Survivor Ghost Island: Episode 9

We're post merge and post Chris so this show blew wide open for potential storylines beyond the super dull civil war that was happening between Dom & Chris. Dom must have read my mind... or I guess last week's blog, because he basically stated what I did, which was that he blew a lot of resources to get rid of his nemesis. His laying low strategy seemed to kind of work, even, in that all eyes were on Wendell rather than Dom this episode.

Wendell is playing the game well, including not playing his idol at the past 2 tribal councils where I was convinced both times that he would go home if he didn't play it. Thanks for giving me a few extra gray hairs on those ones, Wendell! But Laurel is a gamer too & her reasons for not trusting him seem pretty valid to me.

Laurel & Wendell look like they will be the titans of both the physical challenges & potentially also the strategy. They won the guac reward challenge basically single-handedly. They're both reading the other players well & at least Laurel seems to be weighing all her decisions carefully. Wendell could be in trouble if he just assumes his final 4 is locked in & solid... but he does seem to be working hard to maintain those relationships.

Then, in the second half of the episode, Angela comes out of nowhere and decides to hurtle Eric's team into 2nd place in the standings. Her "disrupter" role was played to perfection. Not one person suspected her of throwing Michael under the bus, and my respect for her grew & grew until we reached the immunity challenge. Then she started acting like a crazy person, and despite winning immunity, I think her prancing around may have a negative effect on her other tribemates ability to take her too seriously.

Michael saves himself with a clutch idol play, and in the end it's Libby who goes home. I'm not sure she still knows why. And quite frankly, I'm not sure I know why either. Was she really that strong of a player? Or did that female alliance just see an easy target?

The Teams:

Bagginses: 81 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Wendell (25 pts)
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Laurel (19 pts)
• Donathan (16 pts)

Eric: 75 points

• Michael (17 pts)
• Michael (17 pts)
• Angela (20 pts)
• Angela (20 pts)
• Desiree (1 pts)

SuperDreg: 60 points

• Chelsea (4 pts)
• [Chris (26 pts)]
• Chelsea (4 pts)
• [Chris (26 pts)]

Michal & Ben: 58 points

• Wendell (25 pts)
• Jenna (5 pts)
• Laurel (19 pts)
• Sebastian (8 pts)
• Desiree (1 pts)

MoonBee: 38 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• [Libby (26 pts)]
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• Jenna (5 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

Doug & Bri: 30 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Sebastian (8 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

Phil: 24 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• Dom (14 pts)
• Dom (14 pts)
• [Bradley (1 pts)]
• [Bradley (1 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Michal and Ben - I'm sticking with my girl Laurel to win this whole thing, so I'm keeping us in 1st place for now. Jenna & Seabass are looking like dead weight, but hopefully that means they rack up points going deep as coattail riders...
2. Bagginses - Baggins is down 1 player but could have 3 of the "final 4" if Wendell's plan actually happens. Is that a long shot to happen? Probably. But it's the only "final 4" that we know of now which I think lends it a little extra importance this season. 
3. Eric - Wow, Eric, nice run this episode! Really strong play from your team this episode. Now the question is if they can follow it up with another solid episode. Michael needs to get the target off his back ASAP for this team to have a legit chance. On the plus side, I think he's capable of pulling that off.
4. Doug and Bri - Doug & Bri are leading in the 2nd tier of teams, but things really aren't looking great for any of this group. I see the most potential with this team though.
5. Phil - Dom's solid reflection on his situation gives this team some hope. If he can pull out some idol plays, immunity challenge wins, etc. the double point value could put this team back in contention. But there is a LOT of ground to make up, so he needs to get on that fast.
6. MoonBee - With only Kellyn & Jenna on this team, MoonBee is pretty much toast this season. 
7. SuperDregs - Chelsea is sticking around which means each player voted out ahead of her will continue to be docked 1 point until she goes home. Which will inevitably happen in some kind of collateral damage scenario. 

Douche of the Week:

There were a few good options, but I'm going to give it to Wendell for not even trying at the immunity challenge.

Survivor Ghost Island: Episode 7

Many thanks to Moon for keeping this pool running while I was off gallivanting in the Pacific! I'm back now, and caught up on the greatest reality show in TV history, so here I go, banging on my keyboard to spew out highly biased but somewhat legitimate opinions about the show, the pool, and the castaways themselves.

Note: I've done some updating on points due to forgotten rules (e.g. the dreg rule where you lose points if your player gets voted out before a dreg) -- more of that may come soon.

Episode 7 was a fun one to watch as I did so with our house guest, one Adam Friedman. Adam, a wily, smart & opinionated professional poker player, is confident that he would do well on the show of Survivor. With that being said, he also can't understand how Evil Russell never won this show, so I pointed out that he might have to work on his social game.

The merge! The merge! And it's Dom-Chris Death Match 2. Dom prevails, but at what price? He used up a lot of his resources to nix his nemesis. Does he have what it takes to power through, maybe find another idol to make up for spending his legacy idol?

Chris finds an idol but loses his vote that week while extending his ability to use it one more week. Worth it? Not so much? Adam & I discussed this ad nauseum, including his decision not to play the idol in one of his only chances to do so. And gnight Chris.

