Survivor DG: Episodes 7 & 8

It's a post-merge world in Survivor "and now the real game begins" (said at least 1 castaway on every season of Survivor ever). These were a pretty interesting couple episodes, with a few of my highlights recounted here:

• Elizabeth v. Angelina = what a n00b-fest. Elizabeth told Gabby that she'd save herself by blowing Angelina's secret at Tribal Council and Gabby totally backed that up. If Gabby knows anything about Survivor (and I'm not sure she does), sound advice here would have been to make these kinds of moves on the beach. Vote changes once you're at Tribal Council almost never happen. I'd assumed that Gabby encouraged this because it made her life easier - she supported a friend while also advancing her own plans with her Stealth Force 6 Alliance. But I think I was giving Gabby too much credit.
  
• Alec. Dude's just crushing it. Everyone both trusts & distrusts him at the same time (how is that possible?), he has the most alliances, the most options for game play, a lot of flexibility, etc. Also he's a challenge beast. His current point earnings don't fully reflect how valuable this pony is. That plus his fabulous Probst lip-syncing last episode makes me seriously regret not drafting him. He should be a shoo-in if they ever do an All Stars season again - are you listening Survivor producers??
  
• Gabby is a disaster. But Dan is the wooooorst.
  
• Mayhem! It's a lawless world out there now that the resident Mayor was deposed in a shocking bout of collateral damage. Did not see that coming.
  
• The Davids love each other. Seriously, I'm not sure they're playing optimal game strategy. I think they really bonded during the first week of the show (with the exception of Elizabeth) & are just plain looking out for each other. I'm not saying that Davie's save of Christian was the wrong move -- actually I think it was brilliant.
  
• Trending up. Kara looked like a beast in the reward challenge, and if she finally realizes that Dan is dragging her down I'd be pretty thrilled about her.
  
• Trending down. Not sure Mike fully thought through the implications of turning on Christian & what the consequences would be if he lost. I'm still not sure what those consequences will be myself, but it should be a fun next episode when we watch the fall out!

DOW:

Dan Douchechacho. I just can't stand you, bro. So glad you lost points for that idol mis-play.

Survivor DG: Episode 6

So there I was, feeling like a ge-ge-genius in my analysis of last episode & then it turns out it was all for a coat. Sigh. And back to the ranks of pedestrian Survivor blogger I go...

No time for a full-blown blog this week, especially considering I'm already 5 days late, so please check the spreadsheet for updated scores. You'll be shocked - shocked! - to see that the gap between Bag and MoonBee v. the rest of us has only grown wider. Also got the unnecessary confirmation from producers that Eric doesn't know what he's doing.

Player Rankings, not including those living on Ponderosa (fabulous exit interview though, Lyrsa):


13. Elizabeth - No one likes her and she doesn't do well with conflict. Not seeing a big future here.

12. Carl - This guy is doing nothing & won't likely earn many points from here on out. I like his hat though.

11. Gabby - I think everyone likes Gabby more than me. I enjoy her as a person but I think she's a sub-par Survivor player. The teenager in me is tickled by the Nerd Love storyline though.

10. Dan - Brochacho's going to be a huge target post-merge. He's got his hidden 2nd idol in his pocket, but I think his lips are going to loosen up once he's back with Kara. I'm predicting a botched idol play in Dan's future, though likely not as epic as James the Gravedigger's.

9. Kara - not sure what kind of alliances she has left with that all-female trio crashing & burning. Actually that's pretty much the story of all the women on this season...

8. Angelina - keeping up with the theme of our team, Angelina came in aggressive & arrogant this season. Not advisable, as the casualty toll is proving for this style of play. I think the merge is coming at a great time for her game, though.

7. Alison - I liked her more before she got airtime this week. Her "I'm such an amazingly awesome, better-than-anyone-else doctor because I really feel for the little guy" spiel really fell flat for me. (If you couldn't tell.) Still, at least she's considering all of her alliance options and is clearly thinking strategy without making that abundantly clear to everyone else.

6. Alec - playing a cannier game than I would have ever given him credit for at the draft. However, he's a huge challenge threat & I'm not sure how much people will trust him. Watch out for an early post-merge exit, but if he can survive the next couple episodes he could do very well.

