Winners At War: Episode 7

Some of you might not know why #Vytas is a punchline in this pool. Vytas first appeared on the Blood vs. Water season with his younger brother Aras, who'd already won a season. Vytas was posited as a recovered addict with a new lease on life. He arrived with a well-rounded game, but two characteristics really stood out: deep wisdom earned the hard way and sensational charisma. Vytas played impressively, escaping some nasty jams along the way. In one instance, a tribal shakeup marooned him on a new tribe with four players who'd been tribemates and hardly knew Vytas. They lost the challenge, but Vytas worked his magic, endeared himself to his new teammates and got them to vote someone else out. Ultimately Vytas was offed along with his Aras in a conspiracy led by eventual champion Tyson. But in one season Vytas managed to mend his damaged relationship with Aras and capture the hearts of millions of viewers.

One of those hearts was mine. I fell hard for Vytas. His performance on Blood vs. Water was one of the strongest I'd seen. I thought he played great, but even more, I just really liked the guy. I wanted to be his friend.

The next season was a fan favorites edition and Vytas got another shot. Though the entire cast was popular returning players, we ranked Vytas tops (ahead of Jeremy, who'd go on to sweep Final Tribal 10-0-0). We drew the first pick in the draft and snapped Vytas up. The draft was the same night as the season premiere. Everyone excitedly went home and watched the first episode. Vytas, the first pick in the draft, was voted out first.

He didn't get screwed. He wasn't ousted by a cunning alliance that targeted him as a power player. He didn't wind up on some tribe of unflappable pre-existing allies. Vytas got voted out because he was a giant douchebag from the moment he stepped off the boat.

I don't know what the hell happened to Vytas in the months between his two appearances. Maybe the fame got to his head. Maybe he went in with a different strategy because he didn't win the first time. Maybe he fell off the wagon. Who knows? The point is, Vytas was not the same person as he was on Blood vs. Water. Just because we get to know a player one season doesn't mean we know who that player will be in another.

Some of these players appear to be the same people they were when they won Survivor. Jeremy, Natalie and Ben come to mind. Some of these players are on the Edge because they played the same as the seasons they won - because they didn't change. Boston Rob, Tyson and Parvati are obvious examples. Some players are pretty similar, but improved. Sophie, Sarah and Nick have come back stronger than the seasons they won. And some players have regressed.

Wendell is this season's Vytas. For whatever reason (including the edit, perhaps) he's not the same player. He cruised through his initial season almost effortlessly. He was strong and sensible and likable. This season he's been none of those things. But he's still in.

Yul is not.

Though it's been fourteen years since he originally competed, Yul's game hasn't regressed. He's been just as impressive this time around. He's been strong, sensible and likable. He dominated a softer season, but has shown an adaptability to shark-infested waters. At last night's Tribal, Yul noted he'd already had to lie more than he did his entire first season. He's affected the game as much or more than any other player. It sure feels like he's played better than Wendell.

Survivor lies somewhere between a poker tournament and a Plinko board. It's really hard to predict what will happen. The tribal shakeups are as random as two cards off the deck. Yul's fate this week was decided by half of a second. Win that challenge and they make the merge. It's a completely different game for Yul.

We're subject to the edit of who these people are rather than who they really are out there. Even if we could judge their personalities and demeanor, it's really hard to correlate qualities of a person to their success in the game. We're not even the ones playing Plinko/Poker - we're the ones betting on it.

Standings

MoonBee - 70 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 19
Adam - 13
Adam - 13
Ben - 13
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 61 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 15
Nick - 11
Tony - 10
Danni - 1

Baggins - 52 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sophie - 19
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 3
Tony - 10
Amber - 1

Doug - 47 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 10
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 16
Natalie - 2

Phil - 45 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 10
Sarah - 15
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 27 points
Boston Rob - 6
Sandra - 2
Sandra - 2
Tyson - 3
Ben - 13
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Just when you thought Eric's team couldn't get any worse, Sandra Squared literally waived the white flag for a tasty -3 X 2. She's officially out of the running for GOAT. Fortunately for Eric's chances of avoiding WOAT, Boston Rob redeemed him by somehow landing three separately-located tokens before six of his opponents could. Prediction: Rob gives at least one of his newly-acquired tokens to his wife. Rob now appears most likely to challenge Natalie in a battle royale to return from the Edge. Here's hoping it's Natalie - for the sake of the show and our team - who gets back in the mix.


