Edge of Extinction: Ep 11

After catching up on a couple of chillingly accurate blog posts by Moon I'm back on the Survivor wagon & eager to see what comes next.

Sadly the story begins with Wardog at his worst as he rips on Gavin. Rick looks on smugly, like a cat that just got into cream. Soon after Ron, Rick, and Wardog plot like pretender mob bosses while Ben and I discuss how we'd like to see none of these castaways come back as veterans in future seasons. They are not likable, nor do I think they're all that good at playing Survivor.

Probst arrives to introduce the reward challenge, which I do not follow because I'm riveted by how unbelievably clean his shirt is. (I know this is random, but these are the consequences of a Pickett live-blogging.)

Wardog screws the pooch (get it?) by swimming to the wrong deck. Everything is ho-hum otherwise until Aurora enters the water and I'm again blown away by the physicality of this woman. She may be dumb as bricks but she is a challenge beast.

Then Probst calls Rick Gavin, and Eric's misstep in last week's blog comments is immediately validated. If Probst does it, then maybe we all should.

Julie, Lauren, Rick, and Wardog win the reward. Is this Lauren's first reward ever? (Note: I realize Wardog falls into the same category, but I don't particularly care about his well-being.)

Gavin plots his revenge during an unnecessary slow-mo of him swimming & then we cut to Reem reaming Kelley for almost no reason except that they might be spiking the well on the Edge with bitterness and bile. Would the Edge be 10 times more bearable if Reem didn't live on it like a menacing hermit? Overall this doesn't seem like a fabulous plot twist, but maybe it'd be better on a different, Reem-less season... I'd give the Edge one more try I suppose.

Cut to the mud bath reward & all I feel is uncomfortable. The mud rubbing is gross. Rick's dismissal of Julie & Lauren is repulsive. But fortunately we don't linger there long and soon are moving on to the immunity challenge. Which is kind of boring actually....

I think possibly one of the biggest problems with this season is the general puzzle ineptitude of the castaways. So many of these episodes end with them all looking around cluelessly and/or in frustration. Not the sort of thing that really draws you into the suspense of what's normally a pretty exciting few minutes of a Survivor episode.

Rick wins & now folks are deciding who to vote out. My mind gets blown as Wardog works Julie for her vote. Wardog is pushing for Aurora when Julie asks "Why should I believe you after the last vote?" to which Wardog responds "Well you were closer to Kelley than I was. You would've told Kelley, so I couldn't have told you. That makes sense, right?" Julie seemingly accedes to this nonsense, and I can't tell if she was just bullied that hard or if she maybe kind of believed him. But how could anyone agree to that statement after watching Wardog vote as a united block with Kelley on every vote that season? Madness!

Ultimately Wardog is too annoying to live with and/or the other castaways love Kelley so much they must take revenge. Hopefully the quality of play will start to improve now that he's gone.

The Teams:

• Baggins "Using My Rage Over Last Season to Draft Like a Pro" - 106 pts
• Eric "Eric" - 123.5 pts
• Doug & Bri "Well, That Sucked" - 118.5 pts
• Michal & Ben "The Hammer" - 114 pts
• MoonBee "Nerdy White Dudes" - 96 pts

Power Rankings

1. Eric - Eric's has a couple of bad episodes, but I still like his remaining roster best. Also I think his Edge players might have the best chance of getting back on the show (I keep thinking it'll be Wentworth who comes back). Really solid & consistent season from Eric so far, hopefully he can keep this mo' going!

2. Doug & Bri - need a new team name. What a comeback! I do think Eric has a slight edge with Gavin & Julie over Rick & Ron. But there's nothing certain in this season

3. MoonBee - I appreciated Moon's individual power rankings in no small part because he put Victoria as #1 overall. Which is how I've long felt about this quiet assassin. Sadly she's not earning any points so far, but I do think she's chock full of potential to take this season. 

4. Baggins - This team isn't great (sorry Bag) but they do have 1 more "live" player than we do, which means....

5. Michal & Ben - Ugh. Our "physical" players have been beyond disappointing & while I'm happy to cheer for a Victoria victory, it won't be enough unless we get someone back from the Edge. And I'm definitely not using my "one time!" on this season. 