5. Davie - still has potential, though we haven't seen much from him lately. I'm excited to see him in a post-merge world.

4. John - I guess it's time: Ab-raham Lincoln is playing a pretty flawless game. At least provided he can distance himself from the bro-fest that Dan is cultivating. That's going to be dangerous. 

3. Nick - Nick is the dark horse to win this whole thing. Lots of quiet alliances going on, willing to defer to allies when it's not going to cost him too much. Not drawing too much attention as a player, but is definitely scheming.

2. Christian - rumors of his demise (from the "next time on Survivor") are likely to be greatly exaggerated. Guys' got a good set of alliances, is going to have a great character arc story to share if he gets to final tribal, might even leave with a girlfriend.

1. Mike - see all previous posts for more details.


DOW:
Angelina.

Survivor DG: Episode 5

I'm stating the obvious here and basically repeating what Moon already said... but with all 6 players left in the game & an 18+ point advantage against the rest of the field that has a measly 4 castaways, this is more of a cage match than a melee.

Sorry guys, the cage is full.

So rather than beat a dead horse or discuss my opinions about one small town mayor, let's discuss Natalie. Yay!

On the list of "people we'd be most devastated to find living in our Survivor camp" Natalie is absolutely a Top 5. She might even been the Queen Bee. Other top contenders for me include J'Tia (rice burner) and Brandon Hantz (unhinged). (Some might also list Philip Jessum Herring here, but they are obviously mistaken.) There's always a decent contingent of lazy or bossy castaways, but they are rarely in combination or quite as extreme as Natalie is... err, was.

The fact that Natalie lasted all the way to day 15 (I think) is a true testament to what makes Survivor great. You may wake up ever day dreading the inevitable interactions you will have with 20% of the people living in your camp under the most intense living conditions ever. But you will keep that person around because you'd rather hate your life in the short term to give yourself even a slightly better chance to get a million dollars in the long term.

With that being said, reaching that logical point isn't something everyone is capable of, including Lyrsa and Natalia to name a couple. And even if you're already thinking that far ahead - Angelina - it's a flaw in your logic not to take into account how these other contestants will view your opinion on the matter:

1. "The masses" can't stand living with Natalie
2. You see the advantage of doing so and use your influence to keep Natalie around
3. Now the masses can't stand Natalie, are mad at you for making them continue to live with her, and realize that you care more about strategy than them as people
4. You are a threat and one of the sources of their misery. The masses vote you out. 

This is where you see the difference in caliber of player. Lyrsa & Natalia made it to Step #1. Angelina made it to Step #2. Good, but not good enough. I think that Mike made saw ahead to Step #4 and decided to take a different path. He made the right move & Angelina took a big mis-step. Here's how he crushed it:

• Mike pacified the masses, building goodwill with the Davids but still keeping the door open with Goliaths since he only voted out someone that they all hated anyway
• As soon as Natalia was voted out, all Goliaths should have re-thought their game plan. Even if they go in even numbers or up 1 to the merge, it's clear that allegiances have changed. Kara & Alec made that abundantly clear through facial expressions at the reward challenge. So you need to assume that when Natalia when home you also lost Alec. That means that you weren't sitting at 8 Goliaths v. 7 Davids last episode, you were sitting at 7 Goliaths v. 7 Davids + 1 Alec. If that's where you stand, doesn't it also make sense for you to flip on the Goliaths and join the majority?
• You've now opened the door to playing both sides, aka putting yourself exactly where you want to be. Once you hit the merge, Goliaths would need to focus on taking out Davids rather than you if you've re-aligned yourself with them... or vice versa. Buying you time to build trust, make friendships, and open the door to more options for game play.
• At this point in Survivor, I think it's actually more risky to stick with your original alliance after that first tribal swap than to switch sides. When there are 3 tribes competing is the best time to make these moves as you're at the time that you're least likely to have to go to tribal council at all. When you have that opportunity, make a big move & it's unlikely you'll be back anytime soon to suffer the repercussions. 

To me, this episode showed that Mike is best player in the game.