5. Baggins

Since Bag's team isn't worth discussing, this is a good time to talk about the player nobody has - Kim. She's settled into an alliance with Jeremy and Tony. If that alliance falls on the wrong side of a tribal vote, those big guns would likely be targeted ahead of Kim. She's making a lot of drafters, especially Bag and Eric, look silly.


4. Doug

Yul was a better first-round pick than Wendell in every way but the only one that mattered. He deserved better. Survivor's a cruel game, though we can't feel too bad for the few who've won it before. Yul will go down as one of the game's most venerable players, no matter his efforts on the Edge.


3. Ben & Michal

Tony needs to step it up to have a chance. Yul talked about how nice he was, but it appeared during last week's Spy Shack his alliance doesn't really respect his game. Tony needs to embellish his social, physical and strategic resumés post-merge.


2. Phil

I noted last week that Michele and Wendell were likely to battle soon. It appears I was wrong. They had the opportunity to off one another but opted for Yul instead. It's tough to tell why. Was it because they have a stronger connection with each other than they had with Yul, despite their tension? Was it because Yul was viewed as a more formidable endgame threat? Was it ageism? I really don't know. It does appear the Michele/Wendell hook-up is back on - only in terms of voting. Phil has a shot if that duo persists, as the rest of his team is strong in spite of the Ethan grenade.


1. MoonBee

Three seasons ago - the season Adam ultimately led us to a blowout victory - Pickett infamously ranked us last to begin the season and only begrudgingly inched us up the rankings as our team persisted and others fell apart. I talked a lot of trash in the comments about our ranking. The thesis of the trash talk was math, not personality: our players might not have been impressive, but they were numerous.

Hopefully I made the same mistake this season. I've been hesitant to move us up the rankings despite the numbers advantages we have. But Yul's offing has made those numbers too hard to ignore. We have a nine-point edge on the second-place Greenbergs. We have a one-player advantage and 25 points on Phil. We have at least two players on everyone else.

But this perch is tenuous. Seemingly every player we had was mentioned as a voting target in the "Next Time On." Adam's removal would knock us down to three players. And Sophie is the only confidence-inspiring player on our team. The math is with us, but all it takes to change that is one random bounce down the Plinko board. 

Winners At War: Episode 6

DVR has changed my life. Almost everything I watch is on DVR. Even in the COVID Era, I still wait to watch my favorite shows (AKA Survivor) until the perfect moment. My friends know not to text me about sporting events until the next day. Sports, of course, are far less exciting if you know the outcome - and so is Survivor. While knowing the result of a Tribal Council is ruinous, I do enjoy getting a friendly text that simply reads "Did you watch Survivor?" That's a tip-off the episode is going to be dramatic.

Thursday I got the text from an obviously-excited Phil. He added that it was epic and "a game winning play was made." It did turn out to be a thrilling episode, but the significance Phil put on it was overblown. Denise was not in contention for the $2 million, and neither was the player she ousted. Sandra was the last vestige of the Old School, an elementary that's been relocated to the Edge of Extinction. Perhaps Denise's big move vaults her into the mix, but I'll explain later why her splash at Tribal revealed more desperation than competence.

The real season has yet to begin. Everything that's happened thus far is just table-setting. The old guard has been systematically quarantined to the Edge like a batch of South Korean COVID-positive patients. The defining alliances have yet to crystallize. The true contenders have yet to develop the resumés they'll present to Final Tribal. The true players are patiently waiting to shift gears until the old guard has been eradicated and the three tribes become one.

Standings

MoonBee - 57 points
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 15
Adam - 10
Adam - 10
Ben - 10
Natalie - 2

Ben & Michal - 55 points
Yul - 11
Parvati - 13
Sarah - 11
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

Doug - 43 points
Yul - 11
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 14
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 42 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 15
Parvati - 13
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 39 points
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 11
Ethan - -3
Michele - 12
Amber - 1

Eric - 26 points
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 5
Sandra - 5
Tyson - 2
Ben - 10
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

6. Eric

Sandra's demise was delicious for those who view her as a villain. Sandra was done in by all the elements she's based her game on over the years: aggressively parsimonious play, nefarious alliances and manipulation of "weak" players. It was fitting to see her toppled by Denise, who hadn't made a peep this season. It was a compelling reminder that every castaway this season is an accomplished assassin. There are no weaklings in Winners At War.

With just Ben left, Eric's putrid squad currently checks in two points behind Pickett's all-time worst score. Without digging through the archives, I'll say that ancient season had fewer than six players per pool team. It probably had far fewer ways to score points. And it certainly didn't have a cast of players we could have evaluated in advance. Ben and Eric's numerous Edge players have just one mission left: extricating this squad from the Hall of Shame.


