Episode 10 - Going once... Going Twice... Gone

(Nice substitute, substitute blogging in my substitute blogging absence, Thomas. Thanks for helping out and good analysis the past 2 weeks.)

Episode 10 started with an event that we look forward to every Survivor season. Will they do it this season? Will they have bad items for purchase? Will someone make out like a bandit? Will someone hold out for something amazing, only to be shut down with nothing but a worthless pile of $20s? Will the editors gloss over the details to fast forward to some player drama? 

The answer to that last question is a great big "YES". Damn you, producers and editors! Here is what I took away from the auction and how I scored it. I determined all items purchased were "good" items. I did not give any negative auction points. 

• Will's purchase originally seemed like a negative item, but had a reward when he got back to camp, so I scored it as a "good" item. Let me know if anyone disagrees. 
• Then Shirin bought some chicken and waffles
• Jenn bought a bowl of colorful sugar water that assumedly had some booze in it
• Sierra bought and consumed some kind of kabobs in less than a few seconds
• Rodney got a steak to continue to fuel his DoS antics

Then came the family letters. I gave everyone points for these (except Will). Good Survivor knowledge by Shirin to get everyone to keep the bid low. Douchebag move by Mike, but more on that later.  

Finally, the advantage item. I only gave Dan the "good" item points since he was the only one that got the item. 

There must have been some more to the auction that we didn't see. Tyler wasn't shown buying anything but the loved one letter. Yet, he wasn't involved in the advantage item stone draw. Did he still have $480 left that he was hoping to use on something after the advantage item? Had he bought something else earlier in the auction? I guess we'll never know and I can only score what I knew for sure. So all players at least bought something and no negative points. 

Some scrambling went down at camp as surprisingly Mike was with Jenn and Shirin on the outs compared to the other 6. Mike wins immunity giving Minusamillion a point boost. The "6" did split their votes between Jenn and Shirin, but Shirin and Mike both voted Jenn as well, sending Jenn home. Mike and Shirin didn't want to leave the option on the table for the rest of the group to vote either her or Jenn out, which is probably a great play by Shirin to stay in the game that wasn't shown. All pool teams now have 2 players a piece left to earn them points. 
  

The Teams and Points:
(Parentheses indicate order players were picked) 

AndBag: "Maximillion" - 29 points

1. [Max (2) - 3 pts] - out 3rd 
2. Carolyn (7) - 13 pts 
3. [Lindsey (10) - -1 pts] - out 2nd 
4. Mike (15) - 14 pts 

Michal & Ben: "Jennicide" - 79 points

1. Shirin (4) - 17 pts 
2. [Jenn (5) - 41 pts] out 8th
3. [Joaquin (11) - 8 pts] out 4th 
4. Dan (14) - 13 pts 

Moon & Melissa: "Livin' On A Prayer" - 80 points

1. [Joe (1) - 42 pts] out 7th
2. [Kelly (8) - 9 pts] out 5th 
3. Will (12) - 13 pts 
4. Sierra (13) - 16 pts

Doug & Bri: "Jacked for a Reason, Bro" - 49 points

1. Tyler (3) - 21 pts 
2. [Hali (6) - 20 pts] out 6th 
3. Rodney (9) - 13 pts 
4. [Nina (16) - -5 pts] out 1st

Doug's Power Rankings:

Still anyone's game. 

1. Jennicide - A huge point lead and 2 scrappy players fighting to win give this team the edge. Dan's new advantage should help a little too. Although, it does seem like it is a slightly tough "advantage" to use correctly and the previews for next week show Dan in some hot water over having the advantage (and not hiding it somewhere other than his bag!). I predict at least Dan or Shirin in the final 3.  
2. 3. and 4. The next 3 teams are all very close. Every 5 minutes I change my mind on their chances. Maximillion has the most potential to earn points and have a winner amongst the ranks, but also has the largest deficit to make up. Livin' On A Prayer has a huge point lead, but I don't see a lot of points going Will or Sierra's way and I don't see either of them winning. Jacked For A Reason resides in the middle in both of the categories. 

I definitely want to hear other points of view on the rankings. 

Douche of the Week:

Two worthy candidates this week. Mike for the move at the auction and almost not putting his money down. Will for his blow up and unnecessarily personal attack on Shirin. I'm going with Will this week. Both acts were worthy, but Mike's decisions and actions stayed within the game. Will's went deeper and was unnecessary for the purposes of the game, thus he was a bigger douche in my opinion. It's kinda nice to have a new option besides Rodney and Dan.    

