BBB: Episode 5

Guest Blogger: Moon

Survivor: Cagayan is quietly turning into an intriguing season. Most of the weak/stupid/douchey castaways have been cast away, leaving delectable inner fruit for us to enjoy down the stretch. Tony is the straw that stirs this concoction, and his asinine "Final Five" exclamations drew a line in the sand between the two tribes - just in time for the merge.

The trailer for next week's merge episode unsurprisingly cast the "Final Five" against the "Zombies" or whatever you want to call the Brain-led, Beauty-bodied tribe, with former Brawn member Sarah as the fulcrum. You'd have to think those "Final Five" ejaculations would point Sarah towards the Zombies while dissuading the other Zombies from jumping ship. The writing may be on the wall for the "Final Five" already.

LJ is the only true player of the Five, the only one who might be able to save them, or at least save himself. He's played a brilliant game - steadily collecting prestige with the audience while somehow maintaining a low profile on the island. He's already worked his way out of a couple jams and has an idol in his back pocket. He inspires allegiance and is capable of winning an individual immunity or two if need be.

LJ is the favorite at this moment, but he's no guarantee to even make the jury. It's wide open. The odds of each castaway winning might look something like this:

LJ: 3-1

Spencer: 4-1
  - He was wise to hold it together during the darkest days of Brain's lobotomy, because now he's got as much power as anyone on the show.

Kass: 7-1
Tasha: 7-1
  - It's amusing how quickly Brains' cerebrum has gained control of this game - without any audacious moves. There's no reason these ladies can't make final three, but they'd be wise to jettison Spencer along the way in favor of a less savory character like Tony or Morgan.

Sarah: 9-1
  - Sarah finds herself without an alliance, but she's got the chops to win it if she can maneuver her way through the next couple votes.

Trish: 10-1
  - Trish is poised to make a deep run in this game but she's got a problem: people don't really seem to like her.

Jeremiah: 13-1
  - Tony orchestrated a randomly cold attack on Jeremiah, but give the Southerner credit for fighting through it. Jeremiah isn't stunningly athletic, charming or crafty, but he is a little of all of those things.

Woo: 17-1
  - Woo is who we thought he was - a point-generator without the social game to seriously threaten the winner's circle.

Morgan: 20-1
  - It's notable that Morgan survived longer than Alexis. Early on it looked like Morgan was standing on very thin ice, but she wasn't even considered in the last vote. She's now on firmer ground.

Tony: 25-1
  - Is there anyone Tony could beat at final tribal? Maybe

Jefra: 30-1
  - Jefra has yet to distinguish herself. She's not drawing dead, but will have to make explicit moves down the stretch to gain recognition from the jury.



Standings:

Boston Cougars: 36 points
  1. LJ (17 points)
  2. Trish (13 points)
  3. Cliff (10 points)
  4. Lindsey (-4 points)

J'Tude: 26 points
  1. Tony (11 points)
  2. Kass (4 points)
  3. Jeremiah (8 points)
  4. J'Tia (3 points)

WooBrr: 25 points
  1. Woo (13 points)
  2. Brice (0 points)
  3. Alexis (2 points)
  4. Jefra (10 points)

Sinkers and Floaters: 21 points
  1. Sarah (9 points)
  2. Morgan (2 points)
  3. Tasha (4 points)
  4. Spencer (6 points)


Power Rankings:

1. Sinkers and Floaters
Great episode for Sinkers and Floaters. Tasha and Spencer continued to gain power and stability, Morgan moved up in the pecking order, Sarah is going to be a player in the next episode, and Lindsey's exit anchors the Cougars within striking distance. 

2. Boston Cougars
Lindsey's unexpected departure was a crusher for the Cougs. Not only did we drop ten points, but we lost the implied value of her future challenge/coattail points. Before this episode it appeared as if we might have a shot at winning the pool without the Sole Survivor, but those dreams are dead. It's LJ or Bust for the Cougs.

3. J'Tude
Tony is a maniac. The man is too into the game. He needs to lay low for a few days and arrange his endgame alliances - if he even survives the merge. A vengeful Sarah may spell doom for him at the next Tribal.