5. Bag

It kinda looked like Wendell was serious about selling Parvati his Tribal vote for her tokens. And it kinda looked like Parvati folded rather than shove her chips in. And Parvati definitely got voted out after folding. While players like Yul and Sarah have aged into their vintage eras, Parv doesn't have that juice anymore. Her game is predicated on a thorough understanding of the social fabric of the game, dictating manipulation. This Parv was never fully plugged-in socially, so her manipulative skills - while still honed - were less applicable.

After selling an idol nullifier to Parv for a token, Tyson said "my only option" was to purchase a food item, but it appeared he could have bought an advantage in the return challenge. His justification for the peanut butter - both nutritional and psychological - was convincing. But he gets a -1 for using it on a comfort item. And you know Natalie would never do this. She's hoarding hers for that big moment. With the way Natalie plays, she might even return to the game with an idol in her pocket.


4. Phil

Wendell's choppy season continues. Sooner or later his tension with Michele is going to cost one of them the iron price, and I'm guessing it's Wendell. He's come off a bit douchey and detached this season. 

I critiqued the Parvati pick, but Sarah in the third round is a pick we should all be ashamed of. She's one of the leading contenders thus far, and can earn consideration for true GOAT status with a win this season. She has a rare ability to mask intense intelligence. She's a calm, well-rounded player with a heightened scent for lies. With Parvati and Sandra out of the running, Sarah would become the true GOAT with a victor this season.


3. MoonBee

Last week I talked about how crucial it was "our" tribe didn't win the challenge. This week it did, so we soared up the standings. It was especially helpful for Adam, who admitted he was on the wrong side of the ballot if it went to a vote. He'll likely be toast if he heads back to Tribal before the Merge - which didn't appear to be happening based on the "Next Time On...SURVIVOR." Ben's stock is rising too, but we likely have only one player who can win the game (two if we count Natalie).
 
Sophie continues to crush. She's quietly dominated this season and is rapidly moving up the list of all time GOATs. Her game is strategically based, but she's a highly likable, social player who's stealthily awesome in challenges. Sophie plays Survivor like poker - she plays the opponent, not the cards. She knew Rob's playbook and dispatched him without fuss. The best part is the MoonBee can root fully for her because Bag's team is hot garbage.


2. Doug

"I may end up burning an idol that I wish I had down the road," Denise said before Tribal. Then she burned an idol on Jeremy that she'll wish she had down the road. Why? Maybe because Denise is desperate for allies. She hasn't gotten much of an edit this season, and while the backstabbing of Sandra was an Et tu, Brute? move, the extra idol for Jeremy was a setback in real life and in the pool. It cost Denise 5 points.

Yul has picked up right where he left off 14 years ago. He never seems to draw consideration for a vote despite his alpha appearance and obvious electability. Sandra's donation of her token his way shows the respect and admiration his peers have for him - I don't think they had much actual contact. Nick made a wise decision to go with the guys and oust Parvati. He's playing his game and it continues to be the right season for it. But it's Jeremy that makes Doug ultra-dangerous. He's quietly slipped right back into the middle of the stream after a rocky entrance.


1. Ben & Michal

The Greenbergs have a 2 v 2 swap against Doug - their Sarah & Tony vs. Doug's Jeremy & Denise. This feels like a thin advantage for Ben & Michal, thinner because Doug has the Edge edge with Natalie vs. Danni. But the Greenbergs are currently up twelve points on Doug, so they get the ranking nod for now.

Winners At War: Episodes 4 & 5

I studied abroad in New Zealand for the second semester of my junior year in college. Dunedin, New Zealand was an awesome place, but I had no social life. I should've joined the trekking club, but didn't. I played ultimate frisbee twice a week and I watched Survivor with my flatmates once a week. The TV in the flat got three channels and two of them mostly showed music videos. One of the channels played some American and Australian shows, including American Survivor - which happened to be the first All-Stars season. I know it was an awesome season - with Amber emerging victorious over more ballyhooed All-Stars - but I know my opinion was biased because watching Survivor was the thing I looked forward to the most those days.

When I lived in Addis Ababa, we would bus down to the Radisson once a week to pilfer the only free high-speed wifi in town. I would download the latest episode and boot up like 25 Wikipedia articles to read over the next seven days. I had plenty of friends and activities, but Survivor was still the thing I looked forward to the most each week. That season was dominated by Kim, who led my team to an easy victory.