Episode 9: The Controversy of Maximillion

The pool's landscape is rapidly changing from week to week. Two weeks ago we were first in Doug's power rankings and now we're clearly in last place. Last week's first place A to Z team has slipped to third after an unfortunate negative-scoring week, DouBri is in the mix despite a recent loss and a negative player and the Greenbergs top the list despite one of the shakiest non-Sanders, non-Richey drafts in pool history.

Power Rankings:

1. Jennicide - 55 points
1. Shirin - 13
Say what you want about Shirin (and virtually all the other castaways do, and they're not nice things), but she plays hard. For the first time, it appears that Shirin may actually have a shot at winning it all - 60% because of her scrappy performance and 40% because she could get to a Final Tribal with other disliked players. Last week she was listed in the "Hopeless" category, so that's a huge step.
2. Jenn - 25
Jenn is either going to go down as a disappointing character or as a heroic one. If she can summon everything she's got and get through at least one more episode she'll be remembered for her tenacity and resiliency. If she quietly bows out without a fight she'll be the girl who wanted to leave, who all Survivor fans revile because it's such a rare privilege to be a castaway. It's hard to imagine her actually winning at this point, even though the first two jury members would give her their votes. Shirin is now Team Jennicide's #1 horse.
3. Joaquin - 8
4. Dan - 9
On a week with unclear options, I'll go with Dan as my Douche of the Week. Which reminds me - I have not edited the spreadsheet because mine is view only. I have just been updating on here.

2. Jacked For A Reason, Bro - 43 points
1. Tyler - 19
The question remains for the Big Man and Mama C - can they eventually flip a couple Blues against each other? Or will they link up now with Jenn, Will and Shirin and take out the Blues from here on out?
2. Hali - 20
3. Rodney - 9
Rodney's fantastic impressions were especially entertaining because they came from such an unlikely source. At the end of the day though, Rodney is still a douche that no one will vote for.
4. Nina - -5 

3. Maximillion - 19 points
1. Max - 3
2. Carolyn - 11
Carolyn didn't accrue any points this episode, leaving Maximillion with just 22 points because
3. Lindsey - -1
4. Mike - 6
Oh no. We have the makings of a controversy here. Our rules state "Plays a fake immunity idol" is worth -10 points. Mike played it in a no-lose situation, humorously, and voted for idol-creator Joe anyway. Maximillion were already facing a huge points deficit and an unforgiving -10 would cripple their team. It seems unfair, but we follow the rules in this pool. The other thing is that A to Z won't be commenting on this matter for quite a while, as they are way behind on the show (and thus the blog). I've given Mike the -10. To further taunt A to Z, I've put their team name in the blog title for the second straight week.

4. Livin' On A Prayer - 74 points
1. Joe - 42
Jeff Probst stated the obvious when he said "Joe, for the first time since the merge, vulnerable tonight at Tribal Council." Give the Blues credit for sticking to their alliance and ousting him without incident, and give Joe the Survivor Fantasy Monster credit for hitting a five-pointer at the buzzer by creating a fake idol. The Blues may not be a brilliant crew of players, but none of them made the mistake of making moves just to make moves. We'll see if they carry it out for two more episodes and take Jenn and Will out. If that happens, that will be four straight weeks of Blues + Whites > Nos.
2. Kelly - 9
3. Will - 11
4. Sierra - 12
It doesn't seem Will has a real friend in the game. He's just playing out the string. And watching this week's episode, I actually forgot what Sierra's name was for a moment. She's invisible, except for the time she was hanging around Mike while he was talking about a "a group within our group" with Shirin. We finally have some clarity in this pool: Livin' On A Prayer is just that.

Episode 8: The Resurrection of Maximillion

Ten castaways remain, and just five have a legitimate chance of winning. Let's take a look at the remaining castaways and their chances of winning.