4. WooBrr
Doubri is in trouble. If they haven't already, they need to temper their hopes for this season and get ready for the Bachelorette pool. The goal now is to avoid last place.

BBB: Episode 4

Guest Blogger: Bag

While Michal is in South Africa, I'll be blogging this episode and Moon will be blogging next week's.

First, some administrative business to take care of. Because Moon & Melissa failed to get their team name submitted in time, Michal gave me the excellent gift of choosing their name for them. While the possibilities would be endless if their team was poor, I found it hard to come up with a fitting name given that they drafted a good team and have a good shot to win. So, in order to hinder the legacy as much as I can, their team name is  . That is not a typo - their team name is the space character.

They will now join the ranks of other famous nameless entities, such as:

The Merge:
 
This week proved to be a big episode as the three tribes merged into two new tribes. The breakdown in relation to our pool was very interesting. Let's see who fared best in the minutes after the merge:

Orange: Aparri
Sarah (Brawn) (Sinkers and Floaters)
Spencer (Brains) (Sinkers and Floaters)
Morgan (Beauty) (Sinkers and Floaters)
Kass (Brains) (J'Tude)
Tasha (Brains) (Sinkers and Floaters)
Jeremiah (Beauty) (J'Tude)
Alexis (Beauty) (WooBrr)

Purple: Salana
Cliff (Brawn) ( )
LJ (Beauty) ( )
Tony (Brawn) (J'Tude)
Jefra (Beauty) (WooBrr)
Lindsey (Brawn) ( )
Woo (Brawn) (WooBrr)
Trish (Brawn) ( )

It was immediately clear that Sinkers and Floaters and   had all their eggs put in one basket. For Sinkers and Floaters, this could not have gone better. Beauty instantly started jumping ship on Aparri and if Sarah and/or Morgan can get picked up as allies for the Brains, Sinkers and Floaters has a great shot. If Brains pick up Jeremiah, J'Tude has hope. It will all depend on how their first tribal council goes down, but things are looking up for Sinkers and Floaters and/or J'Tude.

Things did not break as well for  . LJ got the shaft by drawing all of Brawn, less Sarah, and his only ally is Jefra. Despite having the idol, LJ will need to pull a move to stay in the game.

WooBrr was divided into the two new tribes as equally as you can divide three humans. Unfortunately, Woo is the only one in a majority group on the new tribes. The cold front is here to stay for WooBrr. 

Reward Challenge:
The challenge involved two people dragging an opposing team member holding on to a post for dear life across a line. Aparri jumped in front early after a tenacious performance from Tasha, but the brawn of Salana won out and the reward of breakfast pastries and beverages was theirs.

Immunity Challenge:
I was playing some CandyCrush during the challenge but I do recall a post they had to ram through a wall and then work through a maze. The first team to bang a gong won. You would think this would be a good challenge for Salana but Aparri came through with a team effort and won immunity, sending all of   to tribal and none of Sinkers and Floaters.

Tribal Council:
After a big back and forth, complete with CBS editing, the two possibilities to go home emerged as Cliff and LJ, both members of  . There was a clear choice of who everyone but   wished it was, but LJ did a brilliant job wooing the Boston cougar and was saved, did not have to play his idol, did not lose   any points, and has an equal alliance to the now fractured original Brawn. Cliff was ousted and became the first post-merge casualty.

Next week on, Survivor:
A line in the sand appears to be drawn between Lindsey and Trish. I am assuming that the Salana Six will be divided like so:
Salana A:
Lindsey
Tony
Woo

Salana B:
Trish
LJ
Jefra

Perhaps the idol will be played by LJ and a member of Salana A will go down, leaving   in a good spot with Trish and LJ working together.

If Aparri ends up going to tribal, it looks like the victim will be a dummy, as all the power seems to lie with Brains.

