Survivor 29: Episode 7

Every episode seems like it starts the same way - with a Misfit being the primary target for elimination. But ultimately the contestants get distracted by someone else & a different team ends up taking the hit instead. The same held true for this latest episode, though this was definitely a closer call than any of the others!

The merge & the subsequent alliance shifts & formations were all pretty inevitable. Ultimately this was a predictable episode since we've long known about the quitter. The most interesting part was watching Josh & Jeremy both vying for Jon & Jaclyn's favor. It's a little annoying that Jon is the decision-maker in this relationship (at least for now) as Jaclyn is clearly the smarter of the two. Jon makes decisions and when he tries to explain why they are the right decision the closest he can get is just to say "this is better for us long term." Not really an explanation, sir. Next episode should be much more interesting as we watch the courting of J&J by J&J continue.

Side Bets:

See Ben's comments from last week for a nice summary.

The Teams:

Michal & Ben "The Misfits": 38 points

1. Josh (9 pts)
2. Jeremy (9 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (14 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 17 points

1. Reed (13 pts)
2. Natalie (12 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (-2 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 15 points

1. Alec (9 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (10 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 7 points

1. Baylor (2 pts)
2. Jon (5 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points


Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - This team is in great shape. With a 20 point lead already & 2 more players still in the game to earn jury points, it's going to be tough to beat this team. Despite a tough episode this week I still think that Jeremy is the favorite to win the show, but Missy, Josh & Keith are all contenders too. This team pitted against each other, but since it's 2 v. 2 it doesn't really affect us too much which side wins (except of course for side bet reasons) in the Josh v Jeremy showdown.

2. Daddy Issues - Outside of the Misfits Jon probably has the best chance of winning this season. Natalie is a potential contender too, but Jon's story with an ailing father is far more endearing to a jury than that of a chronic reality show contestant. Baylor is proving to be more & more useless as the show goes on. After the first episode I thought she'd be a player but now it seems like she's incapable of being a leader and needs to have a stronger personality telling her what to do.

3. Queers & Foreigners - Quitter Julie was completely devastating to this team. It's a 20 point hit that I can't see them bouncing back from. Reed continues to be a non-entity and I'm predicting he'll get voted out in a collateral damage situation after Josh wins an immunity. Or maybe Reed will win immunity, give it to Josh, and pay the consequences. Natalie is a potential threat, but she's also put all her eggs in the Missy/Jeremy basket. Her fate will depend on those two's ability to keep Jon & Jaclyn loyal.

4. The Buffoons - Wes & Alec seem like the types who could win some points for Bag & Andrea in upcoming challenges. But this has been a season that is almost the exact opposite of a standard Survivor season - the elderly & minorities are running the show & that seems to include old man Keith winning the physical challenges! We'll see if either of these guys produce before their certain demise.

Douche of the Week

I'm assuming Julie is a shoe-in for this one, what with her food-stealing, whining, and quitting for no good reason. At least that's where my vote is going.

Survivor 29: Episode 6

I think it's safe to say that this is not the smartest batch of contestants on Survivor, but it's still super entertaining to watch them bumble their way through a series of mishaps that have never happened on the show before. Lost flint? Check. Weird bartering with Probst? Check. Rice binging? Check. I believe it was just a few seasons ago that Tyson encouraged his team to binge eat their food before the merge, and even THAT tribe didn't run out of rice!  

I predict that next, the merged tribe will lose another flint, or maybe a machete, or some of the fishing gear. I suspect that Jeff's bartering days are over - except for a Survivor Auction that I hope still happens! 

All things considered, losing their comfort seemed like a small price to pay for getting a whole bag of rice. However, my new favorite Survivor op ed writer (http://tvrecaps.ew.com/recap/survivor-san-juan-del-sur-episode-6/) points out that with an impending merge there's really only so much the producers could do to punish this tribe without getting ridiculous. And if Julie ends up quitting because of the lost tarp then I will have to call it just. 