Corona has dazed and confused me over the last couple days. Not literally. I don't have corona. I'm just befuddled. Suddenly my days are looking a lot different. I don't really know what I'm going to do for work and I don't really know what I'm going to do for fun. I'm kind of dependent on sports for both. It's a weird, anxious time void of norms.

Except Survivor. That hasn't changed. That's still gonna be on every Wednesday (though this week's was interrupted by an address from the Oval Office. Cliffs notes for those who didn't watch online like me and Melissa: Wendell and Michele used to date. It didn't end well and Michele made it sound like it didn't end well because of Wendell). So I don't really know what I'll be doing for pleasure (or for business) the next couple months, but I do know there will be a Survivor episode once a week. And it will probably be my favorite thing to look forward to, because there won't be as much to look forward to and because Survivor: Winners At War is fucking awesome.

We all knew this would be an exceptional season but it's exceeding expectations. Edge of Extinction was an annoying distraction the first time but this time it's added intrigue. The 20x Log Walk last week was powerful theater, even by Survivor standards. The omnipresent intensity of the competitors and the epic prize they're competing for has deepened the drama. This may well go down as the greatest season ever played - perhaps because it actually is, perhaps because America's boredom is going to inflate its enjoyment.

 Standings

Ben & Michal - 47
Yul - 10
Parvati - 11
Sarah - 6
Nick - 11
Tony - 8
Danni - 1

MoonBee - 37
Wendell - 10
Sophie - 10
Adam - 5
Adam - 5
Ben - 5
Natalie - 2

Doug - 36
Yul - 10
Jeremy - 8
Nick - 11
Ethan - -3
Denise - 8
Natalie - 2

Baggins - 35
Boston Rob - 3
Sophie - 10
Parvati - 11
Tyson - 2
Tony - 8
Amber - 1

Phil - 32
Wendell - 10
Jeremy - 8
Sarah - 6
Ethan - -3
Michele - 10
Amber - 1

Eric - 23
Boston Rob - 3
Sandra - 6
Sandra - 6
Tyson - 2
Ben - 5
Danni - 1

Power Rankings

1. Ben & Michal 

With all her allies fallen, Parvati is going to have to play her best game ever to get deep in this game. It's unlikely, but the Greenbergs may not need her. The rest of this roster is stacked with solid players. Yul and Sarah would be #1 and #2 in my power rankings at this point. I also love how Tony's managed to curtail his game to this point - assuming he can flick the switch to Crazy Tony after the merge, find idols and bamboozle opponents.


2. Doug

With a balanced roster of under-the-radar grinders and beastly alphas, Doug has four players who tend to hang around and garner points. Nick's humble doofus routine is well-suited to hide in this mafia battle until the dust settles and he can garnish his resumé. Jeremy has overcome the early setback of losing Natalie and could get her back to make a formidable team down the stretch. Speaking of Natalie, her performance has been as impressive as anyone's this season even though she got voted out the first episode. She's a stupendous competitor.


3. Moon & Melissa

Our team's prospects would be much brighter if not for the puzzle meltdown of the tribe with most of our players last challenge. Adam squared, Sophie and Ben are all on that team. At least it was Rob who went home. But if this team loses again, we'll likely be losing a player. And the NEXT TIME ON hinted two teams will be losing next week.

But it's not just the swing of points. We still have five players and are second in points but our players just aren't looking good right now. Sophie has impressed, but Adam has been nervewracking to own all season, Ben isn't playing with confidence and now Wendell is in hot water.


4. Phil

Phil wound up with exes Michele and Wendell, who appear to be rather negatively correlated. They were playing solid games, but this shakeup has cast doubt on the chances of both. Phil also has Jeremy and Sarah, so cheerful prospects remain for the 40 year-old.


5. Bag

Boston Rob's exit was likely heavily edited to generate tribal intrigue. Admittedly, the edit was effective. I was on the edge of the couch wondering if Sophie would play her idol. Melissa and I discussed what a perfect situation this was for Sarah's Steal-A-Vote. And it was compelling theater to watch the Godfather run a communication suppression scheme like an authoritarian president. But it didn't work and it didn't appear close to working. Adam and Ben promptly voted Rob out and there wasn't really evidence they considered otherwise. When the votes were read, Melissa and I felt confident our strategy of avoiding power legends like Rob was correct - and Baggins was left drawing nearly dead.


6. Eric

Big Eric was also foolish enough to draft Rob in the first round. I don't think Eric intentionally targeted power legends - I believe his strategy was more like "Oh, I've heard of them!" - but obviously it hasn't worked. If Sandra follows the route pioneered by Amber, Tyson and Rob, Big Eric could post one of the worst scores ever recorded in this pool.