The Teams:

Moon & Melissa " ": 36 Points

1. LJ (12 Points)
2. Cliff (10 Points)
3. Trish (8 Points)
4. Lindsey (6 Points)

Bag & Andrea "Sinkers and Floaters": 25 Points

1. Sarah (9 Points)
2. Tasha (6 Points)
3. Spencer (6 Points)
4. Morgan (4 Points)

Michal & Ben "J'Tude": 23 Points

1. Jeremiah (8 Points)
2. Tony (6 Points)
3. Kass (6 Points)
4. J'Tia (3 Points)

Doug & Bri "WooBrr": 17 Points

1. Woo (8 Points)
2. Jefra (5 Points)
3. Alexis (4 Points)
4. Brice (0 Points) 

(I think the scoring is correct, but Michal will review it in case I messed it up.)

Power Rankings:

1.   - They lost Cliff and LJ was put in a dicey spot, but his chances greatly improved with his new ally Trish. LJ is smart and capable and he has the idol, but if LJ gets blind sided, this team will fall from grace. It was not a good episode for  .

2. Sinkers and Floaters - I think it is close between J'Tude and Sinkers but we have four people still and a couple more points. I also think the Spencer/Tasha/Kass alliance is very strong and we have two of the three members. If Sarah can join forces with Brains, I think we'd surpass   in the power rankings.

3. J'Tude - Things broke well for J'Tude but the dissension on Brawn is bad for Tony. If Brains take on Jeremiah,  and Tony stays in, J'Tude would be a contender. My problem with J'Tude is that I don't really see any winners of the game on this team.

4. WooBrr - Poor WooBrr. Nothing to write home about here. It's going to have to be a one Woo show and he just lost his big buddy Cliff. Maybe Jefra can ride LJ's coattails to some points but the temperature is dropping for WooBrr.

Douche of the Week:

My DoW is Woo for not participating at all in the reward challenge. I don't really think he's douchey, but WooBrr needs all the help they can get. 

BBB: Episode 3

I'm in South Africa & quite frankly just don't feel like taking the time to write up a whole blog post. Sorry guys. But thank you Moon & Bag for guest blogging the rest of the time that I'm away!

Quick thoughts: 

- I'm sad that the 3 tribes are going to get switched up now that Brains FINALLY dropped their worse-than-dead-weight, J'Tia. 

- It is way too early imo to be throwing challenges. Hopefully Cliff & Lindsey never find out about it because otherwise I think that Sarah is screwed. 

- Also, Tony is an idiot. Still. 

- I'm not sure I've seen anyone get hit in the nuts so often in such a short period of time as LJ in that reward challenge.

- Moon & Melissa have not sent me a team name in the time period allotted. As a result, I'm giving Bag the honor of naming their team in his guest blog next week! If you have any suggestions you'd like to send him, please include them with your DoW vote.
The Teams:

Moon & Melissa "INSERT BAG NAME HERE": 30 points

1. LJ (10 pts) 
2. Trish (8 pts) 
3. Cliff (8 pts) 
4. Lindsey (4 pts) 

Andrea & Bag "Sinkers & Floaters": 15 points

1. Sarah (6 pts) 
2. Morgan (3 pts) 
3. Tasha (3 pts) 
4. Spencer (3 pts) 

Michal & Ben "J'Tude": 15 points

1. Tony (4 pts) 
2. Kass (3 pts) 
3. Jeremiah (5 pts) 
4. J'Tia (3 pts) 

Doug & Bri "WooBrr": 10 point

1. Woo (6 pts) 
2. Brice (0 pts) 
3. Alexis (1 pts) 
4. Jefra (3 pts) 

Power Rankings:

1. Moon & Melissa - Everyone else's best chance of beating this team was for the Brawn tribe to stay as is and continue to try & throw challenges to get rid of Cliff & Lindsey. Not sure that's going to happen anymore, meaning this team is still dominant. 

2. J'Tude - We lost our albatross (and team namesake). This was 100% expected. Tony's position seems to be stabilizing through no help of his own, and Jeremiah may have worked his way out of a sticky situation by killing a chicken & being on a team that doesn't seem to think on a deeper level than the ground floor.

3. Sinkers & Floaters - I'm concerned about Sarah playing the game too hard this early. Maybe it'll work out, but right now she's showing the world she's a strong competitor, smart, and a schemer. You're playing your cards too early girl, slow down! 

4. WooBrr - I need to see Jefra survive another rainstorm before moving this tribe out of the doghouse. Quitters are a point killer, and she'd definitely on the watch list. 