DoW

I think it's safe to say at this point that DoW has run its course. I love the comments but I'm just gonna shut this aspect of the pool/blog down as far as scoring goes. I'm not keeping up with it & it's unfair to pretend.... but can I give Reem a Lifetime Achievement DoW here at the end of a much-loved legacy?

Edge of Extinction: Episode Ten

Survivor: Edge of Extinction has suddenly been whittled to just eight remaining castaways after the elimination of its last two returning players. Though at least one player on the Edge will return to the fray, we're undoubtedly entering the homestretch of a wobbly season. We've got a capricious group of greenhorns vying for the title. Let's break 'em down.


Player Power Rankings:

8. Aurora has no friends and no respect. She's an instantly-forgettable player who will never re-enter our conscious after her elimination. But in this wonky season she's scored a crapload of points. Aurora has scored 29, eight more than second-place Julie, sixteen more than third-place Gavin. It doesn't feel right, but she's grinding out the challenges.

7. Wardog is playing a Trumpian game. He’s incompetent, but pushes forward with relentless aggression. It hasn’t yet been worth it for anyone to stand up to him, so he's been getting his way.  But he isolates himself with erratic, paranoid decisionmaking, haphazardly ejecting his closest allies. He destroys most of what he touches and won't be able to win a final vote without cheating.

6. Lauren was an energetic player her first week or so in Fiji, but her vitality has waned. The lost challenges, endless tribals and lack of food drained Lauren's lifeforce, and Wentworth's ouster leaves her friendless. She has nothing to pin her hopes on, and could actually slip below zero points for the season if she misplays her idol.

5. Gavin hasn't made much of an impression, but neither had last season's champ Nick up to this point. Gavin resembles Nick in many ways, but his game isn't as whimsical or as inspired. Gavin appeared to be a ringleader early, or at least to dwell within the ring of leadership. Recently he's been an afterthought. He'd be wise to reunite with Victoria and soak up passengers like Aurora and Lauren to retake control of the game.

4. Ron has some annoying attributes, but he plays alright. An assessment of his game doesn't reveal anything particularly distinguishing, but there's enough acumen/fortitude/sociability here to defeat a relatively weak cast of opponents.

3. Rick has done it all. He's forged alliances and broken them. He's lost a dozen challenges and won individual immunity. He's tipped tribal council, been voted out, lived on the Edge of Extinction and rejoined the game. He's played astutely, lost his bearings and rediscovered them. With all the larger alliances and voting blocks disassembled, Rick has the social skills to maneuver his way to Final Tribal.

2. Julie has lost her wits on occasion, but generally plays with balance and rationale. She's got something cooking with Ron, an alliance that could potentially go the distance. 

1. Victoria was the Mob Boss early on, but has been bumped over to riding shotgun. She's accepted her demotion with humility, but you know she's keeping a list of adversaries she'll eventually take revenge on, Arya-style. Having endured a winter of loneliness without perishing, Victoria may now be ready to regain her seat at the head of the table.

Standings:

Eric - "Eric" - 121.5 pts

Eric - 23

David - 17.5

Gavin - 13

Wentworth - 18

Julie - 21

Aurora - 29 

It was a catastrophic hour for Big Eric, who lost two strong returning players in dubious fashion. Perhaps the lead story of the season so far is returning players misplaying idols. First Aubry got bamboozled with an idol in her pocket, then David used his one vote before he actually needed it, then Wentworth pulled an Aubry. It was an embarrassing exit for the veteran, who had played arguably her strongest game before exiting ignominiously. Barring an upset return from the Edge, this should be the last we ever see of Wentworth.

Doug & Bri - "Well, That Sucked" - 110.5 pts

Rick - 12.5

Chris - 13

Chris - 13

Ron - 12

Aurora - 29

Julia - 31 

Terrific episode for B&D, as they won both immunity challenges and watched their greatest rivals lose a key player to the Edge. Their team would morph into the pool's strongest if Chris was able to return from the Edge. If not, they need Rick + Ron to outscore Gavin + Julie by ten points to beat Eric.

Baggins - "Using My Rage Over Last Season to Draft Like a [redacted]" - 102 pts

Joe - 29

Eric - 23

Lauren - 3

Ron - 12

Julie - 21

Aubry - 14

Ron and Julie appear to be the strongest alliance left in the game. They also seem to have an element of control over the stretch, as their middling position gives them access to the fates of the remaining castaways. Should this duo remain allied and navigate their way to Final Tribal, they could spearhead the storybook victory Baggins (given just a 9% chance of victory one week ago) deserves.