The Teams:  

Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 33 points 

1. Josh (9 pts)
2. Jeremy (10 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (8 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 28 points 

1. Reed (13 pts)
2. Natalie (12 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (9 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 15 points

1. Alec (9 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (10 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 7 points 

1. Baylor (2 pts)
2. Jon (5 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (-1 pt)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points
 

 
Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits -I think this episode soundly proved that Keith is NOT a favorite to win this game. The man had absolutely no idea what was going on in his tribe during the vote & that doesn't bode well considering that his only plan once they make the merge is to join up with his son. Care to bring an alliance along with you, Keith? How about some inside info into the ongoings of your current tribe? No? Too busy napping, I suppose. Jeremy on the other hand got through what will probably be the riskiest time for him in the game -- probably until there are 6 players left. Missy is getting more annoying, but she's laid the all-important social game groundwork to get Natalie to essentially publicly jump ship from her tribe. They are looking really solid.

2. Daddy Issues - Daddy Issues reminds me of the Black Knight from Monty Python.They've had a couple of limbs removed, sure... but it might just be a flesh wound. The real talent & hope for this team is still there, and better yet, they're in an alliance with each other. If the Baylor/Missy/Jon/Jaclyn alliance teams up with Jeremy & Natalie, they'll be in great shape against a Josh/Reed/Alec/Wes alliance. Julie & Keith are unknowns but I'd guess that Keith will join up with his son on the losing side & Julie will stick with Jeremy unless/until she quits. And any alliance that's relying on Wes, Alec & Keith to be well-informed & have a clear idea of what the strategy is doesn't really have a chance. 

3. Queers & Foreigners - Reed finally got some air time! Granted, he was one of two players in a challenge, so it's hard for him to NOT get air time. And while his Spiderman skills were impressive, even more impressive was Natalie's game play. As with everything she does, it's a little too... loud... for my tastes. Still, she's making moves & there aren't that many contestants on this season who are perceptive enough to understand what she's doing. Julie is currently the odds-on favorite to be the quitter, though, so this team is still ranked 3rd in my book.  

4. The Buffoons -It's weird to see the Buffoons currently sitting in 3rd place in the point rankings, but I'm not fooled! The Buffoons are aptly named & disinclined to come up with their own ideas or strategy. With a merge on the horizon they need to be prepared to make moves, understand alliances, etc. I don't think they get any of that. Actually I think that Alec would leave the show happily at any time now that he's outlasted his brother.


Douche of the Week:

If my favorite op ed writer could vote I'm guessing he'd vote Reed for trying to spin sending Julie to exile as a compliment rather than a punishment. Certainly a valid argument! Jeremy is also a strong candidate for griping about his tribe giving up comfort items for food. (Thank goodness he kept his opinions to himself & the camera!) However, I'm going to vote for Jon for believing that Dale's fake idol was real. Thank you, Jaclyn, for pointing out that it could be fake, but Jon immediately disregarded this notion. I sense a chauvinistic streak in him, but maybe I'm overthinking it and he's only just dumb.

Survivor 29: Episode 5

The tribal mix-up has polarized the pool - we now have 3 teams out of 4 whose entire stable is on one tribe. For the next couple of weeks until the merge we should see a lot of spikes in points. The merge is just around the corner, though, so don't count on this lasting for too long!

While I'm sad to see the previous tribe dynamics play out, the mix-up did create an interesting situation for the loved ones. Wes & Keith are the only ones not paired up, and it probably is working to their advantage at this point. After all, Kelley's demise is almost entirely attributed to her forced alliance with her father. 

If anyone has some insight as to 1) why Jon & Jaclyn sided with Missy & Baylor, and 2) why they decided to vote out Kelley over Dale, I'd love to hear it! I'm thrilled for the Misfits that they chose Missy & Baylor, but I'm not sure it makes sense. After all, Jaclyn said right from the start "I don't trust Baylor"... and isn't trust what this game is all about? And if this tribe really wants to challenge the blue team in the next 1-2 immunity challenges, shouldn't they have voted out the elder statesman of the Kelley/Dale alliance?

On the other side of the island, a mass plan of manipulation is being waged on Alec that is sure to be successful because, well, it's Alec. The plan might even be a bit of overkill with this kid, but I like seeing how smoothly & sneakily it's being executed at this point. Could they end up going too subtle? That could potentially be a problem. But overall, stroking his ego by telling him that he's so much cooler, smarter & better than his brother, and cautioning him against the dangers of allying with doubles is a great strategy, especially if given enough time for it to sink in. 