Other points of disagreement/adjustment in Moon's power rankings (which overall were excellent): Gabby is seriously overrated. If she can't overcome her intimidation after having lived 5+ days with these Goliaths, she's pretty much screwed. Elizabeth & Alec should be bumped up the list - though I wouldn't have said that before watching last night's episode. I don't think Alec is as smart or savvy as Mike but I do think he had more thought process to his decision last week than he was given credit for. And I loved that Elizabeth was wary of Kara after the vote. They'd bonded early so I thought she'd fall for that "I trust you more than Alec" spiel, but she was having none of it. Good on ye, Sheila.

The Teams:

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 79 points

• Christian (12 pts)
• Dan (22 pts)
• Davie (15 pts)
• Alec (10 pts)
• Kara (10 pts)
• Elizabeth (10 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Taking Pickle to Slamtown" - 60 points

• John (12 pts)
• Gabby (12 pts)
• John (12 pts)
• Mike (8 pts)
• Mike (8 pts)
• Nick (8 pts)

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 46 points

• Christian (12 pts)
• Dan (22 pts)
• Alison (12 pts)
• [Bi (-5 pts)]
• [Bi (-5 pts)]
• Elizabeth (10 pts)

Michal & Ben "Get Out" - 42 points

• [Natalia (0 pts)]
• Davie (15 pts)
• Angelina (7 pts)
• Carl (10 pts)
• [Jeremy (0 pts)]
• Carl (10 pts)

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 32 points

• [Natalia (0 pts)]
• Gabby (12 pts)
• [Jessica (-6 pts)]
• Kara (10 pts)
• Lyrsa (8 pts)
• Lyrsa (8 pts)

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing" - 31 points

• Angelina (7 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• [Jessica (-5 pts)]
• Nick (5 pts)
• [Jeremy (0 pts)]

Natalie "It's MY coat" - 10 points

• [Natalie (5 pts)]
• [Natalie (5 pts)]

Power Rankings:

1. Bagdrea: Seriously this is the dream team. Maybe switch out Kara for Mike & I see zero flaws. Dan is dumb but an idol magnet. Christian has the character arc story. Alec brings in challenge points. Davie has a chance to go deep. Even Elizabeth is proving her worth. 
2. MoonBee: See above. I'm with Doug on the Mayor's potential protein deficiency, and being a huge target post-merge. But he's absolutely playing a better social game than I ever could have expected. With that being said, I apologize for nothing.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
3. Phil: This team has a good head on its collective shoulders. Nick is still a twerp with his dumb alliance names but I very much appreciate his response to Natalie's coat bullying. 
4. Michal & Ben: Who knows, maybe Carl is in it to win it!
5.  Doug & Bri: With Bagdrea's team being so dominant and there being so much overlap in their teams, Doug & Bri essentially have no way to win. Unless it turns out that Alison can turn on her Rage function a la Dungeons & Dragons, and go on a huge point-earning tear.
6. Eric: Eeeee.

DoW:

Natalie, for the last time!

Survivor DG: Episode 4

Michal's greatest mistake wasn't drafting Natalia with her first pick. It was letting me write the blog this week.

I took great satisfaction in Natalia's exit. Imagine drafting that self-sabotaging hellion ahead of a deep, multifaceted, charismatic player like John.

Okay. The intention of this post isn't actually to trash our blog mother. Her remaining team appears pretty strong, she and her husband have crushed the pool recently and they own all of the pool's long-time records. Plus, she's a pretty cool lady. Most importantly, I'm getting maximal satisfaction out of watching Michal begrudgingly raise our team's power ranking week-by-week. I wish she could do the blog this week, because she's a terrific writer and because she'd have to painfully realize our team has 1.5x the members and 2x the points of hers. Perturbed as she might be, Michal would have a hard time ranking us lower than second this week. I'll just have to imagine her shaking her head disgustedly, gritting her teeth and placing us second behind A to Z.

This post is going to be a power rankings, but of the individual kind. Team power rankings wouldn't be insightful right now as two horses have moved way out in front, at least in terms of remaining players and points scored. Check the spreadsheet if you want to jealously gaze up at our huge leads. This is a power rankings of all the players, including the departed.


BUSTO: Jessica
Sometimes youngsters have the maturity of last year's Michael and sometimes they haven't graduated beyond narcissism and abrasiveness. Jessica was the latter. A lousy mid-round pick.

BUSTO: Jeremy
I really loved the Jeremy Experience but the man just couldn't control himself. He was the maniac in the poker tournament who won ten of the first fifteen hands and busted before the first break.