Ben & Michal - "The Hammer" - 93 pts

Joe - 29

Lauren - 3

Wentworth - 18

Victoria - 7

Julia - 31

Wardog - 5

Prospects have dimmed to a flicker for the Greenbergs. Their three players who haven't been ousted have combined to score an anemic 15 points. Wardog won't be winning while Lauren and Victoria don't have much current footing or challenge potential. 

Moon & Melissa - "Nerdy White Dudes" - 69 pts

Rick - 12.5

David - 17.5

Gavin - 13

Victoria - 7

Wardog - 5

Aubry - 14

With the most remaining players and the most remaining competent players, the MoonBee has hope for another epic comeback. The deficit is a concerning 52 pts, but keep in mind each player voted out will immediately receive an escalating jury bonus starting at 18 pts.

Edge of Extinction: Episode Nine

The Kama Tribe has now fractured fully, or at least to the point where we can disregard tribal affiliation in our evaluations of the remaining castaways. Some bonds remain, but with Kama now having voted out three of its own in consecutive weeks, it's clear players are now fully focused on individual resumé-building. We'll examine each castaway's prospects next week. This week we'll take a snapshot of the teams and recklessly estimate their chances of winning the pool.


Standings:

Baggins "Using My Rage Over Last Season to Draft Like a [redacted]" - 104 pts
Joe - 29
Eric - 23
Lauren - 4
Ron - 13
Julie - 21
Aubry - 14
It looked like a revenge tour season for Baggins, but his prospects have soured. He's down to three players, Lauren isn't doing jack and Ron & Julie were recent victims of a backstabbing. Bag does have hope that one of his players could return from the Edge and garner some late points, but he'll need Team Eric to pop some leaks soon to have any shot.
Chances of winning: 9%

Doug & Bri - "Well, That Sucked" - 99.5 pts
Rick - 6.5
Chris - 13
Chris - 13
Ron - 13
Aurora - 23
Julia - 31
This sad squad drafted two self-destruction artists - one of them twice. Pitiful as Chris's immolation was, Julia's was even more spectacular. Those meltdowns leave Doug & Bri with recently-imploded Rick, uninspiring Ron and abysmal Aurora. Not exactly the Moses this long-suffering duo needs to guide them to the Promised Land.
Chances of winning: 7%

Eric - "Eric" - 90.5 pts
Eric - 23
David - 1.5
Gavin - 13
Wentworth - 9
Julie - 21
Aurora - 23
Big Eric Schwartz is tied for the most players left, has easily the two highest-scoring surviving players and another who's tied for third and sits in third place in the pool behind two teams with three players left. Schwartz is a solid favorite to win the pool right now with four savvy players plus high-scoring Aurora.
Chances of winning: 54%

Michal & Ben - "The Hammer" - 86 pts
Joe - 29
Lauren - 4
Wentworth - 9
Victoria - 8
Julia - 31
Wardog - 5
The loss of Julia leaves the Greenbergs with four single-digit points earners. Victoria is a cold-blooded strategist and Wentworth is playing a gritty game, but Lauren is a passenger and Wardog is woeful. The man is averaging just more than half a point per episode. Victoria may be the best player in the game, but The Hammer may have trouble garnering points around her.
Chances of winning: 14%

MoonBee - "Nerdy White Dudes" - 48 pts
Rick - 6.5
David - 1.5
Gavin - 13
Victoria - 8
Wardog - 5
Aubry - 14
Incorrectly playing an idol calls for a 5 point deduction in our pool. I gave David & Rick -2.5 each for unnecessarily playing their joint idol this week. With so many idols and advantages in play, I don't remember if they were forced to play it this episode. Remind me if they were and comment if you don't think -2.5 is fair. If this is correct, it drops David to a miniscule 1.5 points on the season. This team appears as strong as Eric's, but trails him by 42 points. That's a lot of ground to make up, especially with a couple redundant players.
Chances of winning: 16%

Survivor Extinction: Episodes 7 & 8

For the record, I don't really know how to keep score of this season. I am open to suggestions! Here's what I did: Keith & Wendy lost points for being 1st and 2nd out of the game respectively. Everyone else is now gaining jury points. I intend to take those points away & turn them into negative points should anyone quit at this point. However, I don't see that happening. Not now that they have twice as much of a reason to stay - jury vote plus a chance to get back into the game. but let me know what you think.

