The epic struggle between Christian and Mike reached its resolution, with the latter winning their war of attrition. The guillotining of Christian illuminated the savvy of the remaining castaways, as they coldly offed their greatest threat the moment the opportunity was presented. This classic season has played out like a George R.R. Martin novel. The most powerful characters have patiently pulled strings from the shadows to topple the world's most featured and charismatic leaders. As in Game of Thrones, the edit has devastatingly misled the audience, endearing us with heroes before stunningly pulling their trapdoors to doom.
We're left with six castaways, perhaps less charming than those they've demolished, but worthy of the final battle. Let's reverse power-rank them in order of their chances of winning.
6. Angelina fancied herself a power player before being humbled into a shapeless burden like the sacks of rice of which she's fashioned her identity. Angelina is a decaf Natalie - disliked and disrespected by all, crippled by undeveloped corporate social skill, abrasiveness and a lack of self-awareness. The difference between Angelina and Natalie is the former lies within three standard deviations of bothersome, so her competitors are willing to tolerate her presence. At this point her competitors all recognize Angelina has no chance of winning at Final Tribal, so each is actually looking to get her there.
5. Kara has a well-rounded resumé including challenge victories, notable moves and backstabs. She's built it without really pissing anyone off except her ex-boyfriend. Yet it's difficult to envision a scenario in which she actually garners the most votes from this jury. It's hard to identify a jury member who would give her the most credit.
4. Nick has been an interesting bob-and-weave player throughout the season, forming corny-nicknamed alliances he appeared to be on the submissive end of but wasn't. At times it appeared his mind was coming unhinged. At times his partnerships seemed to be flagging. He botched his idol in the last episode. He's never dominated, but he does have enough feathers in his cap to convince the Jury of his worth. And convincing juries is what Nick does for a living.
3. Davie has played a world-class game. He's crafted trustworthy relationships without compromising his purpose. He's performed at challenges without attracting a bullseye. He's turned difficult situations on their heads. He's played the short game concurrently with the long. He's a player who could function in any group with any season. Davie is a truly awesome player. His problem is he was on the wrong side of the Christian vote and he's been identified by Lord Varys as next to go.
2. Alison likely hasn't done enough to distinguish herself to the Jury, but there is still time. Could Alison get to Final Tribal as part of a late Female Goliath Alliance and then upend Kara? Absolutely. Could she go on a convincing run of immunities and blindsides down the stretch? Certainly. Does she have the stones to sever the correct throats at the right moment? Without question.
1. Mike is a masterful strategic/social player in the vein of Richard Hatch and Cirie Fields. It takes great finesse to call the shots while letting others think they're calling the shots but still get credit for calling the shots at the end. Mike has been the puppet master throughout. He's disarmed his opponents instead of skirmishing with them. Mike will consider who he should take to Final Tribal more carefully and skillfully than anyone else. But when you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die. Mike's time in the shadows is coming to a close, and he will have difficulty functioning out in the light.
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A to Z have a humongous lead and I'm not smart enough to figure out if it's prohibitive. I am pretty sure it will be their team or ours, and we'll need Mike to win it. Possibly in a sweep.