BUSTO: Bi
Let's not write a revisionist history about what a strong player Bi was before her unlucky injury. Bi was never going anywhere in this game. She was a bit of a hothead and didn't appear to be forging solid alliances. But of course it was unlucky for Bri & Doug to have her depart this early. The rules give -5 points for med-evackers and 0 to -10 points for quitters, determined by pool vote. I'm not exactly sure how this works, but if I'm voting, I would give Bi -3 points. If it's a binary 0 or -10, I would give her 0.

BUSTO: Natalia
Natalia had the appearance of a strong player, but those who investigated beyond the surface found a concerning underbelly of arrogance and pushiness. Her early exit was entirely self-inflicted. All she had to do was throw Alec the slightest bone and he would have been happy to make the easy vote with her and Kara. At least she had the self-awareness to admit she blew it in her bustout interview.

15. Natalie
Could a mature, self-assured player grab Natalie and use her as a coattail-riding vote deep into the game? I doubt it. She's just too abrasive. Nobody likes her.

14. Lyrsa
She's certainly capable of making a run if everything breaks right, but Lyrsa doesn't appear capable of winning challenges, rousing votes or garnering respect at Final Tribal.

13. Elizabeth
I'm not giving Elizabeth credit for turning the tables and upsetting Natalia. I'm giving Natalia credit for that, helped by an overeager...

12. Alec
Smug in his backstab of Natalia, Alec may have signed his own death warrant while trying to build his resumé. Now all the Goliaths know he can't be trusted. With Carl joining the Orange Tribe, Alec is no sure bet to even survive the next vote. Sometimes the dumb surfer guy is actually a disarmingly shrewd charmer like Jay and sometimes the dumb surfer guy is just a dumb surfer guy.

11. Nick
The Kentucky lawyer has a thing for alliances with stronger males and a thing for corny nicknames for those alliances. The Rockstar Alliance isn't particularly clever or particularly staunch, but it's good enough to give us a team name to replace #vytas. We're the Slamtown Rockstars. At least until we think of something better.

10. Alison
We haven't seen or heard much from Alison. She seems unlikely to ruffle many feathers or make a serious push at the million bucks.

9. Dan
Dumb Dan bemoaned being separated from his girlfriend, but it was the best thing that could have happened to him. Dan landed on the powerhouse Green tribe where he should continue to accumulate points and build relationships. In the unlikely event of a Green loss, Dan could be their first to go.

8. Kara
She's sharp enough to appreciate the separation from Dan, but the switch didn't go well for Kara. She was the only one who stuck with Natalia and would appear to be Orange's next target. I think Kara is calm and savvy enough to mend things with Alec - or help arrange his demise.

7. Mike
He's proven he can hang with the kids and he's proven his strategic acumen. My issue with Mike is the same issue he identified - he's on the Purple tribe which figures to be making frequent Tribal Council appearances.

6. Carl
Cool new twist with the "Idol Nullifier." It's the rare advantage that's optimized by sharing with others. It will be interesting to see how it's employed by Carl and his pals. His stay on Exile Island shouldn't hurt him, as he's re-entering the game onto a tribe without set alliances. Plus it would be a surprise for Orange to return to Tribal before Purple.

5. Angelina
She did land on Purple, but it would be an upset to see Angelina removed from her tribe before Natalie or other Purples. I'm concerned she might be a little too headstrong, a little too unnecessarily influential, but it wouldn't be surprised to see Angelina head a post-merge female alliance down the stretch.

4. John
The Mayor of Slamtown is doing everything a contender should be doing at this stage. He doesn't complain, he doesn't ruffle feathers, he gets screentime, he's shown charisma and self-awareness, he's linked up with the right people, he's on the powerhouse tribe and he hasn't yet displayed a protein problem.

3. Gabby
Gabby is a little tough to evaluate at this point, as she's had some emotional struggles and considers herself first on the chopping block of her tribe. But that is the powerhouse tribe, she has the strongest alliance in the game with its strongest player and she knows how to talk to people. The edit suggests a deep run.

2. Davie
It seems elementary, but most castaways can't keep their idols to themselves. Davie has managed to do it so far - and managed to negotiate disadvantageous tribe swap & council without using that idol. He deftly manipulated Goliath-weighted Orange to a Natalia vote without any fanfare - a sign of great social skill.