Now, back to the show itself - here's some notes from Ep 7:

• The Kama Six decided to vote out Joe perhaps a little prematurely. Maybe they felt safe doing so with the Lesu alliance in apparent shambles. But they cut Aurora out of the decision & now there's a Kama Six and six other players who may or may not band together. That kind of showdown would be a welcome addition to this season.
• Did anyone else get the impression that Joe was (maybe subconsciously) hoping to get voted out? He's been failing at the social game & knew he was on the outs. He might have decided that he'd have an easier time of it living on the Edge instead of in the thick of the strategic & social game. And quite frankly he might be right. Just sit on the sidelines, don't stress about providing for everyone else, and then crush it in one epic challenge & you're back in the game with just a couple challenges to go. He'll probably get less food but he'll also put his body under a lot less stress....
• And finally, Wentworth and David need to recognize that Kama has gone 2 for 2 in targeting & eliminating veteran players. If Wentworth doesn't read the writing on the wall & play an idol next episode (or at minimum seriously consider it) then it's her own fault.

And here's some thoughts on Ep 8:

• Rick thinks he's the shit and he's far from it. No one ever goes around stating blatant hatred for other people in the game & has a chance to win. Last person to do this I think was Abi Maria & we know what kind of player she was. I now want this guy to go down in flames & am extremely grateful I didn't get him on my team.  This last tribal council was a good start.
• Overall I loved the strategy in this episode. The game is afoot! It seems like alliance/voting blocks might be back on the table for the season, which would be an excellent turn of events.
• Obviously I'm highly biased based on my team roster, but I do love watching Wentworth & David converse like the veterans they are, giving an accurate assessment of their situation & coming up with successful strategies to improve their lot. What could be more masterful, really?

The Teams:

Baggins "Using My Rage Over Last Season to Draft Like a Pro" - 104 pts

• Joe (29 pts)
• Eric (23 pts)
• Lauren (4 pts)
• Ron (13 pts)
• Julie (21 pts)
• Aubry (14 pts)

Eric "Eric" - 87 pts

• Eric (23 pts)
• David (4 pts)
• Gavin (7 pts)
• Wentworth (9 pts)
• Julie (21 pts)
• Aurora (23 pts)

Doug & Bri "Well, That Sucked" - 87 pts

• Rick (9 pts)
• Chris (13 pts)
• Chris (13 pts)
• Ron (13 pts)
• Aurora (23 pts)
• Julia (16 pts)

Michal & Ben "The Hammer" - 71 pts

• Joe (16 pts)
• Lauren (4 pts)
• Wentworth (9 pts)
• Victoria (8 pts)
• Julia (16 pts)
• Wardog (5 pts)

MoonBee "Nerdy White Dudes" - 47 pts

• Rick (9 pts)
• David (4 pts)
• Gavin (7 pts)
• Victoria (8 pts)
• Wardog (5 pts)
• Aubry (14 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Eric - Eric may have lost his namesake (or whatever the opposite version of that is) but this is still a team of players - both strategists & physical threats. I'm a fan.

2. Michal & Ben - I didn't think Julia was going to be a big player, but hopefully this episode is the start of her crafty reign. Great resume builder & hopefully her core 3 stay true to each other moving forward. Wardog is a huge disappointment - I thought he'd be a minimum a physical threat rather than an anchor - but otherwise this crew is doing decently well.

3. Baggins - Baggins lost Joe and Eric in back-to-back episodes & now there's trouble abrewing for this once beastly team. Lauren, Ron, and Julie will not rake in the points while he's stronger players languish on the Edge. He needs a chance for a comeback from one of them soon, but I'm not expecting that will happen until there are maybe 5 people left.

4. MoonBee - I'm struggling to understand how MoonBee's team, with 5 players still in the mix, is scoring so low. But these are just not challenge contenders, and this otherwise solid team will likely pay the price for it. Maybe things will turn around though if the strongest physical players get voted out...

5. Doug & Bri - Rick & Ron are in a precarious position, Chris is in purgatory, and Aurora is a fool. Having Julia, a long shot at this point, is not enough.

DoW:

Joe for Ep 7, Rick for Ep 8. I'm throwing a lot of hate towards the top overall picks this go-round.