The Teams:

Bagginses: 63 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Wendell (23 pts)
• Libby (14 pts)
• Laurel (17 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)

SuperDreg: 56 points

• Chelsea (2 pts)
• [Chris (26 pts)]
• Chelsea (2 pts)
• [Chris (26 pts)]

Michal & Ben: 55 points

• Wendell (23 pts)
• Jenna (6 pts)
• Laurel (17 pts)
• Sebastian (8 pts)
• Desiree (1 pts)

Eric: 39 points

• Michael (7 pts)
• Michael (7 pts)
• Angela (12 pts)
• Angela (12 pts)
• Desiree (1 pts)

Doug & Bri: 30 points

• [Stephanie (-5 pts)]
• Sebastian (8 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

MoonBee: 27 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• Libby (14 pts)
• Kellyn (7 pts)
• Jenna (6 pts)
• [James (6 pts)]

Phil: 24 points

• [Brendan (-6 pts)]
• Dom (14 pts)
• Dom (14 pts)
• [Bradley (1 pts)]
• [Bradley (1 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Michal and Ben - All 5 players made the merge which is a powerful position to be in. Would be interesting to see the win rate of teams that bring all their players into the merge - I expect it's pretty high. Wendell is doing a solid job - great non-play of the idol this last week. However, my top ranked player right now is Laurel. She's doing the quiet crush right now but I think she's holding back & is going to blow people away pretty soon. Good decision not to his the NOS button too early though.
2. Bagginses - Donathan > Sebastian + Desiree. But I don't think that will be enough for this team to overtake us with the overlay, unless Libby starts taking off. We'll see how she reacts to having her name written down last week.
3. Eric - Michael made the merge and he could be a powerful competitor, ally, and swing vote now. Angela I find a very intriguing player as well, though she's unlikely to rack up big points in a post-merge universe. This double stack mctwisty team could make a huge run; so even though they're 20 points back now, we can't count them out, especially with 2 players that could easily have a deep run.
4. Doug and Bri - Unlike Moon, I really don't like Kellyn. She's smart, I'll give her that, but she's too emotional to win this game. Also appears to be really bad at math based on the insanely exuberant celebration of getting an advantage in a challenge she was 67% likely to win. Sebastian as a 2nd round pick may have been the worst draft decision of the night, despite the criticism of a Wendell #1 overall pick.
5. MoonBee - Moon's fondness for Kellyn may be based on a desperate hope that she will salvage this team. Libby & Jenna can't win it for them - they're also owned by higher-scoring teams. So it's Kellyn or bust!
6. SuperDregs - Chris really shouldn't have been a double dreg in the first place. But that happened, and now SuperDregs could beat a legit real team.
7. Phil - Dom didn't go home last week which would have been hilarious. But despite looking like a potential power couple with Wendell, Dom misplayed his legacy idol, wore that dumb fake idol around his neck at Tribal, made a huge fuss about hating Chris, and basically is setting himself up to be voted out soon. 

Douche of the Week:

Chris. So long and thanks for all the reasons to give you this vote. 

Survivor Ghost Island: Episode 6

Last week we did individual player rankings. This week we'll do team power rankings.

Power Rankings:

1) Michal & Ben: 52 points

• Wendell (22 pts)
• Jenna (6 pts)
• Laurel (16 pts)
• Sebastian (7 pts)
• Desiree (1 pt)

No one in this group has faced much adversity yet. Wendell distinguished himself in the last episode singing Happy Birthday for his girlfriend and finding an idol. It's possible the merge could toss some of these castaways into stormier waters, but they're all comfortable currently.


2) A to Z: 62 points

• Stephanie (-4 pts)
• Wendell (22 pts)
• Libby (14 pts)
• Laurel (16 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)

This team is playing Libby and Donathan -10 pts against the Greenbergs' Jenna, Sebastian and Desiree. There is plenty of screen time of Libby walking on the beach in a bikini while others talk about how dangerous she is, but little of her talking to the camera one-on-one, so she may be packing her bags shortly.


3) Eric: 39 points

• Michael (7 pts)
• Michael (7 pts)
• Angela (12 pts)
• Angela (12 pts)
• Desiree (1 pt)

It's been a harrowing journey for Michael to the merge, but he made it. He's gotten the strongest edit of the remaining players, has no enemies, plays hard, has an idol no one knows about, and could win challenges down the stretch. However, he doesn't have people he can trust and will have to find some semblance of an alliance at some point.

4) SuperDreg: 38 points

• Chelsea (2 pts)
• Chris (17 pts)
• Chelsea (2 pts)
• Chris (17 pts)

Multiple teams may lose to the two-player SuperDreg. This shows the power of stacking, the power of an athletic player on an athletic tribe, and just how unpredictable Survivor is. It will be interesting to see which castaways recognize Chris as the dream ally and seek to take him deep. Or maybe he will lose his war with Dom and go home this week.

5) Doug & Bri: 25 points

• Stephanie (-4 pts)
• Sebastian (7 pts)
• Donathan (14 pts)
• Kellyn (1 pt)
• James (7 pts)

All things considered, Kellyn looks like the favorite heading into the merge. She has the acumen and determination necessary. She's shown she can make difficult decisions while displaying empathy and self-awareness - which should appeal to the jury if she gets there.

6) MoonBee: 23 points

• Brendan (-5 pts)
• Libby (14 pts)
• Kellyn (1 pt)
• Jenna (6 pts)
• James (7 pts)

Our remaining players are all capable of sitting at Final Tribal, but even if they do, they have a lot of points to make up on teams who have more players. Weak as this team is, we won't be adding to the trophy unless Dom outlasts our players.



7) Phil: 27 points

• Brendan (-5 pts)
• Dom (14 pts)
• Dom (14 pts)
• Bradley (2 pts)
• Bradley (2 pts)

Bradley pushed the barriers of acceptable dickheadedness as far as they could be pushed and ultimately they snapped. Personally I would have kept him around cause that's the kind of guy you want to go to Final Tribal with, or you can dispatch him later. But I don't have to be around the guy all day. Melissa and I wonder if he will undergo some personal growth from watching these episodes or dismiss it as a fake news edit. If Dom goes out in a do-or-die battle with Chris next week, this could finish as one of the worst teams in pool history.