1. Christian
Christian has been the most powerful castaway since day one. He's also gotten the most airtime. Seemingly everyone wants to ally with him. His alliances are so intimate betrayal seems unlikely. He's already building a resumé for Final Tribal and figures to garner plenty of points along the way with his puzzle prowess. Christian went 1/2 in the draft and I assume that's where he'd go if we re-drafted tomorrow.

Survivor DG: Episode 3

Oof, a lot to unpack after this episode, but with a tribal mix-up coming up soon I'm not even sure it's worth it. So in honor of Eric I will share my thoughts via a list:

1. Bi's knee injury got more air time than I would have expected. I suspect this will get worse over the coming days & she'll be med-evacked from the show.
2. John definitely came across as a savvy player this week. I'm still not sold on him though. I need him to crush this tribal swap before I can give #Vytas too much respect
3. Hermit crab racing is the single-handed greatest way to entertain yourself in Survivor history.
4. Wtf Jeremy?? That dude's paranoia got the best of him. He seems like a really smart guy & then - boom! - calling a tribe meeting, attacking Natalie at tribal, and over-strategizing after telling everyone else not to do it. He brought about his own demise.
5. Speaking of, here are the Top 5 things you should never do on Survivor:
1. Sabotage your own team during a challenge
2. Feel like you are safe
3. Call a tribe meeting
4. Sabotage your own camp, e.g. burning all your food, hiding a machete, etc. 
5. Get cocky because you have an idol
6. And here's my Top 5 list of things you should definitely do to prepare for going on Survivor:
1. Know how to make fire
2. Know how to swim
3. Gain 15 pounds
4. Practice puzzles
5. Some kind of endurance practice, especially related to your arms (e.g. holding them above your head or out in front of you for hours at a time)
7. Kudos to Mike for trying to defend Jeremy but also knowing when to let go. #MVP of the episode right here
8. Overall I feel like the teams are pretty even, though I'm still going to give power rankings... because, well, it's fun to judge things. Some of the players who I think are top competitors are getting dragged down by stables with some lame ponies in them. I don't see anyone running away with this game quite yet. 

The Teams:

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 35 points

• Christian (5 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Davie (10 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Kara (5 pts)
• Elizabeth (5 pts)

Moon & Melissa "#Vytas" - 30 points

• John (5 pts)
• Gabby (5 pts)
• John (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Nick (5 pts)

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 30 points

• Christian (5 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• Bi (5 pts)
• Bi (5 pts)
• Elizabeth (5 pts)

Michal & Ben "Get Out" - 29 points

• Natalia (4 pts)
• Davie (10 pts)
• Angelina (4 pts)
• Carl (5 pts)
• [Jeremy (1 pt)]
• Carl (5 pts)

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 19 points

• Natalia (4 pts)
• Gabby (5 pts)
• [Jessica (-5 pts)]
• Kara (5 pts)
• Lyrsa (5 pts)
• Lyrsa (5 pts)

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing" - 15 points

• Angelina (4 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• [Jessica (-5 pts)]
• Nick (5 pts)
• [Jeremy (1 pt)]

Natalie "The Greatest Dreg This Game Has Ever Seen... Now Get Back to Work!" - 8 points