Another question: Now that almost all the loved ones are on the same tribe as each other, how will the Hero's Challenge play out? Will the rock-paper-scissors winner get to choose who they go up against?


The Teams:  

Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 27 points 

1. Josh (6 pts)
2. Jeremy (7 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (8 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 20 points 

1. Reed (9 pts)
2. Natalie (9 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (8 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 10 points 

1. Baylor (3 pts)
2. Jon (5 pts)
3. Kelley (1 pt)
4. Dale (1 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 9 points

1. Alec (6 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (7 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Dreg Tracker - Jaclyn: 2 points
 

 
Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - Our biggest issue at this point will be if the blue tribe loses a challenge before the merge. Then Jeremy & Josh will be gunning for each other with potentially disastrous results for the Misfits. However, I could totally see Jeremy's plan working on Alec, but then gunning for Reed instead of Josh since Alec knows & likes Josh better. It'd be a good appeasement/compromise. Missy now seems secure & Keith is flying under the radar with an immunity idol, so things are good for our elderly folks.

2. Daddy Issues - The tribal mix-up resulted in a civil war for this team, and Kelley is the first casualty. She probably won't be the last. Issues over rice & who mentioned Dale's name on Day 1 really shouldn't have been enough to tear this potentially powerful alliance apart, but in the end it did. Now Doug & Bri really need to hope for a couple of big challenge victories from the yellow tribe before the merge, or they could get decimated. Jon & Jaclyn need to start thinking long-term too. If yellow loses the next challenge & they vote out Dale, then J&J could find themselves in the minority of their alliance if yellow loses again. It should be pretty easy for Missy to convince Keith to vote with her & Baylor since they're both parents, similar age group, etc. But, if J&J try to target, say, Baylor next time, then they are suddenly the only allied pair on the tribe moving forward, which would again put a big target on them! Of course I could be overthinking it - they may win challenges or there may only be one challenge left before the merge, so this could all be a moot point. Still, they should start building a stronger relationship with Keith now if they want to try & keep themselves safe.

3. Queers & Foreigners - This seems like a strong team, but I just don't see any winners here. Natalie, perhaps, but her vociferousness could be a problem. Neither Reed nor Julie are proving to be all that great at strategy. Still, they all have the potential to go far & earn a lot of points along the way. With the new point system awarding more points for folks who make it deep in the jury, that could be all it takes to win this season.
4. The Buffoons - Alec is definitely going to be used as a pawn for the remainder of his time in the game. Wes is smarter & a better strategist, but he just may not be in the position to make any big moves. Things might change though once they make the merge.


Douche of the Week:

The level of douchiness has dropped off significantly since the season premiere! With both Rocker & Drew gone, the choices for DOW will be less obvious moving forward. This week I'll give my vote to Dale for freaking out so much about the portioning of rice. Certainly not a major faux pas, but potentially this reaction is what convinced Jon & Jaclyn to vote out his daughter.

Survivor 29: Episode 4

What an episode! I mean really, this is what we watch the show for, right? Scheming, chaos, seriously idiotic plays & people... this is Survivor at its best. I have several comments & opinions on this episode but I also highly recommend this article for some excellent insight & hilarity: http://tvrecaps.ew.com/recap/survivor-san-juan-del-sur-episode-4/. 

Throughout the entire episode I wanted to throttle Drew, he was SO stupid & SO cocky & SO annoying. But he was also fascinating - I couldn't help but wonder what it would be like to live in the universe that he's created for himself. Things must be pleasant in a world where you are king of everything & smarter than everyone - it must be so much better than living in the actual world where you are the exact opposite kind of human being.

In the end it was extremely satisfying to watch him get voted out. Really, he accomplished exactly what he set out to do, which was to eliminate the snakes from the blue tribe. 

The upcoming tribe mix-up is pretty vexing to me, especially after all the excitement of the last few episodes. I want to see the long-term effects of the two most recent votes & how the tribes as they stand now deal with the fall-out & new dynamics! Would the women on the blue tribe take over the game? Would Jon finally pull his head out of his ass? Would the yellow tribe use this victory as the momentum they need to string together a few victories? I guess we'll never know, which is a real shame. 