Douche of the Week:


J'Tia for thinking she's normally cool-headed & only messed up once in challenges. While you were entertaining, you were terrible at this game, J'Tia. My only regret is that now you will return to your nuclear engineering job sooner which means that once again the world is a less safe place.

BBB: Draft & Episode 2

With another wonderfully entertaining season of Survivor starting, the pool recommences! The draft happened right before yesterday's episode, although the Moon & Melissa victory celebration & awarding of the trophy won't happen until this weekend.

Rules changes primarily only happened to adjust to the slightly different format of this season. This season there will be a post-merge hidden immunity idol that can be played AFTER the votes are read. Apparently this terrible idea was suggested by Tyler Perry through Twitter, so we're calling it the Tyler Perry Idol, or TPI. Finding the idol gives the player a +10 bonus, but if they get voted out with it still in their possession (a virtual impossibility, but we've seen dumber things happen on this show before) they'll be docked a whopping 15 points.

In addition we've added in a "comeback" rule that if, while there are 3 tribes, the last-place tribe going into the final stage of a challenge comes back to win, everyone who competed in the challenge gets a 1 point bonus.

The Teams:

Moon & Melissa "????": 18 points

1. LJ (5 pts) - Pick #2
2. Trish (5 pts) - Pick #7
3. Cliff (5 pts) - Pick #11
4. Lindsey (3 pts) - Pick #14

Andrea & Bag "????": 11 points

1. Sarah (5 pts) - Pick #1
2. Morgan (0 pts) - Pick #8
3. Tasha (3 pts) - Pick #12
4. Spencer (3 pts) - Pick #13

Michal & Ben "J'Tude": 9 points

1. Tony (3 pts) - Pick #4
2. Kass (3 pts) - Pick #5
3. Jeremiah (0 pts) - Pick #9
4. J'Tia (3 pts) - Pick #UltimateDreg

Doug & Bri "WooBrrr...": 1 point

1. Woo (5 pts) - Pick #3
2. Brice (0 pts) - Pick #6
3. Alexis (-2 pts) - Pick #10
4. Jefra (-2 pts) - Pick #15

Power Rankings:

1. Moon & Melissa - Moon & Melissa easily have the best starting team this season. LJ was the #1 or #2 pick for everyone, and immediately proved his worth by finding an idol without any clues. The rest of their team comes from the super-tribe of Brawn so they are in great shape to rake in a lot of points early while the rest of our teams tear each othe apart.

2. J'Tude - Despite having J'Tia forced upon our team, this team has a couple players who could make it all the way to Final Tribal. It's an iffy group though -- attitudes, low emotional intelligence, and general craziness all have the potential to drown this team early. Does Tony have any strategy beyond "I'm just going to lie to & backstab everyone"? Outlook does not look good so far...

3. Bag & Andrea - Bag and Andrea started with the fantastic pick of Sarah for their team & immediately followed that with three dreadful picks. Morgan being picked in the Top 10 was a bit absurd & then Andrea made the always-dangerous decision to let Bag take the lead on choosing their final 2 picks. While Tasha & Spencer might both be worthy picks in a different season, in season 28 they are on the most disfunctional team ever this early in the game. They should have diversified their portfolio.

4. Doug & Bri - Doug & Bri tend to start cold & end hot, but this has to be one of the worst starts they've ever head. They went Beauty-heavy & then instantly suffered the consequences. If the season is as rainy as this last episode was they're in very real danger of having a quitter on their team. One of their ladies is virtually guaranteed to sit out every upcoming challenge as well, dragging down the point-earning potential of Woo. Still, never count this team out - comeback is their middle name!

Douche of the Week:

Didn't you miss DoW in the off-season? I might have to integrate DoW nominations into other aspects of my life...

Anyway, my vote this episode goes to Tony who appears to have not just Evil Russell looks but Evil Russell strategies as well... just ones that aren't thought out at all.

Blood v. Water: Finale

Good battle everyone!

Despite some last-second intrigue, Tyson maintained his iron grip on this game & came through as the clear winner of Survivor Season 27: Blood v. Water.