• Natalie (4 pts)
• Natalie (4 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Bagdrea: Dan was surprisingly eloquent at tribal council. His love of "attractive & blonde" Kara may still be a massive problem, but I think there's more potential with him than his predecessor Cole ever had. Too bad that Jeremy's swan song included blowing his cover on the idol though. Otherwise this team is rock solid with the Alec + Davie + Christian combo. Alec is going to rake in points at challenges (until the merge when they'll likely boot him). There's some decent strategists on this tribe & no one's name is being mentioned as a target at this point, so things are looking pretty smooth over here.
2. Eric: Eric has Natalia, Gabby, and Kara who I think could all be major players in this game. Again, could they win enough challenges & find enough idols to net points along the way to outlasting everyone? I'm not sure. But call me a fan of this team despite the "Wrong Blonde" hiccup. 
3. Michal & Ben: Angelina was certainly a top performer this week, but hopefully she didn't stick her neck out too far too early in the game. The women's alliance + MANipulation seems to be going pretty well for NatAngKara. I hope they can keep things going during the swap. Carl's a pretty big problem though. Someone crying at the start of the episode because they miss home only nine days in does not bode well.
4. Moon & Melissa: Mike's MVP status helps MoonBee continue their crawl up the rankings. Bad luck that everyone's throwing hate towards Gabby, though I have a feeling she'll make it through. The Nerd Love Story that the producers are hyping this season is actually kind of amazing. I will never forget the "do you want to play with me?" "What? Oh, like in the sand?" interaction. That might be one of the best ever.
5.  Doug & Bri: I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think Bi is lasting much longer and it's -5 or -10 x2 if she gets med-evacked or quits. If Dan continues to overperform then they could potentially overcome that, but he's also a bit of a loose cannon when it comes to boom or bust potential.
6. Phil: Alas, Phil's time at the top was short-lived. I hope you enjoyed your brief moment in the limelight! 2 players down this early is pretty much a death knell in this game. Despite having 4 strong players left, I think it's going to be all but impossible to make a comeback now.

DoW:

Jeremy

Survivor DG: Episode 2

Game on! I'm a little short on time today so here's my notes on the players' performance last night:

Impressed by:

• Davie - well done sir, thanks for nabbing that immunity idol while embracing your "provider" role
• Gabby - for being assertive in your game play, which I was worried about
• Alec - more than just a bro, perhaps?
• Jeremy - he was getting into it this episode, trying to build relationships, etc. Keep it up!

Not impressed by:

• Bi - she met my expectations in game play, though I'd hoped she'd be a little stronger in challenges
• Dan - might be even dumber than I'd thought
• Christian - I know it seems like he's in the driver's seat but I'm just not sure he's got the proper motivation right now. I think he's delighted by the prospects of game play, but I'm not seeing the determination to win a million dollars that is often necessary to back-stab your besties to get there. 

The Teams:

Moon & Melissa "#Vytas" - 20 points

• John (5 pts)
• Gabby (0 pts)
• John (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Mike (5 pts)
• Nick (0 pts)

Michal & Ben "Get Out" - 20 points

• Natalia (5 pts)
• Davie (5 pts)
• Angelina (5 pts)
• Carl (0 pts)
• Jeremy (5 pts)
• Carl (0 pts)

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good" - 20 points

• Christian (0 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Davie (5 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Kara (5 pts)
• Elizabeth (0 pts)

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing" - 15 points

• Angelina (5 pts)
• Alec (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• Jessica (-5 pts)
• Nick (0 pts)
• Jeremy (5 pts)

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft" - 10 points

• Christian (0 pts)
• Dan (5 pts)
• Alison (5 pts)
• Bi (0 pts)
• Bi (0 pts)
• Elizabeth (0 pts)

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing" - 5 points

• Natalia (5 pts)
• Gabby (0 pts)
• Jessica (-5 pts)
• Kara (5 pts)
• Lyrsa (0 pts)
• Lyrsa (0 pts)

Natalie "The Greatest Dreg This Game Has Ever Seen... Now Get Back to Work!" - 8 points

• Natalie (4 pts)
• Natalie (4 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Phil: I'm going to rocket Phil's team up to first place after an impressive episode from Jeremy, what's looking like a decent alliance between Christian and Nick, and Alec seeming more substantial than I initially gave him credit for.
2. Bagdrea: Dan may end up being this team's downfall with the showmance double-down going on here. Collateral damage is very real in these circumstances, which is such a shame. But I still think this is a well-rounded team with a lot of potential.
3. Michal: Davie was great but he & Carl found themselves on the wrong end of the vote last episode & that could spell real trouble when you have 2 Carls.
    
4.  Doug & Bri: Really needed Bi to be more impressive than she was. This is a team that could really benefit from an early tribal mix-up.
   
5. Moon & Melissa: I still think John is a terrible pick, but Gabby & Mike over-performed so you're out of the doghouse!
   
   
6. Eric: Eric avoided near disaster with an early Lyrsa departure. But she could easily be the target next week too if the David Tribe continues to lose challenges & they don't switch up tribes anytime soon. Her argument that she won the first reward challenge is extremely flawed & her tribe is too smart to buy that for long.