The Teams:  

Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 21 points 

1. Josh (3 pts)
2. Jeremy (4 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (8 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 13 points 

1. Baylor (3 pts)
2. Jon (5 pts)
3. Kelley (4 pts)
4. Dale (1 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 11 points 

1. Reed (6 pts)
2. Natalie (6 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (5 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 3 points

1. Alec (3 pts)
2. Drew (2 pts)
3. Wes (4 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Dreg Tracker: 2 points
I've started tracking the points Jaclyn would have earned had she been selected to a team. I honestly don't think she would have earned any points before this episode, so this is easy to start tracking now. If you think I'm wrong, though, please let me know! Do you remember her ever sitting out a challenge, perhaps?
Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - Keith's shenanigans in this episode are enough to get him demoted to the Buffoons. Not only is he an inept clue-reader & idol-hunter, he also has no understanding of how the game of Survivor works. He had one ally (that we know about) and the first chance he gets he threw him under the bus. On the plus side he managed to find the idol... eventually, but I'm not sure he'll have the wherewithal to know if/when he needs to use it. Jeremy & Missy seem to be in good shape for now, but who really knows how things will shake out with the tribe switcheroo. Hopefully Keith & Jeremy will end up on separate tribes, though.

2. Daddy Issues - Baylor didn't come off all that great this episode - anyone who lets themselves get pushed around by a Christy brother loses a lot of respect with me. Plus she tried to insult Alec by calling him a woman which was actually a complement to Alec & a huge insult to women. Jon may also have issues now that his best buddy is gone, but again who can say with the changes on the horizon? Kelley & Dale may both come out for the better, though. Tribe changes are bound to draw attention to higher profile players & these two should be able to fly under the radar.


3. Queers & Foreigners - Reed is still largely absent from all scheming & TV time - time to get worried Moon & Melissa! I really like Natalie & the game she's playing but I can see how her mouth could get her in trouble further down the road - hopefully she ends up on a team with a bunch of allies. Julie will most likely benefit from the tribe mix-up. Her position in the blue tribe was improving but still a little shaky. Now she could play the role of critical swing vote & move herself up a few spots on the totem pole. Or, she could stay true to her current tribe when they need her most & again move up on the totem pole. 

4. The Buffoons - It's just too easy to make fun of this team! OF COURSE Drew was on the Buffoons' team - he actually nominated himself as their coach, captain, manager, starting quarterback, star receiver, and mascot. His stunning leadership skills will probably take this team to having one of the earliest exits, and lowest scores, in survivor pool history. Perhaps Wes will be able to salvage a little dignity for Bag & Andrea, but I have no hope that someone in any way related to Drew will have a positive impact for this team.


Douche of the Week:

I'd like to vote for the enormous bug that crawled up Keith's shoulder during tribal council & horrified me so much I had nightmares about it last night. But alas, that cicada isn't an actual contestant on the show. Although it probably could think circles around Drew. So, Drew "I'm the leader because I say things no one else is stupid enough to say" Christy gets my vote. Every word out of that guy's mouth this episode earns him this honor. 

Survivor 29: Episode 3

This really has been a solid season so far. There are enough real players & schemers that you never really know who is going to get voted out in any given episode. Also, despite the 5-1 record of blue v. yellow, the challenges really have been pretty close. Blue's won the last 2 immunity challenges 3-2 or 4-3 and both challenges were competitive throughout.

Will Rocker's departure help the yellow tribe become a more cohesive & winning group? I definitely don't think it hurt. Rocker was massive & athletic but his track record in the heads-up physical matches wasn't good. He was catching fish for them, but his bulky self would need a LOT of food long-term to sustain him and I don't think he could've kept his energy up much longer anyway. He wasn't useful for team/camp morale and he didn't contribute to puzzles or other mental challenges. So overall I think it was a good decision, although we'll see if that holds true if/when a big physical challenge comes up.