 

Final Scores:

MooMe: 189 pts
Vytas: 27.5 pts
Tyson: 102 pts
Monica: 58 pts
Brad: 1.5 pts
Rachel: 0 pts

AhhhhFUCKthat: 119.5 pts
John: 6 pts
Laura B: 16 pts
Candice: 4.5 pts
Gervase: 59 pts
Ciera: 34 pts
 
51st State: 107.5 pts
Aras: 38 pts
Rupert: 0 pts
Marissa: 3 pts
Caleb: 26 pts
Laura M: 40.5 pts

Mind Under Matter: 99 points
Katie: 22 pts
Hayden: 27 pts
Colton: -2 pts
Kat: 14 pts
Tina: 38 pts

Final Thoughts:

I think that each team has a player than nicely represents their own story arc this season:

- MooMe = Tyson. Sneaky & strategic, laying low at first but soon showing everyone who is really in charge & ultimately winning the whole shebang.

- AhhhhFUCKthat = Ciera. Terrible at first, but proving to be the most improved by the end of the season. Valiant battle!

- 51st State = Laura M. In the mix early, then had to deal with a huge setback, but never really out until the very end.

- Mind Under Matter = Katie. Pretty clueless the whole time, usually did better when she was neither paying attention nor invested in what was going on.


Season 28:

Survivor: Cagayan (aka needed another name for Philippines) will have 3 tribes based on Brawn, Brains, and Beauty. No returning castaways that I'm aware of. Premieres February 2014 and will start with 18 contestants. For more info: http://insidetv.ew.com/2013/12/15/survivor-cagayan-jeff-probst/.

Blood v. Water: Ep 13

I was happy to see that Ciera didn't regret her decision to swap alliances after tribal council didn't go their way. It actually seemed like a huge weight had been lifted from her shoulders -- I don't remember seeing her so animated and happy before this episode! I also like that she & Hayden got to have some nice bonding time before he left.

It seems that if Ciera makes final tribal she'll have at least Laura M, Hayden, Tina & Katie's votes. Possibly Caleb & Vytas's votes as well out of spite for Tyson/Gervase, though I'd guess that Aras would vote for Tyson (if uninfluenced by others).

What do y'all think? I'm guessing Ciera & Tyson are really the only 2 who have a chance to win right now. If Gervase was really thinking things through he should try to form a new alliance with Monica & whoever comes back from RI, vote out Ciera first & then Tyson. Monica should be thinking along the same lines, but I think her body only works to supply energy to her muscles & not her brain.

AndBag is making such a great comeback that this is going to be a close one at the finale! Less than 3 points separate AndBag from MooMe and they both have the same number of players still in the game. I think they're both going to get at least 1 of those players into the finale too, so the real question is, who ends up being the third?
 

The Teams:

51st State: 97.5 pts
1. Aras (38 pts)
2. Rupert (0 pts)
3. Marissa (3 pts)
4. Caleb (26 pts)
5. Laura M. (30.5 pts)

MooMe: 92 pts
1. Vytas (22.5 pts)
2. Tyson (35 pts)
3. Monica (33 pts)
4. Brad (1.5 pts)
5. Rachel (0 pts)

AhhhhFUCKthat: 89.5 pts
1. John (6 pts)
2. Laura B. (16 pts)
3. Candice (4.5 pts)
4. Gervase (39 pts)
5. Ciera (24 pts)

Mind Under Matter: 73 points
1. Katie (22 pts)
2. Hayden (17 pts)
3. Colton (-2 pts)
4. Kat (14 pts)
5. Tina (22 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. MooMe - Monica is all but guaranteed a spot in the finale & Tyson is certainly favored to get there over Ciera or any of the RIslanders. Still, anything can happen, and it's going to be a close finish! Ciera's proven that she can win immunity challenges & if the upcoming challenges are puzzles & endurance challenges she's probably a slight favorite to win them. Tyson needs to stay on his toes & not assume that he's got it in the bag quite yet. Winning immunity challenges is his top priority now, and probably trying to assuage Monica's hurt feelings too.