DoW:

Natalie obv

Survivor DG: The Draft

Welcome to Survivor, season 37, David v. Goliath. I know we're only 1 episode in, but is anyone else already completely over the castaways on the David tribe being referred to as "Davids"? It's a little confusing, maybe a little sexist... I'm not 100% sure why it bothers be so much, but clearly it's enough of an issue that I'm leading off the blog with this opinion.

The pool this season will follow the same format as the last couple seasons w/ double drafts & 6 teams. We added a tribal fire-building rule to address the horrible truth that there will be a fire-building challenge when there are 4 players left each season. To which Eric responded "I'll be honest, this rule change isn't going to change my draft picks one iota  because I have no idea what I'm doing" and completely made my night.

This season looks to have a different director or editor as they are comfortable showing events in a non-chronological order. I love this! It's a much better change than when Top Chef decided to mix things but by showing people cooking in slo-mo. What was the point of that??

And while I think the "David v. Goliath" theme is one of the dumbest they've had, this seems to be a season of cannier castaways than we've had in the last few seasons. So call me cautiously optimistic about this season & hopefully some exciting game play!

The Teams:

Doug & Bri "Maybe I can't drive, but at least I can draft"

• Christian
• Dan
• Alison
• Bi
• Bi
• Elizabeth

Phil "Missed the draft, but I bet he cooked something amazing"

• Angelina
• Alec
• Alison
• Jessica
• Nick
• Jeremy

Eric "I have no idea what I'm doing"

• Natalia
• Gabby
• Jessica
• Kara
• Lyrsa
• Lyrsa

Moon & Melissa "#Vytas"

• John
• Gabby
• John
• Mike
• Mike
• Nick

Michal & Ben "Get Out"

• Natalia
• Davie
• Angelina
• Carl
• Jeremy
• Carl

Bag & Andrea "My team is actually good"

• Christian
• Dan
• Davie
• Alec
• Kara
• Elizabeth

Natalie "The Greatest Dreg This Game Has Ever Seen... Now Get Back to Work!"

• Natalie
• Natalie

Player Rankings:

I'm not confident enough to give a power ranking, but I will share early thoughts on this season's castaways:

