who were the losers?
Let's hit the highlights: all women, particularly the women on this season of Survivor. Which in itself is also particularly unfair. Somehow a man making a woman/women feel unsafe/uncomfortable has resulted in all the women coming out looking like bad guys. How is that possible?

Let's get into the really nasty stuff first, though, and then maybe we can end on a high note (though no promises):

- Dan.  In Tribal #2 his a refrain of "Why won't you let this go?" reeks. Kellee has been thinking the same thing for 20+ days. She TOLD YOU to back off. You did not. His response in imitating someone being uncomfortable as he accidentally brushed by someone around a crowded fire belittled Kellee's experience in their interactions. And he partially defended himself by claiming to come from the industry that produced the MeToo movement, while blatantly ignoring the fact that the same industry also produced Harvey Weinstein. I get that I am watching a TV show and that I clearly don't have all the facts. But I also find it hard to accept his response to what happened as being remotely close to acceptable. Whether he's a real sketchball or not, I'm not sure. But  that's the point. As Moon noted: "I don't believe his touchiness is sexual or nefarious. But it obviously disturbs his tribemates. They told him to stop and he hasn't." That's the point.

- Aaron. Aaron is such a fucking douchebag that I'm removing him from my team. Seriously. Touchy Dan too for that matter. Aaron: you are an ass hat. "I have a mom and sisters so I'm clearly sensitive to this issue" is a bullshit stance. Fun fact: we all have mothers, it comes as a package deal with human existence. Doesn't mean women have been treated fairly or respectively through human history. Jamal actually defends Aaron in his exit interview, which I think attests to Jamal's character. But if Aaron really didn't have enough real info to recognize what was going on then maybe he should pay more attention, listen more closely, and start considering that maybe he's not the king of the universe.

Okay, and here are some highlights:

- Kellee. Kellee played a fantastic game up until she trusted Lauren in the 11th hour of tribal council. She spoke her truths and anticipated what would happen if she made a big deal out of what was happening. And she was right. Hopefully Survivor history will recognize her as a kick ass player and not because of what happened. Because if you remove all the harrassment/uncomfortableness/gender biases that went down here, what we're really looking at is a showdown between Kellee and Missy. And Kellee wasn't going to have the numbers, or at best it would have been really close. So she should have played an idol.

- Janet. This is the sort of leadership that we need more of in this day and age. She's playing a game where people are expected to lie, manipulate, and back-stab each other. And she still knew exactly when a line was crossed, and stood behind that even though it was going to cost her. When she said "This has become a moral issue" then maybe she shouldn't have tried to address that issue via the avenues of the game. Maybe she should have had a more serious conversation with the producers at that point. But that's not a detail to get too hung up on. Janet did was she believed was right, and then got villified for it afterwards.

- Jamal. Say what you will about Jamal, the man has character. He may be bossy at times, but he is also compassionate, eloquent, intelligent, and sensitive. I really think what Jamal said during Tribal #2 is about as good as it gets when it comes to difficult issues like this. (Side note, though: he really needs to work on his meta game. The way he used that IoI advantage was a D+ effort.)

- Survivor. After finishing this episode I was left with intense feelings of anxiety, sadness, and anger. And for that, Survivor, I thank you. Survivor producers forced us all to experience and process an emotionally challenging situation that is all-too-common in today's society. I think they easily could have reframed this in a way that diminished what happened to Kellee and how Missy and Elizabeth behaved. I did not have fun watching this episode. But it certainly gave me a LOT to think about, and I'd like to think that most viewers of the show will be able to at minimum recognize how complicated these kinds of situations can be. Survivor definitely made mistakes on this one, but I appreciate that they didn't shy away from showing these events anyway.

Survivor 39: Episodes 6 & 7

Despite my bold claims in my last post, Dean is somehow still in this competition. Guess I'm maybe not as good at this game as I thought... and our team's score backs that up!

Episode 6 was super interesting. I love the dynamic of the Vokai 4 starting out thusly: "We're totally going to rocks, we have no doubts at all. We're so strong. And by the way we think we're smarter than you, cooler than you, and our farts smell like roses." And then Elaine pulls out her secret advantage, and they be like:



Okay, my attempt to find Lauren actually crying on the show was a bust. But this gif from what I can only assume is from Breaking Bad is a close 2nd. Plus, the upside is that I found this gem of an article: https://ew.com/recap/survivor-season-39-episode-6/.

Except that I disagree with everything this writer says about Aaron. First, and obviously most importantly, Kevin Bacon only won in his Footloose game of chicken because of a shoelace entanglement. Not because he was brave and bold.

Second, I think Aaron should had stuck with original Vokai and screwed over his original alliance. Maybe I'm on a self-destructive kick here, but that just made more sense to me. He seemed to get along with them really well, he could assimilate during the chaos of the impending merge, and come out the other side on the majority alliance and feeling pretty comfortable.

Instead, he's back-stabbed potential alliance by bold-faced lying to them and anchored himself to a minority alliance who just got the "beyond the grave" message from Jason of "don't trust Aaron."

But I do applaud this article's deep dive into the durag incident, the history of Survivor, and any mention of Probst being a great host. Because let's all admit it, the man is a great host. One of the best in my opinion, along with this guy:

But back to social awareness: Jamal and Jack had a really important and meaningful conversation where they both came out looking like stand-up guys. When does that ever happen in reality TV? I may throw a lot of shade Survivor's way, especially ever since they introduce that horrifyingly bad fire challenge when down to 4. But this show really does have its moments.

Okay, I could go on, but quite frankly the article linked above will do it better. Plus I have a whole other episode to get to... and it's a good one too!

Keeping in theme with this post (but not, I promise, for the whole season) here's another Not-My-Recap that's totally worth reading: https://ew.com/recap/survivor-season-39-episode-7/.  There's a deep dive into the "claims of women's alliances are sexist" theme of the tribal council that's super interesting. The author also really loves Kellee, and so do I. So we're clearly meant to be besties. Except that this guy's blog is so popular that Survivor pays for him to go on site and gets to test-run the challenges, so maybe this is more of a #frenemies situation. How has this blog not become internationally renowned, I ask you!?!

In any case, the talk of the town has to be Kellee's saving Dean and ousting Jack. To what end, Kellee? To what end? I'm all about the resume builder, but can she really trust Dean? And is it really a good idea to subvert your own majority alliance right before diving into a post-merge world? Am I opposed to this move just because I'm salty that Dean is still in the game? And if I keep asking questions and not blogging about the pool will you still read on?

Probably not, so let's get to it:

Power Rankings

1. Baggins - Tommy and Missy have been impressive all season, but even more importantly, Elizabeth is looking much savvier than her inaugural visit to the Island of the Idols. This team is poised to win individual challenges as well as drive many of the upcoming votes.

2. MoonBee - Another really good team, with Janet who continues to prove herself wise, crafty, and brazen.

3. Eric - Eric has Kellee and she's not on my team, which means there's hope! There's a nice mix of strategy and physicality on this team that I like. Plus Elaine is a dark horse that can't be ignored. I think this team has a shot, despite the Two Toms setback.

4. Phil - Has 5 players that made it to the merge which is huge... but 2 of them are Dean and I just can't help but feel like things aren't gonna end well because of it. Maybe it's just that this team feels like it's lacking in cleverness.

5. Michal & Ben - It feels like this season couldn't have gone worse for us, and yet we're somehow not the worst....

6. Doug & Bri - Will things turn around for this team now that we're merging? Karishma may end up earning them mad points via coattail riding. But I just don't think that will be enough to get this team a victory, and I don't see them earning a lot of points from challenges or idols either.