The Contenders
1. Mike
Each season one player falls too far in the draft because we overreact to a minor early-episode storyline. This season that player was Mike due to his abrasive obsession with physical labor. Mike outworked everyone to an idol and appears set on keeping it to himself with his BFF Kelly unfortunately ousted by Jenn's immunity idol save. Mike isn't the most popular guy around but he's the best-liked Blue left in the game. If Blue Collar sticks together, Mike's the favorite.
2. Carolyn
Sanders emerged from a one-minute tank in the second round with Carolyn, who we were salivating to take with the next pick. Mama C is sharp, popular and crafty. She's bridged the gap between Blue and White, she has an idol tucked away for a rainy day and has the best alliance in the game going with
3. Tyler
The Big Man has meticulously gained the trust of his tribemates even though the cameras constantly seem to find him in an expression of treachery. He's a patient, savvy, multifaceted player who could work a jury into his favor at the end. He and Carolyn are the true power couple of the game, but they need to find a way to penetrate Blue or shack up with the remaining Nos.
4. Jenn
5. Joe
If the remaining players played optimally, they'd finish off the Nos and then battle it out from there. But we're entering the stage of the game where players will start picturing the endgame, realizing they're on the outside looking in, and bust out some blindsides. If anyone decides to make a move (I'm looking at you, Carolyn & Tyler), they'll need voting troops.

The Hopeless
1. Will
2. Sierra
3. Shirin
4. Rodney
5. Dan
None of these players have much chance at winning. Will and Sierra rank highest because they're not as obnoxious as the bottom three, but they don't have the personality for a championship. 


Power Rankings:

1. Maximillion - 28 points
1. Max - 3
2. Carolyn - 12
3. Lindsey - -1
4. Mike - 14
A to Z was left for dead after that brutal double episode where they lost Lindsey and Max...actually, I take it back, both of the other bloggers noted that they were still in the hunt despite the one-night massacre that cut their team in half. Fast-forward three weeks and they may be the favorites. It sounds ridiculous - they have just half the points of first place MoonBee - but they're the only team with two contenders. Both their players aren't likely to pack their bags anytime soon and will eventually have opportunities to accrue bonus points with correct idol plays.

2. Livin' On A Prayer - 56 points
1. Joe - 26
2. Kelly - 9
3. Will - 11
4. Sierra - 10
Kelly's unfortunate exit, right before the jury bonus, may prove costly. She was the most likable member of the Blues and was thus wisely targeted by the Nos. Joe is a ticking time bomb who's likely to go the instant he loses an immunity challenge, leaving this team with two supporting actors.

3. Jennicide - 51 points
1. Shirin - 11
2. Jenn - 25
3. Joaquin - 8
4. Dan - 7
It's tempting to think of this team as a contender, and maybe they are in this balanced season. They're only five points back of us and their alpha dog (Jenn) doesn't have as much heat on her as ours (Joe) does. But look at this team. Literally everyone hates Dan (my Douche of the Week) and Shirin while Jenn has been pushed to the fringe of the remaining tribe. She's not a threat to quit (as the NEXT TIME ON: tried to hype), but she doesn't have many friends left. Jenn has been a producer thus far but her best days may be behind her.

4. Jacked For A Reason, Bro - 35 points
1. Tyler - 11
2. Hali - 20
3. Rodney - 9
4. Nina - -5
Hali's exit reduced DouBri to just two low-scoring players. Rodney's jacked and Tyler played in the NFL, but neither has given Joe a fight in an immunity challenge yet. Obviously everything is riding on Tyler; the question is, can he produce enough points to overcome the deficit their team currently faces? I believe so. This pool is wide, wide open at this point. It's anyone's game.

Episode 7 - Drop your buffs. (Not like that, Snaders)

This week's episode started by highlighting a post tribal reaction of a bamboozled Tyler and Rodney. The thought that they might be on the losing side of an alliance battle did not seem to have crossed their minds. Finding out Joaquin was not returning with them to camp lit a little bit a of a fire under each of them to recalculate and figure out how to move forward. Rodney, in particular, came away from tribal with a chip on his shoulder. He basically vowed revenge to those that "disrespected" him, even though he had planned to do the same to the rest of his alliance, just down the road a little further.
Rodney was able to let his anger marinate with a few new faces and a full belly because instead of a reward challenge, the tribe met, merged, and mowed down a merge picnic. After everyone ate, they traveled back to a camp that had been cleared, allowing the tribe to figuratively and literally start from scratch.