• Alec: Eric said "Davie is like what's her name from two seasons ago.  He's not really even on the show." Which is both brilliantly said & also reflects my thoughts on Alec but not Davie this season. #Justanotherwhitebro #Bagdefinitelydraftedhim
• Alison: Reminds me of Chrissy from season 35 (which Ben won, but she came in 2nd or 3rd). Could be a challenge beast, also has potential to be crafty with the strategic play though we didn't see a lot of alliance-building from the Goliaths in this episode.
• Angelina: Reminds me so much of this actress from The Newsroom that I'm still unsure if I think she's a good pic or I was just thrown off by the familiarity of her face. Still, I loved that she knew the gender breakdown stats of who finds immunity idols. That's the sign of a harder-core fan than I am, and I gotta respect that.
• Bi: I like Bi a lot, but her experience with the show of Survivor is super lacking (based on reading her bio on CBS, which I pretty much never do, and may live to regret it this season). I think she'll be good at the social & challenge game, but I don't think she'll be a good strategist and will be outmaneuvered this season.
• Carl: Made his first alliance with a 19-year-old who reminded him of his daughter. I know he didn't do great at the challenge, but he was reaching out to the "underdogs" of his tribe, and I think he could go far through relationship-building.
• Christian: Cap'n Nerd Squad is a castaway stereotype we've seen before, but as discussed in the Greenberg household, we think he's more of a First Season Cochran rather than 2nd Season Cochran. He got a lot of air time early but he's on the underdog tribe looking to take a leadership role and that can be a dangerous position to be in when the inevitable tribal mix-up happens.
• Dan: is in for a world of hurt when he realizes that this isn't a show about finding love and talking about how hot he and/or his fellow castaways are. Also I really could have done without watching him pull an idol out of his undies. Still, props to Dan for finding the idol. Maybe he has more potential than I'm giving him credit for...
• Davie: I learned what "blerd" means from Davie, which is cool, as is catching an octopus. A potential provider for a tribe who can bond with the reigning Nerd Party on this island could have strong potential.
• Elizabeth: This friendly cowgirl hasn't given me any indication that she can get very far in this game & was understandably one of the last picks of the season.
• Gabby: First impression of Gabby is that she reminds me of Melissa, so I'm definitely cheering for her. I'm worried she might end up prioritizing loyalty over winning the game, though. Hopefully she can step up as a leader and build a resume while also building friendships. Also #Nerdlove?
• Jeremy: Someone else we know nearly nothing about, though I did love his "I'm only out looking for an idol because everyone else is, and damned if I'm going to build a shelter when no one else is" line. But that's not really enough info to be able to judge someone's potential on, so we'll have to wait & see with him.
• Jessica: The sweet 19-year-old who may be in over her head.
• John: Ab-raham Lincoln "they hate that in Mexico, isn't that funny?" John is SO unsuited for this game. That dude's gotta be 250 pounds, right? These big guys with big names & assumed big bank accounts do not thrive on this show. And he certainly has no business being the #3 overall pick in the draft. Also, even if you really like John, metagame this draft Moon! Who on earth else would draft this guy before the 3rd round? You could've gotten John two times & much higher caliber player in the #3 overall pick. C'mon man.
• Kara: Well, we know she's blonde and she's hot, but what else do we know? Kara may get handicapped by association with Dan. Early on this is shaping up to the be the next Cole/Jessica relationship.
• Lyrsa: "Spunky" is the word that comes to mind when I think of Lyrsa. Not sure about how much of a competitor she'll be & previews of next week make it look like she'll be targeted. Though we've all been fooled by that before!
• Mike: Mike totally looks like Woogie from There's Something About Mary. Ding ding ding, Doug! He could be the next bald guy David, but I doubt it. His story is already known so he won't have a good character arc to get him by. Also apparently the only person talking to him is Natalie, which is a bad bad sign. I foresee an early exit here.
• Natalia: Maybe a little too aggressive for the first couple days on the island, but she seems smart, crafty, and ready to make moves. I hope she goes far because she's my early pick to win it all.
• Natalie: So bad that it was known before this draft even began that she'd be a double dreg this season
• Nick: Did Nick come on Survivor to win, or just to make up random names for the fake alliances he's building? Might last longer than originally expected due to the editing of the show, but I hope not. This guy seems smug, lazy, and in-genuine in almost every way. 

Power Rankings:

1. Michal: Obviously this is the best team. Well-rounded, with hopefully a good mix of point-scorers in challenges as well as the wily ones who will go deep in the game. Honestly I do like my team a lot but many choices were made based on perceived potential rather than anything most of these castaways have done as of yet.
    
2. Bagdrea: This team is really solid. Lots of diversity, maybe not a lot of intelligence though. Replace Dan with an Angelina or Alison or Natalia though & I'd have a hard time saying anything bad about this team.
    
3. Doug & Bri: This team does look eerily like Bag's, but agreed that you only need to be half worried about it, Doug. I think too much depends on Bi with this team, though, since there's a lot of overlap with Bag, and I think that may prove to be your downfall. I'll still be cheering for her, though, and I hope she proves me wrong!
    
4. Phil: Why did people like Alec so much? I think taking him round 2 was a mistake, but overall I find this team unobjectionable. Getting Jeremy in the last round could be a huge dreg pick-up too...
    
5.  Eric: I like a lot of Eric's choices in his draft especially Natalia & Gabby, but he lost points by admitting that drafting Jessica was an error and that he drafted the wrong blonde. And not that I don't love women power, but I think it's risky to draft an all-female team in Survivor pool. Especially when we now know that 85% of idols are found by men, and there are definitely challenges where men will be favored to win. Both of which are huge point scorers in the pool. But this might be the first time we've ever seen an all-female team so what do I know. It is the Year of the Woman after all, right?
   
6. Moon & Melissa: MoonBee brought a club to a chess match when they double-drafted the Mayor of Slamtown. Also, while our sample size is tiny, there's no evidence that the double-draft is a winning strategy in Survivor Pool. The last 2 winners had no double-drafted players. But MoonBee doubled-down on the double-draft and did so with some hugely questionable players. And then they threw a dash of Gabby on top & called it a day. Please provide some comments explaining these choices because I'm honestly bewildered by what happened here. Though having a weekly opportunity to mock this team through the blog is definitely a perk. :)