On the other side of the island, the blue tribe seems to be doing really well. They're improving their shelter, haven't lost any major possessions in 3 days, and generally seem to be getting along. Most interestingly, there really doesn't seem to be a clear leader yet. Most everyone is contributing, sharing their opinions, etc. (Obviously Drew is the exception to this.) It certainly helps that they haven't had to go to tribal yet, but so far I'd say this is one of the most stable/least neurotic tribes on the show in recent memory. That could fall apart really easily though; they could totally end up being one of those tribes that loses a challenge on purpose just to get rid of an annoying player & then have that snowball into a series of losses.


The Teams:  

Ben & Michal "The Misfits": 15 points

1. Josh (0 pts)
2. Jeremy (6 pts)
3. Missy (6 pts)
4. Keith (3 pts)

Moon & Melissa "Queers & Foreigners": 11 points

1. Reed (6 pts)
2. Natalie (6 pts)
3. Rocker (-6 pts)
4. Julie (5 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 10 points

1. Baylor (0 pts)
2. Jon (6 pts)
3. Kelley (6 pts)
4. Dale (-2 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": 1 point

1. Alec (0 pts)
2. Drew (6 pts)
3. Wes (1 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. The Misfits - Things are going about as well as we could hope for the Misfits. Josh is running the show on the yellow tribe & everyone still loves him despite switching his vote at the last minute... twice. Missy is being the mother hen nurturer that we were counting on -- really, who hasn't cried on her shoulder yet? Jeremy is keeping his cool despite his wife's early departure, and Keith is, well, Keith. We also have 2 players with immunity idol clues so one of them better find that thing soon!

2. Queers & Foreigners - Moon & Melissa took a big hit with Rocker's departure. While they still have a strong team, the negative points he accrued could have a significant impact in what could end up being a close battle. Natalie continues to impress, and Reed seems solid too, although M&M should get concerned by his lack of airtime if that continues for another 1-2 episodes. Julie is in trouble though. If blue loses a challenge soon she's an easy target just because her association with Rocker has made her an outsider.

3. Daddy Issues - Doug & Bri still have plenty of bullets to dodge. An episode hasn't gone by without one of their players being suggested for tribal. Baylor may be in a more comfortable position now, but Dale is probably on the chopping block next. Jon & Kelley do seem solid but if the yellow team gets decimated before the merge, team Daddy Issues will be in a hole that I think will be too big to get out of.

4. The Buffoons - Buffoons!! This episode was pretty smooth for Bag & Andrea although there was a scary moment at the end when Alec appeared to want to think for himself. Fortunately stronger minds & personalities prevailed & Rocker was voted out. Intelligence-wise I think this team is ranked Wes > Alec > Drew, and that's pretty concerning considering that Wes lost flint on the first day of the show. Outlook not good for Drew making the merge based on previews for next week too.


Douche of the Week:

Gotta go with Rocker for pretty much everything he did this episode, but in particular his threatening & unwise reaction to the blue team's barbs. 

Survivor 29: Episode 2

Well, I forgot to write the top section of this blog before posting it & letting everyone know it had been posted. So for this week I'm just going to let the scores & power rankings to the talking.


The Teams:  

Moon & Melissa "????": 12 points

1. Reed (3 pts)
2. Natalie (3 pts)
3. Rocker (4 pts)
4. Julie (2 pts)

Ben & Michal "????": 9 points

1. Josh (0 pts)
2. Jeremy (3 pts)
3. Missy (3 pts)
4. Keith (3 pts)

Doug & Bri "Daddy Issues": 6 points

1. Baylor (0 pts)
2. Jon (3 pts)
3. Kelley (3 pts)
4. Dale (0 pts)

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons": -3 points

1. Alec (0 pts)
2. Drew (3 pts)
3. Wes (0 pts)
4. Val (-6 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. Moon & Melissa - Moon & Melissa's team did nothing but make themselves appear more formidable over this episode. Reed appears to be taking a leadership role, Natalie is proving less annoying than her sister & very much a part of the team, and Julie is a solid competitor. Rocker seems to be every bit the jackass we expected him to be, but he managed to get himself an immunity idol so he's also exceeding expectations.