2. AhhhhFUCKthat - Ciera's strategy with Monica to tell her how much sh*t Tyvase talks about her was sooo transparent that I thought Monica would just get mad at her for playing such a childish game. Ciera clearly knew what she was doing though, since they were pretty close to getting her to switch! She may not be a subtle player, but Ciera is suprisingly effective.

3. Mind Under Matter - I'm consoled because my team is at least still trying. Tina beat her daughter, Hayden went down throwing punches the whole way. They all underperformed but at the end at least it wasn't from lack of effort.

4. 51st State - Laura M. continues to dominate RI. It's just too bad for her that Survivor is primarily a social game rather than a puzzle/challenge game. Should be a good battle to get back on the island next episode, and Laura has to be the favorite to come back. But can she really make any waves if/when she returns? I doubt it.


Douche of the Week:

Monica

Blood v. Water: Ep 12

Holy bananas! What an episode!!

This has been quite the season for last-minute vote changes. I don't think that happens very often, but now we've seen Caleb switch votes at the last second to take out B. Culpepper, and now only the second "let's draw rocks" tribal ever. They sure aren't afraid to throw caution to the winds and jump into new alliances.

I wonder how much Tyson was kicking himself when they got to the draw rocks moment. If only he'd played his newly-found hidden immunity idol! I'm also really bummed he didn't get karmically punished for not playing it. It would have been an astonishing finish to the player who's been the puppet master all season.

I wonder if Ciera considered the Mom Factor when she made the decision to change her vote. Everyone on RI at the moment would definitely side with the minority alliance if they returned to the game at this point. Do the contestants have an idea for when that might be? Was this more of a calculated risk than I thought while watching the show?

I'm extremely interested to see what happens next episode. Losing Katie over Hayden is a huge boost to the minority alliance, but at the same time they are still in the minority. Will they really be able to sway the votes of 3 people who are all but guaranteed a spot in the finals if they stick together? Will someone FINALLY talk strategy with Monica?


The Teams:

51st State: 96 pts
1. Aras (38 pts)
2. Rupert (0 pts)
3. Marissa (3 pts)
4. Caleb (26 pts)
5. Laura M. (29 pts)

MooMe: 92 pts
1. Vytas (22.5 pts)
2. Tyson (35 pts)
3. Monica (33 pts)
4. Brad (1.5 pts)
5. Rachel (0 pts)

AhhhhFUCKthat: 79.5 pts
1. John (6 pts)
2. Laura B. (16 pts)
3. Candice (4.5 pts)
4. Gervase (39 pts)
5. Ciera (14 pts)

Mind Under Matter: 60.5 points
1. Katie (12 pts)
2. Hayden (16 pts)
3. Colton (-2 pts)
4. Kat (14 pts)
5. Tina (20.5 pts)

Power Rankings:

1. MooMe - While this was a potentially devastating episode for MooMe, they didn't actually lose anyone. We'll have to wait & see how it plays out next week to actually measure the level of devastation. Both players are contenders & have either the idol or the muscle to have a couple of immunities going into the upcoming tribal councils. I suspect that they both end up at final tribal despite this

2. AhhhhFUCKthat - This episode certainly proves that Gervase doesn't have much self-awareness. I was shocked to hear him say he thinks he can beat Tyson at final tribal. Is he paying attention at all? This team might have been renamed to Willfully Oblivious had Ciera not switched votes. Still, AndBag has 2 players in the game, both of whom are making moves & strategizing (aka Anti-Katies).

3. Mind Under Matter - Go Hayden!! He finally made a move & it saved butt! I've been happy to see him continue to try & take control of the game over the past couple of weeks. He's had a couple of fails that have taken out his buddies, but he's still in the game & looking to be Tyson's biggest threat in the game right now. Keep it up, man! And Tina, please do NOT wuss out & not compete against your daughter. You are better than that, lady.

4. 51st State - Laura M must come back from RI if Doug & Bri are going to have a chance in this game. But it'd be awesome if she did & saved Ciera et al just at the crucial moment. If that happens they should all start calling her SuperMom.


Douche of the Week:

Hard to pick a DOW this week, but I decided on Ciera for not figuring out that she couldn't ride coattails to the finale sooner.