As they rebuilt camp, the tribe shook each other down to figure out who might be aligning with who. Carolyn and Tyler vowed to stick together, but keep it on the down low. Kelly and Mike confirmed they were still tight. Rodney quickly latched onto Will in order to try to recruit some help for eventually voting out all the other blue collars. Blue collars stuck together for the most part and the other 3 no collars stayed aligned.  

The very segmented tribe had to come together to pick a new tribe name. Mike suggested " 'Murica " as he thought the group of the dozen or so people he was with perfectly represented the country that he calls home. It was a stretch, but we didn't see any other suggestions so it won seemingly by default. Shirin complained, but only in her private interview. Meanwhile, Dan peed on himself because he got stung by a jellyfish and the the blue collars set their targets on Joe because he is a competitive player.

The endurance immunity challenge proved who really was competitive. 6 tribe members (Dan, Will, Tyler, Shirin, Sierra, and Kelly) dropped almost immediately as they couldn't hold their own weight on a pole for more than 5 minutes. The remaining 6 (Jenn, Carolyn, Joe, Hali, Rodney, and Mike) put on a much more respectable show. Joe eventually won, throwing a wrench into blue collars voting plan. They settled on voting for Jenn instead, but Mike wanted to test Will and have him vote Hali just to make sure he will keep his word voting against his old tribe. Actually a pretty smart move.

The blue collars plan did rely on getting a few of the swing votes on their side. Tyler and Carolyn did choose to join with blue collars for this vote and then everything got foiled when Jenn sniffed out the plan and correctly played her idol. Jenn would have received 7 total votes, but instead Kelly went home by votes from the 3 allied no collars and Shirin. The last vote was Will's vote for Hali. The blue collars looked like they each got stuck in the back with a knife / ice pick / chainsaw / any other random weaponry they mentioned during Jeff's questioning.

This leaves the mostly blue collar alliance with 6 votes in an 11 person tribe, but Rodney's frustration with Mike, and Tyler and Carolyn's swing votes potentially up for grabs based on the situation, should leave this game wide open.

The Teams and Points:
(Parentheses indicate order players were picked) 

AndBag: "Maximillion" - 22 points

1. [Max (2) - 3 pts] - out 3rd 
2. Carolyn (7) - 11 pts 
3. [Lindsey (10) - -1 pts] - out 2nd 
4. Mike (15) - 9 pts 

Michal & Ben: "Jennicide" - 50 points

1. Shirin (4) - 10 pts 
2. Jenn (5) - 25 pts 
3. [Joaquin (11) - 8 pts] out 4th 
4. Dan (14) - 7 pts 

Moon & Melissa: "Livin' On A Prayer" - 45 points

1. Joe (1) - 16 pts 
2. [Kelly (8) - 9 pts] out 5th 
3. Will (12) - 10 pts 
4. Sierra (13) - 10 pts

Doug & Bri: "Jacked for a Reason, Bro" - 24 points

1. Tyler (3) - 10 pts 
2. Hali (6) - 10 pts 
3. Rodney (9) - 9 pts 
4. [Nina (16) - -5 pts] out 1st

Doug's Power Rankings:

The 1st and 2nd place teams (by points) added to their totals, while the 3rd and 4th place teams went nowhere. I'm not changing the rankings from last week based on the justifications below. BUT I think it is virtual power ranking tie between 2nd and 3rd. And the whole pool is in a much tighter race overall. 

1. Livin' On A Prayer - They lost their first player, but I didn't see Kelly bringing in a whole lot of points down the road. Probably going to stay at the top of the power ranking board as long as Joe is in the game.
2. Jacked for a Reason - A lot of ground needs to be made up, so most of our eggs are resting in Tyler's basket. He needs some immunity/reward wins and maybe to find an idol. Maybe we're putting too much faith in him? 
3. Jennicide - Gained some points, but they are now much more vulnerable to losing Jenn. Dan and Shirin won't be bringing in a lot of points unless they are brought to the finale because a powerful player wants them to be. Definitely benefiting from the early episode points. 
4. Maximillion - Can Mike survive the aftermath of his plan from this episode ending up in the drink? Carolyn did prove she might win some more points for this team with her impressive 2nd place immunity challenge finish. A long way to go, but not out by any means. 

Douche of the Week:

I'm throwing my DoW vote to Mike this week for suggesting such a dumb tribe name.

Other Business:

I'm traveling for work the next 2 Wednesdays, so if anyone wants to volunteer for some bloggage duties, speak up.