2. Michal & Ben - This episode also made our team look good. While choosing minorities, LGBT & elderly folks for the survivor pool is generally ill-advised this season seems to be an exception. The players who are drawing the most negative attention this time around are the young, straight, white folks. We'll see if that trend continues, but for now at least we're in a pretty comfortable position.

3. Daddy Issues - In this last episode we learned that Jon is an idiot & Baylor is sitting in a precarious position. No good news for Doug & Bri this episode except maybe that Dale's name didn't come up at all when discussing who to vote out. Hopefully Baylor will be able to solidify her place in her alliance - she needs more ins with the guys than just Josh - otherwise she could be in trouble.

4. The Buffoons - The Buffoons are living up to their name. They're doing push-ups to prove their manliness, cheering for the wrong team, and aggressively & fantastically stating that in the course of 6 days they've managed to acquire not just one but two immunity idols. The only surprise here is that it wasn't someone from this team who lost Blue Team's flint. 


Douche of the Week:

My vote is for Drew because he cheered for the wrong gay man in the immunity challenge. After living together for 6 days you'd think he would remember the names of his tribemates!

Don't forget - team names are due by next Wednesday!!

Survivor 29: The Draft

Survivor is back! With all new castaways & a kind of new format, I'm excited to see what happens. While the first episode didn't reveal any crazy good schemers or just plain crazy people, fear not! It's early & the hunger & paranoia haven't set in yet. I am very optimistic that we'll have a season chock full of blindsides, bad moves, and general shenanigans. After celebrating the Ben & Michal win from last season, and watching 1 episode, we made our draft picks. Several rule changes were implemented this year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoh0Nvq7LdAEdDNUM3NqWDZhZWtwdzl4WGt1SXl1X3c&usp=sharing. I think it's extremely unlikely we'll get close to the record score Doug & Bri set with 208 points one season since we've added so many negative points this season, but we might see a new all-time low! (I would love to get de-throned from that honor.) I'm exciting to see what the consequences of these changes are as the reason rolls on.


The Teams:  

Bag & Andrea "The Buffoons"

1. Alec (#1 overall pick)
2. Drew (#8 overall pick)
3. Wes (#10 overall pick)
4. Val (#15 overall pick)

Ben & Michal "????"

1. Josh (#2 overall pick)
2. Jeremy (#7 overall pick)
3. Missy (#12 overall pick)
4. Keith (#13 overall pick)

Moon & Melissa "????"

1. Reed (#3 overall pick)
2. Natalie (#6 overall pick)
3. Rocker (#9 overall pick)
4. Julie (#16 overall pick)

Doug & Bri "????"

1. Baylor (#4 overall pick)
2. Jon (#5 overall pick)
3. Kelley (#11 overall pick)
4. Dale (#14 overall pick)

Power Rankings:

1. Moon & Melissa - While it's too early to call anything with confidence, I think this is a solid team. Reed & Natalie didn't get a lot of attention early, but they're on a good tribe & I can see them going far. Rocker will probably draw a lot of fire early but should be able to bring in some points before he gets voted out. And I think that Julie is a great dreg pick. She's in a similar position & has a similar attitude as Monica Culpepper, who seriously exceeded expectations in the last Blood v. Water season.

2. Michal & Ben - Josh & Jeremy got a lot of attention in the first episode, which means they could be "going the distance" players or they could be "gotta give them some air time before they're off the show" types. Obviously we're gambling that it's the former. Missy & Keith are among the elder statesmen of the season, but they aren't ancient & I'm guessing they have the grit to get them through challenges.

3. Doug & Bri - This is potentially a great team, but we need to see how the next couple episodes play out. Dale could still draw some fire, especially if the yellow tribe loses some physical challenges. Jon's ailing father could be a warning sign that this is the player who quits this season. But Baylor is my favorite pick of the season at this stage in the game & if my concerns turn out to be groundless there are a lot of players on this team that could go far.

4. The Buffoons - An aptly named team, as Bag & Andrea fall into the same trap they do almost every season. Bag's drawn to brawn like moth to a flame & as a result this team consistently overlooks the brains aspect of the show. Still, with a little luck, this team could be a contender. This is a team that could do well if they coattail-ride real strategists & pull in points on challenges. If they try to be their own masterminds, though, this team is in for an early exit.